According to Jay Glazer of FoxSports.com and reported by ProFootballTalk.com Jay Cutler is a Chicago Bear. The rumored cost of Cutler - 2 first round picks, a third round pick and Kyle Orton. The Bears will receive Cutler and fifth round pick from the Broncos.
So how does this look for the Bears? It could be worse. I think they would've been better off swapping Urlacher or Hester instead of a 2nd first round pick but they needed Cutler. Orton is extraneous with Cutler on board so throwing him in the deal amounts to nothing. For a Bears team with a lot of needs this is a pretty big deal.
Look for the Bears to get a bit more active with the available free agents. I could see both Orlando Pace and Torry Holt getting long looks by the Bears now. They need OL and WR help and with only 1 pick on the first day of the draft they will have to look elsewhere to fill those needs. Not to mention they need pass-rush help, another corner or two and possibly two safeties. Maybe they turn around now and deal Urlacher for an additional second round pick. I doubt it, but with the Cutler acquisition the Chicago front office has bought themselves at least a year's worth of goodwill.
This should help take a little bit of leverage away from Donovan McNabb, the Bears were always the go-to team in any McNabb trade scenario. I think Brandon Marshall should be able to hold most of his fantasy value but I would expect Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokely to lose some value with the loss of Cutler. Tony Scheffler will have a new address soon enough. One guy I like more today is Greg Olsen. Cutler loves him some tight ends and Olsen is very similar to Tony Scheffler.
More thoughts later. I can't wait to hear the reactions from Washington and New York.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Can Cutler Cut It?
Tampa Bay Online is reporting that the Broncos asking price for Jay Cutler starts at two first-round draft picks.
That's already a steep price. In addition to that I'm willing to bet they're also looking for a young player or two, if not a potential starting QB and/or a centerpiece for their rebuilding defense. Remember, Tony Scheffler is on the trading block as well, don't count out a package deal. This will most likely end up being a three or four team trade as it is. Very few teams have the ammo to match what the Broncos want in a straight-up trade. Only the Redskins or the Jets are probably crazy enough to give up three or more first-round picks in order to sweep in and get Cutler before another team can make the Broncos a better or more practical offer.
Is Cutler worth all of this? My gut says, probably. I don't think he's ever going to be a pinpoint accurate passer. He's going to throw a few more interceptions than you like. But he's got a cannon and can make every single throw there is on a football field. He's cocky but that would probably fly in a younger locker room where he is the unquestioned leader. Worst-case scenario is that he is a slightly above-average starter. Think Jake Delhomme or even Gus Frerotte with much more physical talent. That's a borderline Pro Bowler with Super Bowl potential. Remember, not so long ago Rex Grossman started a Super Bowl game.
So let's try to simplify things a bit. Here's a list of teams that will not being acquiring Cutler. We'll call this the:
Not A Chance In Hell List
Colts
Patriots
Steelers
Packers
Saints
Cowboys
Giants
Falcons
Ravens
Bengals
Bronco's Wouldn't Do It List
Chiefs (Broncos would probably do it for Cassel and a first rounder)
Chargers (Straight up for Rivers who is in the last year of his deal)
Raiders (They'd probably offer Russell straight up and the Broncos would laugh)
*Note, the Broncos play in the same division of these three teams. They won't trade Cutler in the division unless their getting Cassel or Rivers in return. Yeah, probably not happening. Try about 95% Not Happening.
Extreme Long Shots
Seahawks - The Hawks would have do something like send the Broncos Hasselbeck, their second round pick, swap first round picks with the Broncos and throw in a future third round pick. Might be worth it for the Hawks. The Broncos could draft Sanchez with the Seahawks pick (or Stafford if he fell) and start Hasselbeck for the next 1-2 seasons.
Eagles - Would the Eagles give up McNabb, Kolb and a draft pick? Probably not. I don't know if McNabb would fit McDaniels' system and I really doubt Cutler could fit into Andy Reid's system. But both coaches would be arrogant enough to try it. Both quarterbacks are also looking for new contracts. The Broncos have recent acquired three former Eagles, if that means anything.
Texans - Could the Texans be tempted to move the oft-injured Matt Schuab? Schuab and their first round pick would certainly be a tempting offer for the Broncos. I doubt that the Texans would offer such a deal, but you never know.
Jaguars - Pretty much the same deal as the teams above, probably most similar to the Seahawks deal. The Jags could offer David Garrard, their second round pick, swap first round picks and give up another player or future pick. Again, I'm not sure the Broncos would want Garrard and I think it's too early for the Jags to give up on the QB they just extended last year.
Titans - This would be the interesting one. Would Denver have any interest in Kerry Collins, Vince Young and some other picks and/or players. The Titans could throw in LenDale White or Jevon Kearse. If the Titans could get Cutler without giving up one of their first day picks this year or next I think they would think long and hard about the deal. (That's what she said)
Bills - They just shook up the team by acquiring T.O. and they seem committed to young Trent Edwards. They could end up being a landing spot for Tony Scheffler though. The Bills could jump in on this deal if it becomes a multiple-team monstrosity and the Bills decide that they're going to move Jason Peters. If the Bills could get Cutler and Scheffler for Peters and Edwards I think that they would at least have to seriously consider it. It's a good year to be looking for an OT in the draft.
