August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings
RB
TIER 1
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Michael Turner
TIER 2
4. Matt Forte
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. Steve Slaton
TIER 3
8. Marion Barber III
9. Ladainian Tomlinson
10. Clinton Portis
11. DeAngelo Williams
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Frank Gore
TIER 4
14. Ryan Grant
15. Ronnie Brown
16. Brian Westbrook
17. Pierre Thomas
TIER 5
18. Thomas Jones
19. Kevin Smith
20. Marshawn Lynch
TIER 6
21. Darren McFadden
22. Joseph Addai
23. Jonathan Stewart
24. Derrick Ward
25. Reggie Bush
26. LenDale White
27. Beanie Wells
28. Willie Parker
TIER 7
29. Knowshon Moreno
30. Jamal Lewis
31. Cedric Benson
32. Felix Jones
33. Ray Rice
34. Fred Taylor
35. Jamal Charles
36. Donald Brown
37. Tim Hightower
TIER 8
38. Julius Jones
39. Jerome Harrison
40. Rashard Mendenhall
41. LeSean McCoy
42. Fred Jackson
43. Earnest Graham
44. Jerious Norwood
45. Chester Taylor
46. Laurence Maroney
47. Willis McGahee
48. Ahmad Bradshaw
49. Michael Bush
50. Justin Fargas
TIER 9
51. Ladell Betts
52. Sammy Morris
53. Leon Washington
54. Kevin Faulk
55. Kevin Jones
56. Greg Jones
57. Glen Coffee
58. Correll Buckhalter
59. Tashard Choice
60. Darren Sproles
Monday, August 3, 2009
Fantasy Football Pre-Season QB Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)
August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings
QB
TIER 1
1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
TIER 2
3. Aaron Rogers
4. Donovan McNabb
5. Tom Brady
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
TIER 3
8. Kurt Warner
9. Matt Ryan
10. Matt Schuab
TIER 4
11. Carson Palmer
12. Jay Cutler
13. Matt Hasselbeck
14. Jay Cutler
15. Kyle Orton
TIER 5
16. Jason Campbell
17. Eli Manning
18. Trent Edwards
19. Ben Roethlisberger
20. Matt Cassel
TIER 6
21. David Garrard
22. Jake Delhomme
23. Joe Flacco
TIER 7
24. Shaun Hill
25. Chad Pennington
26. Mark Sanchez
27. Brady Quinn
28. Marc Bulger
TIER 8
29. Sage Rosenfels
30. Matthew Stafford
31. Luke McCown
32. Pat White
33. Kerry Collins
TIER 9
34. Tavaris Jackson
35. Matt Leinart
36. Jeff Garcia
37. Byron Leftwich
38. Seneca Wallace
39. Jon Kitna
40. Derek Anderson
41. Tyler Thigpen
42. Alex Smtih
43. Kellen Clemens
TIER 10
44. Vince Young
45. Rex Grossman
46. Chris Simms
47. Josh Freeman
48. Chris Simms
49. Charlie Batch
50. Billy Volek
Pre-Season Rankings
QB
TIER 1
1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
TIER 2
3. Aaron Rogers
4. Donovan McNabb
5. Tom Brady
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
TIER 3
8. Kurt Warner
9. Matt Ryan
10. Matt Schuab
TIER 4
11. Carson Palmer
12. Jay Cutler
13. Matt Hasselbeck
14. Jay Cutler
15. Kyle Orton
TIER 5
16. Jason Campbell
17. Eli Manning
18. Trent Edwards
19. Ben Roethlisberger
20. Matt Cassel
TIER 6
21. David Garrard
22. Jake Delhomme
23. Joe Flacco
TIER 7
24. Shaun Hill
25. Chad Pennington
26. Mark Sanchez
27. Brady Quinn
28. Marc Bulger
TIER 8
29. Sage Rosenfels
30. Matthew Stafford
31. Luke McCown
32. Pat White
33. Kerry Collins
TIER 9
34. Tavaris Jackson
35. Matt Leinart
36. Jeff Garcia
37. Byron Leftwich
38. Seneca Wallace
39. Jon Kitna
40. Derek Anderson
41. Tyler Thigpen
42. Alex Smtih
43. Kellen Clemens
TIER 10
44. Vince Young
45. Rex Grossman
46. Chris Simms
47. Josh Freeman
48. Chris Simms
49. Charlie Batch
50. Billy Volek
Friday, April 3, 2009
Friday's NHL Squiggles
I really just wanted to use the word squiggles. Squiggles are crooked lines, plus it's really just a pretty kill word. Anyhow.....
