Get To The Chopper

Walking Through The Wire (Week 3 Edition)

2011-09-20T11:42:00.002-04:00

Here’s the deal. I’m not a fan of the straight “Waiver Wire” column. It’s impossible to know who is available in your league and what your roster is like. Unless of course, I’m you. That’s your job. You’re not called a “fantasy owner” for nothing.

So I’m just going to walk you through my thought process as I go through the waiver wire in a couple of my leagues. I’m not telling you to do the same thing, but you should have a process. You can’t blindly cut somebody for the player who scored the most points last week. There’s a bit more to it then that. (That’s what she said!)

Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster, Denarius Moore or Eric Decker

I’ve got Arian Foster on a team that I drafted before his injury. I haven’t really caught a break and I’m 0-2. Now what? Due to my poor record, I have the first waiver claim this week. The question is, who do I pick up?

First off, this is a standard league with a RB/WR flex. No PPR. So I would probably go with Jones over McCluster. But I’m really hesitant to roll with any Chiefs right now. Whoever I pick-up will probably have to start for me in Week 3. Needless to say I’m not jumping up and down about starting Thomas Jones at San Diego.

It’s interesting to note that this league is hosted by CBS Sports. Dexter McCluster is listed as a WR and kick/punt return TD’s do NOT count for the player.

Now I also have to balance possible value for the rest of the season. Eric Decker should be in the starting lineup for the Broncos going forward. Denarius Moore already might be the best Raiders WR, but who knows if he starts when Jacoby Ford and Heyward-Bey return.

In a PPR league I would go another way. But in this case, I feel like I have to pick up Thomas Jones. I really want to go with my gut and pick up McCluster anyway. But this is a standard league and Jones looks like the best bet to score a TD. Well, if the Chiefs can ever score one.

Fred Davis or Tony Gonzalez

I wound up with Brandon Pettigrew in this league and I dropped him in Week 2 for Tony Gonzalez. The Eagles are historically bad against the TE. Too bad Kevin Boss still isn’t on the Giants. I had planned on just streaming a TE with a good match-up in Week 3. But Tony G has looked good enough to consider keeping around. Or has he? Gonzalez is really the only player on the Falcons offense right now that looks really good. Everybody else is just slightly out of sync.

I’m really trying to talk myself into Gonzalez here. And why not? He’s safer. If there’s such a thing. I’m just not sure if we’re writing off Chris Cooley too soon. If Cooley gets somewhat healthy, he could certainly cut into the number of targets Fred Davis is getting right now.

Standard league. Non-PPR. And I just lost Jamaal Charles. I feel like Davis is the “Swing For The Fences” pick here. Davis could finish as a top-7 TE, even in a standard league. Gonzalez feels like he will finish safely in the 10-to-12 range for TE’s.

There are a few decent TE options on the wire beside Davis. Not to mention that everybody else already has a decent TE. So I’m going to hang onto Gonzalez, at least for the moment. If I make any trade involving a TE, odds are other owners will value him more than Davis. Plus I do like Tony G vs. the Bucs this week.

Denarius Moore or Dexter McCluster

Again McCluster is listed as a WR. This is a standard, non-PPR league. But it’s a traditional 2 RB, 3 WR lineup. I’m pretty much set, but I have a rotating roster spot that I can burn. The waiver wire order resets every week, so there’s no point in holding on to a waiver claim priority.

So McCluster or Moore? I think I’m scared. I just considered the fact that I might rather have the Raider because I trust their offense more. Scary thought, right? I think I am going with Moore here. He was a training camp and preseason star. Not to mention he would be an excellent complement to Jacoby Ford. If McCluster somehow wound up as the starting RB for the Chiefs, he would be an amazing value at WR. But I can’t see that happening unless Thomas Jones AND LeRon McClain both go down.

I’m more likely to use Moore as a WR3 than McCluster. I already have a good team. So I’m going with Moore here. Who knows, if he blows up again in Week 3 he might have some trade value.

Marion Barber & Bernard Scott

These are two players that I’ve had on a couple of my teams. These are the types of players that I’m cutting at this point in the season. Barber is still injured and Cedric Benson looks as good and as healthy as he’s ever going to. So I’ll move on to a new lottery ticket. I’d rather have Issac Redman, Javon Ringer or Kendall Hunter. Not to mention guys like Delone Carter are still out there on waiver wires. Remember, you’re shopping for:

Skills/Talent
Opportunity

You’re not going to find a player with both. If there is a player available with an opportunity (ie: a role on offense) grab him first. After that grab the most talented players with the easiest path to opportunity.

Eric Decker, Roy Helu or DeMarco Murray

Now we’re in a PPR league with a RB/WR flex. In this format, I’m picking up Eric Decker first. When Dez Bryant went down last week I had to start Jacoby Jones. I’d certainly rather have Decker than Jones, especially since it looks like Kevin Walter will return in Week 3.

But Murray or Helu? That’s a pretty good one. I’ve got a theory here, but with very little empirical evidence. Do you care? I hope not. This is fantasy football, not CSI.

Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett HATES Tashard Choice. And Choice hasn’t helped himself. He’s been a decent receiver but he’s not looked good running the football. The Cowboys drafted DeMarco Murray for a reason. Felix Jones hasn’t looked great (albeit against two pretty good run defenses) so far this season. Murray could get a shot at a significant role in the Cowboys offense.
And then there’s Evil Running Back Scientist Mike Shanahan. This job looks like it’s all Tim Hightower’s right now, correct? That will change at some point. Hightower has reminded everybody that he can only get what’s blocked for him. And he likes to fumble. Roy Helu looked very good in Week 2, and at the end of the preseason. So what gives? Ryan Torain. Yep. Him. Again. If Hightower were to be injured, I think it would be Torain who got his carries while Helu remains in a complementary role. Could Torain then get hurt? Of course, he probably will. Doesn’t every running back these days?

Quite simply I feel that Helu is two injuries away from real fantasy relevance. Murray is only one injury away and it may have already happened. Stay tuned.

Yeah, I know that nothing is more boring than listening to a guy talk about his fantasy teams. But I think a lot of owners will have similar decisions about similar players this week. You’re trying to figure out if either Eric Decker or Denarius Moore is this year’s Steve Johnson. And they very well could be. Or you could be cutting them as soon as the bye weeks hit. Therein, as they say, lies the rub.

I, like the rest of the Internet, am on Twitter

I Am So Smart! S-M-R-T! (Week 1 Edition)

2011-09-13T18:58:00.002-04:00

We learned stuff from Week 1 right? Don’t let any amount of beer, chicken wings, blackjack or Ladies of the Night distract you. That’s why you pay all that money for your big TV and the Sunday Ticket. Sure we learned stuff that we already knew. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are good. Kerry Collins is not. So what did we learn?

You don’t waste an early draft pick on a kicker or D/ST. I say it every year. In my main league, the Steelers were the 32nd ranked D/ST with -3 points. The first kicker drafted was Nate Kaeding. He tore his ACL on the opening kickoff and is out for the season. But that’s ok. Because THERE’S ALWAYS A KICKER OR D/ST ON THE WAIVER WIRE! Unless you play in a very deep league, in which case, what do you need me for? You must be pretty good at this already.
Going into this season I tried to figure out what the effects of the lockout would be on the actual NFL games. In the end I figured that there would be a ton of injuries and that offenses would struggle more than defenses after such a long period of inactivity. I got the injuries thing right. But after one week it looks like the offenses are way ahead of the defenses for the most part. Perhaps the new limitations on padded practices have had an effect. Or it could be that defenses generally play more rookies and younger players who really needed the off-season programs to get them ready.
Maybe this kickoff thing isn’t a big deal after all. After all of the complaining, it seemed every kick returner was returning kicks from five, six maybe even EIGHT yards deep in the end zone. And they had more success than failures. It was actually kind of exciting watching guys try to return kicks from so deep. It looks like while the length of the average kickoff return might decline, the total number of kickoff returns for TD’s should actually climb.
Punt returners also went wild in Week 1. Some of this has to be attributed to the number of rookies that play on special teams. With so few practices, it’s not surprising that special teams units across the league were struggling.
You wait to draft a quarterback in fantasy football. Sure the Big 5 (Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees & Rivers) were great in Week 1. But so were Cam Netwon, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Rex Grossman. Not to mention Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler and Kevin Kolb. There are ALWAYS quality QB’s available in the middle-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts.
You always start your studs. There were owners out there who tried to get tricky and bench Ray Rice. Not a good idea. When you draft a player (especially in the first few rounds) you are drafting his production for THE ENTIRE SEASON. The only way to ensure that you get that production is to PLAY HIM EVERY WEEK HE IS HEALTHY.
It’s a good idea to handcuff RB’s you draft in the early rounds, if possible and/or practical. Ben Tate and Cadillac Williams stand as Exhibit A and Exhibit B at this point. Good luck fighting the rest of the owners in your league on the waiver wire.
When you’re in a Survivor/Eliminator pool (picking games) don’t get cute in Week 1. Pretty much half of all entries everywhere got eliminated by picking the Chiefs or Browns. Had the Cardinals lost, it would have been closer to 2/3 of entries. Nobody knows very much in Week 1. Go with the best possible team early in the year. Even if that means using the Patriots in Week 1 and the Packers in Week 2.
The Sunday Ticket on Playstation 3 was an excellent idea, poorly executed. Nothing worked correctly until the late games were nearly over, and even then the quality was not nearly what you would hope for $340. Sony and DirecTV acknowledged the problem but it’s unknown if they will compensate customers. If you were affected, use the Google to find out who to contact.
Rookie QB’s are wildly unpredictable. Cam Newton starred in Week 1 and could do so again in Week 2. Or he could literally get you no points. Newton’s running ability should make him safer than most rookie QB’s, but don’t go crazy. He should be owned in all leagues, but if you can sell-high, I would do so.
Ron Jaworski dropped an s-bomb live on Monday Night Football (MNF) and it was great. Can’t we get a football game on HBO or something? Do you have any idea how many f-bombs Gruden would drop if given the chance? Can we at least get a director’s cut with Samuel L. Jackson calling the games. Or Dave Chappelle doing his Samuel Jackson calling the games?
Donovan McNabb did not look good. In a new team, in a new offensive system, he probably shouldn’t have looked very good. But he’s a veteran QB and he looked every bit as bad as Kerry Collins. Both of these guys are going to present problems to their offensive teammates. Well, expect Adrian Peterson. McNabb might be able to keep Percy Harvin relevant while Collins just locks onto Reggie Wayne every play. You can’t go selling the farm yet, especially with the Colts. But it doesn’t look good. I don’t know how you start Austin Collie or Pierre Garcon, much less Michael Jenkins or Visanthe Shiancoe.

Feel free to follow along on the Twitter. More to come as the preparation for Week 2 continues.

It's Not HBO, It's The Wire (Week 2 Edition)

2011-09-13T16:30:00.000-04:00

Welcome to The Wire. It’s Week 2, so it is officially time to start tinkering with your fantasy team. You want to proactive, but you also don’t want to overreact. Now before we start picking up any players, you need to evaluate your roster.

Do you have any roster space available? This could be space made available due to injury, or maybe you are carrying a second kicker or D/ST.
Examine your league’s free agency rules. Do you use a waiver wire system or FAAB? Do you have an acquisition limit or acquisition fees?
Do you like to play the match-ups with your kicker or D/ST? If so, those 2 roster spots will be in constant flux for the rest of the season.
Do you have upcoming bye week issues? You generally want to deal with these a week before you actually need to.
Do you have any trade options? It’s almost always better to get something of value for a player as opposed to just cutting him. Sometimes it’s worth trading a player just to keep him away from a team with a lot of FAAB or a high waiver priority.

Okay. You’ve checked out your roster. Now if you feel that you don’t have any roster spots, that DOES NOT mean you shouldn’t see who is available on the waiver wire. You may find a player that you like more than a player who is on your current team, even if you don’t want to cut anybody. You want to acquire the most valuable players possible, even if you don’t have an immediate use for them. The players we are looking at should be available in at least 50% of fantasy leagues.

Now, onto The Wire, Week 2 Edition. (Players listed in no particular order)

CHAD HENNE - Henne looked as good as he ever has in his NFL career on Monday night vs. the Patriots. He’s worth adding in all 2-QB leagues and leagues with 14+ teams. Just don’t throw him into your lineup just yet.
CAM NEWTON - Newton is worth adding in all leagues. He obviously won’t pass for 400+ yards every week, but his upside is obvious. Again, don’t go throwing him into your lineups, but he is going have value in fantasy this year.
RYAN FITZPATRICK - Fitzpatrick was extremely efficient and threw for 4 TDs. Fitzpatrick should be owned in leagues with 12+ teams and might be worth starting in Week 2 at home vs the Raiders.
REX GROSSMAN - Grossman had an excellent game, but he was facing a Giants defense decimated by injury, missing over half of their starters. Grossman is worth adding as a QB2 in leagues with 14+ teams. Grossman should be a decent fantasy starter this week at home against an Arizona defense that got shredded by Cam Newton in Week 1.

BEN TATE - Even if Arian Foster returns in Week 2, Tate should be owned in all leagues. Tate will be one of the most valuable handcuff RB’s and may even have flex value some weeks with Foster healthy. If he’s out there, scoop him up, even if you have to cut somebody you don’t want to.
CADILLAC WILLIAMS - Cadillac looked excellent filling in for an injured Steven Jackson, but the Eagles defense will be one of the worst in the league against the run. Jackson owners should add Cadillac, as should owners in leagues with 12+ teams. He should be worth using as a flex option in PPR leagues against the Giants in Week 2.
DARREN SPROLES - This is an add for owners in PPR leagues that award points for return yardage. If you are in one of these type of leagues, Sproles should be your #1 waiver claim. He doesn’t carry much value in other formats with Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas healthy.
DEXTER MCCLUSTER - McCluster is especially interesting as he might have WR eligibility in your league. Make sure you know that before picking him up. He looks like he could be the 3rd down back for the Chiefs as well as the handcuff for Jamaal Charles. He’s worth adding in PPR leagues with 12+ teams.
DEJI KARIM - Karim is now the handcuff for Maurice Jones-Drew. He produced 14 carries and 3 catches in Week 1. It looks like he will get some work every week in addition to being the handcuff to MJD. He’s worth adding in PPR leagues with 14+ teams.

ERIC DECKER, JACOBY JONES & RANDALL COBB - These players should be added in PPR leagues with 12+ teams that award points for return yardage. They will struggle to maintain fantasy value in other formats. Both players have WR’s above them on the depth chart ahead of them with injury issues right now. That could give Decker, Jones & Cobb a short-term boost in value over the next couple of games.
BRANDON GIBSON, MIKE SIMS-WALKER & GREG SALAS - Danny Amendola may have dodged a season-ending injury, but he still should be out until at least Week 5. Nobody really knows exactly who is going to take on Amendola’s role of being Sam Bradford’s favorite target. My money is on Brandon Gibson, but Mike Sims-Walker might get the first shot. Salas is worth an add in leagues with 14+ teams where Gibson and Sims-Walker are already owned.
EARLY DOUCET - He got lucky racking up over 100 yards and a TD on only 3 targets. He’s not worth adding unless you’re in a very deep league and have a roster spot to burn.
JABAR GAFFNEY - Here we go again. Gaffney will probably not amount to more than a WR4 at best in PPR leagues. But he’s pry worth adding in deeper PPR leagues if you need some depth at WR. He could prove to be a decent bye week fill-in.
NATE BURLESON - Burleson has vacillated between being underrated and overrated throughout his career. It looks like it’s an underrated year this season. Burleson could be a PPR WR3 in the mold of Davone Bess and should be owned in PPR leagues with 12+ teams. At least as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy.
DEVERY HENDERSON - We’re always cautious on Henderson because he is a notorious “Boom or Bust” player. And Week 1 was a “Boom” week. But Marques Colston is out for at least a month and Lance Moore could be out for Week 2 and even longer. As long as that is the case, Henderson is worth starting in deeper fantasy leagues, especially those that award points for long-yardage plays or TD’s.
MOHAMED MASSAQUOI - Yep, him again. It’s just as hard to get excited about Massaquoi as it is to spell his name. But he’s the lead WR for the Browns and should be owned in leagues with 14+ teams. He’s still an excellent deep threat, it’s just a matter of Colt McCoy being able to get the ball to him down-field.

AARON HERNANDEZ - How is this guy available in so many leagues? Even if you can’t play him (say you own Gates, Witten, etc) you need to pick him up. Especially if you can trade in your league. He’s either Tom Brady’s #2 or #3 target. Either way, you want him on your team and not somebody else’s.
SCOTT CHANDLER - Yeah, we’re pretty sure that Week 1 was a fluke. But you never know. In leagues with 14+ teams and deep benches, Chandler might be worth a roster stash if you have the space.
FRED DAVIS - We’ve all known that Davis was a good fantasy TE for a long time. He’s thrived whenever he’s replaced Chris Cooley. The Redskins used a 2-TE set on 80% of their offensive plays in Week 1 and have indicated that they intend to continue to do so. If Davis is on the field that much, he could post low-end TE1 numbers, even with Cooley healthy. That makes him worth adding in any league where you need some depth at TE with decent upside.
DUSTIN KELLER - Sure he was on a milk carton for the 2nd half of last season. But he’s Mark Sanchez’s safety blanket and he sees a decent amount of red-zone targets. He’s not an every-week starter right now. But he could very well finish as a top-12 TE. He’s worth adding in most leagues in you need depth at TE or even a spot starter.
JERMAINE GRESHAM - Gresham is another high draft pick that everybody knows has talent. In Week 1 Gresham looked to be no worse than the #2 option in the Bengals passing game. That’s not very sexy, but it should provide him with some nice fantasy numbers, especially in PPR leagues. He’s another guy worth adding if you have any needs at the TE position.

D/ST (One Week Adds For Week 2)

DALLAS COWBOYS (@ 49ERS)
NEW YORK GIANTS (vs RAMS)
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (vs CARDINALS)
OAKLAND RAIDERS (@ BILLS)
HOUSTON TEXANS (@ DOLPHINS)

K (One Week Adds For Week 2)

JON KASAY
ROBBIE GOULD
MATT BRYANT
SHAUN SUISHAM
JASON HANSON

Now I’m sure that I missed somebody in your league. Sorry, that’s the deal with fantasy football. Almost every league is different. If you know of somebody I missed, call me out on the Twitter. I’m already aware of all of the stuff I’ve already screwed up, but feel free to remind me. Good luck to all.

Thank You Ms. Cleo (2011 NFL Edition)

2011-09-04T18:27:00.000-04:00

“Well would you jump off the Brooklyn Bridge if such and such did?” Bet you heard that from a parent or adult at some point when you were a kid. Maybe it was jumping off a cliff, or stepping front of a train. The point was the same. You shouldn’t always follow the crowd. Of course now, that’s precisely what we do. Down to the point of literally “following” people on Twitter.

The stock market follows the hot lead. Fantasy sports players follow the hot pick-up. Kids in school want the stuff they see on TV. So don’t fool yourself, jumping off of the Brooklyn Bridge is exactly what most people do. Why? Because everybody else is doing it.

I figure you just have to be smart enough to evaluate the situation. Maybe everybody is jumping off of the Brooklyn Bridge because you receive a million dollars for doing so. Go ahead and jump, just bring some scuba gear and a parachute.

Why all the nonsense? Because I’m going to write something that’s been written thousands of times in the past few weeks. Not usually a big fan of jumping on the bandwagon. But I figure that so many people are writing this piece because people really enjoy reading it. So without further ado…..

My Bold/Crazy/Wild Predictions/Prognostications/Guesses

AKA

Thank You Ms. Cleo

I’m going to say something about each NFL team. These are things I believe WILL happen this season. Now would I lay even money on these propositions? Probably not. But I’m not laying even money to bet on any team to win the Super Bowl, why should this be any different.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Larry Fitzgerald will lead the NFL in receptions
LaRod Stephens-Howling will total over 1,000 yards from scrimmage

ATLANTA FALCONS

Michael Turner will fail to record 1,200 yards or 10 TD’s
Julio Jones will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Ray Rice will be the #1 fantasy RB in PPR leagues
Lee Evans will exceed 1,000 yards receiving and 6 TD’s

BUFFALO BILLS

Steve Johnson exceeds 1,200 yards receiving
The Bills fail to win 5 games

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Neither DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart finish as a top-15 RB in fantasy leagues
Steve Smith 1.0 fails to exceed 1,000 yards or 6 TD’s
Greg Olsen catches more than 60 passes

CHICAGO BEARS

No Bears WR records 1,000 yards or 6 TD’s
Mario Barber scores 8 or more TD’s

CINCINNATI BENGALS

No Bengals WR exceeds 900 yards receiving
Cedric Benson fails to rush for 1,000 yards or score 6 TD’s
Jordan Shipley scores more fantasy points than AJ Green or Jerome Simpson

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Peyton Hillis shakes off the Madden Curse to record 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 10+ TD’s
TE Evan Moore posts surprising totals of 600+ yards and 5 TD’s

DALLAS COWBOYS

Tony Romo finishes as a top-5 fantasy QB
Miles Austin and Dez Bryant both exceed 1,000 yards receiving and 6 TD’s
Felix Jones plays at least 14 games and posts solid RB2 numbers, especially in PPR leagues
Jason Witten finishes outside of the top-7 at TE in standard fantasy leagues

DENVER BRONCOS

Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee combine for over 2,000 yards rushing and 15+ TD’s
Kyle Orton finishes the season as the starting QB, starting all 16 games

DETROIT LIONS

Matthew Stafford starts at least 13 games
Calvin Johnson finishes the year as the #1 WR in standard fantasy leagues
Jahvid Best does NOT lead the Lions in rushing yards

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Greg Jennings struggles until Jermichael Finley gets hurt, then puts up WR1 numbers the rest of the season.
Jermichael Finley fails to play in at least 10 games
Jordy Nelson has more yards, receptions and TD’s than James Jones or Donald Driver

HOUSTON TEXANS

Arian Foster plays in at least 14 games and finishes as a top-10 RB in fantasy leagues.
Andre Johnson misses at least 2 games and still finishes as a top-5 fantasy WR
Derrick Ward records more carries than Ben Tate

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Peyton Manning starts 16 games. He struggles for the first month, before putting up MVP-caliber numbers for the last 12 games.
Pierre Garcon finishes with more fantasy points than Austin Collie
Joseph Addai fails to start 12 games

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Maurice Jones-Drew plays in at least 14 games and finishes as a top-12 fantasy RB
Mike Thomas exceeds 1,000 yards receiving
Mercedes Lewis fails to score at least 6 TD’s

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Dwayne Bowe fails to finish as a top-12 fantasy WR
Jamaal Charles does not finish as a top-7 RB in standard fantasy leagues
Matt Cassel doesn’t finish as a top-20 fantasy QB

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Daniel Thomas scores more fantasy points than Reggie Bush, despite Reggie Bush starting more games
Brandon Marshall finishes as a top-5 WR in PPR leagues
Davone Bess finishes as a top-30 WR in PPR leagues

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Adrian Peterson continues to dominate and finishes as a top-3 fantasy RB
Percy Harvin finishes as a top-15 WR in PPR leagues
Donovan McNabb starts at least 14 games

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

No Patriots RB finishes as a top-20 fantasy option
Both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez finish as top-12 fantasy TE’s
Chad Ochocinco fails to record 1,000 yards or 6 TD’s

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Pierre Thomas scores more fantasy points than Mark Ingram in PPR leagues
Robert Meachem leads the Saints WR’s in fantasy points
Jimmy Graham finishes as a top-7 option at TE
The Saints D/ST is a top-10 fantasy unit

NEW YORK GIANTS

Brandon Jacobs scores more fantasy points than Ahmad Bradshaw in standard fantasy leagues
Mario Manningham finishes as a top-20 WR in PPR leagues
Hakeem Nicks is a top-5 WR in fantasy leagues

NEW YORK JETS

Shonn Greene fails to score 10 TD’s
Santonio Holmes is a top-12 WR in standard leagues
Plaxico Burress fails to finish in the top-30 at WR in fantasy leagues

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Darren McFadden finishes as a top-7 RB in fantasy leagues
Michael Bush scores at least 10 TD’s
Jacoby Ford exceeds 1,000 yards receiving

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Mike Vick fails to finish as a top-5 fantasy QB
LeSean McCoy finishes as a top-5 RB in PPR leagues
Jeremy Maclin scores more fantasy points than DeSean Jackson
Jason Avant scores more fantasy points than Steve Smith 2.0

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Issac Redman starts at least 4 games at RB
Mike Wallace leads the NFL in receiving yards
Emmanuel Sanders scores more fantasy points than Antonio Brown or Hines Ward

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Philip Rivers finishes as the #1 fantasy QB
Mike Tolbert has more fantasy points than Ryan Matthews
Vincent Jackson is a top-7 fantasy WR

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Sidney Rices fails to finish as a top-30 fantasy WR
Marshawn Lynch fails to exceed 1,200 total yards or 6 total TD’s

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

No 49ers WR finishes in the top-30 in fantasy leagues
Vernon Davis finishes as a top-3 fantasy TE
Kendall Hunter starts at least 3 games at RB

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Sam Bradford finishes as a top-12 fantasy QB
Danny Amendola finishes as a top-20 WR in PPR leagues
Steven Jackson finishes as a top-10 fantasy RB

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

LeGarrette Blount finishes as a top-12 fantasy RB in standard leagues
Kellen Winslow is a top-5 fantasy TE
Dezmon Briscoe scores more fantasy points than Arrelious Benn

TENNESSEE TITANS

Chris Johnson fails to start at least two games due to injury
TE Jared Cook leads the Titans in receptions
Kenny Britt fails to start 12 games at WR
Matt Hasselbeck starts at least 13 games at QB

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

At least 3 RB’s start games for the Redskins
Tim Hightower finishes with the most fantasy points among Redskins RB’s but does not finish the season as the starting RB
Santana Moss does not finish as a top-20 WR in standard leagues

See? Not particularly bold overall, but these thoughts have certainly had a part in shaping my fantasy teams. It’s probably not a bad idea for you to make a list like that of your own. It could help. Besides, everybody else is doing it.

Join the crowd, follow along on the Twitter.

Running Back Handcuffs

2011-09-04T12:09:00.000-04:00

UPDATED: September 4, 2011
NOTE: Starting RB is Goal line RB if none is listed

ARIZONA CARDINALS
STARTING RB - Beanie Wells
3RD DOWN RB - LaRod Stephens-Howling
HANDCUFF - LaRod Stephens-Howling

ATLANTA FALCONS
STARTING RB - Michael Turner
3RD DOWN RB - Jason Snelling
HANDCUFF 1 - Jason Snelling
HANDCUFF 2 - Jacquizz Rodgers

BALTIMORE RAVENS
STARTING RB - Ray Rice
3RD DOWN RB - Ray Rice
HANDCUFF - Ricky Williams

BUFFALO BILLS
STARTING RB - Fred Jackson
3RD DOWN RB - CJ Spiller
HANDCUFF - CJ Spiller

CAROLINA PANTHERS
STARTING RB - DeAngelo Williams
3RD DOWN RB - DeAngelo Williams
HANDCUFF 1 - Jonathan Stewart
HANDCUFF 2 - Mike Goodson
GOAL LINE RB - Jonathan Stewart

CHICAGO BEARS
STARTING RB - Matt Forte
3RD DOWN RB - Matt Forte
HANDCUFF - Marion Barber
GOAL LINE RB - Mario Barber

CINCINNATI BENGALS
STARTING RB - Cedric Benson
3RD DOWN RB - Bernard Scott
HANDCUFF - Bernard Scott

CLEVELAND BROWNS
STARTING RB - Peyton Hills
3RD DOWN RB - Peyton Hillis
HANDCUFF - Montario Hardesty

DALLAS COWBOYS
STARTING RB - Felix Jones
3RD DOWN RB - Felix Jones
HANDCUFF 1 - DeMarco Murray
HANDCUFF 2 - Tashard Choice

DENVER BRONCOS
STARTING RB -Knowshon Moreno
3RD DOWN RB - Knowshon Moreno
HANDCUFF - Willis McGahee
GOAL LINE RB - Willis McGahee

DETROIT LIONS
STARTING RB - Jahvid Best
3RD DOWN RB - Jahvid Best
HANDCUFF 1 - Jerome Harrison
HANDCUFF 2 - Maurice Morris
HANDCUFF 3 - Aaron Brown

GREEN BAY PACKERS
STARTING RB - Ryan Grant
3RD DOWN RB - James Starks
HANDCUFF - James Starks

HOUSTON TEXANS
STARTING RB - Arian Foster
3RD DOWN RB - Arian Foster
HANDCUFF 1 - Derrick Ward
HANDCUFF 2 - Ben Tate
HANDCUFF 3 - Steve Slaton

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
STARTING RB - Joseph Addai
3RD DOWN RB - Joseph Addai
HANDCUFF 1 - Delone Carter
HANDCUFF 2 - Donald Brown

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
STARTING RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
3RD DOWN RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
HANDCUFF 1 - Deji Karim
HANDCUFF 2 - DuJuan Harris

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
STARTING RB - Jamaal Charles
3RD DOWN RB - Dexter McCluster
HANDCUFF - Thomas Jones
GOAL LINE RB - Thomas Jones

MIAMI DOLPHINS
STARTING RB - Reggie Bush
3RD DOWN RB - Reggie Bush
HANDCUFF 1 - Daniel Thomas
HANDCUFF 2 - Lex Hilliard
GOAL LINE RB - Daniel Thomas

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
STARTING RB - Adrian Peterson
3RD DOWN RB - Adrian Peterson
HANDCUFF - Toby Gerhart

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
STARTING RB - BenJarvus Green-Ellis
3RD DOWN RB - Danny Woodhead
HANDCUFF 1 - Stevan Ridley
HANDCUFF 2 - Shane Vereen

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
STARTING RB - Mark Ingram
3RD DOWN RB - Darren Sproles
HANDCUFF - Pierre Thomas

NEW YORK GIANTS
STARTING RB - Ahmad Bradshaw
3RD DOWN RB - Ahmad Bradshaw
HANDCUFF - Brandon Jacobs
GOAL LINE RB - Brandon Jacobs

NEW YORK JETS
STARTING RB - Shonn Greene
3RD DOWN RB - LaDainian Tomlinson
HANDCUFF 1 - LaDainian Tomlinson
HANDCUFF 2 - Joe McKnight

OAKLAND RAIDERS
STARTING RB - Darren McFadden
3RD DOWN RB - Darren McFadden
HANDCUFF - Michael Bush
GOAL LINE BACK - Michael Bush

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
STARTING RB - LeSean McCoy
3RD DOWN RB - LeSean McCoy
HANDCUFF - Ronnie Brown

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
STARTING RB - Rashard Mendenhall
3RD DOWN RB - Mwelde Moore
HANDCUFF - Isaac Redman

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
STARTING RB - Ryan Matthews
3RD DOWN RB - Mike Tolbert
HANDCUFF - Mike Tolbert
GOAL LINE RB - Mike Tolbert

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
STARTING RB - Marshawn Lynch
3RD DOWN RB - Justin Forsett
HANDCUFF 1 - Justin Forsett
HANDCUFF 2 - Leon Washington

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
STARTING RB - Frank Gore
3RD DOWN RB - Frank Gore
HANDCUFF 1 - Kendall Hunter
HANDCUFF 2 - Anthony Dixon

ST. LOUIS RAMS
STARTING RB - Steven Jackson
3RD DOWN RB - Jerious Norwood
HANDCUFF - Cadillac Williams

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
STARTING RB - LeGarrette Blount
3RD DOWN RB - Earnest Graham
HANDCUFF 1 - Kregg Lumpkin
HANDCUFF 2 - Allen Bradford

TENNESSEE TITANS
STARTING RB - Chris Johnson
3RD DOWN RB - Chris Johnson
HANDCUFF 1 - Javon Ringer
HANDCUFF 2 - Jamie Harper

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
STARTING RB - Tim Hightower
3RD DOWN RB - Tim Hightower
HANDCUFF 1 - Roy Helu
HANDCUFF 2 - Ryan Torain

As always you can follow us on the Twitter. You know, to make sure that you don’t take the left turn at Albuquerque.