Miami - Jay Cutler just doesn't seem like a Parcells guy does he? The Dolphins have some nice young talent including two recent second round draft picks at QB. Would the Dolphins give up Henne and Pennington for Cutler? Maybe. I don't think that it would be a slam dunk 'yes'. The Dolphins have their QB plan in place, look for them to stick to it.
Rams - The Rams could offer the same thing as the Jags or Seahawks. A veteran QB (Bulger), a second round pick, the right to move up in the first round and a future pick. It would seem to be a waste to put Cutler's cannon arm indoors but he's got a lot more mileage left than Bulger does. Bulger might fit McDaniels' system but his health is a major question mark.
Cardinals - This one is extremely intriguing. Even if they could trade Matt Leinart straight up for Cutler I can't see Cutler or Warner sitting for even a quarter of a game, much less a season. So if the Cards really were interested in acquiring Cutler, it would be Warner who had to go. If the Cards just want to jump in as a third team they could offer up Leinart and try to get a draft pick to draft another young QB. Again, this is extremely doubtful but shit does happen.
Vikings - Despite what they say I would think the Vikings would say yes if they were offered Cutler for Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson. That's not going to happen though. I don't think the Vikings will be involved in this unless they can trade Chester Taylor away for another asset to make a differnt sort of offer, or get in on a three or four team deal.
Again, these are all long-shot possibilities. I'd say there's about an 80% chance of these deals NOT HAPPENING.
So if you add up all of the teams on the Not A Chance In Hell List (10 teams), the Broncos Wouldn't Do It List (3 teams) and the Extreme Longshots List (10 teams) you have 23 teams that most likely won't be acquiring Jay Cutler. Add the Broncos themselves to that list and you have 24 teams. That means there's only about 8 teams with a realistic desire to have Jay Cutler as their starting QB this year. Well, 8 teams that are just in the position to do so at this time, I'm sure a lot of teams would like to get Cutler depending on the circumstances. Those 8 teams are:
Lions
Bears
Redskins
Panthers
Bucs
49er's
Jets
Browns
The teams are listed in no particular order. Random thoughts on these teams:
I would think that the Lions should jump all over Cutler but I don't think they're going to. The Broncos don't want the first pick so the Lions would either have to make this a multiple-team trade or make some deals of their own before dealing with the Broncos. Plus the rumors are swirling that they're falling for Stafford.
Boy do the Bears need Cutler. He's got the arm to play in that division in December and the Bears offense isn't afraid to let the quarterback sling it around. Just think of Cutler as Rex Grossman on steroids. Which is basically what the Bears need. Their problem is they don't really have the goods to get Cutler. I'm guessing that Orton would be thrown in any deal. For the Bears to make it interesting Devin Hester and/or Brian Urlacher would have to be involved. Is it worth it for the Bears to gut their team? Probably. They've struggle to find a QB for two decades. They just need to man up and go for it. They can't afford to draft another first round QB and fail.
I hear the Redskins want Cutler insanely bad. If they get him the rumors of the Mastermind coming to DC next year will probably come true. The Redskins really, really, lack the ammo to get the deal done and may have to just bankrupt the future to get Cutler. I doubt the Broncos want Campbell and he's worth maybe a third round pick on the open market. The Redskins would literally have to give up at least three first round picks.
Now the Panthers make a ton of sense. Jake Delhomme, Julius Peppers and a second round pick for Cutler and Scheffler. Sure the Panthers would devestate their pass rush but I get the impression that Peppers is gone one way or the other. There's no way to replace him on the open market so they'd have to look through the draft regardless. If they did this deal they would solve their QB and TE problems, which would basically complete their offense. They could dedicate their entire draft to the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos would get a premium pass-rusher and a stop-gap QB who has at least one more year in him. Pretty good deal.
The Bucs are another prime landing spot due to their glaring, gaping hole at QB. If they thought Luke McCown was the future they wouldn't have tried to get Cutler the first time. The problem is they have even less ammo than the Redskins when it comes to this trade. I mean they've really got nothing to offer. It would probably take more draft picks than they gave up in the Gruden deal, considering they don't have a second rounder to give up this year.
The 49er's are another team with a terrible QB situation. Cutler would be viewed as a hero-type in San Fran (think Philly when T.O. first showed up) and it would by Singletary the year or two he needs to rebuild the team properly. I'm not sure that the 49'ers have the ammo to get it done, but their first round pick might become more valuable to the Broncos if Mark Sanchez were still on the board. If that was the case, maybe two first round picks would be enough. And they'd probably throw in Alex Smith, just to drag him closer to Ryan Leaf-type infamy.