P.U.T.P.W. (Possible Upsets That Pay Well)
Maple Leafs (+250) @ Flyers
Flames (E) @ Wild
D.N.L. (Damn Near Locks)
Devils (-350) vs Lightning
Blackhawks (-200) vs Predators
B.T.E.O.V. (Beware The Eyes Of Vegas)
Capitals (-160) vs Sabres
NOTES
YOU SAY HIGH, I SAY LOW
Leafs @ Flyers - Under 6.5
Lightning @ Devils - Over 5.5
Sabres @ Capitals - Under 6
Thrashers @ Panthers - Over 6
Flames @ Wild - Under 5
Predators @ Blackhawks - Under 5.5
NOTES
P.U.T.P.W. (Possible Upsets That Pay Well)
Maple Leafs (+250) @ Flyers
Flames (E) @ Wild
D.N.L. (Damn Near Locks)
Devils (-350) vs Lightning
Blackhawks (-200) vs Predators
B.T.E.O.V. (Beware The Eyes Of Vegas)
Capitals (-160) vs Sabres
NOTES
- Leafs @ Flyers is closer to a coin flip than you think. Biron is 1-2 vs Leafs this year.
- Flames are 5-0 vs Wild this year
- Kevin Weekes is 2-0 this year vs Lightning. Lecavalier is out for the season. Devils are due for a breakout game.
- Khabibulin is undefeated vs Predators this season. Blackhawks clinch playoff berth with win.
- Capitals are starting rookie Varlamov in goal tonight. Buffalo must win to stay alive in playoff chase.
YOU SAY HIGH, I SAY LOW
Leafs @ Flyers - Under 6.5
Lightning @ Devils - Over 5.5
Sabres @ Capitals - Under 6
Thrashers @ Panthers - Over 6
Flames @ Wild - Under 5
Predators @ Blackhawks - Under 5.5
NOTES
- I'd stay away from the Flyers game, the Capitals game and the Devils game as far as the under/over goes if possible.
Random Cutler Links
I figured I'd just beat the dead horse. Thanks Worldwide Leader! I learned by watching you!
- Is Cutler the answer? (Allen Iverson declined to comment)
- Jason Campbell is not Jay Cutler
- Cutler already has issues with Bears coordinator?
The Cutler Trade (A Historical Perspective)
Cutler Trade
The Bears gave up: (full details here)
2009 1st round pick
2009 3rd round pick
2010 1st round pick
Kyle Orton
*Bears receive Jay Cutler and a 2009 5th round pick
Looks like a lot huh? Let's compare this trade to some other large trades in the last couple of decades.
Herschel Walker Trade
The Vikings gave up: (full details here)
3 1st round picks
3 2nd round picks
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
3 players
*Vikings receive Herschel Walker, 2 3rd round picks, 1 5th round pick, 1 10th round pick
Some of these picks were conditions, check out the link for the full breakdown. Overall this was a miserable failure for the Vikings. The Cowboys literally turned this haul of draft picks and players into a dynasty. History is shown that you can rebuild through the draft. So the more quality picks you have, the faster you can rebuild. Positional value is a bit different these days, I don't know if a team could get 2 first round picks in exchange for a running back today. Probably for Peterson. But quarterbacks are so highly valued. (Looking at the Cutler trade I would I guess that the assigned value for Kyle Orton was a 2nd round pick. That's not a throw in.) If Walker was in his prime today my guess is you could get a 1st and a 3rd for him. So comparatively, the Cutler trade looks like a bank robbery with a clean getaway.