Last Minute Fantasy Football Draft Wisdom

2011-09-02T18:45:00.001-04:00

So here we are. You did it. You survived the lockout, the hold-outs and the injury scares. This is the Main Event. The Big Weekend. It’s time for your Draft, with a Capital D, no less. By now you should have done some prep work and have a decent plan for your draft. If for some reason this is the first thing you are reading about fantasy football, don’t panic. Keep on reading, and get yourself a solid set of rankings before the draft. (For free rankings I tend to use FFToolbox, Yahoo, or CBS)

Let’s start with the Online Draft vs the Live Draft

ADVICE THAT APPLIES TO EITHER DRAFT FORMAT

Go easy on the booze (if applicable). Being the first owner to get to beer number seven might seem pretty cool, it will have adverse affects on your fantasy team. Trust me. Instead, just don’t start drinking until a half hour before the draft. And try to get all the owners to go do shots (tequila) if possible.
I always like to have a list of my own rankings in front of me, whether the draft is live or online. That way I can cross each player drafted off myself. It helps me to always know who is available. Sometimes if you’re just looking at a computer screen or draft board, you can miss stuff.
Always have a different set of rankings then the rest of your draft. Players draft positions are ALWAYS influenced by the default rankings, whether online or handed out at your draft. There was a phenomenal piece done by Adam Levitan over at Rotoworld about this. Well worth your time.
Always be ready with the next three players you want to draft. Because the owners drafting in front of you are going to draft the players you want. Constantly. You do not want to have it be your pick and you have no idea who to select with only 60 seconds to decide. Again, it helps to have your own rankings on paper in front of you for this.
Do not be shook or influenced by a single word anybody else says at the draft. The constant chatter about who likes who, injuries recent role changes? It’s all crap. Well, most of it is. Smart owners aren’t giving anything away before the draft. It’s a fine line to walk, if you just talk up players you don’t want, smart owners will figure out that you’re avoiding those players. Talk about the guys you like and the dumb owners will know who you’re targeting. I personally just spend the entire pre-draft emphasizing the importance of kickers. Sometimes I throw in “Jeff George just signed with X” or something of that nature. Something that’s pretty obviously phoney and possibly even funny. It’s called deflecting, ask any married guy you know about it.
If you don’t know the rules and scoring settings of your league by heart, print them out or pull that screen up. You need to know about EVERY rule or scoring category there is. Otherwise you’re going to miss something.

ONLINE DRAFTS

Arrive at the draft room early. Add all of your target players to your queue so you will always be ready to draft. Use your other rankings list to spot players that are lower or higher in the online default rankings.
Keep the chat room reasonable. Don’t be that Internet Tough Guy who goes off on a guy about his mother because he just drafted Felix Jones. Some trash talk is great, but don’t get personal.
This might sound stupid, but if you think there’s any chance you might lose power or Internet access, try to have an alternative ready. Most smartphones can handle draft software these days.
Focus on your draft. Don’t be playing poker, checking email or watching TV while you are drafting. If you need something on in the background, don’t make it anything that will distract you.
If you’re going to require food and/or beverage, have it ready before the draft starts. Trying to make a mid-draft run to Wawa (7-11, what have you) is draft suicide.

LIVE DRAFTS

Show up on time, sober, with your draft materials and league entry fee. Be ready to draft.
Don’t show up empty-handed. If there is an arrangement where everybody pitches in a couple bucks for food and drink, fine. But if it’s a free for all, at least show up with a case of beer, some 2-liters of soda, some chips, something. (Unless you’re drafting at bar. In that case you’re good) Somebody is having ya’ll (y’all ?) in his crib and will have to clean up after you slobs. At least be decent and bring a little something to the table.
Don’t leave your draft material laying around before the draft. You work hard or paid good money for this stuff. Don’t let some unprepared owner piggyback off of what you’ve done.
Do a little fishing. There are probably some other owners with teams in multiple leagues. Ask them if they’ve draft already and how they liked their draft. Usually NOBODY wants to hear about YOUR fantasy team, so when somebody asks, get ready for an earful. Finding out who other owners have already drafted and what they thought of those drafts should give you an idea of what they might do in your draft.

So there. All the philosophical nonsense is out of the way. Now for some honest-to-God drafting strategy.

Don’t draft a kicker until the last round. And I will guarantee you that one of these guys is available: (NOTE: Saints K Garrett Hartley out 6-10 weeks)

Matt Bryant
Alex Henery
Rob Bironas
Jon Kasay (Will be the Saints kicker for at least 6 weeks)
Jason Hanson

There’s not a fantasy defense worth reaching for. The Steelers, Jets, Packers, Ravens, Patriots, Giants, Eagles and Bears ALL have weaknesses. And guess what, there are still 24 other defenses to choose from. I personally like to play the match-ups with my defense and most weeks I wind up selecting from the waiver wire. This works far better than you think. Here are some other defenses worth drafting in the 2nd to last round of your draft:

Atlanta Falcons
San Diego Chargers
New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals (Open season vs CAR, @WAS, @SEA)
Detroit Lions

This is the year to wait on QB. There are so many QB’s with high-upside that will be available later in your draft. If one of the Big 5 (Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Brees, Vick) drops to Round 5, great. But don’t go reaching for a QB in the first four rounds. (Only exception is 14+ team leagues when there is an early QB run). Just look at the QB’s who will be available in Round 5 or later.

Peyton Manning
Tony Romo
Ben Roethlisberger
Matt Schaub
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Sam Bradford
Josh Freeman
Joe Flacco
Eli Manning
Jay Cutler

That’s 11 LEGITIMATE starting QB’s. Granted, some are better than others. But in 10 and 12-team leagues, you’re going to be able to get 2 of these QB’s after you’ve filled in the rest of your starting lineup. Not to mention there are still MORE QB’s with some upside available:

Matt Cassel
Kevin Kolb
Kyle Orton
Donovan McNabb
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jason Campbell
Colt McCoy
Cam Newton
Mark Sanchez

Rodgers is going to be great. Vick could be transcendent. But you can ABSOLUTELY find excellent QB options later in drafts. There is NOT this kind of depth at RB or WR.

Everything I just said about QB’s? It applies just the same to TE’s. (In FFPC leagues where TE’s get 1.5 points-per-reception, this is different) There are the Big 5 TE’s:

Antonio Gates
Jermichael Finley
Vernon Davis
Dallas Clark
Jason Witten

It’s not like any of these guys are completely rock-solid. They all have some question marks. So it’s probably not worth reaching for them when you can draft:

Jimmy Graham
Kellen Winslow
Aaron Hernandez
Rob Gronkowski
Greg Olsen
Jared Cook
Mercedes Lewis
Zach Miller
Chris Cooley
Dustin Keller
Tony Gonzalez
Brandon Pettigrew

Here we have 12 guys that should all be pretty decent starting options. Again, they won’t be Antonio Gates. But there sure are a lot of options. Enough to draft two if you have the space. Or enough that you should be able to add a pretty decent TE off of the waiver wire later on if necessary.

If you haven’t gotten the idea yet, it’s all about the RB’s and WR’s early in your draft. I’m pry taking 5 RB/WR in my first five picks.

Get your starting WR’s early. Whether you have to start two or three, you need to get them early on. After about WR30, the position just falls off of a cliff. Unless an excellent RB is available in Round 2, I’m pry taking a WR there. I would be aiming to get 2 WR between Rounds 2-4.

Get yourself a RB in the first round. There are some exceptions where picking at the end of Round 1 in a PPR draft, you might take a WR in Round 1. But if you do that, be ready to take a RB in Round 2. You pretty much HAVE to walk out of the first two rounds with a RB. You might have to deal the warts of a Frank Gore, Steven Jackson or Matt Forte. But you need a RB that’s going to get the majority of the carries. You HAVE to have at least one.

After you get your starting lineup filled, swing for the fences. Once the RB’s with any weekly value are gone, start picking up the high-upside handcuffs. These guys are just lottery tickets, but you can’t win the lottery without one. If you have to cut one of these guys when the bye weeks start, so be it. These players include:

Kendall Hunter
Delone Carter
Ronnie Brown
Javon Ringer
Rashad Jennings (Check injury status)
Derrick Ward/Ben Tate (Pick your poison, my money is on a split)
Jason Snelling
Toby Gerhart
Jerome Harrison
Marion Barber
Issac Redman
Montario Hardesty

Again, there’s not really any weekly options here. But SOMEBODY is going to get hurt. And if one of these guys gets a shot at the starting job, he’s probably a fantasy starter. You are going to want to draft as many RB’s as possible.
Once you have your starting WR’s draft one or two backups. And that’s it. There are always WR’s that pop up on the waiver wire. I’d grab one “safe” type and one “lottery ticket” type.

That’s it. Good luck to everybody who has their drafts this weekend. I’m out there on the Twitter if you have any draft questions or find out the meaning of the universe. (HINT: It’s 42)

Fantasy Football Draft Prep. Look Ma, No Names!

2011-09-01T17:01:00.001-04:00

Look, if you want rankings and such, there are a million websites all claiming that they know who is going to be better than who. I’ve got some guesses, but anybody who can tell for a fact that he knows who scores the most points out of Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice is just lying. Nobody knows. Should you draft Arian Foster before say Shonn Greene? Absolutely. Put that’s not what we’re here for. This is draft strategy that has nothing to do with targeting specific players.

And before you complain about how long it takes to read this, think about how long it took to write it.

LEAGUE SIZE

League size is one of the first things to consider when planning for your draft. Most leagues I’ve encountered have 8, 10, 12, 14 or 20 teams. Not that there aren’t 18 team leagues or 32 team leagues.

8-TEAM LEAGUES

Seriously, grow some balls and join a real league.

If you do insist on playing in an 8-team league, your draft strategy is simple. Draft as many stud RB’s and WR’s as possible. There will be QB’s and TE’s available all year in an 8-team league. So don’t reach. Why draft Drew Brees if you can pick up Matthew Stafford or Eli Manning?

8-team leagues are strictly “superstar” affairs. There’s probably no need to draft anybody considered a “sleeper”. These leagues are nice for the very casual fantasy player because no injury is really that devastating. There are ALWAYS quality options on the waiver wire in a 8-team league.

10-TEAM LEAGUES

10-team leagues are among the most common league sizes (along with 12-team leagues). While the addition of two teams makes a 10-team league much harder than an 8-teamer, there are still always quality options available on the waiver wire.

You’re focusing solely on high-upside players in a 10-team league. Solid players with no real upside (Derrick Mason was always a poster boy for this) aren’t going to help you in a 10-team league. You want to swing for the fences as much as possible.

Don’t hesitate to make a move. One of the worst mistakes fantasy owners tend to make is over-valuing their own players. There are tons of players on the wire in a 10-team league. Don’t hold onto an Earl Bennett-type while everybody else is picking the waiver wire clean. Odds are nobody else is even going to pickup the guy you drop.

In 10-team leagues, you can usually wait on QB and TE due to the depth of those positions this season. However, should you choose to draft a QB and/or TE early, I would not bother carrying a backup. There will always be decent waiver options at QB and TE in a 10-teamer. Focus on stockpiling RB’s and WR’s with high upside on your bench, not a backup that’s only for bye week or injury purposes.

12-TEAM LEAGUES

Again, adding two teams makes the league appreciably more difficult. The waiver wire options are becoming far less plentiful as we add teams.

Now we’re getting into the level where we will start aiming for some real sleepers and whatnot. Having 12-teams will ensure that all of the top options are drafted at QB and TE. This means that QB’s and TE’s will generally be drafted earlier in 12-team leagues. Plan accordingly.

If you are in a league that allows trading, be ready to wheel in deal. Once you get to 12-teams, you will have owners with legitimate holes on their roster. This creates an environment far more conducive to trading. It’s almost impossible to trade a QB in a 10-team league, because everybody has a really good one. In a 12-team league you finally get to the point where a couple teams have starters with some questions and low-quality backups.

ADP (Average Draft Position) becomes more important. In smaller leagues you can almost feel free to take the players you want on your schedule. Now that we get into a deeper league, you need to plan in greater detail. You should get a feel of when the elite QB’s and TE’s are taken. Never get caught in the end of a run. Just because the last four guys all picked QB’s doesn’t mean that you have to. If you know you can wait and say get Matthew Stafford in Round 8, and you’re cool with that, just take another RB or WR.

In a 12-team league you can justify carrying a backup QB and/or TE if you don’t have an elite option at the position. Or if your elite starter carries above average injury risk.

14-TEAM LEAGUES

Now we’re talkin. You need to be on top of your game in a 14-team league. The waiver wire options will be scarce and owners will pounce early on anybody with some upside.

Now there is a real premium on the elite QB’s and TE’s. Not there’s not a premium on RB’s or WR’s. But in a 14-team league you will often see the elite 6 (7 or 8) QB’s be drafted in the first two rounds. So if you want an elite QB, be ready to take one early.

In a 14-team league, you can start to make some safe, boring-type picks later in your draft. Am I excited at all about Hines Ward, Derrick Mason or Ricky Williams? Not really. Should they be drafted in a 14-team league. Yep. Don’t reach for these players but they can be useful strictly as bye week fill-ins and injury replacements.

Focus on the players with the easiest path to playing time. Once you get into deeper leagues, you’re just speculating on injuries and such. Handcuff running backs behind aging, injury-prone or declining starters can turn into fantasy gold. Very rarely is going with a guy who is the 3rd or 4th RB on his own team worthwhile in fantasy.

Trading becomes even more important in a 14-team league. This is probably the smallest league size where I would consider taking the “2 players” in a 2-for-1 trade, especially early in the season. If you screw up your draft or get hammered by injuries, you need to be proactive. Don’t go shopping around all of your studs to build depth, but if you have a roster hole, do what you have to do to plug it.

20-TEAM LEAGUES

Congratulations, ya’ll (or is it y’all, I never know) are real Men. Ladies, if you play in a 20-team league, challenge your pansy boyfriend to a pissing contest.

Having a stud QB almost becomes a must in this format. Somebody is going to be stuck starting the 20th best QB. It’s a real benefit to have one of the top QB’s when you’re in a league this deep.

Drafting a stud TE is a bit less important, especially if it’s not Antonio Gates. Taking a QB and a TE in the first five (or four) rounds of a 20-team league will leave you with a big hole at RB and/or WR. Go for the QB and wait on bit on the TE. Or do the opposite. Just don’t take both early.

I’d be looking to take a QB in Round 1 or 2, then a TE in Round 8 or 9. Every other pick of mine in the first 10 rounds will be a RB or WR. I’m swinging for upside early while being content to take some “safer” less sexy options later in the draft.

You want to take shots on EVERYBODY in a league this deeper. Your barber just mentioned that the previous customer said something about Clinton Portis being signed? Pick him up. 95% of the time, you’ll just wind up cutting the guy in a week or two when nothing happens. But that other 5% of the time? That’s what wins you leagues. The bottom 3 spots or so of your roster should constantly be in flux.

Information is the key. This is the type of league that rewards the guy who gets a million text message alerts per day on NFL players. Or the guy who has a Twitter list of all the NFL beat writers he can find. You have to stay ahead of the pack in these leagues. You can’t think “oh I’ll just check the league later, I’m sure he’ll still be available.” Because guess what? Chicken butt. Actually, the guy will already be gone. That’s what smart phones are for. If you’re in a 20-team league, and iPhone or Droid should be mandatory. (If you have an iPad, you’re just too cool for me)

Enough about league size, what else ya got? Auction drafts? Auction drafts.

AUCTION DRAFTS

Rule Number 1 - SPEND ALL OF YOUR MONEY! There’s no award for paying $3 for $1 players at the end of the draft. Spend the money on the guys you want, no matter how early they are nominated for bidding.

We’re not really going to do a whole Rule Number thing, you just need to know what the one and only Rule Number 1 is.

I always have a nominating strategy. Early on, I’m throwing out players that I don’t want on my time. For instance, I would nominate Mike Vick right away. Because I certainly won’t pay what he will cost, so he won’t be on my team. I’ll throw out the Steelers D early a lot too. Then once I have met my needs at a position, that’s the position I will nominate. Say I end up with Tom Brady early. I will keep nominating QB’s until everybody has a starter or there are only cheap QB’s left. I want people spending their money on QB’s because I already have one. This way other teams are spending their money on players I have no interest in. That means more players I want are available while other teams have less money to spend. Works for me.

Once you get down to the end of the draft, you can start reaching for your “sleepers” and whatnot. Ideally at this point you have enough money to either bid $2 or $3 if necessary or all teams just have $1 bids left. Be careful about nominating players you hope to get for $1 if there are any teams out there with more than $1 bids left.

I price enforce a bit in my auctions. Price enforcing means that I feel somebody is getting too good of a deal on a player. For instance say Cedric Benson is a $12 player and the current bid is at $6 and it’s “Going Once, Going Twice…”. So I bid $7. And I might go to $9 if the other guy goes to $8. And I don’t even like Benson. But I would take him at $7 and could live with him at $9. Don’t ever price enforce to the point where you’ll be upset if you actually win the player. But don’t let guys get a huge steal if possible. Sometimes other owners are wondering why nobody else is bidding and they just don’t want to be the one to step up.

Pay close attention during your auction draft. Is there one owner who is always price enforcing? Who was the owner who battled you for Felix Jones? Write that down, he would probably be interested in trading for Jones later. Is there a guy who is just waiting and waiting with all of his money? Knowing the other owners is sometimes just as important as knowing the actual players.

FREE AGENT ACQUISITION BUDGETS (FAAB) aka BLIND BIDDING

While we’re on the auction tip, let’s cover the FAAB process. FAAB is just a weekly blind auction for all available players. Each team begins the season with the same free agent budget, usually either $100 or $1000. Each week you target any free agent you might want and you place a bid on him. Say you have $100. We’ll use an example from Week 1 last season. Ryan Grant is lost for the season and his primary backup, Brandon Jackson is a free agent. You can bid as much of that $100 as you want. You can bid it all, but then you can only make $0 bids (if allowed) the rest of the season. Or you could be say $72 and hope that’s enough. But if somebody bids more, you don’t get him. Simple enough?

I’m not a big believer in saving your FAAB budget. You can’t guarantee that a big injury or benching will happen late in the season. So when it happens, go for it. Did Brandon Jackson work out for you last year if you blew your whole FAAB budget on him? Pry not. But who about if you blew your whole FAAB budget on Mike Vick? Pry worked out pretty well didn’t it. Again, there’s no award for having remaining FAAB money at the end of the year.

Make sure you set your claim lists well. Double check the players you intend to drop. Make sure you’ve entered your bid prices correctly. Make conditional bids in case your initial bids aren’t enough to win. Most leagues only run FAAB once a week, so if you’re trying to acquire a player you need to start (usually kicker or a defense) make sure you place enough claims to ensure you have a starter for the upcoming week.

In some keeper leagues with FAAB, the FAAB price you pay for a player becomes his keeper value. If this is the case in your league, make sure you factor that in when considering how much to bid.

KEEPER LEAGUES

First some clarity. Keeper leagues are leagues where 1 or more players can be retained on a team from season-to-season. A dynasty league is a league where every player on every team is retained from season-to-season.

Keeper leagues are difficult to discuss, because each league is completely unique. So these are just some general rules that may or may not apply easily to your league. Most of the time in a keeper league, as a league member you know your league far better than any “expert” so trust your own judgement.

KNOW YOUR RULES. There is nothing more important in a keeper league. How many players can you keep and how long can you keep them for? What is the cost of keeping a player? Does that cost increase each season? If so, by how much? All of these things are things YOU MUST KNOW. No exceptions.

I play to win every season. I won’t consider a trade to solely improve myself for the future until I am mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. It’s a lot less fun than you think to have a whole team of rookies and young players. You might be a great team three years from now, but is losing for three years really worth it? This is a personal preference thing. If it’s a complete toss-up, then I’ll pry take the young guy. Say Josh Freeman instead of Eli Manning. But I’m not taking Sam Bradford over Peyton Manning, keeper or not.

Pay attention to shelf-life. QB’s can be productive for a decade, maybe longer. Most RB’s have four, maybe five good seasons in them. RB’s are more valuable from year-to-year but their value and performance can vary wildly. QB’s and WR’s tend to have more stable value. Point being? Don’t be afraid to trade a quality keeper RB while he’s still quality. If you wait until he hits the cliff, you’re not going to get anything for him. Does that mean trade AP for Mark Ingram right now? Nope. But next year? Maybe rabbit, maybe.

There is no off-season. Part of the fun of keeper and dynasty leagues is that they are open for business year round. You can make trades in April if you’d like. So pay attention and keep your head on a swivel. Especially around free agency and the NFL Draft in April.

IDP (Individual Defensive Player) LEAGUES

Much like keeper leagues, it’s very difficult to discuss IDP leagues, because they are all very different. Most IDP leagues feature defensive players in addition to the usual offensive players. There are however, leagues made up solely of defensive players. The IDP positions are as follows:

DL (Defensive Lineman, can be a DE or DT)
DT (Defensive Tackle)
DE (Defensive End)
LB (Linebacker, can be OLB or MLB)
DB (Defensive Back, can be CB or S)
CB (Cornerback)
S (Safety)

You need to pay attention to your league’s rosters and scoring settings. How many points do you get for sacks, tackles and INT’s? How many defensive players do you start? How did the top-scoring IDP players in your league last year compare to the offensive players? You need to know ALL OF THESE THINGS.

Most leagues utilize a handful of IDP players mixed in with their typical offensive players. In these leagues, there’s almost no need to draft IDP’s before the very end of your draft. For instance, if your league only starts 1 DL, 2 LB and 1 DB, there’s no need to reach in the draft for an IDP. Every week there will be quality options available on the wire. Really good options. There’s no need to draft Patrick Willis in Round 7 when you can take Curtis Lofton in Round 15.

If I ever reach for an IDP, it’s for an elite DL. This is because there are by far the fewest quality fantasy options along the defensive line. But there are a few elite DL that combine high tackle totals with nice sack numbers. These are your Trent Cole’s and Jared Allen’s of the world. I’m usually trying to acquire a solid DL before I chase any LB.

Now in deeper IDP formats (start say 9 IDP’s) everything changes. Now you should still draft your offensive players and a couple of bench options first. Then I’d go after a couple of solid LB’s then a DL or two before turning my attention to the DB’s.

With the increase of passing on offense, more and more defensive backs are seeing extended playing time. This means that you have far more DB options on the waiver wire than at any other position. Rookie DB’s can be especially useful.

Why are rookie DB’s useful in fantasy? For the exact reason that Darrell Revis is not. QB’s don’t want to throw at Revis. They absolutely want to throw at the rookie. That means more chances for INT’s and more importantly, increased tackle totals. In most IDP leagues, it’s better to chase tackles than big-plays.

Once again, following NFL news is critical. Say Jamar Chaney got moved from the SLB to MLB for the Eagles. Chaney’s fantasy value would immediately jump as a 3-down MLB. On defense, a lot of these type of things fly under the radar. So paying close attention can pay off here, even more so than with offensive players.

TD-ONLY LEAGUES

I can’t believe these still exist, but I guess they do. Draft strategy here becomes pretty simple.

First, draft the studs. Nothing really changes here. Maybe a Matt Forte-type falls a bit, while a Michael Turner rises. But elite players are still elite.

Pretty soon, you should have a good QB, a good TE and all of the “stud” RB’s and WR’s are drafted. Now started targeting the “TD-only” guys. These are goal line backs (Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee, Brandon Jacobs), TD vultures (Ricky Williams, Marion Barber, LaDainian Tomlinson) and red zone receiving threats (Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Nate Burleson).

Those lists should make it pretty clear that you want to get at least two “stud” WR’s early. Guys that can score double-digit TD’s. Because you can find some backup RB’s who will score eight or ten TD’s. You’re not going to find any WR’s later in drafts who will score double digit TD’s.

PPR (Point-Per-Reception) LEAGUES

I barely touch on PPR leagues because they are now just as common as standard leagues. All of the high-stakes, championship leagues are PPR leagues. But anyway.

Wes Welker has always been the “poster boy” for PPR leagues. He catches a ton of passes, but doesn’t necessarily pile up the yards and TD’s. RB’s who catch the ball also gain quite a bit of value. If LeSean McCoy catches 60 passes and Michael Turner catches 20 passes, that’s a 40 point difference. For the math disinclined, that’s almost 7 TD’s worth of fantasy points. Again, this isn’t to say that Michael Turner is worthless and LeSean McCoy is God. But in this format, Turner loses some value while McCoy gains some.

I’m always targeting RB’s who can catch the ball and “stud” WR’s early in PPR leagues. I want RB’s who run the ball a lot while also having the potential to catch 40+ passes. I want WR’s who have a shot at 90 catches and/or 10+ TD’s. Once those guys are off the board, I’ll worry about my QB. I might mix a “stud” TE in early if one fell to me in the Round 5 area, but other than that I would probably wait on TE. A lack of TD’s or yards can be overcome with a high volume of catches, so there’s always some decent TE’s available late in PPR leagues.

These are the leagues where you’ll here all about Danny Amendola and Davone Bess. And for good reason. You want guys who are target frequently and accumulate a lot of catches. DeSean Jackson and even Mike Wallace are going to struggle in this format. They are players who get quite a few less catches, but do quite a bit more with them.

STANDARD “FLEX” LEAGUES

Pretty simple, this is the main form of fantasy football that everybody knows. You’re starting lineup includes:

1 QB
2 RB
1 RB or WR (FLEX)
2 WR
1 TE
1 D/ST
1 K

Points are awarded for TD’s and yardage.

STANDARD “OLD SCHOOL” LEAGUES

Also very simple, these standard leagues use a 3rd WR instead of a RB/WR flex. The starting lineup includes:

1 QB
2 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 D/ST
1 K

Points are awarded for TD’s and yardage.

In leagues where you are required to start 3 WR and can only start 2 RB, there is mosdef a premium on WR’s. You are going to want to get two (three if possible) in the first five or six rounds of you draft. Because you can only start 2 RB’s, you will find that RB’s will fall in the draft and be readily available in free agency. Get one “stud” RB early, then fill out the rest of your roster before just loading up with high upside RB’s on your bench later.

EVERYTHING ELSE

Even with throwing the proverbial kitchen sink at it here, there’s no way I’m going to cover every facet of every fantasy football league. Here are a few things that I haven’t discussed yet:

LEAGUES WITH ACQUISITION LIMITS (and/or ACQUISITION FEES) - You have to be careful in free agency with these kind of leagues. You’ll either run out of moves or pay a hefty fee if you don’t. Plan accordingly during your draft. In these type of leagues it’s advisable to draft at least a backup TE and QB. Possibly a backup D/ST if you can pick two that fit well in a committee together. Don’t make a move just to make a move. But don’t be scared early in the year to chase the usual players who come out of nowhere on the waiver wire.
LEAGUES WITH NO WAIVER PROCESS - Good old free-for-all leagues. These are leagues where all free agent players are always available to every team. Period. If you cut a guy, he can instantly be picked up by another team. If you’re watching a game and a RB gets injured, you can pick up his backup immediately, first come, first serve. If you’re in one of these leagues, it’s up to you to be cutthroat. If you can have your smart phone or laptop with you at all times on Sundays, you should. It’s not your fault if you were prepared, or had the spare time. Likewise, if you’ve got too much going on in your life to constantly pay attention to your fantasy league, don’t be mad when you never get any of the good free agents.
LEAGUES WITH DRAFT PICK TRADING - This is easy. You want as many early picks as possible. If you end up with no middle-round picks, it’s just a “Stars and Scrubs” team, same as in an auction. I’m not interested in loading up on middle round picks, I’d rather have a couple extra early round picks and just have to nail my sleepers and whatnot in the late rounds. Also, don’t be afraid to move a draft pick for a proven commodity.
LEAGUES WITH A LOUSY TRADE PROCESS - These are the leagues where it’s impossible to make a trade because everybody objects. You really only have three options: (A) Get in a new league. (B) Accept the fact that you can’t trade in this league. (C) Try to sneak the trade in a weird time. Like over a holiday weekend, during a blizzard or on a Friday night. Sometime when everybody isn’t going to be at their computer. It’s really your only chance.
WEEKLY FANTASY LEAGUES - These are more contests than fantasy leagues. Basically you get to draft team every week. When I play these formats, it’s all about the match-ups. I’m really less concerned with the players than who their playing against. Especially because these contests operate with a salary cap and the usual “studs” cost a ton. Find as many juicy match-ups as you can, then fill in the rest with your “studs” and such.
HIGH STAKES FANTASY LEAGUES - These can include nation leagues such as the NFFC and FFPC. Or just leagues for at least $100. These leagues are going to be very difficult. These guys know what they are doing. All of your “sleepers” are going to go ROUNDS earlier then they would in the exact same league for less dough. In these leagues you need a very specific draft plan and you can’t get rattled when it seems like every player you want is being drafted right before your pick.
PUNTERS AND HEAD COACHES IN FANTASY FOOTBALL - Sigh. There are some leagues that resort to such things. For me they’re just more picks at the end of the draft to keep my kicker company. Unless you’re in a league that really loves punters. In that case, pry time to find a new league.

NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT

Now for something fantasy, but not fantasy football. Do you also play fantasy baseball, basketball or hockey? Maybe even fantasy college football or hockey? DON’T FORGET ABOUT THESE TEAMS! It’s very easy to get distracted by football as the baseball season ends. While you’re worrying about what kicker to start in Week 3, you’ve got no idea who the two-start pitchers are for your fantasy baseball playoffs. PAY ATTENTION. It looks like you won’t have to worry about basketball this year. But if so, set aside separate time to deal with it. Same for hockey. Football is a more compressed fantasy sport due to the limited number of weeks and games. Other fantasy sports are more of a grind and it’s easy to be distracted by the weekly excitement of football. Don’t fall into that trap.

Well, I guess that’s about 30% of everything. But it’s all I’ve got for now. Well except for the stuff that I forgot. I’m always interested in leagues, formats, rules and whatnot that I haven’t played in or heard of. If you’ve got something like that, let me know. Comment or hit up the Twitter nonsense.

I deliberately didn’t cover eliminator games, survivor pools or weekly picks contests. Those are more gaming than fantasy and will be covered in a separate post. Degenerates unite!

My Dudes (2011 NFL Edition)

2011-08-31T15:27:00.002-04:00

Every sports fan has “Their Dudes”. These are YOUR players. Maybe it’s for fantasy purposes, maybe it’s just solely as a fan. For instance, Eric Piatkowski was “My Dude” in the NBA2K2 video game. Justin Upton has been “My Dude” for fantasy baseball for several years now. Last year in fantasy football, Jermichael Finley was “My Dude”.

For our purposes here, “My Dudes” are guys that are going to be on many, if not all of my fantasy football teams. They are players that I am expecting to have excellent seasons. I may reach for them in drafts. I may irrationally ignore news and advice that aren’t positive. These are my dudes, at least for this season. So if the ship goes down, I’m goin down too.