Poor Jets. If all of this had been going on before Favre had retired, think of the press headlines that couldn've generated. Favre and the Jets first round pick (and change) to the Broncos for Cutler? I doubt it would've work, but something tells me Favre would've been at least a little bit interested. The Jets may have a few pieces to offer the Broncos (David Harris, Thomas Jones, Leon Washington) I'm not sure they can afford to part with any of them. The Jets would ultimately have to overpay drastically in the form of draft picks, just like the Redskins or Bucs.
Just how much alike are the systems of Charlie Weis and Josh McDaniels? Because Brady Quinn did seem to run the former's very well. Could Cutler and Quinn be dealt straight up for each other? Nope. What about that rumored Shaun Rodgers and Quinn for Cutler deal? Now that deal really does seem to make a great deal of sense. I'm not sure that it's going to happen though. The Browns really, really need Shaun Rodgers for their defense to have a prayer next year. Plus the fans are still on board the Brady Train. If he became a superstar in Denver the Cleveland fans will hold it against Cutler, fair or not, unless he wins Super Bowls.
So I wrote all of this, I must have an idea about where Cutler's going right? I think I have even less of an idea now than when I started. If I had to guess I would say that it's either going to be an exremely convuluted multi-team trade or a single team will overpay drastically. If it goes the multi-team way Cutler could end up on any one of the eight teams, or possibly even 23 teams depending on how crazy the deal got. If Cutler is dealt for a massive package of draft picks and players look for the Jets or the Redskins to be starting Jay Cutler at QB next season.
That's already a steep price. In addition to that I'm willing to bet they're also looking for a young player or two, if not a potential starting QB and/or a centerpiece for their rebuilding defense. Remember, Tony Scheffler is on the trading block as well, don't count out a package deal. This will most likely end up being a three or four team trade as it is. Very few teams have the ammo to match what the Broncos want in a straight-up trade. Only the Redskins or the Jets are probably crazy enough to give up three or more first-round picks in order to sweep in and get Cutler before another team can make the Broncos a better or more practical offer.
Is Cutler worth all of this? My gut says, probably. I don't think he's ever going to be a pinpoint accurate passer. He's going to throw a few more interceptions than you like. But he's got a cannon and can make every single throw there is on a football field. He's cocky but that would probably fly in a younger locker room where he is the unquestioned leader. Worst-case scenario is that he is a slightly above-average starter. Think Jake Delhomme or even Gus Frerotte with much more physical talent. That's a borderline Pro Bowler with Super Bowl potential. Remember, not so long ago Rex Grossman started a Super Bowl game.
So let's try to simplify things a bit. Here's a list of teams that will not being acquiring Cutler. We'll call this the:
Not A Chance In Hell List
Colts
Patriots
Steelers
Packers
Saints
Cowboys
Giants
Falcons
Ravens
Bengals
Bronco's Wouldn't Do It List
Chiefs (Broncos would probably do it for Cassel and a first rounder)
Chargers (Straight up for Rivers who is in the last year of his deal)
Raiders (They'd probably offer Russell straight up and the Broncos would laugh)
*Note, the Broncos play in the same division of these three teams. They won't trade Cutler in the division unless their getting Cassel or Rivers in return. Yeah, probably not happening. Try about 95% Not Happening.
Extreme Long Shots
Seahawks - The Hawks would have do something like send the Broncos Hasselbeck, their second round pick, swap first round picks with the Broncos and throw in a future third round pick. Might be worth it for the Hawks. The Broncos could draft Sanchez with the Seahawks pick (or Stafford if he fell) and start Hasselbeck for the next 1-2 seasons.
Eagles - Would the Eagles give up McNabb, Kolb and a draft pick? Probably not. I don't know if McNabb would fit McDaniels' system and I really doubt Cutler could fit into Andy Reid's system. But both coaches would be arrogant enough to try it. Both quarterbacks are also looking for new contracts. The Broncos have recent acquired three former Eagles, if that means anything.
Texans - Could the Texans be tempted to move the oft-injured Matt Schuab? Schuab and their first round pick would certainly be a tempting offer for the Broncos. I doubt that the Texans would offer such a deal, but you never know.
Jaguars - Pretty much the same deal as the teams above, probably most similar to the Seahawks deal. The Jags could offer David Garrard, their second round pick, swap first round picks and give up another player or future pick. Again, I'm not sure the Broncos would want Garrard and I think it's too early for the Jags to give up on the QB they just extended last year.
Titans - This would be the interesting one. Would Denver have any interest in Kerry Collins, Vince Young and some other picks and/or players. The Titans could throw in LenDale White or Jevon Kearse. If the Titans could get Cutler without giving up one of their first day picks this year or next I think they would think long and hard about the deal. (That's what she said)
Bills - They just shook up the team by acquiring T.O. and they seem committed to young Trent Edwards. They could end up being a landing spot for Tony Scheffler though. The Bills could jump in on this deal if it becomes a multiple-team monstrosity and the Bills decide that they're going to move Jason Peters. If the Bills could get Cutler and Scheffler for Peters and Edwards I think that they would at least have to seriously consider it. It's a good year to be looking for an OT in the draft.