The Jon Gruden Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
2 2nd round draft picks
Cash (rumored to be several million dollars)
*Bucs receive coach Jon Gruden
Yeah I know Gruden was a coach, but it's the actual trade I'm looking at. The Bucs claim they would do this trade again 100% of the time because they won the Super Bowl. How do they know that they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl anyway with Tony Dungy? I guess you could argue that they might have lost to Gruden in the Super Bowl if he coached the Raiders. But the NFC that year was basically just the Eagles and Bucs. But they did get Gruden and did win the Super Bowl so it the trade worked, they won the battle. But they ultimately lost the war because they were never able to add high-end young talent to their nucleus. They had an elite defense for years but could never get over the top after that Super Bowl. No one will ever pay this much for a coach ever again. I just can't see it happening. There is a reason it seems like the Bucs got old and fell apart all at once and this trade (and the Keyshawn trade) are at the heart of that reason. I like the Cutler deal better than this trade. Plus there will be some great coaches on the open market next year, there won't be any 25 year old starting quarterbacks who've been to the Pro Bowl already.
The Keyshawn Johnson Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
*Bucs receive Keyshawn Johnson
I could basically say the same things about the Johnson trade as I did about the Gruden trade. At the time the Bucs had a good-to-great defense and their offense have Dunn/Alstott and nothing. I guess their thinking was "if we can't get a good QB let's at least get a good WR". So they went out and got Keyshawn. Did Keyshawn play a key role in winning the Super Bowl? Yes he did. Looking back on it, I like this trade more than the Gruden trade. At least Keyshawn was later traded for Joey Galloway who gave the Bucs a couple of good years. These days Anquan Boldin is a good comparison for Keyshawn's value and it looks like Boldin would cost a 1st round pick and maybe a player in trade. So the Bucs overpaid for Keyshawn a bit, but they did need him. I like the Cutler trade a bit more than this, but by itself was a pretty good trade. When coupled with the Gruden trade it completely mortgaged the Bucs' future.
The Joey Galloway Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round picks
*Cowboys receive Joey Galloway
This is a classic Jerry Jones swinging for the fences trade. 2 first rounders was way too much to give up for Galloway and it never really worked out for the Cowboys. Maybe Jones felt bad about getting such a haul for Walker from the Vikings. No matter what way you cut it, the Cutler trade looks like a home run compared to this deal.
The Roy Williams Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
*Cowboys receive Roy Williams and a 7th round pick
Too early to really evaluate this deal. This is only 1 first rounder less than the Cutler deal. Which makes it quite pricey for a WR deal in this era. This is probably the baseline deal for any other WR deals this year. Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin, I'm talkin to you. Jerry Jones overpaid for two reasons. First he needed T.O. leverage. He ultimately leveraged him right out of town. Second, Jones was pretty sure that if he didn't get Williams before the trade deadline, the Eagles would get him before the draft this year. Given the fact that the Eagles have two first round picks he was probably right.
The Jared Allen Trade
The Vikings give up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
2 3rd round picks
*Vikings receive Jared Allen and sway 6th round picks with the Chiefs
Given the value being placed on premium pass-rushers today, this was a pretty good deal. Jared Allen is one of the best in the NFL and he's squarely in his prime. I doubt you could completely replace him, even with an extra first and a couple thirds. I'd put this deal slightly ahead of the Cutler deal. Part of that is because it seems like it's working out well for the Vikings and Allen was a bit more proven when he was trade than Cutler was.
The Eli Manning Trade
The Giants gave up: (full details here)
Philip Rivers
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 5th round pick
*Giants receive Eli Manning
Here's another deal that the team claims they'd do again 100% of the time when given the chance. Just for the record, the 1st round pick they gave up turned in Shawne Merriman, the 3rd round pick turned into a Pro Bowl kicker and the 5th round pick was traded for a guy who started at LT for the Chargers for a while. You're telling me the Giants couldn't have won the Super Bowl with Philip Rivers AND Merriman instead of Eli? Don't lie to make friends. But in a vacuum (assume I don't know who the draft picks turn into) I still don't know how much I like this trade. Rivers was every bit of the pro prospect Manning was. I like Manning and Rivers more than Kyle Orton but it's not a crazy comparison, at least between Manning and Orton. Seriously, check the stats. It looks like the Bears still gave up more for Cutler than the Giants gave up for Eli, if you grade Rivers much high than Orton. Which I would. But Cutler is at least mostly proven himself, Eli just had a last name and some college film We'll call it a draw, for now.