SAM BRADFORD (STL) - Yeah, me and everybody else in the world, right? There’s just a lot to like here. The Rams have invested heavily in their offensive line. Josh McDaniels has brought his pass-happy system to town. The Rams play their games in a dome while facing an easier-than-average schedule due to being in the NFC West. Steven Jackson provides a rushing threat that keeps defenses honest. The Rams might not have a bunch of elite receiving targets, but they’ve got a lot of options. Expect Bradford to spread the ball around and pile up yards and attempts. I’m not expecting a top-5 QB season, but I feel he’s mosdef a top-10 QB with realistic top-7 upside.
BEN ROETHLISBERGER (PIT) - His offensive line is still a mess. But he’s made a Michael Vick-like improvement in his game since his off-field debacle last summer. He seems to be not only in a better place mentally, but also physically in better condition. Now that the Steelers are getting him some receiving targets to go along with the dominant running game, the sky is the limit. A rise in pass attempts coupled with a decrease in sacks and INT’s can only mean good things for Big Ben.
MATT RYAN (ATL) - These are “My Dudes” not sleepers. Remember that. Ryan has so many positives going for him entering 2011. He has 11 dome games on the schedule. The Falcons re-signed their free agents on the offensive line. Julio Jones was brought in at an enormous price to provide a legitimate deep threat across from Roddy White. Harry Douglas is finally healthy and looks ready to thrive in the slot receiver role. Add all that to the slow decline of Michael Turner and you’ve got Ryan throwing more passes to better weapons. We like that. We like that a lot.
MATTHEW STAFFORD (DET) - Thank you Captain Obvious! Is Stafford going to get hurt again? Probably. But it’s been bloody obvious this preseason that Stafford is the Real McCoy. If he stays healthy, he could put up elite QB1 numbers. I’m willing to risk it. Again, he’s another of these QB’s with at least 10 games indoors. If he’s stays healthy, Calvin Johnson could be the #1 WR in the land this season.

RAY RICE (BAL) - He just seems ready to take the next step. The change from Willis McGahee to Ricky Williams seems like it’s going to give Rice some more looks at the goal line. The addition of Lee Evans as a deep threat should open up the offense a bit and give Rice a bit more breathing room. Not to mention that Rice could very well lead the Ravens in receptions. This could be a career season for Rice.
MIKE TOLBERT (SD) - Is this a knock on Ryan Matthews? A bit. But Tolbert is going to catch the passes and score the TD’s. At the end of the season your going to look at his stats and say “Damn Gina, when did Tolbert do all of this?” If Matthews were to get injured (again) Tolbert could be an absolute monster.
BRANDON JACOBS (NYG) - Last year Ahmad Bradshaw was “My Dude”. But between Bradshaw’s fumbling problems and nagging injuries, Jacobs got most of the work he’d lost back. Now we have a 50/50 timeshare for the Giants. Jacobs has looked phenomenal in the preseason, much like he did at the end of last season. I could mosdef see 1,000 yards and 10+ TD’s here. Gotta like that.
JAVON RINGER & JAMIE HARPER (TEN) - And I write this knowing that Chris Johnson is probably going to be signed and delivered by Opening Day. What has history told us about players that holdout and then try to play too quickly? They get hurt. And even when they come back, they tend to have nagging injuries. The Titans are going to run the ball, with or without Chris Johnson. I feel like there’s going to be some value here.
ALEX GREEN (GB) - So Ryan Grant hasn’t looked that great. They’ve got James Starks. Except for Starks has pretty much never stayed healthy for an entire season since before college. John Kuhn is not really an every-down RB. That leaves rookie Alex Green who’s looked good in training camp and preseason action.
ISSAC REDMAN (PIT) - People always talk about the “Curse of 370”. Rashard Mendenhall had over 400 carries last season. There’s definite breakdown potential there. Redman hasn’t been a dynamic RB but if Mendenhall were to go down, Redman would get the majority of the work. And the Steelers are never just going to stop running the ball.
KENDALL HUNTER (SF) - Do you trust Frank Gore to stay healthy? Neither do I. Antonio Dixon hasn’t looked good at all this preseason while Hunter has looked great. Despite his contract extension, Gore is just the 49ers RB for this season and maybe next. If Hunter were to start and look good, that might be it for Gore in San Fran, contract extension or not. Dynasty leagues take note.
WILLIS MCGAHEE (DEN) - McGahee has almost a perfect storm for fantasy around him. He’s going to get the goal line work. He’s got a coach that believes in running the ball, who brought McGahee in to do just that. He’s behind a young, injury-prone back who has never played up to his potential. Not to mention he was the selection of the previous regime. Don’t be surprised if McGahee starts at least a few games for the Broncos.
FELIX JONES (DAL) - Jones has been “My Dude” every year since he entered the league. And he’s disappointed me every year. But now he has the Dallas backfield all to himself. He’s back at his correct playing weight. And he’s stayed healthy throughout the preseason. I don’t need the world, just solid RB2 numbers. If not, Jones is dead to me and will never again be a “Dude” of mine.

PERCY HARVIN (MIN) - Let’s hope that he really has the concussion thing figured out. Donovan McNabb knows how to get the ball to his best receiver. That would be Harvin, and by a landslide at that. Harvin will be used in a variety of ways and could accumulate massive all-around yardage totals. Think what Santana Moss did last season with McNabb, but with some real after-the-catch ability.
LARRY FITZGERALD (ARI) - Did people not pay attention to what he did with ZERO help from his QB’s last season? And don’t think that Kevin Kolb just won’t lock onto Larry, INT’s be damned. We’re talking at least 100 catches here, with all the good stuff that goes along with it. Not to mention if Beanie Wells is ineffective (as usual) the Cardinals will be forced to pass, pass and then pass some more.
DANNY AMENDOLA (STL) - Pay attention, this is the Wes Welker-clone we’ve all been waiting for. Amendola is incredibly similar to Welker and will be used in a similar fashion by Josh McDaniels. Amendola will be the featured receiver for the Rams, even when he is playing out of the slot. Why this guy slides so far in drafts is beyond me.
BRANDON MARSHALL (MIA) - The cat is kind of out of the bag on Marshall now. He is over his hip injury from last season. He’s gotten treatment for a personality disorder and seems to be in a much better place. He’s developed a better chemistry with Chad Henne. The TD’s might not be there, but it sure looks like Marshall will rejoin the 100 catch club. And he’s being drafted as a WR2. Awesome.
ROBERT MEACHEM (NO) - Here’s another guy we just keep waiting on. But it seems like it’s finally time. Marques Colston is really suffering from the affects of his multiple knee surgeries. Lance Moore is a nice player, but he’s not a featured WR. Meachem has that kind of talent. And he’s got the QB who can get him the ball in the right place at the right time. Can Meachem stay healthy and put it all together? I don’t know. But the upside is worth it.

JERMICHAEL FINLEY (GB) - Here we go again. Again. Do I really need to explain? Finley is the #1 guy for Aaron Rodgers when healthy. If he plays 16 games, I don’t see any scenario where he’s not a top-2 TE. Will he stay healthy? Doubtful. But that’s why he’s “My Dude”. It’s like fantasy football crack.
JARED COOK (TEN) - We’ve got Finley Jr. right here. Cook is an extremely talented TE who is finally going to get the chance to be featured in the offense. Matt Hasselbeck has always leaned on his TE and that shouldn’t change now. Kenny Britt may start off the season on a snap count, making Cook the #1 target in the Titans passing game.
ROB GRONKOWSKI & AARON HERNANDEZ (NE) - I’ve given up on trying to figure out which is better. There is going to be some inconsistency from week-to-week while trying to pick the better option. But when the dust settles at the end of the season, I would expect both to be among the top-12 TE’s. Gronkowski should be the better bet for TD’s while Hernandez should catch more passes.
GREG OLSEN (CAR) - Olsen finally gets to go to a team that is willing to utilize his talents. He’s not much of a blocker. But he’s an extremely athletic TE who is a good route runner. I fully expect him to have a career year and quite possibly finish as the #1 target in the Panthers passing game over Steve Smith 1.0. Don’t let the presence of Jeremy Shockey scare you.
VERNON DAVIS (SF) - Now THIS is Alex Smith’s “Dude”. He’s all they got over in San Fran. Well pretty much anyway. Crabtree is once again recovering from a foot injury. Braylon Edwards is facing a possible suspension, not to mention his career long battles with inconsistency and the drops. Davis should be heavily targeted and has a legit shot to be the #1 TE in fantasy this season.

So there you have it. These are “My Dudes” for the entire season, for better or worse. Will I acquire some new “Dudes” (that’s what she said) during the season? Absolutely. Will some of these guys burn me (also what she said)? Of course. But the beauty of fantasy football is that you can build your team however you like. It’s your team, do what makes you happy. Me? I like drafting “My Dudes”.

I’m not even going to go there and make a joke about “dudes” and Twitter. Follow along if ya like.

2009 NFL Week 1 - Spread Em (Monday Night Edition)

2009-09-13T23:13:00.001-04:00

Here's the picks. (Pick is first-listed)

PATRIOTS (-11.5) vs Bills
UNDER 47.5

RAIDERS (+10.5) vs Chargers
UNDER 43

2009 NFL Week 1 - You Talkin To Me?

2009-09-13T21:00:00.003-04:00

This is where I look like an idiot or a genius. Seriously, ask Ryan, I can pay the cover. Anyway, this is where I look back and figure out how much of an asshole I really was this week. If I can't call myself out, what can I do?

JAGER BOMBS

Mike Bell - Did everything I could hope, except fucking score. That's what she said. Seriously though, Mike Bell just really fucked Pierre Thomas' value up. Although it would help if the Saints could keep a LT healthy.

LeSean McCoy - This doesn't seem like much, but take out your Sharpie. The Eagles' offense was for the most part, ineffective and McCoy looked great while he was in. Buy low now, if you own Westbrook and not McCoy, don't bitch when you're fucked. Too harsh, too soon?

Percy Harvin - He's gonna get the ball. He's not more than a bye week/flex start in most leagues unless you're in a PPR and/or a league where return yards count.

Mark Sanchez - Got a good o-line, an aggressive defense and a first-time head coach. The only difference between the Falcons last year and the Jets this year is that the Jets play in the same division as the Patriots.

Felix Jones/Patrick Crayton - News flash, the Cowboys are gonna score. What you didn't know is Felix Jones and Patrick Crayton and gonna score as many points as Roy Williams (2.0) and Marion Barber (3.0?) You heard me.

YOU OK BRO?

Cadillac Williams - If I need to tell you to sell high...... Seriously get off the crack. Or the pills. Not for fake, what do you think, he's Garrison Hearst?

Jason Campbell - He ain't gonna get it done. Is any Redskins' fan happy with Campbell as their QB? Highly fucking doubtful.

Clinton Portis - Again, if you're not selling high, you ain't playin right.

Donovan McNabb - What you thought he would make it though a season clean? He'll try to get back as soon as possible in order to squash any QB controversy.

Jake Delhomme - Not long for an NFL job. Can the Panthers give up a 1st round pick for Vick? If Seymour is worth one, why not.

Steve Smith - See, Delhomme, Jake. Is a blowa.

Denver Broncos - "We beat the Bengals!" Yeah, I don't believe yet either. Peeps are copping the "Kiss the Baby" t-shirts. Denver isn't even a hot mess. They're diarrhea in a laundry basket.

2009 NFL Week 1 - Spread Em

2009-09-12T23:25:00.002-04:00

Blah, blah, blah. Here's the picks. (Pick is first-listed)

Dolphins (+4) @ FALCONS
UNDER 35

RAVENS (-13) vsChiefs
UNDER 44

PANTHERS (+3) vs Eagles
UNDER 43.5

BENGALS (-5) vs Broncos
OVER 42

TEXANS (-5) vs Jets
UNDER 44

COLTS (-7) vs Jaguars
OVER 45.5

Lions (+14) @ SAINTS
OVER 50

Cowboys (-5.5) @ BUCS
UNDER 39.5

49er's (+6) @ CARDINALS
UNDER 46

GIANTS (-6.5) vs Redskins
UNDER 37

SEAHAWKS (-8) vs Rams
UNDER 41

Bears (+4.5) @ PACKERS
OVER 47

Check back tomorrow to see how much of degenerate I am. Of course if I'm kicking ass then you'll be riding the Monday Nite Gravy Train, no doubt.

And the ELIMINATE-HER pick of the week is the: Baltimore Ravens. Roll with them in your survival pools this week. Others that look good are the Saints, Chargers, Patriots, Cowboys and Vikings.

Fantasy Football 2009 - Week 1 Sleepers & Busts

2009-09-09T21:54:00.004-04:00

Shouldn't I try to come up with something more original than "Sleepers & Busts"? I figured it would be easier to come up with something for busts. You can pretty much just substitute the name of your favorite degenerate. I would normally choose Willie Green, but that's not a broad enough reference to appeal to the masses. So what to use for busts? Ryan Leaf jumps out at me but that seems to easy. Sam Bowie? Not football, but still pretty good. There's no way I'm typing Nikoloz Tskitishvili every week, although he is the epitome of a bust. Could I use a movie? Is "Godfather 3" a bust? This is harder than it seems. Onto the actual content, I'll try to come up with something before next week.

Before we get started, some ground rules. Sleepers are guys that are either on your bench or your waiver wire. A guy who's a sleeper in a 14-team league is probably irrelevant in an 8-team league, depending on your settings.

WEEK 1 SLEEPERS

Ray Rice (vs KC) Rice barely qualifies as a sleeper. Rice was a legit 2nd RB in a lot of drafts as August ended. He's got a cake matchup, at home. Rice is a must-start in any format and could be a PPR monster this week, and this season.
Fred Jackson (@ NE) Again, everybody knows Marshawn Lynch is suspended but not everybody handcuffed Jackson to Lynch. Jackson has a good history against the Patriots and the Bills will try to stress the run as their young offensive line tries to find itself. This won't be anything sexy, but 70 yards rushing, 60 yards recieving and a TD still comes out to 19 points. Again, bump up Jackson in a PPR league.
Mike Bell (vs DET) Until further notice, last year's rule still stands: start EVERYBODY vs the Lions. So as long as Pierre Thomas is out, I would feel comfortable starting Bell in almost any league. Reggie Bush too, but I'd rather have Bell unless I'm in a PPR league. In a deep league I might still roll Bell in my flex even if Thomas plays. Pierre Thomas owners should handcuff Bell, like yesterday.
Antonio Bryant (vs DAL) Who else is catching balls in Tampa? I'll believe Kellen Winslow when I see him out on the field, being productive, for 16 games. I don't have a lot of faith in Tampa's new 14-headed running back situation and the Cowboys should be up early. Let me be clear on this. I'm not an Antonio Bryant guy. I think last year was a fluke. I could be wrong. But this week, he's Nino and G-Money. I'd start him in most leagues this week as long as he starts.
Derrick Mason (vs KC) Mason is always a PPR beast, but his lack of touchdowns hurts his value. Betcha he scores this week. Call it 85 yards and a TD? That means he's good to go in most leagues this week. In a PPR he should start most weeks.
Leon Washington (@ HOU) Due to the presence of multiple decent running backs on the Jets roster, none of them will be extremely valuable, barring injury. But I really like Washington, especially early in the year. Sanchez should end up leaning on Dustin Keller and Leon Washington early as he acclimates to the NFL and his offense. But Leon just needs to bust 1 long one to have value and I think he's got that in him this week.
Felix Jones (vs DAL) I deliberately avoid directing any of my league members to Get To The Chopper. When they know exactly what I think, it will kill my ability to trade. But I don't hide anything either. That being said I LOVE FELIX JONES. I expect Jones to finish the year as a top-20 back easily, with a crack at the top-12. Of course he has to stay healthy. But this kid is dyn-o-mite. For me he's basically an every week start. He will be for everybody else too, in about three weeks. So be ahead of the curve.
John Carlson (vs STL) Again, how much of a sleeper is Carlson? Yes, he will be asked to block a bit more than expected. But we think he gets into the endzone against the Rams this week. 50 yards and a TD for a TE means start him in most leagues.
Dustin Keller (@ HOU) Keller should be Sanchez's #1 target right now. He's looked great in the pre-season and came on the clap at the end of last season. He should be owned in all leagues that must start at least 1 TE.
Zack Miller (vs SD) He might be all JaMarcus Russell really has right now. I'm not sure he finds the endzone, but I'm basically positive he catches 7+ balls. If the Raiders can get in the redzone, I think Miller can find paydirt. Smoke em if ya got em.
Kevin Smith (@ NO) I guess this is more lineup advice than sleeper, but Smith should start in every format this week, and most weeks. He should be starting over any rookie RB, Reggie Bush, Addai, any Raiders RB, Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, any Patriots RB..... get the picture Chief?
Anthony Gonzalez (vs JAX) He's pry a guy that you drafted as your WR3. I would have no problem starting him as your WR2 this week. He has a ridiculous ceiling and should get redzone looks. Start him over a Brandon Marshall, Santana Moss, Cotchery-type.
Joe Flacco (vs KC) If you haven't figured it out, start your Ravens this week. Flacco might not be sexy (or Sexy-Rexy for that matter) but he's a nice, safe start this week with good upside. That's what you want for Week 1. Don't start somebody like Brett Favre, Matt Cassel or Kyle Orton over Flacco.

A quick note on busts. Some of these are just situations I would like to avoid but they might be unavoidable. It all depends on why a player is a potential bust. It could be because of matchup, injury, limited upside or any number of other things.

WEEK 1 BUSTS

Larry Johnson (@ BAL) Do you really need me to explain this to you? I'd start Dwayne Bowe and avoid all other Chiefs like the herpes. Jamal Charles might might make for an interesting play in a really deep PPR league, but that's about it.
Jamal Lewis (vs MIN) The Williams wall is playing. That's something that shouldn't be said for Jamal Lewis and your fantasy team. And this is not the week to jump on the James Davis bandwagon. I would avoid all Browns if possible (not IDP), including Braylon Edwards.
All Jaguars WR's (@IND) When it comes to Jags WR's, I'll believe it when I see it. And I ain't seen shit. Troy Williamson? Really? Torry Holt looked so old last year. And I used to heart Torry Holt. There will be some value to be had here. Just don't go looking this week.
Jonathan Stewart (vs PHI) I'm still scurred. Wait a week or two until you know what you're getting. It might not be a bad time to buy-low or sell-high on Stewart, depending if you own him and/or DeAngelo Williams.
Kevin Walter (vs NYJ) It doesn't look like he'll play, but don't start him if he does. Easy enough?
All Tampa Bay RB's (vs DAL) This split has officially killed their value, until the first injury strikes. It might actually be Graham with the value right now, if he's the goal line back. Ward might have a little value in a PPR, but I'd rather start Kevin Faulk this week.
Any Cardinals RB's (vs SF) This is a case where you need to see how it all shakes out. I'd start Hightower if I had to choose this week, but avoid it if possible. We should have clarity soon, either with Beanie getting hurt again, or somebody stepping up and at least defining the roles.
Matt Cassel (@ BAL) Don't
Jake Delhomme (vs PHI) Do it
Marc Bulger (@ SEA) To yourself

Bat Hits - Tuesday, August 25th 2009

2009-08-25T17:35:00.005-04:00

These are just some quick thoughts on various sports subjects. Sometimes there's links, sometime's there's not. Deal with it people. Lots of fantasy related stuff as normal but we'll bounce around sometimes. Hey, they're bat hits, not full-blow McClainiums.

DeAngelo Williams is climbing. At this point it looks like even if Jonathan Stewart plays, he'll just be the #2 guy and the handcuff. Sure he'll probably get more than 100 carries but the Panthers are gonna run it a ton. I'd elevate Williams to the 2nd Tier of running backs right now. Which means I'd have no problem taking him #2 overall (behind AP) in standard leagues.
Chad Ochocinco wants to be a boxer now. I wish we could just stop paying attention but this might actually be good. The opposing boxer might actually be able to shut him up. Of course if Ohco stinks out loud again this year I'm not sure that any non-Bengals fan will give a shit.
Don't the Yankees look kind of brilliant now for not trading for Santana? Phil Hughes has solidified the bullpen allowing Joba to stay in the rotation with a sense of security. Melky Cabrera has been a solid role player this year. Robinson Cano has had a Renaissance and looks like the borderline All-Star he did 2 seasons ago. Meanwhile Santana is headed for surgery.
The Phillies look just as brilliant for trading Cliff Lee instead of Roy Halladay. Halladay got rocked last night (just ask my Yahoo fantasy team) and Cliff Lee has been basically unhittable. Not to mention Cliff Lee will cost $7 million less next season. That's a lot of money for the Phillies. That's basically enough for the other back of the rotation starter they need, or some bullpen help.
Got a bad feeling about Brandon Inge. The situation with his knee just seems to be getting worse. Beside, you can replace the production he's given you since the All-Star break with almost any scrub catcher off of the wire in most leagues.
I don't know if I'm keeping Johan Santana in any league this year. Maybe in a deep dynasty league, but be very, very afraid.
Glenn Coffee is going to be the hot rookie name real soon. He might be a sneaky pickup for Frank Gore owners. Not only will he be the handcuff but he might be useful enough to start with Gore as a bye-week fill in when the matchup is right.
Felix Jones and Leon Washington are probably going to be regular flex plays this season. Ironically, I don't think either one of them is actually the handcuff to have on that team.
Watch out for Greg Jones, Touchdown Vulture in Jacksonville.
Again, don't even mess with a New England running back except in deep leagues. Kevin Faulk is draftable in most PPR leagues as a RB3/RB4.
Seattle looks like a mess too. The scary part is they are going to run the ball a lot. But they now have one over-the-hill running back and one running back who lacks NFL talent. Remember the name Justin Forsett. But if Walter Jones were to miss the season I would avoid all Seattle running backs in all but the deepest of leagues.
Most NFL teams have something to offer fantasy owners. The Cleveland Browns might be the exception. There will be some IDP value on their defense, but their offense is downright doo-doo. It's kind of sad. They should have an above-average offensive line and Braylon Edwards has elite talent. But neither QB looks ready to do anything and their RB situation makes Seattle's look organized.
You might want to temper your expectations for Drew Brees just a touch. Don't get me wrong, I love me the Drew Brees but he just lost his Pro Bowl left tackle to surgery for the dreaded sports hernia. He could miss the first month of the season. Brees is still in that elite tier, but this is just one more reason to avoid over-drafting a QB this year.
I'd continue to avoid T.O. like the Paris Hilton Parasite. He's already got a nagging injury AKA his built-in excuse should something go wrong. If that Bills' offensive line doesn't hold together, Buffalo might get to see the real T.O. earlier than scheduled.
Watch out for the injury to Nate Washington. He was running red-hot all camp and pre-season and now he's out until Week 1 at the earliest. Gauge the seriousness of the injury. If it looks like their just being cautious try to scoop him up in the draft a round or two later than you could've done recently.
Grab Eddie Royal in all formats. Avoid Brandon Marshall in all formats. Keep an eye on Jabar Gaffney too. It's hard to get excited about Denver's passing game without Cutler or Marshall but their defense is so reprehensible that they'll be forced to pass constantly. This could also increase Knowshon Moreno's value in PPR leagues. Ditto Tony Scheffler who's value should rise as Marshall's falls.

On some other whatnot, I caught Inglorious Basterds on Sunday. Theater was pretty packed and it was a good crowd. There was quite a bit of laughter at times and applause at the end. I enjoyed the movie very much and thought that it was very well made. But be aware going in, not much of the movie is in English. So bring your reading glasses, old heads. Tarantino fans will love and it's a very deep film with a little something for everybody. Not a perfect film but more than entertaining and far better than 95% of the other crap shoved into theaters with huge marketing blitzes. I recommend going to see it. Don't bring your kids and know that it's about two and a half hours long. I think you could actually bring a date to this though. Might be a good 2nd date. Because you never do dinner and movie as a first date. Seriously, you won't be able to look anymore boring and vanilla than that. Unless the lady suggests it. Then it's on you to decide if you like vanilla.

Late.

Fantasy Football Preview 2009 - Auction Draft Strategy

2009-08-19T16:40:00.005-04:00

Auction drafts are becoming the new "hot" format in fantasy football. For those of you who've never done an auction draft it's just like it sounds. Everybody (in a non-keeper league) starts with the same amount of money and same number of roster spots to fill. Each team takes turns nominating players to bid on and you can bid on whoever you have money/roster spots for. All of the majors (ESPN, FOX, CBS, Yahoo) offer free mock draft services now. I recommend doing a couple before you do your cash league auction draft. Even if you've done auctions before, it never hurts to do a mock.

So here are a few tips that I've picked up over the years regarding mock drafts.

Early in the draft, do not nominate players you want. Make a list up of players you don't want on your team and place them up for bid. This will deplete the amount of cash other teams have available to bid against you while preserving the players you want to bid on. This becomes more difficult to do later in the draft but early on it will work like a charm.
In the middle of an auction draft don't be afraid to throw the top ranked kicker or team defense out there for bidding. By doing this you're either going to get the top ranked kicker or team defense for $1 or you're going to force another team to spend more than $1 on a kicker or team defense. Don't be that guy. The only exception is in leagues where team defense score a lot of points and include team special teams.
You have a budget, don't be afraid to spend it. In an auction draft you can actually go into the draft with a lineup in mind because you can target specific players much easier than in a snake draft. There's a lot of cheat sheets out there with auction draft money values for each player. Look at your roster and the projected cost for players you want. You should be able to land at least 75% of your targets if you plan correctly.
It's not always the best idea to wait. One auction draft strategy is to avoid spending much money until most of the other teams have already spent a bunch. By doing this you will end up with more depth than anybody else, but more than likely you will have one of the weaker starting lineups. Pay for your starters and find value buys to fill out your bench.
Value is a variable thing as the draft proceeds. How much value a player has to you will depend on your team needs, your remaining budget and how far below your predicted value you can get a player for. Sometimes you should take a player you're not wild about if he fills a need for you and your getting a great deal on him. If you're getting a $12 RB for $3 and you don't have any RB depth you need to do that. He'll give you depth and provide some upside for a possible later trade.
You need to know more about the other owners during an auction draft than a snake draft. Knowing their favorite players, favorite teams and fantasy football history is a big plus. If you know your buddy wants Adrian Peterson no matter what, don't be afraid to bid him up. Odds are you can go at least $10 over your projected price and your buddy will go higher.
Pay close attention to the RB's who REALLY require handcuffs. If an owner spends $32 on Brian Westbrook early, he NEEDS to get LeSean McCoy. So don't be afraid to bid him up. The other owner is basically forced to keep going. Should you actually win McCoy you're going to have a ton of leverage on the Westbrook owner in a trade. If you need a handcuff either try to wait until teams have less money at the end of the draft or nominate the player yourself with a substantial opening bid. This will forces owners to make an immediate decision about how far they are willing to go when trying to bid you up.
One newer strategy I've been working on is basically a variant on a re-raise in poker. In auction drafts, situations often occur when multiple owners bid up a player one dollar at a time. This makes it difficult to tell which owners are genuinely interested and which owners are just bidding the price up. If a player you want is in such a situation, try a re-raise. For instance say you want this player who is projected to go for $20. Somebody else nominates him for $1 and the bidding begins. Three or four different owners start bidding one dollar at a time and pretty soon it's at $10. In a re-raise, what you do here is raise it to somewhere around $15-$17 dollars. By doing this you're either going to get the player you want for less value or you're going to find out what owners are really interested. Sometimes other owners who actually want this player will "fold" because they're afraid you will "raise the pot too much". Not the best analogy in the world but you should be able to get the picture.
One note about auction drafts in keeper leagues. Do as much research as you can by talking to other owners in order to try to figure out who they are keeping. This will allow you to plan your keepers better because you should have an idea of what players will be available in the draft .Who you keep should be based on what is available and how much your keepers will cost you. For instance, if you can keep Steve Slaton for $5 or Adrian Peterson for $58, which one do you think will give you more value? It's Slaton, and it's not close. Also, don't be afraid to trade keepers if you have guys you don't want to keep but you feel are too valuable to just throw back.

The Obligatory Brett Favre Mention

2009-08-18T16:10:00.003-04:00

Yup, Brett Favre is back. He officially signed with the Vikings today. Contract is said to be worth between $10-$12 million. Not bad for one year for an old guy. What does this really mean? People far more "qualified" then me are going kill a couple of virtual forests with all of their words on this subject. So we'll just take a quick peek at the actual implications and the fantasy implications

IN REALITY
Does this really change how you view the Vikings? Is Favre really known for his game management? The Vikings don't have any need to throw the ball all over. They just need to keep defenses honest to give AP and even Chester Taylor room to operate. If anything, Favre is turnover-prone, period. He has been for years, and why would that change?

Favre himself has questioned his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. How should that inspire confidence in anybody else? The Vikings will need Favre the most in November, December and hopefully January. We all know that Favre was hurt last season but he still completely self-destructed. You just get the feeling that he didn't want to go out like that. Who would? But will his hubris come back to haunt him and the Vikings. This season is now all about Brett Favre. Again. Is that really what the Vikings need?

At the end of the day, the Vikings are the favorite in the NFC North. They were before they signed Favre. They're the defending division champs. They won the division last year with Gus Frerotte and Tavaris Jackson. Why shouldn't they win it again? The Lions aren't a threat at this point. The Packers have a done of problems with their conversion to a 3-4 defense. The Bears have questions at every position except QB, RB and LB. The Vikings are pretty solid as a team and should be the favorite.

IN FANTASY
Visanthe Shiancoe just took a bump up. He was a borderline top-10 TE and he probably just moved into top-8 territory. Favre loves him the TE and Shiancoe looked great so far in the pre-season. Plus the Vikings have a good o-line so Shiancoe won't be asked to block more than necessary.

Bernard Berrian also should be happy. I don't know if this will necessarily increase his catches or targets but his already stellar YPC should improve as should his TD number. Leagues that award bonuses for 50+ yard TD's should take notice. Berrian is still really a WR3 but he could be a nice WR2 when the matchup is right.

Percy Harvin has already seen his fantasy stock soar. Any leagues that count return yards and scores should bump Harvin way up their boards. As the Vikings try to work Favre in and keep him fresh you could concievealby see Harvin in the backfield both as a rusher and as a "Wildcat" QB with Tavaris Jackson split out wide. Favre probably doesn't effect his value a ton but if Harvin is on the field as a third WR I have more faith in Favre finding him as the 3rd or 4th read in a play than I did in Jackson or Rosenfels.

Brett Favre himself probably won't find his way onto many of my fantasy teams. His main value will be that he's Brett Favre. Somebody will blow a mid-round pick to draft him as their QB1. That will allow a better QB to drop lower than he should, and you should be ready to take advantage. As for Favre, he's a decent matchup play and just an average QB2. There is a chance he starts out hot. If you have him and he does start hot, SELL HIGH. As soon as he strings two good starts together, move him. Look at how he finished last season. Is there really a reason to think that this year will be any different?

If Sidney Rice or Bobby Wade steps up and takes control as the second WR, they may end up having more value with Favre than they would've otherwise had. That still doesn't make them draftable in 10 team leagues. But in 12-team leagues or larger or even 10-team PPR leagues with deep benches they might be worth a late-round flier.

Fantasy Football 2009 Preview - Team RB Capsules (Part 2)

2009-08-18T15:07:00.003-04:00

Here's PART 2 of our Team RB Capsules. These are snapshots of each teams' RB situation designed to help you plan for your fantasy football draft this year. As always feedback is welcome. Click here for PART 1.