Miami - Jay Cutler just doesn't seem like a Parcells guy does he? The Dolphins have some nice young talent including two recent second round draft picks at QB. Would the Dolphins give up Henne and Pennington for Cutler? Maybe. I don't think that it would be a slam dunk 'yes'. The Dolphins have their QB plan in place, look for them to stick to it.
Rams - The Rams could offer the same thing as the Jags or Seahawks. A veteran QB (Bulger), a second round pick, the right to move up in the first round and a future pick. It would seem to be a waste to put Cutler's cannon arm indoors but he's got a lot more mileage left than Bulger does. Bulger might fit McDaniels' system but his health is a major question mark.
Cardinals - This one is extremely intriguing. Even if they could trade Matt Leinart straight up for Cutler I can't see Cutler or Warner sitting for even a quarter of a game, much less a season. So if the Cards really were interested in acquiring Cutler, it would be Warner who had to go. If the Cards just want to jump in as a third team they could offer up Leinart and try to get a draft pick to draft another young QB. Again, this is extremely doubtful but shit does happen.
Vikings - Despite what they say I would think the Vikings would say yes if they were offered Cutler for Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson. That's not going to happen though. I don't think the Vikings will be involved in this unless they can trade Chester Taylor away for another asset to make a differnt sort of offer, or get in on a three or four team deal.
Again, these are all long-shot possibilities. I'd say there's about an 80% chance of these deals NOT HAPPENING.
So if you add up all of the teams on the Not A Chance In Hell List (10 teams), the Broncos Wouldn't Do It List (3 teams) and the Extreme Longshots List (10 teams) you have 23 teams that most likely won't be acquiring Jay Cutler. Add the Broncos themselves to that list and you have 24 teams. That means there's only about 8 teams with a realistic desire to have Jay Cutler as their starting QB this year. Well, 8 teams that are just in the position to do so at this time, I'm sure a lot of teams would like to get Cutler depending on the circumstances. Those 8 teams are:
Lions
Bears
Redskins
Panthers
Bucs
49er's
Jets
Browns
The teams are listed in no particular order. Random thoughts on these teams:
I would think that the Lions should jump all over Cutler but I don't think they're going to. The Broncos don't want the first pick so the Lions would either have to make this a multiple-team trade or make some deals of their own before dealing with the Broncos. Plus the rumors are swirling that they're falling for Stafford.
Boy do the Bears need Cutler. He's got the arm to play in that division in December and the Bears offense isn't afraid to let the quarterback sling it around. Just think of Cutler as Rex Grossman on steroids. Which is basically what the Bears need. Their problem is they don't really have the goods to get Cutler. I'm guessing that Orton would be thrown in any deal. For the Bears to make it interesting Devin Hester and/or Brian Urlacher would have to be involved. Is it worth it for the Bears to gut their team? Probably. They've struggle to find a QB for two decades. They just need to man up and go for it. They can't afford to draft another first round QB and fail.
I hear the Redskins want Cutler insanely bad. If they get him the rumors of the Mastermind coming to DC next year will probably come true. The Redskins really, really, lack the ammo to get the deal done and may have to just bankrupt the future to get Cutler. I doubt the Broncos want Campbell and he's worth maybe a third round pick on the open market. The Redskins would literally have to give up at least three first round picks.
Now the Panthers make a ton of sense. Jake Delhomme, Julius Peppers and a second round pick for Cutler and Scheffler. Sure the Panthers would devestate their pass rush but I get the impression that Peppers is gone one way or the other. There's no way to replace him on the open market so they'd have to look through the draft regardless. If they did this deal they would solve their QB and TE problems, which would basically complete their offense. They could dedicate their entire draft to the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos would get a premium pass-rusher and a stop-gap QB who has at least one more year in him. Pretty good deal.
The Bucs are another prime landing spot due to their glaring, gaping hole at QB. If they thought Luke McCown was the future they wouldn't have tried to get Cutler the first time. The problem is they have even less ammo than the Redskins when it comes to this trade. I mean they've really got nothing to offer. It would probably take more draft picks than they gave up in the Gruden deal, considering they don't have a second rounder to give up this year.
The 49er's are another team with a terrible QB situation. Cutler would be viewed as a hero-type in San Fran (think Philly when T.O. first showed up) and it would by Singletary the year or two he needs to rebuild the team properly. I'm not sure that the 49'ers have the ammo to get it done, but their first round pick might become more valuable to the Broncos if Mark Sanchez were still on the board. If that was the case, maybe two first round picks would be enough. And they'd probably throw in Alex Smith, just to drag him closer to Ryan Leaf-type infamy.
Poor Jets. If all of this had been going on before Favre had retired, think of the press headlines that couldn've generated. Favre and the Jets first round pick (and change) to the Broncos for Cutler? I doubt it would've work, but something tells me Favre would've been at least a little bit interested. The Jets may have a few pieces to offer the Broncos (David Harris, Thomas Jones, Leon Washington) I'm not sure they can afford to part with any of them. The Jets would ultimately have to overpay drastically in the form of draft picks, just like the Redskins or Bucs.