I've ignored other deals here obviously, I just wanted to compared deals where a large package of picks was traded for a single player. I know there have been other deals but these were more prominent in my mind when I wrote this. I wanted to avoid draft day deals but there's one deal I need to address. Okay, had to add the Eli deal. When I look at the Cutler deal compared to these other deals, I see pretty good value. Did the Bears pay out the ass for Cutler? Absolutely. Might it be worth it? Probably. I'm assuming Cutler stays mostly healthy and plays football for another 10 years. You've got to figure if Cutler could start for the Bears for 10 years he's at least worth the two first round picks. You know the Bears would blow at least two more first rounders on QB's in the next ten years if they didn't have Cutler. That alone seems to make it worth it for me. Physically, Cutler is a good fit for playing in the NFC North and he'll be embraced in Chicago so hard and so fast, he'll be quite scared.
The one thing nobody has talked about yet is Cutler's contract. He's received most of the money already due to the bonus structure of the deal. I believe he's making just over $1 million this year. For a starting QB, that's insane. I've always been of the position that if the Broncos had just offered Cutler an extension he would've taken it and it would've been all good between Cutler and the Broncos. Yet the Broncos chose not to offer an extension, nor has an extension been announced in conjunction with this trade. Given the acrimony between the Broncos franchise and Cutler it's quite possible that the Bears never spoke to Cutler before acquiring him. At the least, no substantive contract took place. Just something to watch out for in the coming weeks. I wonder if the Bears are waiting for the Giants to extend Eli? It will be interesting to see which QB signs his extension first, especially given the current economic climate and upcoming CBA talks.
The Bears gave up: (full details here)
2009 1st round pick
2009 3rd round pick
2010 1st round pick
Kyle Orton
*Bears receive Jay Cutler and a 2009 5th round pick
Looks like a lot huh? Let's compare this trade to some other large trades in the last couple of decades.
Herschel Walker Trade
The Vikings gave up: (full details here)
3 1st round picks
3 2nd round picks
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
3 players
*Vikings receive Herschel Walker, 2 3rd round picks, 1 5th round pick, 1 10th round pick
Some of these picks were conditions, check out the link for the full breakdown. Overall this was a miserable failure for the Vikings. The Cowboys literally turned this haul of draft picks and players into a dynasty. History is shown that you can rebuild through the draft. So the more quality picks you have, the faster you can rebuild. Positional value is a bit different these days, I don't know if a team could get 2 first round picks in exchange for a running back today. Probably for Peterson. But quarterbacks are so highly valued. (Looking at the Cutler trade I would I guess that the assigned value for Kyle Orton was a 2nd round pick. That's not a throw in.) If Walker was in his prime today my guess is you could get a 1st and a 3rd for him. So comparatively, the Cutler trade looks like a bank robbery with a clean getaway.
The Jon Gruden Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
2 2nd round draft picks
Cash (rumored to be several million dollars)
*Bucs receive coach Jon Gruden
Yeah I know Gruden was a coach, but it's the actual trade I'm looking at. The Bucs claim they would do this trade again 100% of the time because they won the Super Bowl. How do they know that they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl anyway with Tony Dungy? I guess you could argue that they might have lost to Gruden in the Super Bowl if he coached the Raiders. But the NFC that year was basically just the Eagles and Bucs. But they did get Gruden and did win the Super Bowl so it the trade worked, they won the battle. But they ultimately lost the war because they were never able to add high-end young talent to their nucleus. They had an elite defense for years but could never get over the top after that Super Bowl. No one will ever pay this much for a coach ever again. I just can't see it happening. There is a reason it seems like the Bucs got old and fell apart all at once and this trade (and the Keyshawn trade) are at the heart of that reason. I like the Cutler deal better than this trade. Plus there will be some great coaches on the open market next year, there won't be any 25 year old starting quarterbacks who've been to the Pro Bowl already.