-It really could end up being a mess in Seattle. The good news is new coach Jim Mora Jr. likes to run the football. And if Walter Jones is fairly healthy the Seahawks should have a decent line. The real question is who is going to get the football? This looks like a really murky timeshare. Right now it looks like Julius Jones will start and TJ Duckett will get the short yardage and goal line carries. The listed 3rd string RB right now is Justin Forsett who some will remember as a pre-season darling for the Colts last year. So he does have some ability, file that away for the inevitable Julius Jones injury. Right now I really wouldn't draft any of these backs. Duckett will have more value in a TD only league, Jones will have slightly more value (than the usual no value) in a PPR league. I would draft quite a few #2 RB's before I would take a flier on these guys.

-Yet another murky situation lurks in Kansas City. The only good news is the Chiefs should be pretty lousy. Their defense will be sub-par yet again and they don't have much on offense outside of Dwayne Bowe. So you can just temper your expectations for Chiefs' RB's. That being said, which one do you want, Jamaal Charles or Larry Johnson? In a PPR it's Charles, in a TD-only league it's Johnson. Unfortunately, that's about as cut and dry as it gets. Best guess? This is about a 50-50 timeshare. Johnson will get the goal line looks and 4th quarter carries if the Chiefs somehow have a lead. When the Chiefs are trailing you will see a lot of Charles on the field because of his ability to catch the ball. Charles will probably be more consistent week-to-week but Johnson could have the occasional 2-TD game. Should Johnson get hurt, Charles might get a big bump up though.

-Miami might not be as clear a situation as you would think. Instinctively you would think that Ronnie Brown should be in line for a good season. Not to say he isn't. But is he a rock-sold #2 fantasy RB? Maybe. Good news, he is another year removed from the ACL tear, the Dolphins have a good run-blocking line and they will be a run first team. Bad news, Ricky Williams is still around and will get carries (just not enough to be anything more than a handcuff in all but very deep leagues), a 3rd RB (Patrick Cobbs) will see some time on the field on passing downs and Ronnie Brown will no longer be the "QB" in Miami's Wildcat formation. Ronnie Brown's total touch downs for the last 4 seasons? 5,5,5 and 10 last year. But subtract that first game against New England where the Patriots got blindsided when the Dolphins debuted the Wildcat. That's 4 TD's off. So that's only 6 TD's the rest of the year. Brown looks like a matchups play only unless he is getting 80%+ of the carries.

-Does anybody not love Matt Forte? If not you should. He's probably the #1 pick in a PPR league this year. Seriously. The Bears are going to run the football a ton. They might not pass that effectively but Cutler will throw downfield enough to open things up for Forte more than last year. The surprising note here? Kevin Jones will have value this year. He will be one of the 10 most important handcuffs and he will actually end up with a bit of value on his own, slightly more in a PPR. In short, if you draft Forte you're drafting Jones. If you don't have Forte, Jones makes for an interesting late round flier, for his upside in the case of a Forte injury and for his trade value to the Forte owner in your league.

-The Lions RB situation has been one of the most low-key in the league. And this will work out for you. Kevin Smith has absolutely crazy upside, and a RB job all to himself. Repeat, this DOES NOT look like a timeshare. Maurice Morris will see some 3rd down work and give Smith the occasional breather, but that's about it. The only downside Smith has is the Lions are still the Lions and their defense should be terrible. This might limit Smith's carries somewhat but he's very effective at catching the ball so he should be on the field, regardless. Smith is a rock-solid 2nd round pick and a low end RB1 who you might be able to steal in Round 3 or 4.

-Mark Sanchez is the big story for the New York Jets right now. They have talent at RB, but that's not the story. Thomas Jones is turning 31, wants a new deal and has been the subject of trade rumors. Leon Washington is a dynamic player who wants to be paid like a starting RB. Shonn Greene is the rookie RB the Jets moved up in the draft for. Which RB do you want? It probably depends on your league. If you league is a PPR and/or counts return yards, Washington is probably your guy to target, especially considering how much later you can get him compared to Thomas Jones. In a a keeper league Shonn Greene needs to be on your radar because he will be the Jets' starting RB sooner than later. In a TD-only league I still think it's Jones. The good news is the Jets are going to run the ball. A lot. It's Coach Ryan's style, plus he's going to try to insulate Sanchez as much as possible. In other words, they're all going to have some value. Jones still probably has the most upside as he will start and see most of the goal line carries. The rumor de-jour has been that Greene might be the 4th quarter slash burn out the clock back. I'm not sure if I buy it yet, but Greene is a must-have handcuff for Jones owners. In a 10-team standard league I would avoid Jones until at least Round 4. Ideally he's your RB3 this year, but with high-end RB2 upside.

-What to do with the Cowboys? Rumors have been rampant about Jones, Barber and Choice. Let's make it easy. Marion Barber is a RB1 this year still. He will score, get carries and even catch the ball. Take him over Portis. If you pick at the end of the first round, you could do much, much worse than Barber. Felix Jones will have great value in any league that counts return yardage and/or is a PPR. He'll make an excellent bye-week fill-in and will be a matchups guy. Tashard Choice is the handcuff you need to have for Barber. Should something happen to Barber, Choice would become the starter with Jones staying in his complimentary role. This makes Choice a great upside/trade value guy to target late in your draft, especially in a larger league.

-Is this a bounce-back year for Ryan Grant? Let somebody else find out. The Packers can throw the hell out of the ball and there's no reason for them to throw less. Especially considering that they're having a rough transition to a 3-4 defense and will probably play from behind a lot more than they'll be playing with a lead. Grant just doesn't catch the ball enough and hasn't shown much breakaway ability in recent memory. DeShawn Wynn is getting a lot of ink about possibly being the backup or handcuff to Grant as opposed to Brandon Jackson but I don't know if it really matters. Should Grant go down or lose his job, it's pretty much a timeshare anyway. In most leagues, you just want the guy who will get the ball in the red zone and at the goal line. Grant actually posted better numbers than you would think last season but he just doesn't seem to be set up real well for success this season. Don't target his early but if you can draft him in Round 5 or later as a low end RB2 or ideally a high end RB3 he shouldn't hurt you and will offer some decent upside as a possible low-end RB1 if everything fell perfectly for him.

-Which Frank Gore are you going to get this year? You're going to get the one who touches to ball. A lot. Mike Singletary is going to run the rock a ton. Seriously, think about who the Niners are going to start at QB. If Gore stays healthy he should be a top-10 fantasy RB this year, no questions asked, top-5 in a PPR. Is rookie Glenn Coffee going to get some carries? Absolutely. Is that going to hurt Gore? Absolutely not. If anything hopefully a bit of a timeshare should help Gore stay fresh and avoid nagging injuries. But that does make Coffee a pretty important handcuff for Gore owners. It doesn't look like Coffee will have much value on his own, unless he ends up being the designated goal line back.

-The Raiders organization is a disaster. The good news is, the only thing they really can do is run the ball. Of course it's a messed up timeshare but were you really expecting something else? The guy who will score the most fantasy points (provided everybody is healthy) is Darren McFadden. He's worth a high pick in a keeper league. In most leagues he should be drafted as a high-end RB3 or low-end RB2. But there will probably be somebody in your league that takes McFadden in Round 2 or 3. That's a bit too high. Remember, the Raiders will run the ball a ton, but they will also be trailing in more games than they will be leading. So like McFadden, just don't take him as your RB1 right now. The guy who will see the second most touches should be Mike Bush. In fact, should the Raiders have a 4th quarter lead, it will probably be Bush or Fargas on the field. I think Fargas is really just a handcuff here, he would have some value should Bush or McFadden get hurt. And both of them do have a history of getting hurt. Should Bush be traded to a team where he could start, he could be an absolute monster.

-The Steelers are a team that likes to run the football. The question is, who is going to run it? Aren't most people just done with Willie Parker at this point? I know I am. The only problem is that Parker might actually make for a decent draft pick if you get him late. Should he start the year like gang-busters and stay healthy, Parker could be a rock-solid RB2. But I doubt it. He gets hurt, doesn't score TD's and doesn't catch the ball. So who else is there? Rashard Mendenhall should be the guy. But he's gotten hurt, and when he's been on the field, he really hasn't accomplished squat. Could Mwelde Moore have some value? It looks like it. Hell, Gary Russell was the TD guy last year, that's more that Willie Parker can say. Still, if you can get Parker in Round 7 or later it might end up being huge for you. Just make sure you handcuff him to Mendenhall and monitor how many looks Moore gets.

-You think you should love Matt Forte? Love Pierre Thomas. He will be the RB for the Saints. He will outscore Reggie Bush. Sure in a PPR league, Bush is going to have some value. But Thomas has always shown that he can be an outstanding RB whenever he's gotten the chance. And he's going to get many, many chances this year. Thomas could end up being a low-end RB1. Really. Round 2 is not too early to take him. I would avoid Bush in a non-PPR but I actually think that he's the handcuff for Thomas, not the other way around. Draft Pierre Thomas. That's all there is to it.

-Do you really want anything to do with Cedric Benson? The only good news is that he will remain the starting RB for the Bengals, because for them he's Nino and G-Money (all they got). Brian Leonard had some buzz coming out of Rutgers but was a bust when given the chance to start for an injured Steven Jackson. Factor in the Bengals' lousy defense and their ability to throw the ball and it just doesn't look like any Bengals RB will be in much of a position to succeed. Any starting RB has value but Benson probably has less value than any starting RB not named Julius Jones.

-Derrick Ward is the hot name right now at RB for the Bucs. And he's going to get his carries. But this has all the makings of a 50/50 timeshare. It looks like Ward will see the work on passing downs and Graham will get the goal line carries and they'll most likely split anything else. That makes them both lower-end RB3's and matchup starts. But should one of them get hurt, the other should really increase in value. They're not really true handcuffs, nor do I think you could start both of them at once in fantasy, unless the matchup was perfect. Throw in the Bucs questions at QB, WR and on D and think they're going to struggle to run the ball a lot. Graham might be the better value as he's listed as the starter, is the returning starter and is going several rounds later than Ward. Don't get caught up in Ward's stats from the last 2 seasons.

-Ray Rice will be that starting RB for the Ravens. Willis McGahee is his handcuff and will see some carries regardless. The big question here is what role LeRon McClain plays. It looks like he will spend the majority of his time at fullback. If this is true it's a pretty big bump in value for Rice and even McGahee. Coach Harbaugh will most likely ride the hot hand so if you want Rice I would handcuff him to McGahee. LeRon McClain is a risky draft pick, wait and see if any news on him comes out before wasting anything but a late-round pick on him.

-Jamal Lewis is still the starting RB for the Browns. How long that lasts, nobody knows. This looks like it will be a timeshare with Jerome Harrison from jump street. And don't discount Harrison. He's flashed some ability when given the ball. Mangini likes to run the ball and has no allegiance to either back. Look for Lewis to get the goal line carries and possibly the 4th quarter, run out the clock work, if there is any. Harrison will probably get more total touches and has a great deal more big play potential.

Fantasy Football 2009 Preview - Team RB Capsules (Part 1)

2009-08-13T10:53:00.004-04:00

Here's PART 1 of our Team RB Capsules. These are snapshots of each teams' RB situation designed to help you plan for your fantasy football draft this year. As always feedback is welcome. PART 2 will be up shortly.

-It's a good idea to own both Titans backs. This is one of the few cases where your handcuff (LenDale White) is a productive player regardless. White and Johnson can easily be started together in fantasy when the match-ups are right. Should Johnson get injured White would be the starter but most likely would lose passing-downs work to another back. Still his value would increase with the Johnson injury, possibly into top-12 RB territory, easy.

-You don't want the starting RB for the Colts, you want "The Closer". Whichever back is going to get the ball in the second half is the back you want. Think Rhodes last year and Addai before that. That's going to be the RB who gets the most carries and probably overall touches. Because of the timeshare and their style it's not likely that the Colts will provide a top-15 RB this season. But it wouldn't surprise me if one of the backs gained the bigger piece of the timeshare and became very fantasy relevant in November/December.

-Not sure entirely what to make of the Cardinals mess at RB. What I do know is that Hightower is probably going to start. Beanie Wells is injury prone. Hightower proved to be a good goal line back last year. In other words, it's questionable how much value Beanie will have barring injury. To further muddy the waters, Hightower and Wells are similar, neither is going to be much of threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. So that means that there most likely will be a 3rd back involved (JJ Arrington last year) which will take carries from Hightower and Wells. I'd draft Hightower over wells (non-keeper) and avoid Arizona RB's until the later rounds unless you're desperate.

-Don't sleep on the Buffalo RB situation. Fred Jackson is going to start the first 3 games. And he's probably going to be pretty good. He's always gotten it done when given the chance. I've always been a Marshawn Lynch guy but I think this is a straight timeshare, maybe 60-40 in favor of Lynch but close. Lynch will probably get the goal line work but I think the Bills are going to pass a ton this year. Rumor has it they are going to use a no-huddle as a base offense. Jackson is a 100% must-have handcuff for Lynch owners and he will be productive in his own right. I would bump of the value of both Buffalo RB's slightly in a PPR league.

-Don't mess with New England RB's. If Sammy Morris is cut that would greatly improve Fred Taylor's value and probably Maroney too. But I'm done with Maroney. Plus Kevin Faulk is going to take away almost all of the passing downs work as well as a bunch of touches around the goal line and in the redzone. In a PPR league I would grab Faulk in the latter stages of the draft. There will be weeks when a New England RB goes off. You just have to guess the right week and the right RB.

-It's Knowshon Moreno time in Denver. They passed up filling a bunch of other glaring holes to draft Moreno in Denver. And he's going to get the rock. A lot. I don't even know if there's a clear-cut handcuff to have here. Buckhalter and Jordan might get some touches, but probably not enough to give them much value, unless one of them puts a stranglehold on the goal line back role. Take Knowshon high. In a 10-team (non-keeper, non-PPR) league whenever Pierre Thomas comes off of the board, it's time to take Knowshon. I can't see him lasting past the fourth round. And don't forget, Denver has one of the best o-lines in the league. Moreno has top-10 RB potential, right now.

-Definitely a mess at RB in Philly right now. I think you have to consider Westbrook in your draft (non-PPR) whenever LT comes off of the board. Probably early-to-mid 2nd round. If he's healthy he will again be a top-5 RB so there's value to be had here. In a PPR Westbrook is still a top-7 pick. Be warned, if you take Westbrook you've just committed to spending a 6th or 7th round pick on LeSean McCoy. And trust me, you need to do that. Not only is McCoy a handcuff with great upside but he should be in line for 10-12 touches a game, even with a healthy Westbrook. The only other back to look at is Leonard Weaver who could see some goal line and short-yardage carries.

-I loved Michael Turner last year. Got him between rounds 3-5 last year in almost every league I was in. Made a killing. But be aware, he was MUCH MUCH MUCH better at home in the dome. Go back and look at his home/road splits. But even with all of that he's a top-2 pick (non-PPR). But you need the Jerious Norwood. Despite all of the talk, odds are Norwood gets less than 10 touches per game. But if Turner were to go down..... Norwood could be a monster. Remember when Priest Holmes got hurt and Larry Johnson stepped in? Norwood isn't quite that good, but he could be a top-10 back in that scenario.

-Here's the deal with the Redskins. Draft Portis easily in the 2nd round. He and Marion Barber should probably go back-to-back in most drafts, they are very close in value. Again you need Ladell Betts if you have Portis but you should be able to get him pretty late. Portis should be awesome for the first part of the season, he always is. Let him go off for a couple of weeks and then seriously consider trading him. The last couple of seasons Portis has really worn down as the season has gone on. If your ballsy you could try to hold him till Week 10. Otherwise I would get out around Week 8, right before the bye. The Redskins last 3 games this year: vs Giants, vs Cowboys and @ Chargers. Sell high, sell early.

-I'm of the mind that it's right back to the way shit used to be in San Diego. I can't see Sproles getting more than some passing downs work and some returns. In a PPR or league that counts return yards he will have some value. LT owners really need to handcuff with Sproles but you should be able to do so in the latter rounds, maybe round 10 in a 10 team snake-draft. I'm expecting a bounce-back year from LT. The Chargers have a nice schedule, LT is healthy, Gates is healthy, the o-line is healthy, Merriman is healthy..... Get the picture? If you get LT in the 2nd round of your draft you are raping the competition. In a PPR league you need to take LT in the top-5. Trust me, LT ain't done yet.

-What to do with Steven Jackson? Limitless potential, horrible team. An injury risk yes, but he is a tough guy. But the Rams are TERRIBLE. With Donnie Avery out, the cupboard is bare at WR, the o-line is a mess and Bulger hasn't been good in almost 3 years. There might be a silver lining here though. Jackson is the reverse Portis. He may start slow or get banged up early. But there is now some young talent on the o-line and Spagnuolo is a good coach. By the end of the year this team might start to pull it together. Their last 3 games? vs Houston, @ Arizona, vs 49'ers. Doesn't look too bad. The crazy part here is there's not even really a handcuff for Jackson. If he goes down, that's it. Seriously.

-I view the Panthers just like the Titans. You need to handcuff Stewart to Williams, but Stewart will have his own value regardless. All signs point to a split of carries similar to last year. Williams will be good but won't score 20 TD's again. But 1800 total yards and 15 total TD's is not impossible, or even really far-fetched. You will have to draft Stewart earlier than you would like (rounds 5-6, 10 team, non-PPR) but you can start both of them when the matchup is right. Pay attention though, Carolina has a tough schedule this year. And don't underestimate the loss of Maake Kemoeatu. When he was out last year the Panther's D fell apart. If they struggle, that will really cut into the Panthers rushing attempts. After the first 3 weeks you should have a pretty clear idea of what they really are.

-The Giants. Brandon Jacobs. Rock solid 2nd round pick (non-PPR). Will score a ton of TD's, will probably clear 1000 yards. And will miss at least 2 games. It's just how it works. So you're going to have to take Ahmad Bradshaw earlier than you would like. Remember the value Derrick Ward has had in this backup role the last two years. Remember it because somebody else in your league will too. But man up and draft Bradshaw because he is a required handcuff and will have some other value, especially in a PPR. But be aware, when Jacobs goes down Bradshaw will see his role expanded but it will still be a split, probably with Danny Ware or Andre Brown. Those two might be worth a late flier in a 14-team (or larger) league.

-I love me some Steve Slaton. He's PPR gold too. I have no problem taking Slaton anywhere from the 4th pick on. That Texans offense can really hum and Slaton will get the ball through the air quite a bit. And this is one of the few situations in the league that really isn't a timeshare. Neither Chris Brown or Ryan Moats is any kind of threat to steal carries. Neither one is even a handcuff really. Look for the Texans to pickup a back before the season starts.

-What do you think of Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD)? I think he's a damn good running back. Has been since his rookie year. But I don't think he's going to get the ball 400 times just because Fred Taylor is gone. In fact I don't think he gets 300 carries. Call it 250-275 carries and 50-70 catches. That can be a top-5 RB territory. There is still going to be some kind of split going on here. I like Greg Jones to get some work, he's always be a Del Rio favorite and he's very comfortable in short-yardage situations. Chauncey Washington is listed at #2 on the depth chart and Rashad Jennings is everybody's sleeper. One of those two will see some touches. If MJD were to go down I would expect all three backs to pitch in, with Jones having the most value. Feel free to take MJD from pick #3 onward, and probably #1 overall in a PPR league.

-Do you prefer AP or All-Day? Either way, Peterson is the man. The man you take first overall in your draft and be very happy about it. He's that guy. I would project him to pretty much duplicate last year's stats, with a couple more TD's tossed in. Chester Taylor is back as one of the most needed handcuffs in the game. And he will have some value by himself, especially in a PPR league. As always the Vikings will try to monitor AP's carries to keep him fresh so look for Taylor to consistently see 10-15 touches per game.

Fantasy Football Pre-Season TE Rankings & Tiers (August 11, 2009)

2009-08-11T12:38:00.001-04:00

What we're doing here is looking back at last week's TE Rankings and commenting on anything we see changing.

Jason Witten (1st, Tier 1) He's actually the 3rd TE coming off of the board in most drafts right now. I think that's kind of crazy but people love their Gonzo and their Gates. If you can get Witten as the 3rd TE draft that's pretty sick value. He is the #1 target in the Cowboys' offense. Neither Gonzo or Gates can make that claim at this point.
Chris Cooley (6th, Tier 3) He actually had career highs in catches and yards last year, he just couldn't find the endzone. So there's really no reason for a fall off but watch out for Fred Davis. He was a 2nd round draft pick last year and could be used with Cooley in more 2 TE sets. This might actually hurt Cooley a bit though as he probably will be asked to block more. But Cooley will remain Campbell's safety net.
Brandon Pettigrew (12th, Tier 5) The reports out of Lions camp are not good. Pettigrew has consistently been hurt and has not been anything special when on the field. I wouldn't discount him entirely but I'm not sure if he's going to be draftable in 10 team leagues at this point. He might come up and the season progresses so keep him on your watch lists.
Derek Fine (Not Ranked) He got some looks in the Bills' first pre-season game and a move to the no-huddle offense should get the TE more involved. There might be some value here but I don't see a lot of TD's. Much will depend on how the Bills' o-line comes together. If they struggle the TE will have to stay in and block a majority of the time.
Alge Crumpler (Not Ranked) I was sure he was done but there he was in the Hall of Fame Game. He looks like an offensive lineman. But he can still move a bit and has good hands. In other words, I'm not sure that a Titans' TE is draftable in 10-team leagues. If you need a bye-week fill-in just pick one off of waivers and hope.

Fantasy Football Pre-Season QB Rankings & Tiers (August 11, 2009)

2009-08-11T11:53:00.005-04:00

What we're doing here is looking back at last week's QB Rankings and commenting on anything we see changing.

Tom Brady (5th, Tier 2) Everybody loves Tom Brady. He hasn't missed a practice and he still has Randy and Welker plus Joey Galloway and Bill B's boy Greg Lewis. Don't really think Brady is an injury risk but the track record of QB's coming back from multiple ligament tears (Rivers last year doesn't count) is not good for at least the first 10 games back. And don't sleep on the Patriots desire to run the ball. If Maroney is healthy and Taylor stays fresh Brady might not get nearly the pass attempts he needs to be a top 3 QB. We're not raising him to Tier 1 yet.
Philip Rivers (6th, Tier 2) This is more of a hunch thing than anything else but I just don't think the Chargers will pass nearly as much as they did last year. Their defense should be much better, their division is weak and a healthy LT is screaming for the ball. If the Chargers are a very good team Rivers' stats will probably suffer a bit. It might not be the worst idea in the world to handcuff LT and Rivers. Neither will kill you and one of the two should always have a very good game.
Kurt Warner (8th, Tier 3) The news that Matt Leinart could lose the #2 job actually helps Warner. It's pretty much official that Warner is THE GUY barring injury or catastrophe. The Cardinals o-line should continue to gel and improve so this should bump Warner up to Tier 2.
Jason Campbell (16th, Tier 5) You gotta love the Redskins. On one hand you hear reports about how good Campbell looks, but then you hear about how awesome Colt Brennan looks. Not buying the latter. The Redskins drafted 3 recieving weapons in the second round last year. If just one of them produces something it will help Campbell a ton. Plus this is the first time since Campbell was in college that he gets to stay in the same offensive system. The Redskins o-line is a mess now but if they get it together Campbell could make a run at being a lower-level QB1 or at least a very nice QB2.

Again this is just a quick look. What do you think? We didn't downgrade McNabb yet because he absolutely will get his pass attempts. But if the Eagles don't get their o-line straightened out by Week 3 of the pre-season McNabb could drop an entire tier.

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Preview, 2009 Style

2009-08-03T08:44:00.001-04:00

Here's the deal. We're starting with rankings, then we're going to dissect and update the rankings, then bitch some more. And you're going to be loving it. We feel this is the most constructive way to get a feel for how your fantasy draft is going to shake out this year. Kill?

Here's the deal with rankings over here. The positional rankings are our best shot at predicting who (barring any injuries, yeah right) will score the most fantasy points at each position. The tiers in the positional rankings represent a spot where we feel that there is a large gap between one player and the next lowest player on the list. Players on the same tier are generally expected to perform at a similar level. These types of rankings are helpful when you are targeting specific positions in your drafts, not just necessarily the best player available.

Overall rankings ARE NOT necessarily the order we think each player will finish the season in overall in fantasy points. Overall rankings are use to predict DRAFT POSITION. For instance, in many leagues QB's are the highest scoring positions, but you're probably not taking Drew Brees with the 1st pick even though you think he'll end up being the highest scoring player. Sounds real freakin smart right? AP (or Tuner, or whoever, well not really whoever but we're not arguing over the top couple RB's right now) will have more trade value and perceived value than Brees. Plus you maybe able to get him with your second pick depending how things shake out. You have to consider that thee is expected to be a large difference between AP and the number 7 RB. In most leagues there will be much less of a difference between the number 1 QB and the number 7 QB. Unless Tom Brady goes all Tom Brady on us. Again. The overall rankings are a draft tool not a Draft Bible.

These rankings are meant to reflect a 10 team (non-PPR, non-keeper) league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR Flex, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K with a six man bench. 6 points for a rushing/receiving TD, 4 points per passing TD, 1 point every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 1 point for ever 20 passing yards.

We're not doing D/ST or K rankings yet because it's pretty pointless. After the third pre-season game we will do D/ST and K tiers but don't hold your breath and don't waste a draft pick before the last 2 rounds on a D/ST or a K unless your scoring settings warrant it. And most don't. Don't be that guy.

Please feel free to bitch, nitpick, hate, all that good stuff on our rankings. That's how we get a feel for what people are thinking. But keep in mind, no matter how good of an arguement you make (or how good he was in Madden) we're not putting Vick in the top tier of QB's, or moving up that undrafted player you saw score 3 TD's at training camp last week.

One last note, you should not be drafting money leagues yet. The weekend of the 3rd week of the pre-season is the earliest I would recommend drafting any league that costs you dough. Shit, last year our draft happened about 30 minutes after the Cardinals announced Kurt Warner would be the starting QB. I grabbed him in round 10 (14 team league) and he ended up being a top-5 overall player for the season. So get as much info as you can. You might not really care who ends up the starting QB in San Fran but what if he blows up? Stranger shit has, and will continue to happen.

Fantasy Football Pre-Season TE Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)

2009-08-03T08:22:00.000-04:00

August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings

TE

TIER 1
1. Jason Witten
TIER 2
2. Tony Gonzalez
3. Antonio Gates
TIER 3
4. Dallas Clark
5. Owen Daniels
6. Chris Cooley
TIER 4
7. Greg Olson
8. Dustin Keller
9. Zach Miller
10. John Carlson
TIER 5
11. Visanthe Shiancoe
12. Brandon Pettigrew
13. Brent Celek
14. Kevin Boss
15. Jeremy Shockey
TIER 6
16. Heath Miller
17. Bo Scaife
18. Mercedes Lewis
19. Anthony Fasano
TIER 7
20. Desmond Clark
21. Donald Lee
22. Martellus Bennett
23. Ben Utecht
24. Randy McMichael
25. Billy Miller
TIER 8
26. LJ Smith
27. Brad Cottam
28. Jared Cook
29. Leonard Pope
30. Todd Heap

Fantasy Football Pre-Season WR Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)

2009-08-03T08:15:00.000-04:00

August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings

WR

TIER 1
1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
TIER 2
4. Reggie Wayne
5. Randy Moss
6. Steve Smith
TIER 3
7. Roddy White
8. Dwayne Bowe
9. Greg Jennings
10. Anquan Boldin
11. Wes Welker
12. Brandon Marshall
13. Roy E Williams
14. Terrell Owens
15. Marques Colston
TIER 4
16. Vincent Jackson
17. DeSean Jackson
18. Santana Moss
19. Antonio Bryant
TIER 5
20. Santonio Holmes
21. Jerricho Cotchery
22. Kevin Walter
23. Lee Evans
24. Hines Ward
25. Bernard Berrian
26. Chad Ochocinco
27. Anthony Gonzalez
28. TJ Houshmandzadeh
29. Braylon Edwards
30. Lance Moore
TIER 6
31. Derrick Mason
32. Laveranues Coles
33. Devin Hester
34. Donald Driver
35. Eddie Royal
36. Torry Holt
37. Michael Crabtree
38. Steve Breston
39. Kevin Curtis
TIER 7
40. Joey Galloway
41. Percy Harvin
42. Chris Chambers
43. Donnie Avery
44. Nate Washington
45. Josh Morgan
46. Miles Austin
47. Steve Smith (NYG)
48. Ted Ginn Jr
49. Earl Bennett
50. Chris Henry
51. Muhsin Muhammad
TIER 8
52. Nate Burleson
53. Mark Clayton
54. Bobby Engram
55. Domenik Hixon
56. Issac Bruce
57. Greg Camarillo
58. Patrick Crayton
59. Hakeem Nicks
60. Justin Gage

Fantasy Football Pre-Season RB Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)

2009-08-03T08:07:00.000-04:00

August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings

RB

TIER 1
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Michael Turner
TIER 2
4. Matt Forte
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. Steve Slaton
TIER 3
8. Marion Barber III
9. Ladainian Tomlinson
10. Clinton Portis
11. DeAngelo Williams
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Frank Gore
TIER 4
14. Ryan Grant
15. Ronnie Brown
16. Brian Westbrook
17. Pierre Thomas
TIER 5
18. Thomas Jones
19. Kevin Smith
20. Marshawn Lynch
TIER 6
21. Darren McFadden
22. Joseph Addai
23. Jonathan Stewart
24. Derrick Ward
25. Reggie Bush
26. LenDale White
27. Beanie Wells
28. Willie Parker
TIER 7
29. Knowshon Moreno
30. Jamal Lewis
31. Cedric Benson
32. Felix Jones
33. Ray Rice
34. Fred Taylor
35. Jamal Charles
36. Donald Brown
37. Tim Hightower
TIER 8
38. Julius Jones
39. Jerome Harrison
40. Rashard Mendenhall
41. LeSean McCoy
42. Fred Jackson
43. Earnest Graham
44. Jerious Norwood
45. Chester Taylor
46. Laurence Maroney
47. Willis McGahee
48. Ahmad Bradshaw
49. Michael Bush
50. Justin Fargas
TIER 9
51. Ladell Betts
52. Sammy Morris
53. Leon Washington
54. Kevin Faulk
55. Kevin Jones
56. Greg Jones
57. Glen Coffee
58. Correll Buckhalter
59. Tashard Choice
60. Darren Sproles

Fantasy Football Pre-Season QB Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)

2009-08-03T07:59:00.000-04:00

August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings

QB

TIER 1
1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
TIER 2
3. Aaron Rogers
4. Donovan McNabb
5. Tom Brady
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
TIER 3
8. Kurt Warner
9. Matt Ryan
10. Matt Schuab
TIER 4
11. Carson Palmer
12. Jay Cutler
13. Matt Hasselbeck
14. Jay Cutler
15. Kyle Orton
TIER 5
16. Jason Campbell
17. Eli Manning
18. Trent Edwards
19. Ben Roethlisberger
20. Matt Cassel
TIER 6
21. David Garrard
22. Jake Delhomme
23. Joe Flacco
TIER 7
24. Shaun Hill
25. Chad Pennington
26. Mark Sanchez
27. Brady Quinn
28. Marc Bulger
TIER 8
29. Sage Rosenfels
30. Matthew Stafford
31. Luke McCown
32. Pat White
33. Kerry Collins
TIER 9
34. Tavaris Jackson
35. Matt Leinart
36. Jeff Garcia
37. Byron Leftwich
38. Seneca Wallace
39. Jon Kitna
40. Derek Anderson
41. Tyler Thigpen
42. Alex Smtih
43. Kellen Clemens
TIER 10
44. Vince Young
45. Rex Grossman
46. Chris Simms
47. Josh Freeman
48. Chris Simms
49. Charlie Batch
50. Billy Volek

Friday's NHL Squiggles

2009-04-03T14:42:00.003-04:00

I really just wanted to use the word squiggles. Squiggles are crooked lines, plus it's really just a pretty kill word. Anyhow.....