Just how much alike are the systems of Charlie Weis and Josh McDaniels? Because Brady Quinn did seem to run the former's very well. Could Cutler and Quinn be dealt straight up for each other? Nope. What about that rumored Shaun Rodgers and Quinn for Cutler deal? Now that deal really does seem to make a great deal of sense. I'm not sure that it's going to happen though. The Browns really, really need Shaun Rodgers for their defense to have a prayer next year. Plus the fans are still on board the Brady Train. If he became a superstar in Denver the Cleveland fans will hold it against Cutler, fair or not, unless he wins Super Bowls.
So I wrote all of this, I must have an idea about where Cutler's going right? I think I have even less of an idea now than when I started. If I had to guess I would say that it's either going to be an exremely convuluted multi-team trade or a single team will overpay drastically. If it goes the multi-team way Cutler could end up on any one of the eight teams, or possibly even 23 teams depending on how crazy the deal got. If Cutler is dealt for a massive package of draft picks and players look for the Jets or the Redskins to be starting Jay Cutler at QB next season.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Shuffle Off To Buffalo
So T.O. is a Buffalo Bill. He got a fully-guaranteed, 1-year $6.5 million dollar contract. Let's peep some of the different layers of this deal.
For the most part, this was a home run for the Bills. Do I believe that Terrell Owens destroys football teams? Yes. But not in Year 1. For T.O. Year 1 is all about proving the naysayers wrong and collecting that big first year money. Could the Bills have waited and maybe saved a few million? Could they have structured a contract that paid him based upon how many games he played? Sure. Would either of those options made T.O. happy? Not a prayer. The Bills paid T.O. fairly close to market value by choice. They've done a masterful job of setting the table here. T.O. has to be on top of his game (on and off the field) if he ever wants another payday and another day in the spotlight. He's paid and he has to be motivated somewhat by all of the teams who came out publicly and said they had no interest in T.O. or that T.O. was a cancer or that T.O. drops the ball too much. Worst case scenario the Bills cut him mid-season after he's decimated Trent Edwards' confidence completely. Best case scenario T.O. frees up Lee Evans to run wild and the holes for the running backs get bigger with each step back the opposing safety takes.
The Bills needed to make a splash. They really hadn't done so in years, pry since the Drew Bledsoe trade. If they want to maintain a stable franchise in Buffalo they have to either win a lot or garner a great deal of national attention which will in turn bring prime-time games and coverage back to Buffalo. This move should help the Toronto game quite a bit as Canadians are probably still curious about "that Owens guy".
Buffalo is running a bit of a locker room risk here. There's not a large veteran presence in the locker room to help keep Owens in check. Jauron is a good coach but he's on the hot seat as it is. I actually think this is going to be a very good experience for Trent Edwards. First off, he needed another weapon not named Evans or Lynch so bad it was actually kind of sad. Owens was the biggest playmaker available right now, by far. Owens has come out before and talked about how he makes quarterbacks better. In this case I actually think that Owens is going to be very motivated to turn Trent Edwards into a star. Because that will prove that T.O. makes the quarterback better, not T.O. needs a great quarterback to excel. Where were the Bills going before this move? They were 0-6 in the division last season and they've lost some players in free agency already.
The city of Buffalo is a unique place to live and be a sports fan. They only have the Bills and the Sabres and neither team exactly has a history of getting it done at crunch time. Every year these fans get their hearts crushed. And every off-season neither team has enough cash to keep their own players, much less buy somebody elses. But these fans slowly build up their faith and by the time the season starts, the whole city is ready to go. And they ultimately get let down, be it by the players, the coaches, ownership, management and the ever-fickle Gods of Sport. Hear this Terrell Eldorado Owens, these fans will love you in training camp. These fans will love you on Opening Day. They'll even love you after you drop that first easy pass any NFL wide receiver should catch. But if you open your mouth and that T.O. shit comes out of it you might as well just go home. This isn't Dallas where they encourage personalities to be larger than the team. This isn't Philly where the fanbase was so desperate for a playmaker that had T.O. never turned on the team he would still be the King of Philly right now. Those people loved T.O. so much deep down that when he was cut free a few days ago that they began to remember the "good" T.O. that they had for a little under a season. Couldn't happen, too many hearts broken, too many bridges burned. Beware son, beware.
After this there will be 1 A-Rod post and then I'm declaring a "Terrell Owens/Alex Rodriguez Free-Zone" until March 15. Unless either of them die they will not be mentioned in this space and I don't even think I'll even feel like talking about either of them at the bar over a couple of cold adult beverages.
