Tampa Bay Online is reporting that the Broncos asking price for Jay Cutler starts at two first-round draft picks.
That's already a steep price. In addition to that I'm willing to bet they're also looking for a young player or two, if not a potential starting QB and/or a centerpiece for their rebuilding defense. Remember, Tony Scheffler is on the trading block as well, don't count out a package deal. This will most likely end up being a three or four team trade as it is. Very few teams have the ammo to match what the Broncos want in a straight-up trade. Only the Redskins or the Jets are probably crazy enough to give up three or more first-round picks in order to sweep in and get Cutler before another team can make the Broncos a better or more practical offer.
Is Cutler worth all of this? My gut says, probably. I don't think he's ever going to be a pinpoint accurate passer. He's going to throw a few more interceptions than you like. But he's got a cannon and can make every single throw there is on a football field. He's cocky but that would probably fly in a younger locker room where he is the unquestioned leader. Worst-case scenario is that he is a slightly above-average starter. Think Jake Delhomme or even Gus Frerotte with much more physical talent. That's a borderline Pro Bowler with Super Bowl potential. Remember, not so long ago Rex Grossman started a Super Bowl game.
So let's try to simplify things a bit. Here's a list of teams that will not being acquiring Cutler. We'll call this the:
Not A Chance In Hell ListColts
Patriots
Steelers
Packers
Saints
Cowboys
Giants
Falcons
Ravens
Bengals
Bronco's Wouldn't Do It ListChiefs (Broncos would probably do it for Cassel and a first rounder)
Chargers (Straight up for Rivers who is in the last year of his deal)
Raiders (They'd probably offer Russell straight up and the Broncos would laugh)
*Note, the Broncos play in the same division of these three teams. They won't trade Cutler in the division unless their getting Cassel or Rivers in return. Yeah, probably not happening. Try about 95% Not Happening.
Extreme Long ShotsSeahawks - The Hawks would have do something like send the Broncos Hasselbeck, their second round pick, swap first round picks with the Broncos and throw in a future third round pick. Might be worth it for the Hawks. The Broncos could draft Sanchez with the Seahawks pick (or Stafford if he fell) and start Hasselbeck for the next 1-2 seasons.
Eagles - Would the Eagles give up McNabb, Kolb and a draft pick? Probably not. I don't know if McNabb would fit McDaniels' system and I really doubt Cutler could fit into Andy Reid's system. But both coaches would be arrogant enough to try it. Both quarterbacks are also looking for new contracts. The Broncos have recent acquired three former Eagles, if that means anything.
Texans - Could the Texans be tempted to move the oft-injured Matt Schuab? Schuab and their first round pick would certainly be a tempting offer for the Broncos. I doubt that the Texans would offer such a deal, but you never know.
Jaguars - Pretty much the same deal as the teams above, probably most similar to the Seahawks deal. The Jags could offer David Garrard, their second round pick, swap first round picks and give up another player or future pick. Again, I'm not sure the Broncos would want Garrard and I think it's too early for the Jags to give up on the QB they just extended last year.
Titans - This would be the interesting one. Would Denver have any interest in Kerry Collins, Vince Young and some other picks and/or players. The Titans could throw in LenDale White or Jevon Kearse. If the Titans could get Cutler without giving up one of their first day picks this year or next I think they would think long and hard about the deal. (That's what she said)
Bills - They just shook up the team by acquiring T.O. and they seem committed to young Trent Edwards. They could end up being a landing spot for Tony Scheffler though. The Bills could jump in on this deal if it becomes a multiple-team monstrosity and the Bills decide that they're going to move Jason Peters. If the Bills could get Cutler and Scheffler for Peters and Edwards I think that they would at least have to seriously consider it. It's a good year to be looking for an OT in the draft.
Miami - Jay Cutler just doesn't seem like a Parcells guy does he? The Dolphins have some nice young talent including two recent second round draft picks at QB. Would the Dolphins give up Henne and Pennington for Cutler? Maybe. I don't think that it would be a slam dunk 'yes'. The Dolphins have their QB plan in place, look for them to stick to it.
Rams - The Rams could offer the same thing as the Jags or Seahawks. A veteran QB (Bulger), a second round pick, the right to move up in the first round and a future pick. It would seem to be a waste to put Cutler's cannon arm indoors but he's got a lot more mileage left than Bulger does. Bulger might fit McDaniels' system but his health is a major question mark.
Cardinals - This one is extremely intriguing. Even if they could trade Matt Leinart straight up for Cutler I can't see Cutler or Warner sitting for even a quarter of a game, much less a season. So if the Cards really were interested in acquiring Cutler, it would be Warner who had to go. If the Cards just want to jump in as a third team they could offer up Leinart and try to get a draft pick to draft another young QB. Again, this is extremely doubtful but shit does happen.
Vikings - Despite what they say I would think the Vikings would say yes if they were offered Cutler for Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson. That's not going to happen though. I don't think the Vikings will be involved in this unless they can trade Chester Taylor away for another asset to make a differnt sort of offer, or get in on a three or four team deal.