P.U.T.P.W. (Possible Upsets That Pay Well)
Maple Leafs (+250) @ Flyers
Flames (E) @ Wild

D.N.L. (Damn Near Locks)
Devils (-350) vs Lightning
Blackhawks (-200) vs Predators

B.T.E.O.V. (Beware The Eyes Of Vegas)
Capitals (-160) vs Sabres

NOTES

Leafs @ Flyers is closer to a coin flip than you think. Biron is 1-2 vs Leafs this year.
Flames are 5-0 vs Wild this year
Kevin Weekes is 2-0 this year vs Lightning. Lecavalier is out for the season. Devils are due for a breakout game.
Khabibulin is undefeated vs Predators this season. Blackhawks clinch playoff berth with win.
Capitals are starting rookie Varlamov in goal tonight. Buffalo must win to stay alive in playoff chase.

YOU SAY HIGH, I SAY LOW
Leafs @ Flyers - Under 6.5
Lightning @ Devils - Over 5.5
Sabres @ Capitals - Under 6
Thrashers @ Panthers - Over 6
Flames @ Wild - Under 5
Predators @ Blackhawks - Under 5.5

NOTES

I'd stay away from the Flyers game, the Capitals game and the Devils game as far as the under/over goes if possible.

Random Cutler Links

2009-04-03T12:40:00.004-04:00

I figured I'd just beat the dead horse. Thanks Worldwide Leader! I learned by watching you!

Is Cutler the answer? (Allen Iverson declined to comment)
Jason Campbell is not Jay Cutler
Cutler already has issues with Bears coordinator?

That's enough, for now. Seriously. Not for fake.

The Cutler Trade (A Historical Perspective)

2009-04-03T11:06:00.009-04:00

Cutler Trade
The Bears gave up: (full details here)
2009 1st round pick
2009 3rd round pick
2010 1st round pick
Kyle Orton

*Bears receive Jay Cutler and a 2009 5th round pick

Looks like a lot huh? Let's compare this trade to some other large trades in the last couple of decades.

Herschel Walker Trade
The Vikings gave up: (full details here)
3 1st round picks
3 2nd round picks
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
3 players

*Vikings receive Herschel Walker, 2 3rd round picks, 1 5th round pick, 1 10th round pick

Some of these picks were conditions, check out the link for the full breakdown. Overall this was a miserable failure for the Vikings. The Cowboys literally turned this haul of draft picks and players into a dynasty. History is shown that you can rebuild through the draft. So the more quality picks you have, the faster you can rebuild. Positional value is a bit different these days, I don't know if a team could get 2 first round picks in exchange for a running back today. Probably for Peterson. But quarterbacks are so highly valued. (Looking at the Cutler trade I would I guess that the assigned value for Kyle Orton was a 2nd round pick. That's not a throw in.) If Walker was in his prime today my guess is you could get a 1st and a 3rd for him. So comparatively, the Cutler trade looks like a bank robbery with a clean getaway.

The Jon Gruden Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
2 2nd round draft picks
Cash (rumored to be several million dollars)

*Bucs receive coach Jon Gruden

Yeah I know Gruden was a coach, but it's the actual trade I'm looking at. The Bucs claim they would do this trade again 100% of the time because they won the Super Bowl. How do they know that they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl anyway with Tony Dungy? I guess you could argue that they might have lost to Gruden in the Super Bowl if he coached the Raiders. But the NFC that year was basically just the Eagles and Bucs. But they did get Gruden and did win the Super Bowl so it the trade worked, they won the battle. But they ultimately lost the war because they were never able to add high-end young talent to their nucleus. They had an elite defense for years but could never get over the top after that Super Bowl. No one will ever pay this much for a coach ever again. I just can't see it happening. There is a reason it seems like the Bucs got old and fell apart all at once and this trade (and the Keyshawn trade) are at the heart of that reason. I like the Cutler deal better than this trade. Plus there will be some great coaches on the open market next year, there won't be any 25 year old starting quarterbacks who've been to the Pro Bowl already.

The Keyshawn Johnson Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks

*Bucs receive Keyshawn Johnson

I could basically say the same things about the Johnson trade as I did about the Gruden trade. At the time the Bucs had a good-to-great defense and their offense have Dunn/Alstott and nothing. I guess their thinking was "if we can't get a good QB let's at least get a good WR". So they went out and got Keyshawn. Did Keyshawn play a key role in winning the Super Bowl? Yes he did. Looking back on it, I like this trade more than the Gruden trade. At least Keyshawn was later traded for Joey Galloway who gave the Bucs a couple of good years. These days Anquan Boldin is a good comparison for Keyshawn's value and it looks like Boldin would cost a 1st round pick and maybe a player in trade. So the Bucs overpaid for Keyshawn a bit, but they did need him. I like the Cutler trade a bit more than this, but by itself was a pretty good trade. When coupled with the Gruden trade it completely mortgaged the Bucs' future.

The Joey Galloway Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round picks

*Cowboys receive Joey Galloway

This is a classic Jerry Jones swinging for the fences trade. 2 first rounders was way too much to give up for Galloway and it never really worked out for the Cowboys. Maybe Jones felt bad about getting such a haul for Walker from the Vikings. No matter what way you cut it, the Cutler trade looks like a home run compared to this deal.

The Roy Williams Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick

*Cowboys receive Roy Williams and a 7th round pick

Too early to really evaluate this deal. This is only 1 first rounder less than the Cutler deal. Which makes it quite pricey for a WR deal in this era. This is probably the baseline deal for any other WR deals this year. Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin, I'm talkin to you. Jerry Jones overpaid for two reasons. First he needed T.O. leverage. He ultimately leveraged him right out of town. Second, Jones was pretty sure that if he didn't get Williams before the trade deadline, the Eagles would get him before the draft this year. Given the fact that the Eagles have two first round picks he was probably right.

The Jared Allen Trade
The Vikings give up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
2 3rd round picks

*Vikings receive Jared Allen and sway 6th round picks with the Chiefs

Given the value being placed on premium pass-rushers today, this was a pretty good deal. Jared Allen is one of the best in the NFL and he's squarely in his prime. I doubt you could completely replace him, even with an extra first and a couple thirds. I'd put this deal slightly ahead of the Cutler deal. Part of that is because it seems like it's working out well for the Vikings and Allen was a bit more proven when he was trade than Cutler was.

The Eli Manning Trade
The Giants gave up: (full details here)
Philip Rivers
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 5th round pick

*Giants receive Eli Manning

Here's another deal that the team claims they'd do again 100% of the time when given the chance. Just for the record, the 1st round pick they gave up turned in Shawne Merriman, the 3rd round pick turned into a Pro Bowl kicker and the 5th round pick was traded for a guy who started at LT for the Chargers for a while. You're telling me the Giants couldn't have won the Super Bowl with Philip Rivers AND Merriman instead of Eli? Don't lie to make friends. But in a vacuum (assume I don't know who the draft picks turn into) I still don't know how much I like this trade. Rivers was every bit of the pro prospect Manning was. I like Manning and Rivers more than Kyle Orton but it's not a crazy comparison, at least between Manning and Orton. Seriously, check the stats. It looks like the Bears still gave up more for Cutler than the Giants gave up for Eli, if you grade Rivers much high than Orton. Which I would. But Cutler is at least mostly proven himself, Eli just had a last name and some college film We'll call it a draw, for now.

I've ignored other deals here obviously, I just wanted to compared deals where a large package of picks was traded for a single player. I know there have been other deals but these were more prominent in my mind when I wrote this. I wanted to avoid draft day deals but there's one deal I need to address. Okay, had to add the Eli deal. When I look at the Cutler deal compared to these other deals, I see pretty good value. Did the Bears pay out the ass for Cutler? Absolutely. Might it be worth it? Probably. I'm assuming Cutler stays mostly healthy and plays football for another 10 years. You've got to figure if Cutler could start for the Bears for 10 years he's at least worth the two first round picks. You know the Bears would blow at least two more first rounders on QB's in the next ten years if they didn't have Cutler. That alone seems to make it worth it for me. Physically, Cutler is a good fit for playing in the NFC North and he'll be embraced in Chicago so hard and so fast, he'll be quite scared.

The one thing nobody has talked about yet is Cutler's contract. He's received most of the money already due to the bonus structure of the deal. I believe he's making just over $1 million this year. For a starting QB, that's insane. I've always been of the position that if the Broncos had just offered Cutler an extension he would've taken it and it would've been all good between Cutler and the Broncos. Yet the Broncos chose not to offer an extension, nor has an extension been announced in conjunction with this trade. Given the acrimony between the Broncos franchise and Cutler it's quite possible that the Bears never spoke to Cutler before acquiring him. At the least, no substantive contract took place. Just something to watch out for in the coming weeks. I wonder if the Bears are waiting for the Giants to extend Eli? It will be interesting to see which QB signs his extension first, especially given the current economic climate and upcoming CBA talks.

Cutler To The Bears

2009-04-02T17:43:00.004-04:00

According to Jay Glazer of FoxSports.com and reported by ProFootballTalk.com Jay Cutler is a Chicago Bear. The rumored cost of Cutler - 2 first round picks, a third round pick and Kyle Orton. The Bears will receive Cutler and fifth round pick from the Broncos.

So how does this look for the Bears? It could be worse. I think they would've been better off swapping Urlacher or Hester instead of a 2nd first round pick but they needed Cutler. Orton is extraneous with Cutler on board so throwing him in the deal amounts to nothing. For a Bears team with a lot of needs this is a pretty big deal.

Look for the Bears to get a bit more active with the available free agents. I could see both Orlando Pace and Torry Holt getting long looks by the Bears now. They need OL and WR help and with only 1 pick on the first day of the draft they will have to look elsewhere to fill those needs. Not to mention they need pass-rush help, another corner or two and possibly two safeties. Maybe they turn around now and deal Urlacher for an additional second round pick. I doubt it, but with the Cutler acquisition the Chicago front office has bought themselves at least a year's worth of goodwill.

This should help take a little bit of leverage away from Donovan McNabb, the Bears were always the go-to team in any McNabb trade scenario. I think Brandon Marshall should be able to hold most of his fantasy value but I would expect Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokely to lose some value with the loss of Cutler. Tony Scheffler will have a new address soon enough. One guy I like more today is Greg Olsen. Cutler loves him some tight ends and Olsen is very similar to Tony Scheffler.

More thoughts later. I can't wait to hear the reactions from Washington and New York.

Can Cutler Cut It?

2009-04-02T11:45:00.005-04:00

Tampa Bay Online is reporting that the Broncos asking price for Jay Cutler starts at two first-round draft picks.

That's already a steep price. In addition to that I'm willing to bet they're also looking for a young player or two, if not a potential starting QB and/or a centerpiece for their rebuilding defense. Remember, Tony Scheffler is on the trading block as well, don't count out a package deal. This will most likely end up being a three or four team trade as it is. Very few teams have the ammo to match what the Broncos want in a straight-up trade. Only the Redskins or the Jets are probably crazy enough to give up three or more first-round picks in order to sweep in and get Cutler before another team can make the Broncos a better or more practical offer.

Is Cutler worth all of this? My gut says, probably. I don't think he's ever going to be a pinpoint accurate passer. He's going to throw a few more interceptions than you like. But he's got a cannon and can make every single throw there is on a football field. He's cocky but that would probably fly in a younger locker room where he is the unquestioned leader. Worst-case scenario is that he is a slightly above-average starter. Think Jake Delhomme or even Gus Frerotte with much more physical talent. That's a borderline Pro Bowler with Super Bowl potential. Remember, not so long ago Rex Grossman started a Super Bowl game.

So let's try to simplify things a bit. Here's a list of teams that will not being acquiring Cutler. We'll call this the:

Not A Chance In Hell List
Colts
Patriots
Steelers
Packers
Saints
Cowboys
Giants
Falcons
Ravens
Bengals

Bronco's Wouldn't Do It List
Chiefs (Broncos would probably do it for Cassel and a first rounder)
Chargers (Straight up for Rivers who is in the last year of his deal)
Raiders (They'd probably offer Russell straight up and the Broncos would laugh)

*Note, the Broncos play in the same division of these three teams. They won't trade Cutler in the division unless their getting Cassel or Rivers in return. Yeah, probably not happening. Try about 95% Not Happening.

Extreme Long Shots
Seahawks - The Hawks would have do something like send the Broncos Hasselbeck, their second round pick, swap first round picks with the Broncos and throw in a future third round pick. Might be worth it for the Hawks. The Broncos could draft Sanchez with the Seahawks pick (or Stafford if he fell) and start Hasselbeck for the next 1-2 seasons.

Eagles - Would the Eagles give up McNabb, Kolb and a draft pick? Probably not. I don't know if McNabb would fit McDaniels' system and I really doubt Cutler could fit into Andy Reid's system. But both coaches would be arrogant enough to try it. Both quarterbacks are also looking for new contracts. The Broncos have recent acquired three former Eagles, if that means anything.

Texans - Could the Texans be tempted to move the oft-injured Matt Schuab? Schuab and their first round pick would certainly be a tempting offer for the Broncos. I doubt that the Texans would offer such a deal, but you never know.

Jaguars - Pretty much the same deal as the teams above, probably most similar to the Seahawks deal. The Jags could offer David Garrard, their second round pick, swap first round picks and give up another player or future pick. Again, I'm not sure the Broncos would want Garrard and I think it's too early for the Jags to give up on the QB they just extended last year.

Titans - This would be the interesting one. Would Denver have any interest in Kerry Collins, Vince Young and some other picks and/or players. The Titans could throw in LenDale White or Jevon Kearse. If the Titans could get Cutler without giving up one of their first day picks this year or next I think they would think long and hard about the deal. (That's what she said)

Bills - They just shook up the team by acquiring T.O. and they seem committed to young Trent Edwards. They could end up being a landing spot for Tony Scheffler though. The Bills could jump in on this deal if it becomes a multiple-team monstrosity and the Bills decide that they're going to move Jason Peters. If the Bills could get Cutler and Scheffler for Peters and Edwards I think that they would at least have to seriously consider it. It's a good year to be looking for an OT in the draft.

Miami - Jay Cutler just doesn't seem like a Parcells guy does he? The Dolphins have some nice young talent including two recent second round draft picks at QB. Would the Dolphins give up Henne and Pennington for Cutler? Maybe. I don't think that it would be a slam dunk 'yes'. The Dolphins have their QB plan in place, look for them to stick to it.

Rams - The Rams could offer the same thing as the Jags or Seahawks. A veteran QB (Bulger), a second round pick, the right to move up in the first round and a future pick. It would seem to be a waste to put Cutler's cannon arm indoors but he's got a lot more mileage left than Bulger does. Bulger might fit McDaniels' system but his health is a major question mark.

Cardinals - This one is extremely intriguing. Even if they could trade Matt Leinart straight up for Cutler I can't see Cutler or Warner sitting for even a quarter of a game, much less a season. So if the Cards really were interested in acquiring Cutler, it would be Warner who had to go. If the Cards just want to jump in as a third team they could offer up Leinart and try to get a draft pick to draft another young QB. Again, this is extremely doubtful but shit does happen.

Vikings - Despite what they say I would think the Vikings would say yes if they were offered Cutler for Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson. That's not going to happen though. I don't think the Vikings will be involved in this unless they can trade Chester Taylor away for another asset to make a differnt sort of offer, or get in on a three or four team deal.

Again, these are all long-shot possibilities. I'd say there's about an 80% chance of these deals NOT HAPPENING.

So if you add up all of the teams on the Not A Chance In Hell List (10 teams), the Broncos Wouldn't Do It List (3 teams) and the Extreme Longshots List (10 teams) you have 23 teams that most likely won't be acquiring Jay Cutler. Add the Broncos themselves to that list and you have 24 teams. That means there's only about 8 teams with a realistic desire to have Jay Cutler as their starting QB this year. Well, 8 teams that are just in the position to do so at this time, I'm sure a lot of teams would like to get Cutler depending on the circumstances. Those 8 teams are:

Lions
Bears
Redskins
Panthers
Bucs
49er's
Jets
Browns

The teams are listed in no particular order. Random thoughts on these teams:

I would think that the Lions should jump all over Cutler but I don't think they're going to. The Broncos don't want the first pick so the Lions would either have to make this a multiple-team trade or make some deals of their own before dealing with the Broncos. Plus the rumors are swirling that they're falling for Stafford.

Boy do the Bears need Cutler. He's got the arm to play in that division in December and the Bears offense isn't afraid to let the quarterback sling it around. Just think of Cutler as Rex Grossman on steroids. Which is basically what the Bears need. Their problem is they don't really have the goods to get Cutler. I'm guessing that Orton would be thrown in any deal. For the Bears to make it interesting Devin Hester and/or Brian Urlacher would have to be involved. Is it worth it for the Bears to gut their team? Probably. They've struggle to find a QB for two decades. They just need to man up and go for it. They can't afford to draft another first round QB and fail.

I hear the Redskins want Cutler insanely bad. If they get him the rumors of the Mastermind coming to DC next year will probably come true. The Redskins really, really, lack the ammo to get the deal done and may have to just bankrupt the future to get Cutler. I doubt the Broncos want Campbell and he's worth maybe a third round pick on the open market. The Redskins would literally have to give up at least three first round picks.

Now the Panthers make a ton of sense. Jake Delhomme, Julius Peppers and a second round pick for Cutler and Scheffler. Sure the Panthers would devestate their pass rush but I get the impression that Peppers is gone one way or the other. There's no way to replace him on the open market so they'd have to look through the draft regardless. If they did this deal they would solve their QB and TE problems, which would basically complete their offense. They could dedicate their entire draft to the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos would get a premium pass-rusher and a stop-gap QB who has at least one more year in him. Pretty good deal.

The Bucs are another prime landing spot due to their glaring, gaping hole at QB. If they thought Luke McCown was the future they wouldn't have tried to get Cutler the first time. The problem is they have even less ammo than the Redskins when it comes to this trade. I mean they've really got nothing to offer. It would probably take more draft picks than they gave up in the Gruden deal, considering they don't have a second rounder to give up this year.

The 49er's are another team with a terrible QB situation. Cutler would be viewed as a hero-type in San Fran (think Philly when T.O. first showed up) and it would by Singletary the year or two he needs to rebuild the team properly. I'm not sure that the 49'ers have the ammo to get it done, but their first round pick might become more valuable to the Broncos if Mark Sanchez were still on the board. If that was the case, maybe two first round picks would be enough. And they'd probably throw in Alex Smith, just to drag him closer to Ryan Leaf-type infamy.

Poor Jets. If all of this had been going on before Favre had retired, think of the press headlines that couldn've generated. Favre and the Jets first round pick (and change) to the Broncos for Cutler? I doubt it would've work, but something tells me Favre would've been at least a little bit interested. The Jets may have a few pieces to offer the Broncos (David Harris, Thomas Jones, Leon Washington) I'm not sure they can afford to part with any of them. The Jets would ultimately have to overpay drastically in the form of draft picks, just like the Redskins or Bucs.

Just how much alike are the systems of Charlie Weis and Josh McDaniels? Because Brady Quinn did seem to run the former's very well. Could Cutler and Quinn be dealt straight up for each other? Nope. What about that rumored Shaun Rodgers and Quinn for Cutler deal? Now that deal really does seem to make a great deal of sense. I'm not sure that it's going to happen though. The Browns really, really need Shaun Rodgers for their defense to have a prayer next year. Plus the fans are still on board the Brady Train. If he became a superstar in Denver the Cleveland fans will hold it against Cutler, fair or not, unless he wins Super Bowls.

So I wrote all of this, I must have an idea about where Cutler's going right? I think I have even less of an idea now than when I started. If I had to guess I would say that it's either going to be an exremely convuluted multi-team trade or a single team will overpay drastically. If it goes the multi-team way Cutler could end up on any one of the eight teams, or possibly even 23 teams depending on how crazy the deal got. If Cutler is dealt for a massive package of draft picks and players look for the Jets or the Redskins to be starting Jay Cutler at QB next season.

Shuffle Off To Buffalo

2009-03-08T13:00:00.004-04:00

So T.O. is a Buffalo Bill. He got a fully-guaranteed, 1-year $6.5 million dollar contract. Let's peep some of the different layers of this deal.

For the most part, this was a home run for the Bills. Do I believe that Terrell Owens destroys football teams? Yes. But not in Year 1. For T.O. Year 1 is all about proving the naysayers wrong and collecting that big first year money. Could the Bills have waited and maybe saved a few million? Could they have structured a contract that paid him based upon how many games he played? Sure. Would either of those options made T.O. happy? Not a prayer. The Bills paid T.O. fairly close to market value by choice. They've done a masterful job of setting the table here. T.O. has to be on top of his game (on and off the field) if he ever wants another payday and another day in the spotlight. He's paid and he has to be motivated somewhat by all of the teams who came out publicly and said they had no interest in T.O. or that T.O. was a cancer or that T.O. drops the ball too much. Worst case scenario the Bills cut him mid-season after he's decimated Trent Edwards' confidence completely. Best case scenario T.O. frees up Lee Evans to run wild and the holes for the running backs get bigger with each step back the opposing safety takes.

The Bills needed to make a splash. They really hadn't done so in years, pry since the Drew Bledsoe trade. If they want to maintain a stable franchise in Buffalo they have to either win a lot or garner a great deal of national attention which will in turn bring prime-time games and coverage back to Buffalo. This move should help the Toronto game quite a bit as Canadians are probably still curious about "that Owens guy".

Buffalo is running a bit of a locker room risk here. There's not a large veteran presence in the locker room to help keep Owens in check. Jauron is a good coach but he's on the hot seat as it is. I actually think this is going to be a very good experience for Trent Edwards. First off, he needed another weapon not named Evans or Lynch so bad it was actually kind of sad. Owens was the biggest playmaker available right now, by far. Owens has come out before and talked about how he makes quarterbacks better. In this case I actually think that Owens is going to be very motivated to turn Trent Edwards into a star. Because that will prove that T.O. makes the quarterback better, not T.O. needs a great quarterback to excel. Where were the Bills going before this move? They were 0-6 in the division last season and they've lost some players in free agency already.

The city of Buffalo is a unique place to live and be a sports fan. They only have the Bills and the Sabres and neither team exactly has a history of getting it done at crunch time. Every year these fans get their hearts crushed. And every off-season neither team has enough cash to keep their own players, much less buy somebody elses. But these fans slowly build up their faith and by the time the season starts, the whole city is ready to go. And they ultimately get let down, be it by the players, the coaches, ownership, management and the ever-fickle Gods of Sport. Hear this Terrell Eldorado Owens, these fans will love you in training camp. These fans will love you on Opening Day. They'll even love you after you drop that first easy pass any NFL wide receiver should catch. But if you open your mouth and that T.O. shit comes out of it you might as well just go home. This isn't Dallas where they encourage personalities to be larger than the team. This isn't Philly where the fanbase was so desperate for a playmaker that had T.O. never turned on the team he would still be the King of Philly right now. Those people loved T.O. so much deep down that when he was cut free a few days ago that they began to remember the "good" T.O. that they had for a little under a season. Couldn't happen, too many hearts broken, too many bridges burned. Beware son, beware.

After this there will be 1 A-Rod post and then I'm declaring a "Terrell Owens/Alex Rodriguez Free-Zone" until March 15. Unless either of them die they will not be mentioned in this space and I don't even think I'll even feel like talking about either of them at the bar over a couple of cold adult beverages.

T,O. Gets TKO'd

2009-03-05T13:38:00.004-05:00

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is a pattern. The Cowboys are the third franchise to cut ties with Terrell Owens. Owens has only played for three teams. (Although he once was traded to the Ravens and he promptly decided he didn't want to play for the Ravens. So we really don't count that as being on a team.) So what does it all mean? Well that's too deep of a question to explore today so let's just examine the obvious T.O. fallout.

The list of suitors for T.O. is going to be tiny. The money will be even smaller. Except for maybe the Raiders. They're the wild card and the obvious fit for T.O. at first glance. Al Davis might be willing to throw T.O. $5+ million for a season or two. Why not? T.O. could get his 8 billion targets per game and Russell would at least have a competent, healthy WR. It would ultimately be a disaster but what the hell right? Anyway, he only goes to a non-Al Davis team on a 1 year near the minimum with a couple of incentives deal. Let's just list the teams that Owens will NOT be playing for: Cowboys, 49er's, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Patriots, Dolphins, Chiefs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Falcons, Browns and Chargers. That's 18 teams. Add in the Raiders and it's 19 teams. Out of the remaining 13 teams I really can't see the Colts, Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Bengals, Lions, Rams or Texans adding Owens. So that leaves 5 teams (not owned by Al Davis) that I could see having some possible interest in Owens: Jaguars, Jets, Broncos, Titans and Bills. The Jaguars, Titans and Bills would only probably kick the tires because of positional needs and the fact that Owens could be had on the cheap. He would instantly be the best receiver on either the Jaguars or Titans and he could be the answer the Bills have been looking for opposite Lee Evans. Thing is I doubt any of the those 3 teams have a QB that could handle/satisfy Owens. The Jets are an interesting study. My guess would be they're not interested but it could be a fit, except for the Jets glaring hole at QB. The Jets will need to sell seats in their new stadium and Coles just hit the road. The Broncos would represent the most interesting option. Josh McDaniels saw Randy Moss reform why not T.O.? He could work opposite Brandon Marshall or replace Marshall for a period of time if Marshall is suspended. Is it going to happen? I doubt it. But remember, Brian Dawkins was a T.O. supporter and he's now one of the leaders in that Denver locker room.

Personally I've felt Owens has been a bit overrated and not worth the trouble for about the last 5 years. I hope that he goes to the Raiders and it fails spectacularly. Those press conferences alone will be worth the cost of admission. If Owens was properly motivated could he help a team? Absolutely. But it's always been about T.O. and that's the problem. He and Al Davis really deserve each other, just like Owens and Jerry Jones. I've said ever since Owens left Philly that no team with him on the roster would ever win a meaningful game. I stand by that.

What does this do for fantasy football values? Let's just look at the Cowboys real quick. I'm expecting Felix Jones to start, (playing the Julius Jones role) with Barber going back to his short yardage/redzone/4th quarter role. Without Owens both of those backs should be a bit more involved. I think this won't hurt Romo's value at all. Romo will no longer have to worry about forcing balls to Owens and Roy Williams is a better downfield threat than Owens at this point of his career. Williams could easily become a top-10 WR this year in fantasy. This solidifies Witten as the #1 fantasy TE in my mind. He should see increased redzone looks and this should offset any touches he might have lost to their other TE, Bennett. I don't think the Cowboys will make a big move at WR, maybe they bring in a veteran Bobby Ingram-type but that's about it. They'll draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th round and move on. If I had to rate the other Cowboys WR's right now it would be 1) Williams 2) Miles Austin 3) Patrick Crayton 4) Sam Hurd.

I know more than a few people in Philadelphia have suggested that Owens could return. McNabb would love him again and it would be all good. Not going to happen. You or I have a better chance of playing WR for the Eagles next year. Not even if he offered to pay the team a salary and offered to kiss Andy Reid's bare ass on Sportscenter. Not going to happen.

So What Does It All Mean?

2009-03-04T19:55:00.007-05:00

"Kurt Warner re-upped, Ray Lewis re-upped, now who got a problem with dough?"

It appears Ray Lewis got about $7 million per year with a good amount guaranteed. That's not super-dough, but it's large. But this deal was a forgone conclusion. Linebackers not named Ray Lewis (or Terrell Suggs these days) have to leave Baltimore to get paid. Ray Lewis gets paid to stay. Lewis was quoted as saying that he would sign the deal that paid him the most money, regardless of who offered it. So I take that to mean that Baltimore offered more than any other team. There was a rumor that the Jets were interested but Lewis wanted insane money. But hey, rumors are rumors and Ray Lewis is a Raven.

I decided to compare the Brian Dawkins situation to the Ray Lewis situation. Might not be a completely even comparison but this isn't the SAT. Both are regarded to be on the back stretch of their careers. Most didn't think either was even the best at their position on their team last year. Both are regarded as the heart and soul of their respective franchises. Both of those franchises are coming off of conference championship game losses. Both teams had enough salary cap room to retain the players. That's enough in common to make a valid comparison. So what are the differences?

While most regard Ray Lewis as a player in decline he's still a top-tier middle linebacker. He doesn't make as many plays sideline-to-sideline as he used to but if the d-line can keep the big guys off of him he will make plays. Dawkins made plays in the second half of the season but he struggles mightily in coverage these days. The Eagles have really struggled defending against tight ends the past couple of seasons. That used to be a Dawkins job. Eagles fans will remember how tightly he used to play a young Jeremy Shockey.
Both franchises made offers to the players before free agency opened. Lewis could not find other offers and Dawkins could.
Both franchises talked about how much the players meant to their respective franchises and how important it was to retain these players. This came from owners, coaches and teammates. The Ravens made an aggressive offer to Lewis that was apparently very close to market value. The Eagles made Dawkins a decent offer but they did not offer the type of money in the first two years that the Broncos did. So on some level Lewis still knew he was wanted, Dawkins probably wasn't so sure based on the disparity between offers.

Not a perfect analysis but it is what it is. If I had to guess I would say that next season Lewis plays just about as well as he did this season, barring injury. I'm not so sure about Dawkins in the AFC West. Why? Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Zack Miller. Plus Lewis is still surrounded by a great deal of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Outside of Dawkins, Champ Bailey and DJ Williams how much talent does Denver have on defense?

Kurt Warner re-signed with the Cardinals. Big surprise there huh? Couple of bat hits about that real quick.

What were the 49er's thinking? Did they ever really think that Warner would sign with them? Maybe for top-5 QB money but why? The Niners are a re-building franchise that needs a future, not a Band-Aid. Outside of Frank Gore they don't really have much at the skill positions on offense. Plus, while Warner has proved to be a complete stud in certain situations, he's struggled mightily in others. He fits well in the controlled-climate stadium in the desert. How good would he be if he had to play most of his games truly outside?
What does this mean for Anquan Boldin. My first instinct is that he's staying. My second instinct is that he's not going to get paid this year and that might cause some problems. I think Warner has some insight into this, his free agent status was the only thing that really gave him any leverage in the situation. Boldin is staying. My best guess is that the Cardinals re-work his deal with a massive bonus due after the season. At that point they can pay him or trade him. And Boldin knows that he's in a good situation, with a good QB with a big payday guaranteed (except for injury) on the horizon. Drew Rosenhaus won't be happy, but when is he ever?
Where does Kurt Warner rank in fantasy football next season? It's a bit early to ask but I'm skeptical. I stole Warner in almost every league I was in last year and was loving it. But he won't sneak up on anybody this year and most likely will be in the top 5 QB's off the board. He just doesn't have a history of staying healthy and the Cardinals really need something at TE and a consistent running game. I still love Boldin and Fitzgerald but I'm wary about Warner. I would rather have (in no particular order): Peyton, Brees, Cutler, Rivers, Romo, Rodgers and Brady. So I guess I have Warner about 8th. I have him and McNabb about even.