For the most part, this was a home run for the Bills. Do I believe that Terrell Owens destroys football teams? Yes. But not in Year 1. For T.O. Year 1 is all about proving the naysayers wrong and collecting that big first year money. Could the Bills have waited and maybe saved a few million? Could they have structured a contract that paid him based upon how many games he played? Sure. Would either of those options made T.O. happy? Not a prayer. The Bills paid T.O. fairly close to market value by choice. They've done a masterful job of setting the table here. T.O. has to be on top of his game (on and off the field) if he ever wants another payday and another day in the spotlight. He's paid and he has to be motivated somewhat by all of the teams who came out publicly and said they had no interest in T.O. or that T.O. was a cancer or that T.O. drops the ball too much. Worst case scenario the Bills cut him mid-season after he's decimated Trent Edwards' confidence completely. Best case scenario T.O. frees up Lee Evans to run wild and the holes for the running backs get bigger with each step back the opposing safety takes.
The Bills needed to make a splash. They really hadn't done so in years, pry since the Drew Bledsoe trade. If they want to maintain a stable franchise in Buffalo they have to either win a lot or garner a great deal of national attention which will in turn bring prime-time games and coverage back to Buffalo. This move should help the Toronto game quite a bit as Canadians are probably still curious about "that Owens guy".
Buffalo is running a bit of a locker room risk here. There's not a large veteran presence in the locker room to help keep Owens in check. Jauron is a good coach but he's on the hot seat as it is. I actually think this is going to be a very good experience for Trent Edwards. First off, he needed another weapon not named Evans or Lynch so bad it was actually kind of sad. Owens was the biggest playmaker available right now, by far. Owens has come out before and talked about how he makes quarterbacks better. In this case I actually think that Owens is going to be very motivated to turn Trent Edwards into a star. Because that will prove that T.O. makes the quarterback better, not T.O. needs a great quarterback to excel. Where were the Bills going before this move? They were 0-6 in the division last season and they've lost some players in free agency already.
The city of Buffalo is a unique place to live and be a sports fan. They only have the Bills and the Sabres and neither team exactly has a history of getting it done at crunch time. Every year these fans get their hearts crushed. And every off-season neither team has enough cash to keep their own players, much less buy somebody elses. But these fans slowly build up their faith and by the time the season starts, the whole city is ready to go. And they ultimately get let down, be it by the players, the coaches, ownership, management and the ever-fickle Gods of Sport. Hear this Terrell Eldorado Owens, these fans will love you in training camp. These fans will love you on Opening Day. They'll even love you after you drop that first easy pass any NFL wide receiver should catch. But if you open your mouth and that T.O. shit comes out of it you might as well just go home. This isn't Dallas where they encourage personalities to be larger than the team. This isn't Philly where the fanbase was so desperate for a playmaker that had T.O. never turned on the team he would still be the King of Philly right now. Those people loved T.O. so much deep down that when he was cut free a few days ago that they began to remember the "good" T.O. that they had for a little under a season. Couldn't happen, too many hearts broken, too many bridges burned. Beware son, beware.
After this there will be 1 A-Rod post and then I'm declaring a "Terrell Owens/Alex Rodriguez Free-Zone" until March 15. Unless either of them die they will not be mentioned in this space and I don't even think I'll even feel like talking about either of them at the bar over a couple of cold adult beverages.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
T,O. Gets TKO'd
Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is a pattern. The Cowboys are the third franchise to cut ties with Terrell Owens. Owens has only played for three teams. (Although he once was traded to the Ravens and he promptly decided he didn't want to play for the Ravens. So we really don't count that as being on a team.) So what does it all mean? Well that's too deep of a question to explore today so let's just examine the obvious T.O. fallout.
The list of suitors for T.O. is going to be tiny. The money will be even smaller. Except for maybe the Raiders. They're the wild card and the obvious fit for T.O. at first glance. Al Davis might be willing to throw T.O. $5+ million for a season or two. Why not? T.O. could get his 8 billion targets per game and Russell would at least have a competent, healthy WR. It would ultimately be a disaster but what the hell right? Anyway, he only goes to a non-Al Davis team on a 1 year near the minimum with a couple of incentives deal. Let's just list the teams that Owens will NOT be playing for: Cowboys, 49er's, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Patriots, Dolphins, Chiefs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Falcons, Browns and Chargers. That's 18 teams. Add in the Raiders and it's 19 teams. Out of the remaining 13 teams I really can't see the Colts, Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Bengals, Lions, Rams or Texans adding Owens. So that leaves 5 teams (not owned by Al Davis) that I could see having some possible interest in Owens: Jaguars, Jets, Broncos, Titans and Bills. The Jaguars, Titans and Bills would only probably kick the tires because of positional needs and the fact that Owens could be had on the cheap. He would instantly be the best receiver on either the Jaguars or Titans and he could be the answer the Bills have been looking for opposite Lee Evans. Thing is I doubt any of the those 3 teams have a QB that could handle/satisfy Owens. The Jets are an interesting study. My guess would be they're not interested but it could be a fit, except for the Jets glaring hole at QB. The Jets will need to sell seats in their new stadium and Coles just hit the road. The Broncos would represent the most interesting option. Josh McDaniels saw Randy Moss reform why not T.O.? He could work opposite Brandon Marshall or replace Marshall for a period of time if Marshall is suspended. Is it going to happen? I doubt it. But remember, Brian Dawkins was a T.O. supporter and he's now one of the leaders in that Denver locker room.