Again, these are all long-shot possibilities. I'd say there's about an 80% chance of these deals NOT HAPPENING.
So if you add up all of the teams on the Not A Chance In Hell List (10 teams), the Broncos Wouldn't Do It List (3 teams) and the Extreme Longshots List (10 teams) you have 23 teams that most likely won't be acquiring Jay Cutler. Add the Broncos themselves to that list and you have 24 teams. That means there's only about 8 teams with a realistic desire to have Jay Cutler as their starting QB this year. Well, 8 teams that are just in the position to do so at this time, I'm sure a lot of teams would like to get Cutler depending on the circumstances. Those 8 teams are:
Lions
Bears
Redskins
Panthers
Bucs
49er's
Jets
Browns
The teams are listed in no particular order. Random thoughts on these teams:
I would think that the Lions should jump all over Cutler but I don't think they're going to. The Broncos don't want the first pick so the Lions would either have to make this a multiple-team trade or make some deals of their own before dealing with the Broncos. Plus the rumors are swirling that they're falling for Stafford.
Boy do the Bears need Cutler. He's got the arm to play in that division in December and the Bears offense isn't afraid to let the quarterback sling it around. Just think of Cutler as Rex Grossman on steroids. Which is basically what the Bears need. Their problem is they don't really have the goods to get Cutler. I'm guessing that Orton would be thrown in any deal. For the Bears to make it interesting Devin Hester and/or Brian Urlacher would have to be involved. Is it worth it for the Bears to gut their team? Probably. They've struggle to find a QB for two decades. They just need to man up and go for it. They can't afford to draft another first round QB and fail.
I hear the Redskins want Cutler insanely bad. If they get him the rumors of the Mastermind coming to DC next year will probably come true. The Redskins really, really, lack the ammo to get the deal done and may have to just bankrupt the future to get Cutler. I doubt the Broncos want Campbell and he's worth maybe a third round pick on the open market. The Redskins would literally have to give up at least three first round picks.
Now the Panthers make a ton of sense. Jake Delhomme, Julius Peppers and a second round pick for Cutler and Scheffler. Sure the Panthers would devestate their pass rush but I get the impression that Peppers is gone one way or the other. There's no way to replace him on the open market so they'd have to look through the draft regardless. If they did this deal they would solve their QB and TE problems, which would basically complete their offense. They could dedicate their entire draft to the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos would get a premium pass-rusher and a stop-gap QB who has at least one more year in him. Pretty good deal.
The Bucs are another prime landing spot due to their glaring, gaping hole at QB. If they thought Luke McCown was the future they wouldn't have tried to get Cutler the first time. The problem is they have even less ammo than the Redskins when it comes to this trade. I mean they've really got nothing to offer. It would probably take more draft picks than they gave up in the Gruden deal, considering they don't have a second rounder to give up this year.
The 49er's are another team with a terrible QB situation. Cutler would be viewed as a hero-type in San Fran (think Philly when T.O. first showed up) and it would by Singletary the year or two he needs to rebuild the team properly. I'm not sure that the 49'ers have the ammo to get it done, but their first round pick might become more valuable to the Broncos if Mark Sanchez were still on the board. If that was the case, maybe two first round picks would be enough. And they'd probably throw in Alex Smith, just to drag him closer to Ryan Leaf-type infamy.
Poor Jets. If all of this had been going on before Favre had retired, think of the press headlines that couldn've generated. Favre and the Jets first round pick (and change) to the Broncos for Cutler? I doubt it would've work, but something tells me Favre would've been at least a little bit interested. The Jets may have a few pieces to offer the Broncos (David Harris, Thomas Jones, Leon Washington) I'm not sure they can afford to part with any of them. The Jets would ultimately have to overpay drastically in the form of draft picks, just like the Redskins or Bucs.
Just how much alike are the systems of Charlie Weis and Josh McDaniels? Because Brady Quinn did seem to run the former's very well. Could Cutler and Quinn be dealt straight up for each other? Nope. What about that rumored Shaun Rodgers and Quinn for Cutler deal? Now that deal really does seem to make a great deal of sense. I'm not sure that it's going to happen though. The Browns really, really need Shaun Rodgers for their defense to have a prayer next year. Plus the fans are still on board the Brady Train. If he became a superstar in Denver the Cleveland fans will hold it against Cutler, fair or not, unless he wins Super Bowls.
So I wrote all of this, I must have an idea about where Cutler's going right? I think I have even less of an idea now than when I started. If I had to guess I would say that it's either going to be an exremely convuluted multi-team trade or a single team will overpay drastically. If it goes the multi-team way Cutler could end up on any one of the eight teams, or possibly even 23 teams depending on how crazy the deal got. If Cutler is dealt for a massive package of draft picks and players look for the Jets or the Redskins to be starting Jay Cutler at QB next season.