NFL Free Agency - The Ongoing and The Aftermath

2009-02-28T14:17:00.005-05:00

I'm sure everybody has read about the major free agent signings in the NFL. I'm just going to highlight some of my thoughts/ramblings/mutterings.

Matt Cassel to the Chiefs. If the Chiefs can upgrade their O-line in the draft the Chiefs could be in business. Yeah they have the Chargers in the division but you just don't know what you're going to get with them this year. The Raiders are still the Raiders and the Broncos do not have a lot of talent outside of a few guys on offense. Give Cassel Bowe and Gonzalez. Sit Larry Johnson down and get him focused somehow. Those are decent pieces. Sure they also need the o-line help but after that they just need a complementary RB and a decent second WR. The defense will be a work in progress but they've got some talent on that side of the ball. Everybody raved about the Chiefs draft last year (well immediately after the draft) and it will be up to those draftees to step it up in year two.
Fred Taylor to the Patriots. This will work. He's more talented than Sammy Morris and could shoulder the load in the 4th quarter still. And he signed for dirt cheap. This is why non-Patriots fans hate the Patriots. It's kinda like a backhanded-respect thing.
Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins. My buddy Cesar asked me last night "is Haynesworth really that good?" and I struggled to provide one answer. When properly motivated he's more or less un-blockable. Quite possible un-stoppable. But he hasn't played 16 games since his rookie season and nobody will ever forget this. (This is just going to be a series of "buts" please bear with me, it's Saturday and I drink on Fridays) But he just got PAID. In reality the contract looks to be worth about $48 million over 4 years. But almost all of that is guaranteed. So he needs to be motivated now by money he already has not by his desire for money. And does this sort of thing ever really work out for the Redskins? Shouldn't Haynesworth really be a Cowboy or a Raider? Not that it would work out any better, it would just be more entertaining. But the Titans defense was a completely different unit without him. And by completely different I mean not nearly as good. But maybe he will motivated by the haters. And we are haters. He played well enough last year that somebody felt he was worth all this money. Good for him. It's not his fault that teams tend to pay for past production as opposed to present and future production.
Kellen Winslow traded to the Bucs. Here's one of those trades that I think will help both teams. Winslow wants a new deal. Has for a while. The Bucs are incredibly flush with cap room and have to spend quite a bit of dough just to get to the cap floor. (Cap floor is the minimum amount an NFL team must spend on salary. The floor will dissappear when the cap does, allowing teams to spend as much or as little as the want on player salaries.) The Browns needed more picks to inject some youth after forfeiting most of their draft picks last year in trades for veteran players. Plus you just knew Mangini and Winslow were going to get along famously. And by famously I mean want to kill each other. In Tampa Winslow should get his money and will have a chance to be once of the new faces of the franchise. Sure he's an injury risk and he overrates himself but he's a player when healthy and properly motivated.
Lito Sheppard to the Jets. I think this is another good trade for both teams. The Eagles pick up a 5th rounder this year and a conditional pick next year which could be a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick. It's not quite as much as they were asking for last year but it's not bad considering everybody knew Sheppard was gone as soon as the Eagles re-signed Hanson for starter money. The Eagles already have 2 first round picks this year so it makes sense to defer the higher pick until next season anyway. The Jets really needed a good cover corner opposite Revis and Sheppard can be spectacular at times. Nice trade really for both sides.
Kerry Collins re-ups with the Titans. The only surprise here is that he signed before Warner did. The money seems about right but I'm not sold on Collins as the answer for the Titans at QB, even just for next season. I've seen too many of these older QBs pull it together for one season and then just not be able to sustain that success.
Maurice Morris to the Lions. All this tell us is (A) the Lions will not draft a running back on day one (B) Kevin Smith just tumbled about 10 spots in my fantasy RB rankings if this is any kind of a comittee situation, which I'm sure it is.
Stacy Andrews to the Eagles. I'm not sure what to make of this one. Andrews was a great prospect. I remember when the Bengals drafted him in the 4th round, he'd basically played a seaon or two of football and was raw as hell. But very talented athletically. And he's about 27 which makes him pretty young for an o-lineman. The question is, why did the Eagles sign him? I'm just assuming that his knee checked out well because Andrews tore his ACL and MCL back in December and just had the surgery to repair the injuries in early January. He was originally projected to be out until training camp but now claims he will be ready to go for mini-camps. I doubt it. Even if he wants to the team shouldn't let him. The other side of the coin here is that Stacy Andrews is the older brother of Shawn Andrews, All-Pro RG for the Eagles. Who missed training camp last year because of depression. And then missed all but 2 games of the season with a back injury. What effect did this have when the Eagles though about signing Andrews? More importantly, will it work? I don't think Stacy Andrews can really play LT which makes him the RT. Ditto Shawn Andrews who currently plays RG but was drafted to eventually play RT. Does this mean that the Eagles are bringing back Tra Thomas or drafting a LT in the first round? I think it actually might mean both.
Jeff Saturday re-signs with the Colts. A no-brainer for both sides. Saturday would not be nearly as effective in a different system and the Colts o-line looked terrible without him last season.
Jason Brown signs with the Rams. Brown was widely regarded as the best o-lineman available due to this age, skill set, experience and ability to play center or guard. What interests me were comments by his agent and another reported tidbit. His agent basically said that Brown wasn't interested in any tours or such, implying it was just about the money. Then the Rams came over the top and by far offered him the most money. And Brown went back to the Ravens (and possibly other teams) to try to get them to match the offer. When nobody would he took the Rams money. Does this sound like a guy who wants to be in St Louis? They've been terrible for the past two seasons but this is the NFL and everything can change quickly. I just can't see this ending well.
Jonathan Vilma re-signs with the Saints. Another no-brainer the Saints had to wait to re-sign Vilma until after free agency started to avoid having to give up a higher draft pick as a result of last years trade to acquire Vilma.
Bart Scott to the Jets. I've kinda turned around on this one. My first instinct was that linebackers leave the Ravens and never seem to play as well after. Adalius Thomas, Peter Boulware, Ed Hartwell, just to name a couple. All those guys actually got hurt soon after leaving the Ravens as well. To me that means that the Ravens are good at letting go of guys when their past their prime. But Scott is going to play for his d-coordinator from the Ravens Rex Ryan in the same defensive system. Instead of Ray Lewis he plays next to David Harris who is a very good young ILB. I would expect Scott to play at a high level for at least 2 more seasons for the Jets.
DeAngelo Hall re-ups with the Skins. Hall is a pretty good cover corner when properly motivated. I hope for his sake he gets it turned around and plays at a high level from here on out. But he seems like Haynesworth in that everybody is worried that he'll slack off when he gets paid. Fitting that the Redskins signed them both.
Brian Dawkins to the Broncos. Probably the biggest surprise, at least for me, in free agency thusfar. It was widely assumed that Dawkins would be back with the Eagles. He said it, the Eagles said it. Yet Dawkins signed a five year deal with Denver with $7.5 million guaranteed. It is believed that the Eagles were offering a 1-year $3 million dollar deal. Dawkins took a below-value deal last time around and wasn't about to do it again. It's hard to believe with all that cap room the Eagles lost their most beloved player over roughly $4 million dollars. I guess when you have 50,000+ people on your season ticket waiting list you can afford to just flip the finger to the fans once in a while.

Props to Scout.com for their Free Agency Tracker. I try to avoid linking to the Worldwide Leader all the time and none of the other major outlets had a good tracker that I could find. Although the blog coverage of free agency has been outstanding everywhere and it's really added a dimension as a fan. No more waiting for a new Sportscenter or breathlessly hitting the refresh button.

Durant leaves arena on crutches

2009-02-28T14:01:00.004-05:00

For one of my fantasy basketball teams those are basically the five worst words I could imagine hearing. There are plenty of other words I wouldn't want to hear, but "Durant leaves arena on crutches" is devastating. He was the centerpiece of my team, the guy who was going to continue to score out of his mind throughout the fantasy playoffs. I shouldn't be surprised considering how many NBA stars have fallen this season but just when I thought I was out..... The crazy part is how I got Durant. Got him maybe 6 weeks or so ago for (drum roll please) Ginobili and Bynum. I can't tell you how good that deal was working out for me. The really bad news is that the Thunder are terrible and it might dawn on them that: No Durant = More Losses = More Ping Pong Balls = Higher Draft Position. Why would they hurry Durant back? I hope he's back for the fantasy playoffs but if it's a bad high ankle sprain..... Just so you don't think I'm an asshole who was lucky to have Durant anyway:

I'm in 4 fantasy hockey leagues this year. I had Ryan Miller, Thomas Vanek and Brad Richards in 3 of the 4.

I'm in a bunch of fantasy basketball leagues. If you name an injured player I have him or have had him this season. Well not Gilbert Arenas. After last season, fool me once and all that jazz. And not McGrady, I'm just done with Tracy. But Bynum, Nelson, Ginobili, Kaman, Ellis, Maggette, Brand, Amare, Bosh, Boozer, Deron Williams, Carmelo, Bogut, Redd, Gerald Wallace..... You get the idea. It's just been bloodshed all season. If you just picked up all of the injured stars think about what your team would've looked like pre-season. Guaranteed championship right?

Bat Hits for Thursday, January 8, 2009

2009-01-08T11:03:00.005-05:00

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

2009-01-08T10:12:00.004-05:00

Before we get into this weeks picks let's look at how I did last week:

Cardinals (+2.5) vs Falcons - WINNER
Eagles (-3) @ Vikings - WINNER
Colts (-1) @ Chargers - LOSER
Ravens (-3) @ Dolphins - WINNER

Three outta four ain't bad. Plus the Indy pick looked good until very late. The boy Sproles really got it done. And the Colts shot themselves in the leg (which from now on will be known as Plaxico-ing or Burress-ing yourself) with all of the late defensive penalties. I personally think the defensive holding call was bullshit but I think the other calls were pretty legit, especially the face mask.

AFC

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Tennessee Titans
I'm making this pick assuming Ed Reed plays. If Ed Reed were to miss the game I may be inclined to lean towards the Titans, depending on how the line moves. At the end of the day let's just assume that both teams have moderate success running the ball. Give em each a TD and two red-zone possessions that Bironas and Stover convert. A nice boring 13-13 ball game. This game is going to come down to (1) Which team turns the ball over more (2) Which team converts its' red-zone possessions into TD's instead of field goals. Other than LenDale White, most of the Titans touchdowns have been of the 25+ yard variety. Only 1 or 2 of Justin Gage's touchdowns came on red-zone possessions and any fantasy football owner can tell you no other receivers or tight ends really scored touchdowns for the Titans. Then you've got Derrick Mason (playing lights out and hurt) back in Tennessee against his former team and Todd Heap who's actually looked pretty decent the past month or so. Don't forget that Flacco can tuck the ball and go a little bit too. I'll take the Ravens and points in that case. Tell you this though, if either team scores a special teams or defensive touchdown they win, game over. Also TAKE THE UNDER (35 POINTS) BEFORE THE LINE MOVES DOWN!

San Diego Chargers (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Quick disclaimer here, I'm pretty sure the Steelers win this game. But 6 points is just too many points to give right now with the firepower the Chargers have shown on offense. Not having LT will hurt put the Chargers have a couple of backs beside Sproles and I think they'll be able to at least put together a combined 100 yards. Considering the Steelers only give up 80 yards rushing a game, that ain't bad. I could see Sproles popping a return for big yardage as well. The Steelers secondary is good but not great. The Steelers pass rush has usually kept the secondary from having to cover for long periods of time. If the Chargers can slow down the rush of James Harrison and company Jackson, Gates and Chambers should be able to create separation or find spots to get open down-field. On the other side of the ball look at "Fast" Willie Parker. If the he shows up and gets his 100+ yards on 20+ carries I'm not sure that the Chargers can win unless the Steelers just self-destruct in the red-zone. The Chargers boast one of the worst statistical pass defenses in the league. Look for Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to go to down. Don't sleep on Heath Miller either, the Chargers are just about the WORST team in the league when it comes to covering the tight end. This just feels like a 24-20 victory by the Steelers. If you're going to make a bet this way get it in now, as more people take the Chargers and the points the line will most likely go down to where it should be around 3.5. While we're at it, go ahead and take the OVER at 38 points. If it gets up to about 41 or above you're on your own.

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ New York Giants
If you don't read Bill Simmons over on ESPN you should. He's got some great rules when it comes to betting in the playoffs. He's just one of the many, many people that would tell you that you're smoked picking against the world champs at home, coming off of a bye week. Here's my one stat I'll trot out today. Counting their game on November 20, 2005 the Giants and the Eagles have played 9 times. Why is November 20, 2005 significant? Because that's the last time the favorite covered. Seriously. In fact, in those nine games the favored team has only managed to win the game 3 times. I personally think this game should be Giants (-1.5) so I'm going against myself not to take the Eagles and the points. These are two teams that are built more similar than you would imagine. Both teams can rush the passer well, create turnovers and cover on the back end. I'd rather have the Giants defensive ends but other than that I'd actually give a slight edge to the Eagles at every other defensive position except I'd call middle linebacker a draw between Bradley and Pierce. On offense both teams have nice offensive lines with a slight edge to the Giants. The Giants also have the edge at running back but you'd be fool to discount Brian Westbrook or even Correll Buckhalter. Give me McNabb over Eli and the Eagles WR's over those of the Giants. Call Boss vs. Celek a wash. The Eagles also get the edge in special teams, both on coverage and returns. By my calculations that means I like the Eagles more than the Giants. But the Giants have home-field and the world champion swagger. Look for this one to be a more traditional NFC East game with lots of hitting and defense, but somehow lots of scoring at the same time. I'll take the OVER at 40 but I would hesitate to go much over 45.

Carolina Panthers (-10) vs Arizona Cardinals
Look at me picking a home team to cover. Truth be told, if I thought that Boldin was going to play at anything close to 100% I'd be taking the Cardinals. Again, not to win, but starting the game with 10 points is big. The Panthers are actually only 1-3 ATS (Against The Spread) at home this year, with one of those spread losses coming against the Cardinals. Arizona actually led for quite a while in that game and almost blew it at the end. The Cardinals did an excellent job against Michael Turner last week. But everybody forgets that Turner never really did a ton outside of a dome this year. He played (I believe) 11 of 16 games in a dome so you really didn't notice it that much. Stopping Williams and Stewart in Carolina is a whole different ballgame. Between those two and Steve Smith I think the Panthers have enough to win the game right there. For the Cardinals to win this game, Edge is going to have to turn back the clock. And keep spinning it backwards for a few years. If the Cardinals come out with a run/pass ratio of 30/70 or worse they're done. Even if the run game is ineffective they have to stick with it, especially without Boldin. James has to break at least 1 long TD run. The lack of a real tight end could also really bite the Cardinals in the ass this game. Give Arizona the special teams edge but it's just not enough. The Cardinals will make a game of this but if Warner does his thing and turns the ball over while trying to lead a comeback, the Panthers will cover. This is the hardest game to call as far as the under/over goes but if you stuck the proverbial gun to my head I'd take the UNDER at 49.

Betting lines courtesy of Bodog and are accurate as of Thursday, January 8, 2009 at 11 AM.

Early NFL Playoff Picks

2008-12-29T16:22:00.009-05:00

NFC

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
The Cardinals have been tough all year at home (6-2 SU) and seemed to turn a corner this Sunday, at least offensively. The Falcons should be able to run the ball against the Cardinals but Michael Turner has not been a Superman away from home or outside in general. The Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and it will be up to Matt Ryan to lead the Falcons to a road victory in the playoffs. Chalk this one up as a learning experience for the young Falcons who should be a force in the NFC South for the next decade with Matt Ryan at the helm. This Falcons team reminds me a lot of the Philadelphia Eagles team in 2000 with a young QB (McNabb) and relatively unknown coach (Reid).

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
This probably seems like the Captain Obvious pick after the Eagles destroyed the Cowboys but never write off a team with a superstar the caliber of Adrian Peterson. Unfortuneately the Eagles are well-coached enough to force the Vikings Tavaris Jackson to do enough to win the game. Does anybody really think Jackson is going to come through with Jim Johnson blitzing him damn near every play? The Vikings run defense is stout still but Pat Williams will not be 100% for this game and Andy Reid and the Eagles aren't going to primarily run the ball anyway. Unless Adrian Peterson can go for 200 yards and at least 2 scores I cannot see the Vikings pulling this one off, even at home, not matter how well Brad Childress knows Andy Reid and McNabb.

AFC

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at San Diego Chargers
Does anybody really want to bet against Peyton Manning right now? The Chargers may have shredded the Broncos defense but who hasn't? The Broncos defense might just be as bad as the Lions and that's saying something. San Diego has had a ton of problems in their secondary and their pass rush is severely weakened without Merriman. Plus the Colts are probably going to be as healthy for this game as they've been for any game all year. Do you really think a Norv Turner team is gonna get up for this game? Don't look now but LT is banged up again going into the playoffs. It's just too easy to see the Chargers sticking with LT at far less than 100% while their most dynamic weapon (Sproles) watches from the sideline.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Miami Dolphins
This is the closest game to pick this week. Miami turned the ball over fewer than any team in NFL history this year. The Ravens win most of their games by converting turnovers forced by their defense. How would the Ravens fare if their defense cannot get the ball or field position for the offense? What about Derek Mason's shoulder? In the end you have to think that both Flacco and Pennington take care of the ball. So that basically leaves the question of who can run the ball better and who can stop the run better. I believe that the answer to both questions is the Ravens. Giving the 3 points is pushing it a bit here because this could very easily be a 1 or 2 point game. These teams are very evenly matched. That Ravens D is a veteran unit with a lot of history together and Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are the unquestioned leaders of that team. I'm not sure that the Dolphins have a locker dynamic similar to that and the Dolphins are much younger as a team overall. Watch out for a Willis McGahee sighting, seemingly out of nowhere.

Fantasy Football Update

2008-06-07T14:34:00.002-04:00

Fox Sports Fantasy Football is now live. That means you can draft fantasy football teams now. Just remember, if you draft them, make sure you play them in September. Nobody likes dead teams. If you just want to practice drafting most sites now offer a "Mock Draft Lobby" where you draft but that's it.

Off to the track, lets hit them 'fectas!

Whurly.

Whurly = Worry + Early

The Belmont Stakes

2008-06-07T13:47:00.002-04:00

I'm not a professional handicapper. And as a handicapper my area of expertise is NFL money lines, not the ponies. But it's the sport of kings and it's amazing what a $1 superfecta can win. Big Brown is the prohibitive favorite (2-5, bet $5 to win $2) but he has issues. Think Curt Shilling's bloody sock type of issues. So I'm gonna take a crack at my top 4. I don't ask for much but if I give out the winners and you rake in the dollars, buy a round for the bar. OK?

WIN
Denis of Cork (12-1)

PLACE
Big Brown (2-5)

SHOW
Icabad Crane (20-1)

4TH
Anak Nakal (40-1)

There you go. Win, eat, drink at be merry. Remember, Big Brown is sponsored by Hooters. I don't know if they have any specials if he wins, but bug your waitress anyway. Girls love difficult guys.

Fantasy Sports News

2008-06-05T13:45:00.000-04:00

Check out who's open and who's not as of June 5th.

FANTASY BASEBALL

CBSSports.com (Until 7/17)
Yahoo Sports (Until 6/15)

FANTASY FOOTBALL

NFL.com (LIVE)
CBSSports.com (LIVE)
FOXSports.com (OFFLINE) (ALERT WHEN AVAILABLE)
Yahoo Sports (OFFLINE) (ALERT WHEN AVAILABLE)
ESPN.com (OFFLINE) (NO ALERT AVAILABLE)

Joba, Joba, Joba

2008-06-05T12:34:00.002-04:00

The latest Joba news

Johnny Damon questions Joba Chamberlain's move out of bullpen (Daily News)
Leaky pen with Joba a starter (Newsday)
A turning point in Chamberlain's career (NY Times)

I guess everybody has to take sides on this huh? Isn't there some way to stretch him out as a long reliever and keep him in the pen but spot start him every 10 days or so? If you can let Chamberlain pitch the 7th and 8th innings (maybe even the 6th on occasion) and turn the ball over Rivera the game is basically over in the 6th inning. But by using Joba for more inning less frequently he should be available to start should the Yankees suffer an injury in the rotation or they really need a spark. Doesn't that make more sense than starting him every 5 days when opponents know he's always going to be on some sort of pitch count?

Well that's my take on that, and yaameen.

The NBA Finals Begin. Finally.

2008-06-04T16:17:00.000-04:00

Well here we are. Every prognosticator on the planet is dropping his or her dime on who's going to win the NBA Finals. It's pretty easy for me. I always pick the best team to win. Maybe not to cover, but to win in the end. If you look back through the rest of the decade there's probably only one exception to this rule. That would be the Miami Heat beating the Detroit Pistons. But I write that off as Larry Brown's fault. Every team he's ever coached in the NBA has tuned him out after awhile, much more so than other coaches. That's why he's a coaching nomad. Do you really think he lasts longer than 2 years in Charlotte? Maybe 3. Max.

Anyhow, the Celtics are the best team. Kobe is the best player. We've heard all about how this is the best defensive team (Celtics) against the best offensive team (Lakers). I think we're all forgetting about who's not playing. That would be Andrew Bynum, center for the Lakers. For all of their talent, the Lakers are not a team built to bang under the hoop. They lack a shot-blocker in the paint and Lamar Odom is their best shot blocker. Gasol is a nice player but he's a finesse guy and KG will make him earn everything the hard way. The Celtics bench is far more experienced in these situations and does anybody put it past Sam Cassell to hit a game winner or two? This is what they got him for. The Lakers need the kids to do it in order to win. Kobe can try but if he gets frustrated, it's all over. So.....

Celtics in 5

I'm probably wrong. Most people are. The easy thing to do here is pick it to go 7 games or even 6. I think every game comes down to the last 3 minutes and it's just a matter of who scores last. In that situation I like the Celtics multitude of options better than I like the Kobe Show. I picked 5 games instead of a sweep because I'm sure Kobe will at bare minimum will the Lakers to at least 1 victory. So KG for MVP I guess.

I am in no way disparaging the Lakers. They're a helluva a team, I just think they arrived a year early. Give them a healthy Bynum, more experience for the kids and a veteran role player or 2 and they're the favorites next year. To win the whole thing, win or lose this year. A loss just delays the inevitable for the Lakers. The Celtics have maybe 2 more years after this left in their "window". I don't know if Jesus Shuttlesworth even has that long left in him. But that's alright, who doesn't want a He Got Game sequel? And you know Rick Fox needs work. He's the go to guy for a role player in a basketball movie.

It's Monday. If Only I Were Garfield. Or There Was Football Tonight

2008-06-02T09:00:00.001-04:00

It's So Monday And You Don't Even Know It Yet (Morning Edition)

Here's a great piece by Darren Rovell of CNBC.com about the last shot of Game 5 of the Spurs vs Lakers game. To recap the Lakers were up 5 as the clock expired and Laker Sasha Vujacic hit a "meaningless" 3 as time expired to help the Lakers win by 8? Guess what the spread was? You got it, 8 points at tip-off and it fluctuated to 7.5 at some sportsbooks.
It seems that the rumor that Matt Leinart could actually lose his starting job to Kurt Warner are heating up. And why not? Warner tossed 27 TD passes last season. Leinart got hurt and disappointed fantasy owners everywhere who had him as a sleeper tossing 27 TDs.
I know a bunch of guys who attended the Best Buy 400 at Dover yesterday. I don't do the NASCAR thing but they left at 5 AM and came back home bearing gifts as the sun set. By gifts I mean leftover food and beverages. They swore it was a great time and actually seemed to mean it. I doubt that I'd go but these are not guys you would ever see watching a race on TV so I'm assuming this means that the tailgating was so excellent the race was just an ancillary event.
We're not going to touch on Jason Taylor's press conference much. He wants a trade but does not want to destroy his image while pursuing a trade. He also claims that this is his last season in the NFL. My money is on him getting traded as training camps open for a conditional 2009 draft pick that can be no lower than a 4th and no higher than a 2nd. If you're still interested click here for more.
I'm going to hit all of the Detroit Piston shit right here, right now. It looks like Flip Saunders is staying. Can you imagine 'Sheed playing for Larry Brown under MJ? Could Rip Hamilton both be moving as well? That seems about right because I can't picture them trade Billups or Prince.
Can one kid single-handedly change the course of a season instantly? The early results are in and the test is positive. The kid is Jay Bruce and the team is the Cincinnati Reds.
Check out an entertaining bit on some dream position eligibility scenarios for fantasy baseball. Wow, I feel more like a stat geek from just having written that. And I'm not a huge sabermetrics guy. Yet.
Quick injury updates on Ryan Zimmerman, John Smoltz and David Ortiz.
More crap on the latest NFL team to be linked to Los Angeles. The worst part is the speculation will never end until there is a team in LA.
Looks like Gilbert Arenas is going to opt out. Odds are this is just a formality before he signs a multi-year deal with the Wizards. The only dark horses I can see are the Clippers or the Warriors. The Clippers would be interested if Brand and Maggette opt-out. The Warriors would offer a sign-and-trade scenario with Baron Davis and Arenas switching teams. Remember Arenas was originally a second-round pick of the Warriors and almost signed with the Clippers before heading to Washington.
Mike Lieberthal has officially retired as a Philadelphia Phillie. Here's a nice article about him from the Philadelphia Daily News.
Is Matt Holliday on his way out of Colorado?

The People's Champ Is Back?

2008-05-29T20:28:00.005-04:00

Let's preface this with the video of the play that makes him relevant.

That's right folks, Freddie Mitchell might be back. We've been here before though. With the Kansas City Chiefs and a few AFL teams. Let's be upfront here, I've never been much of a Freddy fan. Although he could celebrate a 4 yard catch on 3rd and 9 better than anybody I've ever seen. He was just a fool with no separation speed and never seemed to really get the offense down. Remember what Bill Belichick thought of him? As a fantasy football owner I hope Freddie makes the Ravens and kills but I somehow doubt it. But in light of all of this, he still has fans and a loyal following in Philly. I just hope he somehow ends up on the Dolphins and Bill Parcells fights him. 5 million unique hits on YouTube, no problem.

An Uncapped Year In The NFL

2008-05-29T15:24:00.006-04:00

If you have no idea about the current NFL labor situation read this before continuing any further or this will just be nonsense to you. (Courtesy of The Mile High Report)

A great primer for this post would be this article written by Michael Lombardi for SI.com. Within the article, Lombardi discusses how NFL teams should prepare for an uncapped year in 2010.

Lombardi basically states that due to the new restrictions there will be very few quality free agents available in 2010. Therefore teams should re-sign their own players ASAP and stockpile draft picks. There definitely is a great deal of logic to that approach. In fact, that is most likely the approach that 25-30 of the 32 NFL teams will take.

Let's be honest here. It's not like there have been oodles of quality free agents available the past few off-seasons. That's why we've seen an increased number of trades. Both of the trends are likely to continue in the future. But the possibility of an uncapped year looms and player agents are salivating. There will be at least a couple of very good players who elect not to re-sign with their current teams in order to hit the open (and uncapped market). Not that it doesn't happen currently but it should happen a bit more especially given the new service requirements necessary to become a free agent.

Remember there will also be no salary floor any longer. So you will have a few teams who will go for the Florida Marlins approach. They'll stockpile young talent and acquire a couple of short-term rentals if they're playing well. They won't re-sign their own players to big money deals until they have a new stadium. The Buffalo Bills immediately jump out at me as a team that would fit this profile.

I don't think that we will see a situation where a team goes out and spends $300 million to acquire 2 starters at every position. But teams with cash will now have the luxury of paying top dollar to multiple players at the same position. This allows you to have two #1 WRs, two #1 CBs, two #1 RBs and so on and so forth. It will also allow teams to sign higher priced role players they may not have been able to sign before. A high-revenue team can now spend $3 million on wedge-buster or $3.5 million for a punt returner. This is where teams will gain an edge.

So who's going to go for broke? As I stated earlier, most teams will concentrate on developing young talent and re-signing their own players for reasonable prices. But you can be sure that a couple of owners will go all Steinbrenner on us in an effort to buy a title. So who will the guilty parties be?

Dallas Cowboys. They have a new stadium opening in 2009. They have been awarded the Super Bowl in 2011. Jerry Jones is a very wealthy man and has never been afraid to spend money to win. This is the perfect storm right here. Check out how much it will cost to go to a Cowboys game. They will have a decent young core of players, a rich and willing owner and a spanking new stadium that will produce endless streams of revenue. You know that friend of yours who is an obnoxious Cowboys fan? Well, in a couple of years he's going to make your "won't shut up about all Boston sports teams" friend look like a quiet saint.
Washington Redskins. Owner Daniel Snyder has more money than Jerry Jones and has never been afraid to spend it. In fact, until recently the Redskins never really acknowledged that there was a salary cap until it came time to cut players and restructure contracts so that they could sign more players. The Redskins have one of the highest revenue producing stadiums in the league and have been among the league leaders in revenue since Snyder bought the team. The thought of Snyder and Jerry Jones going to a bidding war over players might be what ultimately gets the owners back to the negotiating table with the players.
Seattle Seahawks. That one surprised you a bit didn't it? Owner Paul Allen is the richest owner in the NFL. To the tune of over $20 billion. Not bad eh? The Seahawks got a new stadium in 2002 and have consistently spent money on free agents to try to get that elusive Super Bowl win. The Seattle fans are very passionate and the possible loss of the Supersonics will leave the Seahawks and the Mariners as the only games in town.
New England Patriots. It's not like the Patriots have been "Skimp Biggie" in the past decade but they could still pick up the pace. Owner Robert Kraft is very well off in the financial department. The Patriots have been winners all decade which has led to excellent revenue both from their fairly new stadium and merchandising. Couple that with the fact that most of the other big spenders will be in the NFC and Tom Brady will be in his mid-30's. This might be the last shot to buy another title or two before Tom Terrific hangs em up.
New York Giants/New York Jets. The New York teams are always at an advantage. Both teams have very wealthy owners and the teams are set to open an new stadium in, you guessed it, 2010. The Jets easily spent over $100 million this summer alone and the Giants have been very proactive in recent years on the free agent market. The Giants will also be trapped in the same division as the Cowboys and Redskins and the Jets will be stuck battling the Patriots in their division every year. So it's not like they'll need a lot of motivation to try to go the extra mile.
Houston Texans. Now that one made you look. Owner Robert McNair is loaded and Reliant Stadium is barely five years old. The Houston fans have always supported the franchise, despite never having sniffed the playoffs. The Texans have tried to spend money in free agency but just seem to end up wasting it. Plus there will be a palpable need to compete with the Cowboys to be Texas' Team. Years of being stuck behind Peyton Manning and the Colts might just be what sends them over the spending edge.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Are you really surprised? The Bucs and Jon Gruden in general have always loved their veteran players. The Glazer family, who own the team, are among the wealthiest owners in the NFL and have never hesitated to spend to win. Their stadium isn't even a decade old and they've always had strong fan support. This will also give Jon Gruden the opportunity to buy every QB over 35 who's on the market.