Personally I've felt Owens has been a bit overrated and not worth the trouble for about the last 5 years. I hope that he goes to the Raiders and it fails spectacularly. Those press conferences alone will be worth the cost of admission. If Owens was properly motivated could he help a team? Absolutely. But it's always been about T.O. and that's the problem. He and Al Davis really deserve each other, just like Owens and Jerry Jones. I've said ever since Owens left Philly that no team with him on the roster would ever win a meaningful game. I stand by that.
What does this do for fantasy football values? Let's just look at the Cowboys real quick. I'm expecting Felix Jones to start, (playing the Julius Jones role) with Barber going back to his short yardage/redzone/4th quarter role. Without Owens both of those backs should be a bit more involved. I think this won't hurt Romo's value at all. Romo will no longer have to worry about forcing balls to Owens and Roy Williams is a better downfield threat than Owens at this point of his career. Williams could easily become a top-10 WR this year in fantasy. This solidifies Witten as the #1 fantasy TE in my mind. He should see increased redzone looks and this should offset any touches he might have lost to their other TE, Bennett. I don't think the Cowboys will make a big move at WR, maybe they bring in a veteran Bobby Ingram-type but that's about it. They'll draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th round and move on. If I had to rate the other Cowboys WR's right now it would be 1) Williams 2) Miles Austin 3) Patrick Crayton 4) Sam Hurd.
I know more than a few people in Philadelphia have suggested that Owens could return. McNabb would love him again and it would be all good. Not going to happen. You or I have a better chance of playing WR for the Eagles next year. Not even if he offered to pay the team a salary and offered to kiss Andy Reid's bare ass on Sportscenter. Not going to happen.
The list of suitors for T.O. is going to be tiny. The money will be even smaller. Except for maybe the Raiders. They're the wild card and the obvious fit for T.O. at first glance. Al Davis might be willing to throw T.O. $5+ million for a season or two. Why not? T.O. could get his 8 billion targets per game and Russell would at least have a competent, healthy WR. It would ultimately be a disaster but what the hell right? Anyway, he only goes to a non-Al Davis team on a 1 year near the minimum with a couple of incentives deal. Let's just list the teams that Owens will NOT be playing for: Cowboys, 49er's, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Patriots, Dolphins, Chiefs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Falcons, Browns and Chargers. That's 18 teams. Add in the Raiders and it's 19 teams. Out of the remaining 13 teams I really can't see the Colts, Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Bengals, Lions, Rams or Texans adding Owens. So that leaves 5 teams (not owned by Al Davis) that I could see having some possible interest in Owens: Jaguars, Jets, Broncos, Titans and Bills. The Jaguars, Titans and Bills would only probably kick the tires because of positional needs and the fact that Owens could be had on the cheap. He would instantly be the best receiver on either the Jaguars or Titans and he could be the answer the Bills have been looking for opposite Lee Evans. Thing is I doubt any of the those 3 teams have a QB that could handle/satisfy Owens. The Jets are an interesting study. My guess would be they're not interested but it could be a fit, except for the Jets glaring hole at QB. The Jets will need to sell seats in their new stadium and Coles just hit the road. The Broncos would represent the most interesting option. Josh McDaniels saw Randy Moss reform why not T.O.? He could work opposite Brandon Marshall or replace Marshall for a period of time if Marshall is suspended. Is it going to happen? I doubt it. But remember, Brian Dawkins was a T.O. supporter and he's now one of the leaders in that Denver locker room.
Personally I've felt Owens has been a bit overrated and not worth the trouble for about the last 5 years. I hope that he goes to the Raiders and it fails spectacularly. Those press conferences alone will be worth the cost of admission. If Owens was properly motivated could he help a team? Absolutely. But it's always been about T.O. and that's the problem. He and Al Davis really deserve each other, just like Owens and Jerry Jones. I've said ever since Owens left Philly that no team with him on the roster would ever win a meaningful game. I stand by that.
What does this do for fantasy football values? Let's just look at the Cowboys real quick. I'm expecting Felix Jones to start, (playing the Julius Jones role) with Barber going back to his short yardage/redzone/4th quarter role. Without Owens both of those backs should be a bit more involved. I think this won't hurt Romo's value at all. Romo will no longer have to worry about forcing balls to Owens and Roy Williams is a better downfield threat than Owens at this point of his career. Williams could easily become a top-10 WR this year in fantasy. This solidifies Witten as the #1 fantasy TE in my mind. He should see increased redzone looks and this should offset any touches he might have lost to their other TE, Bennett. I don't think the Cowboys will make a big move at WR, maybe they bring in a veteran Bobby Ingram-type but that's about it. They'll draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th round and move on. If I had to rate the other Cowboys WR's right now it would be 1) Williams 2) Miles Austin 3) Patrick Crayton 4) Sam Hurd.
I know more than a few people in Philadelphia have suggested that Owens could return. McNabb would love him again and it would be all good. Not going to happen. You or I have a better chance of playing WR for the Eagles next year. Not even if he offered to pay the team a salary and offered to kiss Andy Reid's bare ass on Sportscenter. Not going to happen.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
So What Does It All Mean?
"Kurt Warner re-upped, Ray Lewis re-upped, now who got a problem with dough?"
It appears Ray Lewis got about $7 million per year with a good amount guaranteed. That's not super-dough, but it's large. But this deal was a forgone conclusion. Linebackers not named Ray Lewis (or Terrell Suggs these days) have to leave Baltimore to get paid. Ray Lewis gets paid to stay. Lewis was quoted as saying that he would sign the deal that paid him the most money, regardless of who offered it. So I take that to mean that Baltimore offered more than any other team. There was a rumor that the Jets were interested but Lewis wanted insane money. But hey, rumors are rumors and Ray Lewis is a Raven.
I decided to compare the Brian Dawkins situation to the Ray Lewis situation. Might not be a completely even comparison but this isn't the SAT. Both are regarded to be on the back stretch of their careers. Most didn't think either was even the best at their position on their team last year. Both are regarded as the heart and soul of their respective franchises. Both of those franchises are coming off of conference championship game losses. Both teams had enough salary cap room to retain the players. That's enough in common to make a valid comparison. So what are the differences?
Kurt Warner re-signed with the Cardinals. Big surprise there huh? Couple of bat hits about that real quick.
It appears Ray Lewis got about $7 million per year with a good amount guaranteed. That's not super-dough, but it's large. But this deal was a forgone conclusion. Linebackers not named Ray Lewis (or Terrell Suggs these days) have to leave Baltimore to get paid. Ray Lewis gets paid to stay. Lewis was quoted as saying that he would sign the deal that paid him the most money, regardless of who offered it. So I take that to mean that Baltimore offered more than any other team. There was a rumor that the Jets were interested but Lewis wanted insane money. But hey, rumors are rumors and Ray Lewis is a Raven.
I decided to compare the Brian Dawkins situation to the Ray Lewis situation. Might not be a completely even comparison but this isn't the SAT. Both are regarded to be on the back stretch of their careers. Most didn't think either was even the best at their position on their team last year. Both are regarded as the heart and soul of their respective franchises. Both of those franchises are coming off of conference championship game losses. Both teams had enough salary cap room to retain the players. That's enough in common to make a valid comparison. So what are the differences?
- While most regard Ray Lewis as a player in decline he's still a top-tier middle linebacker. He doesn't make as many plays sideline-to-sideline as he used to but if the d-line can keep the big guys off of him he will make plays. Dawkins made plays in the second half of the season but he struggles mightily in coverage these days. The Eagles have really struggled defending against tight ends the past couple of seasons. That used to be a Dawkins job. Eagles fans will remember how tightly he used to play a young Jeremy Shockey.
- Both franchises made offers to the players before free agency opened. Lewis could not find other offers and Dawkins could.
- Both franchises talked about how much the players meant to their respective franchises and how important it was to retain these players. This came from owners, coaches and teammates. The Ravens made an aggressive offer to Lewis that was apparently very close to market value. The Eagles made Dawkins a decent offer but they did not offer the type of money in the first two years that the Broncos did. So on some level Lewis still knew he was wanted, Dawkins probably wasn't so sure based on the disparity between offers.
Kurt Warner re-signed with the Cardinals. Big surprise there huh? Couple of bat hits about that real quick.
- What were the 49er's thinking? Did they ever really think that Warner would sign with them? Maybe for top-5 QB money but why? The Niners are a re-building franchise that needs a future, not a Band-Aid. Outside of Frank Gore they don't really have much at the skill positions on offense. Plus, while Warner has proved to be a complete stud in certain situations, he's struggled mightily in others. He fits well in the controlled-climate stadium in the desert. How good would he be if he had to play most of his games truly outside?
- What does this mean for Anquan Boldin. My first instinct is that he's staying. My second instinct is that he's not going to get paid this year and that might cause some problems. I think Warner has some insight into this, his free agent status was the only thing that really gave him any leverage in the situation. Boldin is staying. My best guess is that the Cardinals re-work his deal with a massive bonus due after the season. At that point they can pay him or trade him. And Boldin knows that he's in a good situation, with a good QB with a big payday guaranteed (except for injury) on the horizon. Drew Rosenhaus won't be happy, but when is he ever?
- Where does Kurt Warner rank in fantasy football next season? It's a bit early to ask but I'm skeptical. I stole Warner in almost every league I was in last year and was loving it. But he won't sneak up on anybody this year and most likely will be in the top 5 QB's off the board. He just doesn't have a history of staying healthy and the Cardinals really need something at TE and a consistent running game. I still love Boldin and Fitzgerald but I'm wary about Warner. I would rather have (in no particular order): Peyton, Brees, Cutler, Rivers, Romo, Rodgers and Brady. So I guess I have Warner about 8th. I have him and McNabb about even.
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