If your team's not on the list, don't panic. Very rarely does buying a championship actually work. The irony lost in all of this is the lack of a salary floor in an uncapped year. One team could have a $200 million payroll and another could have a $10 million payroll. The irony is that at the end of the day the total amount of the salaries paid to the players will actually increase. The number of large deals given out may ultimately decrease, but the value of these top end deals will be mind boggling. It's very possible that 2010 will see the NFL's first $200 million man. How is this going to help the owners save money?

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - K

2008-05-23T12:48:00.001-04:00

Here we go fantasy football. Over the next few days we will be posting our position rankings for the 2008 Fantasy Football season. Today we'll cover the Kicker position. Thanks to Cesar for being my sounding board.

JUNE RANKINGS

K

Seriously, don't draft a kicker until the last or second-to-last round of your draft. I'll give you a couple of guidelines so just apply them and pick one. You'll probably end up dropping him a week or two into the season when a free-agent kicker starts to separate himself from the crowd. I do this every year and I always end up with a top-5 kicker anyway. Look at Nick Folk for the Cowboys last year. DO NOT carry more than 1 kicker unless you start more than 1 kicker. Carry a handcuff for your QB or RB or take a shot on some crucial backup players instead of wasting a roster spot on a kicker. Or you can play "Musical Kickers" and just pick up a new one every week based on match ups. That works too.

Kickers who play in a dome have added value
Kickers who play in outdoor stadiums in the north lose value in December
Kickers for high scoring offenses are the safest bet for a couple of points every week
Kickers on teams with bad red-zone offenses offer the best chance for double digit points from your kicker
If your league awards extra points for longer field goals study the career distance numbers for all of the kickers. You want guys who have shown they can hit from 50+ yards.

It's just a kicker, draft one late and keep trying to upgrade via the waiver wire all season long. Never try to trade for a kicker. If somebody will give you a player of value for your kicker, do it. See, how hard was that?

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - TEAM DEF

2008-05-22T12:15:00.001-04:00

Here we go fantasy football. Over the next few days we will be posting our position rankings for the 2008 Fantasy Football season. Today we'll cover the Team Defense position. Thanks to Cesar for being my sounding board.

JUNE RANKINGS

TEAM DEF

San Diego Chargers
Minnesota Vikings
Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
Baltimore Ravens
New York Giants
Green Bay Packers
Oakland Raiders

JUST MISSED

Carolina Panthers
Washington Redskins
Tennessee Titans

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - TE

2008-05-21T11:57:00.002-04:00

Here we go fantasy football. Over the next few days we will be posting our position rankings for the 2008 Fantasy Football season. Today we'll cover the TE position. Thanks to Cesar for being my sounding board.

JUNE RANKINGS

TE

Antonio Gates
Jason Witten
Kellen Winslow Jr
Dallas Clark
Tony Gonzalez
Chris Cooley
Jeremy Shockey
Heath Miller
Ben Watson
Todd Heap
Alge Crumpler
LJ Smith
Donald Lee
Owen Daniels
Vernon Davis

JUST MISSED

Randy McMichael
Zack Miller
Tony Scheffler
Dustin Keller
Greg Olson

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - WR

2008-05-19T13:12:00.001-04:00

Here we go fantasy football. Over the next few days we will be posting our position rankings for the 2008 Fantasy Football season. Today we'll cover the WR position. Thanks to Cesar for being my sounding board.

JUNE RANKINGS

WR

Randy Moss
Reggie Wayne
Braylon Edwards
Terrell Owens
Larry Fitzgerald
Plaxico Burress
Marques Colston
Steve Smith (Carolina)
Torry Holt
Wes Welker
Anquan Boldin
TJ Houshmandzadeh
Roy Williams
Brandon Marshall
Marvin Harrison
Andre Johnson
Roddy White
Joey Galloway
Dwayne Bowe
Santonio Holmes
Donald Driver
Greg Jennings
Kevin Curtis
Hines Ward
Lee Evans
Bobby Engram
Calvin Johnson
Joey Porter
Bernard Berrian
Chad Johnson

JUST MISSED

Derrick Mason
Jericho Cotchery
Laveranues Coles
Chris Chambers
Santana Moss

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - RB

2008-05-18T12:01:00.002-04:00

Here we go fantasy football. Over the next few days we will be posting our position rankings for the 2008 Fantasy Football season. Today we'll cover the RB position. Thanks to Cesar for being my sounding board.

JUNE RANKINGS

RB

LaDainian Tomlinson
Brian Westbrook
Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)
Steven Jackson
Joseph Addai
Marion Barber III
Larry Johnson
Willie Parker
Maurice Jones-Drew
Willis McGahee
Clinton Portis
Frank Gore
Brandon Jacobs
Jamal Lewis
Michael Turner
Reggie Bush
Marshawn Lynch
Laurence Maroney
Thomas Jones
Ronnie Brown
LenDale White
Chester Taylor
Fred Taylor
Ernest Graham
Julius Jones
Edgerrin James
Ryan Grant
Jonathan Stewart
Travis Henry
Darren McFadden
Cedric Benson
Rudi Johnson
Rashard Mendenhall
Justin Fargas
DeAngelo Williams
Matt Forte
Ladell Betts
Ahman Green
TJ Duckett
Chris Brown

JUST MISSED

Felix Jones
DeShaun Foster
Warrick Dunn
Steve Slaton
Jerious Norwood

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - QB

2008-05-17T12:41:00.002-04:00

Here we go fantasy football. Over the next few days we will be posting our position rankings for the 2008 Fantasy Football season. Today we'll cover the QB position. Thanks to Cesar for being my sounding board.

JUNE RANKINGS

QB

Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Tony Romo
Matt Hasselbeck
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Derek Anderson
Donovan McNabb
Carson Palmer
David Garrard
Marc Bulger
Eli Manning
Jay Cutler
Jason Campbell
Philip Rivers

JUST MISSED:

Jeff Garcia
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Schuab
Jon Kitna
Joe Flacco

So They Got D'Antoni. They're Still The Knicks. They Still Have Isiah.

2008-05-15T12:07:00.005-04:00

I didn't come right out with this because I wanted to reflect a bit first. I've already stated my opinion on this from the Suns should have kept D'Antoni angle. So know I'm going to look at it from the Knicks end of things. Or at least give it the old college try.

The Knicks have 3 basic options right now.

The status quo. They trade youth for veterans or take on more contracts. Most likely this involves trading Marbury's huge (approx $20 million) expiring contract for players with multiple years left on their deals. They got D'Antoni to run this circus and they "retool" on the fly trying to take a shot in the always weak East. LeBron and D-Wade are not factors in the Knicks future because in this scenario the Knicks are capped out (and over the luxury tax line) for the next 5-7 years.
The nuclear option. Hold onto Marbury's contract for dear life, unless you can package it with Randolph's albatross of a deal and take back contracts that only have 2 years left. Extend only David Lee's contract. Do not trade for anybody with more than 2 years left on their deal. Do not sign any players, other than your draft picks, to more than a 2 year deal. Stockpile draft picks and cap space. D'Antoni's job is to develop the draft picks and any other young talent while keeping the fans entertained. And sane. The Knicks land LeBron or D-Wade and one more good player in a couple summers. Veterans sign on the cheap. The Knicks hope they can win a couple of titles. They are well over the luxury tax and have no cap room for a decade. But they have LeBron.
The half-assed option. The Knicks attempt to "rebuild on the fly" while stockpiling cap space for the LeBron and D-Wade pipe dream. Contracts with 2 seasons left hold more value than draft picks. Most of the young talent the Knicks have is traded away because they can't extend contracts while trying to pay veterans to field and competitive team and stockpile cap space. From a business standpoint this is by far the best option. You try to make a deep playoff run or two and then land LeBron. This allows you to REALLY pump up prices. This scenario also comes with the greatest risk. If you don't land LeBron you're handcuffing your ability to compete by not using money to add to your current team. Cap space isn't all it's cracked up to be. Look at Rashard Lewis' contract. He's a nice player, but come on. By doing this you basically ensure that you will not field the best team possible and you will not have massive amounts of cap space.

So why did they get Mike D'Antoni? For the record I'm scared to add up how much money the Knicks have paid to coaches over the last few years. Anyway, what is D'Antoni's objective/role going to be? We'll check it out in each of the above scenarios.

Donnie Walsh will bring in the veteran type players that fit D'Antoni's system/philosophy. They will expect him to build a team very similar to the one that he had in Phoenix the past few seasons. The team will have high expectations and will be expected to compete at a high level from day one. The Knicks as a team will get smaller and faster. This is a high pressure coaching situation. One losing season and one first round playoff exit in the first two seasons will not be an acceptable outcome. This is the approach used by Isiah when he took over the Knicks, which is why I feel that it is the least likely to happen. This will be the scenario favored by fans because it will be blatantly obvious that the Knicks are "going for it" right away.
This is probably the dream scenario for D'Antoni. The Knicks acknowledge that they're gearing up for a big free agency score in a couple of years and they get to work trimming the fat. D'Antoni's job is to figure out who fits in his system and develop all of the young talent that he can. Expectations are realistic and a first round playoff exit or two will seem like progress as opposed to a disappointment. This is similar to the approach used by the Sixers after they dealt Iverson away. Given the state of the Eastern Conference, anything is possible. If the Knicks strike lottery gold they could get good in a hurry. D'Antoni will be expected to be in the conference finals, if not the Finals in the last year of his deal.
Danger Billy King, Danger! This is the most dangerous scenario because it can lead you through a rebuilding process that takes you from here to win it now to blow it up. That pretty much destroys your team for the better part of a decade. The young players will not get enough time to properly develop or for them to be evaluated. Veterans will all be playing for their next contract which can lead to a lot of conflict and selfishness. D'Antoni will be the ringmaster, trying to balance out the young and the old and those with contracts and those without. If the team does ok the temptation will be to make a move or two to go for it now. If the team struggles it will be that much harder to blow it up after you've already added players and salary. This scenario never seems to be carried out successfully in the NBA.

So there's my thoughts on that. What are the Knicks rebuilding from? They haven't been a true contender this decade. Who are the building blocks upon which they build their team? The coach and the GM? David Lee. Is he your best player? Are Curry and Randolph worth anything? Does D'Antoni really want either of them? Does anybody? What about Jamal Crawford? He's quietly been their most consistent player when healthy. Can they really welcome Marbury back into the fold? What a mess.

That's the bottom line. A bloody debacle, it is. My best guess as to what happens? They hang on to Marbury's contract. They ship Randolph for anything that expires inside of three years. They use Crawford to dump another bad deal. They'll try to pump up the value of Nate Robinson and the rest of Isiah's young guns. They miss the playoffs for the next two seasons. Unless they hit lottery gold. In that case all bets are off.

What a world, what a country. The Knicks still have a chance. Wow.

From the horse's mouth.

Everything the Patriots Accomplished Since 2000 is Tainted

2008-05-13T12:02:00.003-04:00

Now that we've seen some of the SpyGate tapes it's official. The Patriots were cheating. From at least 2000 until last September. Now why would they continue such a practice for so long, even if they thought it was legal? Obviously because they were finding the practice useful. Which means they were gaining some sort of advantage. By doing something against the rules. That is by definition, cheating.

The tapes show VERY clear shots of the opposing teams coaches sending in signals. With shots immediately after of the scoreboard to determine the situation in the game. The only reason to do all of this is to be able to know what a defense is going to do based on the situation and the signals from the sideline. If Tom Brady gets that information that's a ridiculously unfair advantage.

We cannot assume that the Patriots are alone in taping signals or cheating in general. But they got caught. And they've been very successful during the duration in which it was proved they were cheating. If we found out that the Lions had been cheating for the last decade nobody would care. In fact that would by hysterical. But for now:

Barry Bonds TO HR Records IS Patriots TO 3 Super Bowls

Fantasy Baseball - Waiver Wire Wesley Snipes

2008-05-13T09:25:00.004-04:00

It's an odd reference but remember, before he was in jail, before he was Blade, before he knew Billy Ho couldn't jump, he was Willie Mays Hayes. The base-stealing machine out of nowhere. We're not primarily concerned with steals, any production is good production. We're going to look at a few guys who either went very late in drafts or were undrafted for the most part. What we want to know is:

How good have they really been so far?
Will they be the starter all year, barring injury?
What is their real value?
Who might you be able to get back in a trade for them?
Can they really keep this up?

Justin Upton - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks - .326 22 R 6 HR 19 RBI 0 SB
Yeah, I started with an easy one. I absolutely love this kid and expect numbers just like his brother BJ. He'll be a fixture in the starting lineup for years and he is just scratching the surface of his potential. The steals will come and he will develop more power as he gets older. Great keeper league guy and he'll be a high fantasy pick next year. I don't think I would trade or drop him unless something absolutely ridiculous was available. His average might drop slightly but if he gets a few steals it's a wash. If you can trade for this guy, go do it now.

Carlos Quentin - OF - Chicago White Sox - .288 26 R 9 HR 29 RBI 3 SB
Early on he was just keeping the spot warm for Jerry Owens. I really don't think that is the case anymore. He's proving to be an excellent source for HR and RBI. He is one of the few White Sox really doing anything offensively this year. I could see him only batting around .250-.260 but 30 HR, 90 RBI and 10 SB is very realistic. His upside is even higher. That being said, if you can get a Justin Upton, Jason Bay, Matt Kemp or something in that ballpark, I'd do it. I just think the White Sox implode at some point and it will ruin a lot of their players' value.

Nate McLouth - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates - .307 31 R 9 HR 29 RBI 3 SB
Now do those numbers seem familiar or what? To be honest, I like McLouth better. I don't think he has the power that he's showing now but I think he'll end up with 20 SB, 100 RBI and bat over .290 so that works for me even with only 20 HR. He's gotten a couple of nights off recently but he's not going anywhere. He'd be a good guy to put up on the block if you need pitching help because he does some of everything and owners are always interested in those guys.

Xavier Nady - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates - .340 22 R 5 HR 34 RBI 1 SB
This guy. Don't call it a comeback. Nady has been kicking around for a hot minute because it just never all clicked for him. Dude must have switched to the Clapper or something because he's been scorching hot. BUT. He's not going to steal bases. 5 SB, tops. He's not going to hit HR, 20 at the absolute most. And do you really think that he's going to bat .340 for the season? He might have 100 RBI in his future this year but I feel that is his main value. So unless you need RBI help I would be trying to sell on Nady right now. Find a team with a poor AVG and fewer RBI and try to trade for a more proven commodity.

Geovany Soto - C - Chicago Cubs - .315 16 R 6 HR 26 RBI 0 SB
Finally, a non-outfielder! And he's a catcher! Do you realize how hard it is to find a good, reliable catcher for fantasy baseball? There's usually about 7-8 of them. So anytime you find a new one, it's a double bonus. It looks like the Cubbies are gonna score some runs this year and Soto will be there for a lot of them. He'll get a few days off here and there but I think his numbers are right on pace for where they'll end up. He can hit .300 with 25 HR and 100 RBI. Take that every day of the week. Only trade or drop him for an upgrade at catcher, which means on of the top 5 catchers period.

Kevin Youkilis - 1B/3B - Boston Red Sox - .322 27 R 8 HR 30 RBI 2 SB
Alright let's get some things straight. Youkilis is on this list because his average draft position was 178 in ESPN Fantasy Drafts. That's roughly a 17th round pick. Then look at his numbers. Trust Billy Beane. If you've ever ready Moneyball (if you haven't) you know that Beane was obsessed with acquiring Youkilis. The Greek God of Hitting, he called him. I always thought that he hit for average and played good defense and offered little else. In fact I had him in 2 leagues this year and sold high on him after 2 weeks. Oops. He's a fixture in the starting lineup and will have at least 90 RBI and bat .300. But I think his power numbers are inflated right now and the stolen bases are an aberration. If you can get somebody to toss you say Miguel Cabrera or something that highly valued, do it. Or the other strategy is find a team owner who is a Red Sox fan and sell really high on Youkilis. Or find an owner who is a Yankee fan and get him to sell low on Youkilis.

Conor Jackson - 1B - Arizona Diamondbacks - .325 27 R 5 HR 30 RBI 3 SB
He's getting it done. The 1B job is his and he was a highly touted prospect. The kid can hit and I would look for .300 with 100+ RBI. He doesn't have a ton of power but can steal a few bases. Basically he's above-average for a 1B for SB but below-average for power. He's nice guy to hang onto, especially given Arizona's performance so far this season. That being said, if you can use Jackson as the centerpiece to get a top of the line pitcher or a big power hitting 1B like Ryan Howard I would do it.

Carlos Gomez - OF - Minnesota Twins - .268 21 R 2 HR 13 RBI 16 SB
Here's a guy that's all over the place. He started out the season on fire, then went into a huge slump and was on the verge of losing his job. Then he hits for the cycle. He's also been banged up a bit injury wise. He's great for SB and I would rather have Gomez than Michael Bourn. Still, he would be a sell-high guy for me right now. Unless you need the steals.

Ryan Church - OF - New York Mets - .319 28 R 7 HR 26 RBI 1 SB
Those stats look pretty good don't they? I just don't trust Church yet for some reason. I don't think he can play any better than he is right now. I don't see him hitting .300 and if he slumps he might lose his job, at least for a hot minute. If you can find a Mets fan in love with Church or you can get a more established guy with similar numbers I would do it.

We'll get to some more of these guys later. If you didn't notice I don't really waste too much time talking about players I don't like. But I obviously haven't mentioned everybody I like so if I missed somebody, I just might not have gotten that far yet.

NBA Playoff Thoughts

2008-05-12T12:43:00.005-04:00

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(2) Detroit Pistons vs (3) Orlando Magic

Pistons lead the series 3-1 (My Pick - Orlando over Detroit in 7 games)

How do you really call this one? You had the shot that happened but shouldn't have counted. Chauncey Billups went down and the Pistons won anyway. Detroit flat out won Game 1. This series could go either way still.
Jameer Nelson has said something that's usually reserved for Rasheed Wallace.
I don't think the Magic have their "point guard of the future" on their current roster.
This is Detroit's last deep run with this current group. Maybe they add somebody but I can see a trade coming in the near future. Joe Dumars is always ahead of the curve.
Dwight Howard flashes but cannot yet sustain dominance for long stretches. He will eventually though.
The Magic need to pay Turkoglu. 3 years/$30 million sounds about right. But his agent will look at his production vs the production of Rashard Lewis. Then he'll look at the contract the Magic gave Lewis. Turkoglu will cost the Magic the luxury tax if they keep him.

(1) Boston Celtics vs (4) Cavaliers

Celtics lead the series 2-1 (My Pick - Boston over Cleveland in 5 games)

LeBron is on his own. If he's gonna be Batman he needs some help. His Batman would ride a mountain bike, have a Swiss Army Knife as his main weapon and his only sidekick would be a 12 year-old Batgirl. At least Larry Hughes could resemble a heroin-addicted Robin when he was on.
All that being said I like Delonte West. He'll most likely never play in an All-Star Game but he'll be a solid player in the league for the next decade.
Will the Cavs offer Ben Wallace a buyout this summer?
Sam Cassell can still do it. Rajon Rondo is playing excellent basketball but Cassell is a born closer. He's made Ray Allen an ancillary player at this point.
Don't forget, Ray Allen is Jesus. Jesus Shuttlesworth.
I don't think Paul Piece misses Antoine Walker. Does anybody?

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(2) New Orleans Hornets vs (3) San Antonio Spurs

The series is tied 2-2 (My Pick - San Antonio over New Orleans in 7 games)

New Orleans came out strong and San Antonio took their sweet time to get going. No shit huh? This is vintage Spurs basketball. Let's hope New Orleans didn't blow their load too early.
Manu Ginobili is a game-changer. Nice move by Popovich to stick him in the starting lineup to change things up. Ginobili just has so much energy on both ends of the court that makes his teammates better. Similar to the KG Effect on the Celtics.
Chris Paul is the future. He and Deron Williams are going to have battles for the ages. Imagine if LeBron and D-Wade ended up in the West.....
David West is another underrated guy. If he just continues to develop a bit each year he'll be a 20-10 guy without a problem. And I mean a REAL 20-10 guy who's a threat in the post and a legitimate beast on the glass. Not just a guy who grabs some long rebounds and scores some garbage time points.
Tony Parker continues to be rock-solid. While rarely spectacular he makes very few mistakes and his jumper gets a little better every year. Plus he's always come to play in the playoffs. He's Tim Duncan's perfect setup man.

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (4) Utah Jazz

Series is tied 2-2 (My Pick - Utah Jazz in 7 games)

If Kobe's back is really hurt the Lakers are in too deep. Neither Gasol or Odom do well as the primary offensive option. Kobe keeps defenses honest. If he can't hit his outside jumper or get to the hole at will as he normally does, the Jazz can sag off of him in their defense.
Deron Williams has bad luck. If it weren't for Chris Paul he would get a lot more publicity. He makes the Jazz go.
It just doesn't feel like it's time yet for the Lakers. Gasol has worked out very well but give Phil Jackson one more season. I fully expect the Lakers to be the #1 seed again next year.
If you had to pick right now which Dukie would you want, Carlos Boozer or Elton Brand? Cleveland really screwed the pooch on that one didn't they?

Fantasy Football Already?

2008-05-06T22:10:00.003-04:00

I haven't gotten to do a fantasy sports post in a hot minute so let us get down. We're going to make some assumptions here.

Standard scoring league (as opposed to PPR) (PPR = Points Per Reception)
10 teams in a 16 round draft
Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 1 RB/WR Flex, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Team DEF
Non-keeper league
No IDP's (Individual Defensive Players)

When ever I do a fantasy football post these will be the assumptions that I am operating under unless I say otherwise. I should probably do something smart like put these somewhere where they can always be easily seen. If I was smart I'd be a "real" writer and not a blogger right?

We're going to get the fantasy football stuff done by June so everything can be updated easily after June 1st cuts (if any), training camp and the preseason.

Welcome to the intro. Thank you for reading the intro. Please remember. If it makes it easier, all of my assumptions are the same as an ESPN or Yahoo standard league. Um kay?

NHL Stuff. Really.

2008-05-06T13:30:00.002-04:00

Some NHL stuff because I've been neglecting hockey for basketball lately.

Jaromir Jagr might very well be done as an NHL player. He says he's going to play next year, but unless he takes a huge pay cut, which would shock me. If he will take said pay cut don't be surprised if he lands with one of the teams that are still alive in the playoffs. A return to Pittsburgh for 1 more Cup sounds about right don't it?
He's retired more times than Jay-Z or Jordan but I think it's about time to stick a fork in Dominick Hasek. He was one of the greatest goalies of his era, a surefire Hall of Famer and an MVP who personally carried an offensively challenged Buffalo Sabres team for over half of a decade. His mind my be willing but his body is broken down. Helluva a competitor, it wouldn't surprise me if he still tries to play in the Olympics, regardless of his NHL status.
It would never be a popular subject but it might be time for the NHL to consider contraction (reducing the # of teams) or relocation. The league stretched itself too thin by over-expanding in the last 15 years. Too many teams led to too little talent, which led teams to overpay for players, which led to the year off and new CBA. Hit it here for the NHL attendance figures. If I had to pick 4 teams they would be Atlanta, Phoenix, Columbus and Nashville. Delete the 4 teams and hold a mini-draft with those players. Or move all 4 teams to real hockey markets. Go back to your roots. Try maybe Winnipeg, Las Vegas, Seattle and Ontario. Canada would get 2 more teams which is a no-brainer, Seattle has market hole with the SuperSonics leaving and being the first professional team in Vegas would give you instant market share.
I like Wayne Gretzky, coach/executive about as well as I liked Magic Johnson coach/executive. That's not saying much. At least Johnson is an excellent businessman. Gretzky just has his wife place bets for him. Just playin. Maybe.
Buffalo averaged the second highest average game attendance. Buffalo has let go of almost every key player they had over their 2 year Eastern Conference Finals run. They are young and talented but they have almost no veteran leadership that's not on the coaching staff. Sorry Sabres fans. If y'all don't go to the games the team will have to leave town. Tough situation for great fans.
Watch out for the Boston Bruins next year. They've got some pieces and any New England area team seems to able to do no wrong lately.
The NHL has to do something about the Vs. situation. The network has tried very hard but it's still difficult to find the channel in some markets. I've never liked their announcers very much and they still haven't mastered how to properly film and broadcast the games. They've improved but not enough. I'm not one to shill for the Worldwide Leader but having the games on ESPN2 or something would've been much better for the NHL.

NHL Playoffs. Conference Finals. Fight.

2008-05-06T11:04:00.007-04:00

We'll get right to the picks son.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Pittsburgh over Philadelphia (6 Games)

I feel like a hater but Pittsburgh is playing so well right now in all facets of the game. Philly has been carried by timely goals and excellent goaltending.
The Flyers have to come out fast in Game 1. If they play poorly the Philly fans will begin to turn on them quickly. If the Flyers go down 0-2 expect the sweep. On the flip side, if the Flyers dominate Game 1, the talk amongst Philly fans will only be about whether this is the best team every in history.
The Flyers have been involved in 6 one-goal games so far in the playoffs. They are 3-3 in those games.
The Flyers have lost the first game of each of their first to series' by 1 goal.
The Penguins have been involved in 2 one-goal games so far. They're 2-0.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Detroit over Dallas (7 Games)

The Red Wings are due. It's been almost a decade since their last Cup. Well since 2001-02 to be exact.
The Dallas Stars won their last Stanley Cup in 1999. In triple-overtime. In Game 6. With Brett Hull's skate clearly in the crease (in violation of the rules at that time) during the winning goal.
Dallas has played well in the playoffs but they've never shown the ability to dominate for stretches like Detroit has.
The last team to win the Stanley Cup with a sweep in the finals was the Detroit Red Wings. They did it back to back years in 1996-97 and 1997-98.
The Detroit Red Wings won the Presidents' Cup Trophy (best regular season record) this season. Guess who was the last team to win the Presidents' Cup and the Stanley Cup in the same season? That would be in the Detroit Red Wings in 2001-02.

Well there you have it. That was quick and painless right? Well at least she told me it was. Because that's what she said. That's funny right? C'mon that's more than half decent.

Here's the Brett Hull Goal. Just because.

NBA Playoffs. Round 2. Fight.

2008-05-05T20:51:00.008-04:00

We'll make this simple. Embellishment is the cement that holds bloggers together so it's tough to be succinct.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Orlando over Detroit (7 Games)

Detroit might say that they got "woke up" by Philly, but the Sixers took something out of them and exposed a few flaws.
Orlando has the deadly shooters that Philly did not
As unguardable as 'Sheed can be, Dwight Howard is flat out unstoppable when motivated
I just don't see Detroit getting it done
If you told me Detroit won I wouldn't be surprised but what the hell

Boston over Cleveland (5 Games)

I like Boston's bench a lot better, especially if Sam-I-Am gets going. Nobody on the Cav's bench really does anything for me.
Don't underestimate Kendrick Perkins. He's been playing very well thus far in the playoffs.
LeBron can't do it alone. Unless he's shooting 60% from the floor and 50% from 3 for the series, he's in trouble. The Celtics play excellent team D
Unlike Detroit, I think Atlanta pushing Boston will be beneficial. Wining the first two games in blowout fashion gave the Celtics a false sense of confidence.
Do you really think Wally World is gonna get it done? And don't you think KG will take just a little bit of pleasure in knocking out his former second banana?

WESTERN CONFERENCE

San Antonio over New Orleans (7 Games)

Chris Paul is that good.
David West is severely underrated. That always makes for excellent motivation in the playoffs. If he forces the Spurs to guard him with Duncan and he can get Duncan in foul trouble, all bets are off.
That being said, San Antonio has been here, done that. Do you really think that they can be shaken easily?
Tim Duncan hitting that 3 in Game 1 against the Suns. That changed everything. Call it an omen.
Experience will win out in the end, but the Spurs will be running on empty heading into the conference finals.
And just for old times sake, mark Big Shot Bob Horry to hit a huge one before this series is over.

Utah over Los Angeles (7 Games)

This isn't a trendy pick. I've liked Utah all year and the might be the most balanced team in the league. They can play any style and they play Jerry Sloane's trademark good D
Lamar Odom. He is the x-factor. He's always been supremely talented although injury prone. He's the third option here and he needs to thrive.
No Andrew Bynum. His presence in the post would help Gasol and in turn Odom out immensely. He's also the Lakers main shot blocking presence.
Kobe needs a year with these guys. Chemistry is not created overnight for a basketball team. No matter who wins the Finals this year mark the Lakers down as the favorite as the season begins next year.
Deron Williams is also scary good. There will be some legendary battles between him and Chris Paul before their careers are over.
Watch out for Kyle Korver, the Utah fans love him and the boy can shoot the lights out.

See that's wasn't that long winded at all.

Draft Zach Feinstein

2008-05-05T15:00:00.003-04:00

Click the post title. Seriously. I've always wanted to declare for the NBA but I was under the impression that it cost money. Like $50 or $100 or something. I never did get around to doing it. But Zach Feinstein did. Just sit back and hope that he gets drafted on accident. Or on purpose but I highly doubt it.

Roger Clemens

2008-05-05T13:34:00.004-04:00

So Roger Clemens finally made a right move today He apologized for 'making mistakes in his personal life'. Of course he said there were only small amounts of truth mixed in with all sorts of other lies. So he really hasn't made any progress at all has he?

I am, was and always will be a Roger Clemens fan. That's Roger Clemens the baseball player. He was a tremendous talent, an exciting pitcher, a good quote and one of the most fierce competitors to every play baseball. That same competitiveness that drove him as a pitcher has destroyed him as a public figure. Let's be up front about something. There are worse things than steroids and adultery. I'm not condoning either but be honest with yourself. Are those things worse than stealing, beating your spouse, drug abuse or DUI? Lying to Congress is a whole other thing but I'll get to that.

Clemens did not want to become Barry Bonds. When he was implicated in the Mitchell Report he went into full spin control ala-Bill Clinton. Ironically, this was basically the same thing that Barry Bonds did when the BALCO shit hit the fan. This was the wrong move. I can't believe that Clemens was advised to do so but he did. He went on a full out media blitz to issue complete denials. He was a character assassin, claiming it was him against a world of liars. As we've seen, this has all blown up in his face. He had other options.

He could've taken the very unsexy McGuire option and chosen to say nothing. He would be hammered in the public eye in the short-term but it would've worked out far better in the long run. Plus he would not be subject to possible perjury charges and defamation lawsuits.

Or he could've simply read from his (former) buddy Andy Pettitte's script. Admit to some minimal use of HGH to attempt to treat injuries, say it was a horrible mistake but he felt that so many other players were doing it (without naming names) that thought he needed to do whatever it took to be the best. After all he was such a competitor we all would've bought that right? Nobody would've been singing his praises as a role model but there would've been some quiet support for his honesty. He could've rode out the storm for a couple of years as more information comes into the public eye and we all realize how many players were on something. He probably still would've made the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. And it wouldn't have cost him a dime in lawyer fees.

A couple of other points here

Roger Clemens' lawyer is Rusty Hardin. By all accounts he is an excellent lawyer. I cannot believe that he advised Clemens to take this course unless Clemens swore to him he was completely innocent and would settle for nothing less than complete exoneration. When (if) Clemens is charged with perjury it would be wise for them to part ways.
This is America. Roger Clemens is innocent until proven guilty. Of a crime. Technically, performance enhancing drug were not against the rules of baseball, hence they did not test for them. So this is an opinion question about what is morally right or wrong. Therefore we are entitled to be of the opinion he is guilty regardless of the current evidence or lack thereof.
So far there have been no other inaccuracies in the Mitchell Report. Including all of the information that comes from those Clemens has accused of lying. So we are asked to believe that Clemens is the victim of an elaborate conspiracy. Everybody else is guilty but not Roger.
I won't believe another word Jose Canseco says. He blew his load with his first book and he realizes that now. He should've saved something for future books but he didn't. So he's just blowing air for cash.
No matter how desperate the Yankees get they will not offer Clemens a job this time.
Clemens opened himself up to the attacks on his personal life by challenging the character of his accusers. He's portrayed himself as the all-American family man and he obviously knew he wasn't. Being a professional athlete is a job and lifestyle so I'm sure the adultery rates are much higher than they are for a male with an average job. But if you attack others you open yourself up to attack.

All things being said I'm not sure how this is gonna end. We won't know anything until the first steroids tainted player makes it into the Hall of Fame. Then a decision will have to be made about how to deal with the great players of the Steroid Era. My guess is that Clemens eventually gets into the Hall of Fame but not for at least a decade. He and Bonds will end up going in together at some point, probably with Big Mac. Yet Pete Rose will still be up the street from the Hall in Cooperstown, signing autographs and wondering where it all went wrong.

Trajan Langdon Lives

2008-05-05T10:00:00.000-04:00

Seriously, doesn't the title say it all? Well you probably did think Trajan Langdon was dead. But maybe because he was the "Alaskan Assassin" you could've thought that he was in jail or something. But he's not. In fact he plays for CSKA Moscow in the Euroleague. And they won the Euroleague finals this year. And Langdon was the Finals MVP. Not to shabby eh? Check out his stats if you like.

For those who don't know, Langdon starred at Duke in college. He had a typical Duke career including a traveling violation with seconds left in the national final trailing UConn by a point. He was drafted 11th overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers in 1999. He lasted 3 season before heading for Europe. Like I said, a typical Duke career. Imagine if he and Dajuan Wagner had panned out. The Cavaliers would not have LeBron right now. Maybe it was for the best.

I'm really impressed by how Langdon has handled himself and how honest he is. He could come back and catch on with an NBA team, if for no other reason, he can shoot the 3. But he'd be a situational player, buried on a bench somewhere. In Europe, he's a star. Big fish in a little pond and all that jazz. The thing is, he's cool with that. He's expressed no desire to return to the NBA. Although if he gets enough attention Mark Cuban will probably give him a call.

Did you know that Langdon was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 6th round in 1994? Did anybody? Well he was. Not sure what that really means but it's somehow impressive. Remember the baseball draft has just short of a thousand rounds. Well, almost. I've never been a Duke guy but I've always ended up following their players in the NBA. Just to watch the flameouts I guess. Who knows if anybody besides myself finds this interesting but I've always wondered what happens to professional athletes when they drop off of the radar. It seems that Langdon is doing much better than Nate Newton and a bunch of others.

MLB All-Star Game Tickets (Yankee Stadium)

2008-05-05T08:00:00.001-04:00

Click the post title to enter MLB's lottery for All-Star Game tickets. It doesn't cost anything to sign up and if you win and don't want them, give them to me. Or to StubHub and make yourself a buck or a thousand.

Iron Man

2008-05-05T07:45:00.001-04:00

I have to say I really enjoyed Iron Man. I see so few movies at the theater and this one was worth it. I could see the sequel being even better. I'll admit that I'll most likely be seeing the new Indiana Jones movie in a theater as well. I try to avoid trailers for movies that I want to see but I watched the trailer in the previews before Iron Man and it looked pretty bad ass. So I'll be dat. I was upset that Ghostface Killah's cameo was cut from Iron Man. Thankfully that's what DVD's are for. If you are going to see Iron Man stay for a bonus after the credits. It's worth it.

Yankees Stuff. Evil Empire Haters Be Warned.

2008-05-04T22:30:00.006-04:00

Finally made it out to Yankee Stadium for the first time in over a decade. We'll get the logistics out of the way first. The game was Sunday and the Yankees won 8-2 to complete a sweep of the Seattle Mariners. Darrell Rasner assumed Phil Hughes' spot in the rotation and got the start after being called up from AAA. Adrian Beltre belted a 2-run homer to left in the first inning, but that was all the Mariners got. Rasner pitched six innings, gave up 5 hits, 2 runs with 4 k's and no walks. Definitely better than anything the Yankees have gotten from Hughes or Ian Kennedy thus far. The Yankees blew up for 6 runs in the third inning, highlighted by back-to-back homers by Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano. Cabrera is quietly playing very well right now and hopefully the home run by Cano can shake him out of his current slump. The Yankees and fantasy baseball players everywhere are counting on you. That was pretty much the ballgame. Good game for Yankees fans, bad weekend overall for y'all Mariners fans.

Some Yankee Stadium Notes and Whatnot

Really wanted to check out Monument Park. I arrived at about 10:45 and was in line to get into the stadium right as it opened at 11. Then I messed up. Decided I had to use the bathroom. Then debated about getting something to eat first. Then took a couple of pictures of batting practice. Window shopped at the Yankee store for a hot minute then it was off to Monument Park. By the time I got there (call it about 11:20) there were already hundreds, if not thousands of people in line, I shit you not. The line stretched from Monument Park (left field) into the stadium, then up the ramps to the top level of the stadium where the line just continued. Give the number of people and the fact that they close it just before game time, getting in line did not assure me of getting in. Just another excuse to go again this year. Moral of the story is, if you want to see Monument Park go very early to the stadium, be first in line to get in and the proceed immediately to Monument Park. Or bring a very good, long book.
Walked right past Angelo Cataldi (morning guy on Philly talk radio station, 610 WIP) right as I was walking up to the stadium. My buddy shouted him out and he acknowledged him and kept walking. Pretty sure he had a Yankee hat on.
Digital cameras destroy batteries. Even the good ones. When you see AA batteries for sale at the Dollar Store (8 batteries for $1.00!) do not buy them for anything other than remote controls. I got about 7 pictures for every 2 batteries. I figured they'd be kinda lousy so I brought a bunch but that was ridiculous. So Good Batteries=Expensive, but worthwhile.
Was not too impressed with the food offerings at Yankee Stadium. I really didn't get a chance to go to experience everything, I got a pretty good idea. Everything was out of this world expensive (to be expected). Regular hot dog and a soda ran you $10. And that's the small hot dog and smallest soda. Beers were $9 for a 16-oz domestic draft. Bag of peanuts was $5, slice of pizza was $5, smallest fries were $5, you get the idea. They did have a pretty decent selection and a lot of locations which helped with the lines (which were not too bad). Nothing I had was really very good, most notably a hot dog which was lower than gas station quality. The vendors were all pretty nice though.
I actually wanted to get a scorecard and fill it out. I haven't done that since I played ball when I was a kid. Well to cop a scorecard you had to buy a program. For $7. Maybe I'm nuts but that's just too much for me.
I openly mused how much it would cost for a family of 4 or 5 to come to a ballgame. That hurt. Then later some guy showed up with his family and they sat in front of us. Dude had at least 5 kids. Yeah the tickets were only $15 bucks but I'm guessing he spent $300 easy, without buying t-shirts or the like.
Since I got there early I got a pretty good parking spot. There's not a lot of them though, so if you ain't on the train, get there at least 2 hours early. Expect to pay about $20.
The new Yankee Stadium is going to be amazing. It looks like the current Yankee Stadium crossed with a modern version of the Roman Coliseum. Absolutely unreal. But it will be a long time until the parking situation is handled.
The All-Star Game this summer will be a memorable experience. Good luck getting tickets but they'd be worth it.
Be warned. It's a steep climb to the upper level seats. And there's a lot of ramps and very few escalators.
There were a lot of cops in uniform (working I guess) at the game. There was one (kinda young guy) posted right by our section. He actually was more like a ticket guy, telling people how to best get to their seats. He would just look at your ticket and point pretty much. Then later I watched as two attractive younger females asked for his help. And I'll be damned if he didn't actually walk them all the way to their seats. Not like I wouldn't have done the same thing, but never be naive as to how the world really works.
I love the New York fans. Good times.
Couple of decent bars right around the stadium. Lots of flat screens, pretty waitress and decent food. Be warned though, stadium inflation applies here as well. Try to the tune of about $6 for a domestic bottle.

All in all, I had a blast and it was a beautiful day. Not bad indeed.

The Yankees Meet MAS*H

2008-05-02T14:02:00.005-04:00

Ding-Dong the Wicked Witch is dead!

Or is she? Things are not all well in Yankee-land right now. The $300 million dollar man is on the DL. One of the most durable catchers in MLB history is joining him. So is the young fireballer who's talent is so great, and ceiling so high, he was valued more than Johan Santana by the Yankee organization. Let's break em down.

A-Rod. The $300 million dollar man. His injury is not serious but any missed games for A-Rod are a big deal. Look at it this way. For the sake of making this easier let's assume A-Rod makes $27 million per year. That's roughly $166,667 PER GAME. So we'll assume that over 15 days A-Rod misses 12 games. That's $2,000,004. That A-Rod made. While on the DL. For about 2 weeks. That's almost 10% of the Florida Marlins payroll for the entire season. My point is, that's how important A-Rod is, especially to the Yankees right now. The Yankees are not the dominant offensive team they should be right now. A-Rod has to be the MVP in the middle of that lineup. He needs to make everybody batting around him better. He can't do that on the DL. The Yankees might have more "Mad Money" than Jim Cramer but don't think for a second that they couldn't use that $2 million right now to buy some more bullpen help. When A-Rod's on he's worth every penny of his deal. But if he's not, that deal is an albatross that will not go quietly into the night. Look for A-Rod to turn it around when he gets off of the DL but he needs to step up as a team leader.

Jorge Posada. A 36 year old catcher who signed a huge 4 year deal last off-season. He'd never been on the DL in his entire career. Guess what? There's a first time for everything. This is bad. The Yankees have 3 or 4 guys who should be the DH so there's no room for him there. He can play some first base but that forces Giambi to DH and pushes Cabrera, Damon, Matsui or Abreu to the bench. With exception of Cabrera, that means putting a $10 million+ per season player on the bench. So that's not a great option either. So the Yankees need Posada to catch. If you put a gun to Brian Cashman (Yankee's GM) right now I suspect he would say that he expects very little, if anything, from Posada the rest of this season. Next to Derek Jeter, Posada is the most important Yankee in that locker room. Not to mention the Yankees will be playing musical catchers all season. Posada was also their second best hitter last season. If Posada can make it back by the All-Star break at 100% or very close to it, the Yankees will be a much better team. Without him..... let's just say it won't be pretty.

Phil Hughes fractured his 9th rib sneezing. It's been tough to verify the sneezing part but Sportscenter said it so it must be true. It's been well documented that Hughes is the youngest pitcher in the big leagues. And is hype has been building for 3 seasons now. Remember, Joba Chamberlain came out of nowhere. Hughes was and has been the Yankees highest profile young pitcher since Cashman took over. The Yankees have time and time again refused to part with Hughes in any deal. He's supposed to be their future, their next ace to put up in the rotation with Wang and Chamberlain, someday. Yet he's been injured constantly and has not pitched even average this season. Hughes flashed his dominance last year but this year has been a whole new ballgame, literally. Maybe this injury is the problem. But we won't get a chance to find out until after the All-Star break most likely. If he doesn't return to form this year it could spell curtains for Cashman. Parting with Hughes and Ian Kennedy in a Johan Santana deal doesn't look so crazy right now. Except for the team trading for Hughes and Kennedy. Remember though, it takes a certain kind of pitcher to pitch well for the Yankees. That's why it's even harder for them to import pitchers from other organizations. A startling number of pitchers were successful for one team, unsuccessful for the Yankees and then successful again upon leaving the Yankees. Look for them to stick it out with Hughes and Kennedy. Hell, they don't really have any other options unless the Yankees want Billy Beane to rob them blind and severely deplete their farm system.

So what the hell does this all mean? It means that the Evil Empire is in trouble. They're gonna need to kick, claw and scrap their way to a .500 record going into the All-Star break. If they can do that and Posada comes back healthy and Hughes pitches like he did last year, they've got a shot. The Red Sox do not look as strong as they have in recent years. The AL East is the deepest and strongest it's been this decade but the Yankees and the Red Sox are clearly to the front runners. They always are.

So where does Joba stand in all of this? That's gonna require it's own post. You do know it's Friday right? I typically only see 1 movie in the theaters per year but this might be an exception year. I'm mosdef going to see the new Indiana Jones but I really want to see Ironman. I haven't gone to a movie on opening weekend since T3 but I think I just might. Oh and a word to the wise, don't see Speed Racer unless you want to have a seizure. Yeah the Wachowski brothers made the Matrix. But they're not the Wachowski brothers anymore because one of them had a sex change. Just some food for thought on Friday.

Now I Feel Pretty Bad

2008-05-02T12:15:00.003-04:00

Sorry DC. I ripped on you the other day about your injury on the show "Pros vs Joes" and that was insensitive. Well not really, but today I found out that you need a heart transplant. Seriously. I'm sure that there are numerous cities full of NBA fans (Charlotte, Detroit, Philly, etc) who would have some things to say about that. By which I'm implying that Derrick Coleman was often accused of playing "without heart". I think the main problem with DC was that he was so talented. He could've (coulda, shoulda, woulda,) been a sure fire Hall Of Fame player. His skills were that good. He could've been a player who was a combination of the best parts of Rasheed Wallace and Chris Webber. A complete inside/out player. Never happened though.

DC was such a tease. He would rarely turn it on for a string of games. Don't get me wrong, he played well at times but he was just scratching the surface. But occasionally, for some short bursts within games, he exploded. His body continued to let him down as the seasons wore on and went past. I was very conscious in comparing him to Sheed. Similar size, similar skill set and a similar mindset. My opinion has always been that if you took Kobe Bryant's drive (desire, hunger, passion, whatever you want to call it) and put it into Rasheed Wallace you would have the best player in the NBA. Sheed would be Dirk with defense, rebounding, attitude and leadership. Sheed could play anywhere on the floor, post up anybody, shoot over anybody. Yet he only seems to do it for short stretches at a time. Hence the comparisons.

Anyway, I'm not baggin on ya DC. Alright maybe a little, but that's just the voice of a frustrated fan. You're an OK dude DC and I hope that you undergo a successful heart transplant and live a long and productive life. Two pieces of advice though. (1) If you have any children as athletically gifted as you, please find a way for Kevin Garnett to be their role model, teacher and coach. (2) Do not go back onto a basketball court under any circumstances ever. You're cursed like the Cubs, man. Good luck and best wishes DC. Here's hoping Sheed visits you in the hospital.

So They Lost, Does It Really Matter

2008-05-01T22:40:00.005-04:00

The Philadelphia 76'ers finally fell tonight to the Detroit Pistons. Let me go out on a limb right now and pick the Orlando Magic over the Pistons in Round 2 of the Eastern Conference. Were the Pistons the better team versus the 76'ers? Absolutely. Does that really mean anything? Not a chance. Why did the Pistons win? 2 reasons. (1) The Sixers have zero 3-point shooters. (2) The Sixers were not able to match up against Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton.

So what does this really mean? It means (A) The Sixers have a bright future (B) The Pistons will have their hands full against the Magic, much less against the Celtics (Hawks permitting). The Magic have the players to match up against the Pistons. Even more so, do the Celtics. The Pistons are aging notably and although their bench is young, they lack that spark 'Sheed first brought to them. That is the spark that Garnett brings the Celtics and the spark that the Spurs never lack.

Tomorrow I'll do the the "What the Sixers can do to make themselves better next year" post. I feel that Philly exposed Detroit more than Atlanta has exposed the Celtics. The Sixers had their best player (Andre Iguodala) play as bad as he possibly can and the Sixers still won 2 games, including 1 in Detroit. Joe Johnson has done his thing against the Celtics, but we all knew that he was a dynamic scorer. (That trade for Joe Johnson from Phoenix does look a lot better now doesn't it?)

Does this mean that Iguodala has hurt his contract value? Absolutely. But that's tomorrow's business.

Mavericks Fire Avery Johnson

2008-04-30T16:59:00.005-04:00

The writing was really on the wall for the Lil' General huh? What a story. Groomed as Don Nelson's successor. A Finals appearance and a Coach of the Year award in his first full season as coach. You could've written off blowing a 2-0 Finals lead to the Heat. They had a highly-motivated Shaq, an en fuego Dwayne Wade and a nice supporting cast of veterans. True to that, the Mavericks won 67 games the next season. That's the 5th most in NBA history. And then the Creator became the Destroyer. Don Nelson's 8th seeded Warriors ran over the highly favored #1 seeded Mavericks. The teacher had whipped the pupil. Mark Cuban, to his credit, maintained his cool for a hot minute. There were no immediate changes, trades or signings. In the Mavericks defense the Celtics summer moves prompted quite a few veterans to sign with the Celtics. Had the Celtics still been bottom feeders the Mavs may have been able to get a James Posey, PJ Brown or Sam Cassell.

The Mavs started out slow and it was curtains. The Mavs had lost the edge that Johnson had given them when he first came on as coach. You could also tell that owner Mark Cuban and Johnson were no longer seeing eye to eye on things. Then the Lakers acquisition of Pau Gasol for a jar of farts and some other throw ins happened. Mark Cuban finally flipped his lid. It was win now time, the future be damned.

Mark Cuban had stated for several seasons that he would under no circumstances trade young PG Devin Harris. The Mavericks needed an honest to god post presence both on offense an as a shot blocker on defense. Not to mention the combination of Devin Harris and Jason Terry at the point was at least adequate if not above average. But Cuban wanted a Hall of Fame type player. Ironically, he needed such a player to restore the attitude it the locker room that he had found and lost under Johnson. So he traded for Jason Kidd.

Not only did he trade for Jason Kidd he did it at an enormous expense. Kidd cost him Devin Harris (the Mavs best young player and the only player they had that could match up with the Steve Nash and Tony Parkers of the world) Desagana Diop (their best post defender) a couple of throw ins, $3 million in cash and 2 first round draft picks. Not to mention having to sign and trade Keith Van Horn to make the cap numbers work. This skyrocketed the Mavericks luxury tax bill and sent their payroll over the $100 million dollar threshold. That's Isiah Thomas territory kids.

The scent of desperation was in the air and the sharks were circling. The Mavs stumbled out of the gate with Kidd and their effectiveness against their Western Conference rivals was worse than it was before the acquisition of of Kidd. Then Avery Johnson parked Jason Kidd on the bench with the game on the line. That was it. You had Cuban and Kidd on one side and Johnson on the other. Now it wasn't just win-now. It was win-now-or-else.

Most of us figured the ultimate outcome would be or-else. It just happened sooner than later. The Hornets had quietly been an elite team all year and Dallas just happened to be in town for the coming out party. Without Devin Harris they didn't have anybody remotely capable of holding Chris Paul in check and CP3 ran wild. Game, set and match. It wasn't even close.

So the Mavericks and Avery Johnson decided to part ways today. No real surprise there. Cuban couldn't handle Johnson's lack of recent playoff success and Johnson couldn't handle being micro-managed and ignored by Cuban. It was obvious that the Mavericks needed a change and this is the cheapest and fastest one possible. Not to say that there aren't more moves on the horizon. There most certainly are. But Cuban will be limited in what he can actually acquire without parting with Josh Howard or Dirk. But after Josh Howard's comments about his off-season activities, maybe such a move could be coming. We'll hit on that more in an upcoming post.

All in all this is a good move for the team and for Avery Johnson. Probably both in the long-term and the short-term.

Suns To Fire D'Antoni. Is This Really A Good Move?

2008-04-30T11:43:00.007-04:00

This is not official yet but is being reported heavily by SI.com. Let's hop in our Delorean, feed Mr. Fusion and hit 88 miles-per-hour. No, we're not going back to 1955, we're so sick of that year. Instead let's go back to 2003. Some guy (Mike D'Antoni) who has been coaching in Europe is picked to take over as the coach of the Phoenix Suns at mid-season. He brought with him a fast-paced style of basketball that hadn't been run in the NBA in more than a hot minute. He led a D-League team to 21 wins in 61 games. Remember this is immediately after the Stephon Marbury trade. Howard Eisley, Charlie Ward, Antonio McDyess and Maciej Lampe replaced Marbury, Penny Hardaway and Cezary Trybanski. Who woulda thought that 4 years later it looks like McDyess was the best player in that deal? (Just a note, when researching the Marbury trade I noticed that the Knicks still owe the Suns their first-round pick in 2010. Unless the Suns have traded it away, which they might have. Isiah is just the gift that keeps on giving ain't he?)

Bryan Colangelo made a series of outstanding moves to provide D-Antoni with the firepower he needed to run his system. He drafted Amare Stoudemire, acquired Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson (then traded him for Kurt Thomas, thanks again Isiah), Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw (in a trade for Joe Johnson, Tim Thomas and most importantly Steve Nash. (Someday soon we'll revisit that signing, it's worth it) So it's fair to say that D'Antoni was given a lot of talent to work with. The supporting cast was in a constant state of flux but the core remained the same until Marion was dealt for Shaq in 2008. (Although I'm still convinced that the sole purpose of that deal was to dump Marcus Banks and his contract)

Mike D'Antoni Suns Career (03-08)

YEAR TEAM G W L PCT POSTW POSTL
2004 Phoenix Suns 61 21 40 .344 0 0
2005 Phoenix Suns 82 62 20 .756 9 6
2006 Phoenix Suns 82 54 28 .659 10 10
2007 Phoenix Suns 82 61 21 .744 6 5
2008 Phoenix Suns 82 55 27 .671 1 4

Let's examine the talent of the Phoenix Suns under D'Antoni

Players who've been All-Star caliber under D'Antoni and under another coach
-Steve Nash
-Joe Johnson
-Shawn Marion

Players drafted under D'Antoni who have been very good to All-Star caliber
-Amare Stoudemire
-Leandro Barbosa

Players who have been better under a coach other than D'Antoni
-Kurt Thomas
-Marcus Banks

Players who have thrived under D'Antoni as opposed to another coach or team
-Raja Bell
-Quentin Richardson
-Tim Thomas
-Boris Diaw

*Not included in this list are Grant Hill and Shaquille O'Neal both of whom were acquired after Colangelo departed. Hill was as productive for D'Antoni as he's been this decade and Shaq played much better than he had in Miami this season, silencing his detractors who called for his retirement.

It's safe to say that D'Antoni has gotten the most out of his players. Kurt Thomas was hurt too often and he got erratic playing time due to the Suns running "small ball" a great deal of the time. Marcus Banks was only ever any good in college and for about 25 games in Minnesota which he parlayed into his contract with the Suns. He's not a cerebral or unselfish enough point guard for D'Antoni's system. Other than those two, every major rotation player D'Antoni's ever had has played as well, or better, than he has his entire career. That's the sign of a good coach. Some other signs include never winning less than 54 games in the regular season, reaching the Western Conference Finals twice and reaching the post-season every year in a grueling Western Conference. Yes he's failed to make it to, or win the NBA Finals but it's a select group of teams that have been able to do that this decade. The Pistons and the Heat had their moments but the 2000's have belonged to San Antonio and Los Angeles. It's not like the Suns were losing to the #8 seed every year in the playoffs.

We have a couple of historical examples for this and they don't bode well for the Suns. Two coaches with a very similar history (albeit in different sports) are Marv Levy (Buffalo Bills, 4 straight Super Bowl losses, multiple other playoff losses) and Andy Reid (Philadelphia Eagles, 3 straight conference finals losses, 1 Super Bowl loss, multiple other playoff losses). I guess that the trend is that sometimes it just doesn't happen even if the team and the coach are both excellent. Both of these coaches continued to get their teams to the post-season year after year and that's something you have to do in order to give yourself a chance to win it all.

So should the Suns fire D'Antoni? Not a chance in hell. Even with Shaq they're still built to run and their window is currently next year. That's it. It's one year at a time from here on out and they don't have a lot of rebuilding options. Shaq is untradeable, Amare is their most important player and without Nash they have a gaping hole at PG. Plus at Nash's age and with his medical history, it's questionable how much they could really get back for him. So the Suns' options are to (A) Keep D'Antoni, actually use a draft pick or two and get another big man for the rotation (B) Bring in another coach to run D'Antoni's system. Why would you buy a Go-Bot when you already have Optimus Prime? (C) The Hiroshima option. Trade everybody except Barbosa and Amare, hang onto to Shaq's deal as it expires and make a push for Dwayne Wade in 2010. (D) If AI opts out of his contract this June do everything possible to get him to take a mid-level deal for a year or two to make a title push, Denver ain't going anywhere (E) Trade Nash straight up for Jason Kidd. Why not? Seriously, why not? They both would get to return to their original home-after-home. Again.

To recap, you're best chance to win is roll with what you've got and try to make a couple of short-term tweaks. Most of the Suns contracts will expire in or by 2010 so they're in pretty good shape for the future. And they MUST USE THEIR DRAFT PICKS TO DRAFT PLAYERS. Part of the Suns problem is a lack of quality depth which stems from trading away first round draft choices year after year for cash. And to avoid the luxury tax. These aren't NFL rookies there, their is a set pay-scale and they're cheap for 4 years. Get with the program.

NFL Draft 2008 Grades

2008-04-28T13:10:00.004-04:00

I linked y'all to Mel Kiper's Draft Grades. I do not believe in grading a draft anything before two full season after its conclusion. You cannot project exactly how a player is going to fit and perform in your system. So evaluations of this kinda are pointless. Yet millions of NFL obsessed fans will pour over these draft grades for the next couple of weeks. With such a high demand the sports outlets feel obligated to put out something. In my opinion, evaluating the draft picks 24 hours after the draft is more difficult than projecting next years first round 364 days before it occurs. But in the name of content I feel that there are several ways in which a draft can be evaluated in the immediate aftermath.

-Filling needs. In this case we will not penalize any team for "reaching" to fill a need. It happens, especially when you cannot find a team to trade down with. Free agency is over and this draft is basically the only way to fill the remaining holes on your roster. Taking the best player on the board is great but your lineup needs to be almost complete before you have that luxury.

-Getting value. This is the good old "take the best player on the board" mantra. This happens when a player falls for an inexplicable reason. Most of these falls are either because of medical issues, character issues or teams drafting to meet their needs. This is how players like Randy Moss slide so far.

-Paying off your mortgage. This is when teams stockpile future draft picks. It's not always a success and it's never sexy to the fans. But acquiring multiple picks in the next draft allows a team to greatly increase their options. They can trade for veteran players much easier and target specific players in the draft because of their wealth of picks. New England, San Diego, Dallas and Philadelphia all excel at this.

You cannot assign a letter or numerical grade to a draft class at this point. This is one area where a college grading system can help. In my system teams can get a "+" a "/" or a "-". A "+" means teams met at least 2 of my 3 criteria. A "/" means a team met at least 1 of my criteria. A "-" means a team failed to meet any of my criteria.

So without further ado here's my "grades" in particular order within their tiers although the teams I think of first probably did a little better in my mind. But I always forget somebody for a minute. It's the curse of not making enough notes before I start writing these things.

+ TEAMS
Kansas City
Minnesota (Jared Allen is included in this grade in my system)
Carolina
Green Bay
Washington
Dallas (Pacman Jones is included in this grade in my system)
Pittsburgh
Miami
Buffalo
Cleveland (Shaun Rodgers, Brady Quinn and Corey Williams are included in this grade in my system)
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Indianapolis (Tony Ugoh is included in this grade in my system)
New Orleans
New England
New York Jets
New York Giants
Jacksonville

/ TEAMS
San Francisco (Joe Staley is included in this grade in my system)
Cincinnati
Arizona
St Louis
Oakland
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Chicago
Seattle
San Diego (Eric Weddle is included in this grade in my system)

- TEAMS
Tennessee
Houston
Detroit
Denver

You'll notice a few trends here. 18 teams had "+" drafts. And with good reason. These players were drafted for a reason and everybody should be looking for them succeed. The players are young and healthy so there is great reason for optimism. Only 4 teams had "-" grades. And all four teams have had some trouble drafting in recent years. This happens because when teams miss on draft picks they fail to fill needs. Which means when the next draft rolls around you have more needs to fill than ever. It's a vicious cycle which can only be broken by having an outstanding draft, dabbling in free agency and trying like hell to find some good undrafted players. The NFC East is really setting up to be a war zone this year. All of those teams genuinely hate each other and they're all in win-now mode. San Diego just didn't have enough picks to properly place them this year.

We're all drafted out for a bit. We'll delve more into this later. Enjoy beeoches.

Get To The Chopper

Walking Through The Wire (Week 3 Edition)

I Am So Smart! S-M-R-T! (Week 1 Edition)

It's Not HBO, It's The Wire (Week 2 Edition)

Thank You Ms. Cleo (2011 NFL Edition)

Running Back Handcuffs

Last Minute Fantasy Football Draft Wisdom

Fantasy Football Draft Prep. Look Ma, No Names!

My Dudes (2011 NFL Edition)

2009 NFL Week 1 - Spread Em (Monday Night Edition)

2009 NFL Week 1 - You Talkin To Me?

2009 NFL Week 1 - Spread Em

Fantasy Football 2009 - Week 1 Sleepers & Busts

Bat Hits - Tuesday, August 25th 2009

Fantasy Football Preview 2009 - Auction Draft Strategy

The Obligatory Brett Favre Mention

Fantasy Football 2009 Preview - Team RB Capsules (Part 2)

Fantasy Football 2009 Preview - Team RB Capsules (Part 1)

Fantasy Football Pre-Season TE Rankings & Tiers (August 11, 2009)

Fantasy Football Pre-Season QB Rankings & Tiers (August 11, 2009)

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Preview, 2009 Style

Fantasy Football Pre-Season TE Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)

Fantasy Football Pre-Season WR Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)

Fantasy Football Pre-Season RB Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)

Fantasy Football Pre-Season QB Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)

Friday's NHL Squiggles

Random Cutler Links

The Cutler Trade (A Historical Perspective)

Cutler To The Bears

Can Cutler Cut It?

Shuffle Off To Buffalo

T,O. Gets TKO'd

So What Does It All Mean?

NFL Free Agency - The Ongoing and The Aftermath

Durant leaves arena on crutches

Bat Hits for Thursday, January 8, 2009

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Early NFL Playoff Picks

Fantasy Football Update

The Belmont Stakes

Fantasy Sports News

Joba, Joba, Joba

The NBA Finals Begin. Finally.

It's Monday. If Only I Were Garfield. Or There Was Football Tonight

The People's Champ Is Back?

An Uncapped Year In The NFL

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - K

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - TEAM DEF

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - TE

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - WR

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - RB

Fantasy Football 2008 Position Rankings - QB

So They Got D'Antoni. They're Still The Knicks. They Still Have Isiah.

Everything the Patriots Accomplished Since 2000 is Tainted

Fantasy Baseball - Waiver Wire Wesley Snipes

NBA Playoff Thoughts

Fantasy Football Already?

NHL Stuff. Really.

NHL Playoffs. Conference Finals. Fight.

NBA Playoffs. Round 2. Fight.

Draft Zach Feinstein

Roger Clemens

Trajan Langdon Lives

MLB All-Star Game Tickets (Yankee Stadium)

Iron Man

Yankees Stuff. Evil Empire Haters Be Warned.

The Yankees Meet M*A*S*H

Now I Feel Pretty Bad

So They Lost, Does It Really Matter

Mavericks Fire Avery Johnson

Suns To Fire D'Antoni. Is This Really A Good Move?

NFL Draft 2008 Grades

The Yankees Meet MAS*H