The Keyshawn Johnson Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
*Bucs receive Keyshawn Johnson
I could basically say the same things about the Johnson trade as I did about the Gruden trade. At the time the Bucs had a good-to-great defense and their offense have Dunn/Alstott and nothing. I guess their thinking was "if we can't get a good QB let's at least get a good WR". So they went out and got Keyshawn. Did Keyshawn play a key role in winning the Super Bowl? Yes he did. Looking back on it, I like this trade more than the Gruden trade. At least Keyshawn was later traded for Joey Galloway who gave the Bucs a couple of good years. These days Anquan Boldin is a good comparison for Keyshawn's value and it looks like Boldin would cost a 1st round pick and maybe a player in trade. So the Bucs overpaid for Keyshawn a bit, but they did need him. I like the Cutler trade a bit more than this, but by itself was a pretty good trade. When coupled with the Gruden trade it completely mortgaged the Bucs' future.
The Joey Galloway Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round picks
*Cowboys receive Joey Galloway
This is a classic Jerry Jones swinging for the fences trade. 2 first rounders was way too much to give up for Galloway and it never really worked out for the Cowboys. Maybe Jones felt bad about getting such a haul for Walker from the Vikings. No matter what way you cut it, the Cutler trade looks like a home run compared to this deal.
The Roy Williams Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
*Cowboys receive Roy Williams and a 7th round pick
Too early to really evaluate this deal. This is only 1 first rounder less than the Cutler deal. Which makes it quite pricey for a WR deal in this era. This is probably the baseline deal for any other WR deals this year. Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin, I'm talkin to you. Jerry Jones overpaid for two reasons. First he needed T.O. leverage. He ultimately leveraged him right out of town. Second, Jones was pretty sure that if he didn't get Williams before the trade deadline, the Eagles would get him before the draft this year. Given the fact that the Eagles have two first round picks he was probably right.
The Jared Allen Trade
The Vikings give up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
2 3rd round picks
*Vikings receive Jared Allen and sway 6th round picks with the Chiefs
Given the value being placed on premium pass-rushers today, this was a pretty good deal. Jared Allen is one of the best in the NFL and he's squarely in his prime. I doubt you could completely replace him, even with an extra first and a couple thirds. I'd put this deal slightly ahead of the Cutler deal. Part of that is because it seems like it's working out well for the Vikings and Allen was a bit more proven when he was trade than Cutler was.
The Eli Manning Trade
The Giants gave up: (full details here)
Philip Rivers
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 5th round pick
*Giants receive Eli Manning
Here's another deal that the team claims they'd do again 100% of the time when given the chance. Just for the record, the 1st round pick they gave up turned in Shawne Merriman, the 3rd round pick turned into a Pro Bowl kicker and the 5th round pick was traded for a guy who started at LT for the Chargers for a while. You're telling me the Giants couldn't have won the Super Bowl with Philip Rivers AND Merriman instead of Eli? Don't lie to make friends. But in a vacuum (assume I don't know who the draft picks turn into) I still don't know how much I like this trade. Rivers was every bit of the pro prospect Manning was. I like Manning and Rivers more than Kyle Orton but it's not a crazy comparison, at least between Manning and Orton. Seriously, check the stats. It looks like the Bears still gave up more for Cutler than the Giants gave up for Eli, if you grade Rivers much high than Orton. Which I would. But Cutler is at least mostly proven himself, Eli just had a last name and some college film We'll call it a draw, for now.
I've ignored other deals here obviously, I just wanted to compared deals where a large package of picks was traded for a single player. I know there have been other deals but these were more prominent in my mind when I wrote this. I wanted to avoid draft day deals but there's one deal I need to address. Okay, had to add the Eli deal. When I look at the Cutler deal compared to these other deals, I see pretty good value. Did the Bears pay out the ass for Cutler? Absolutely. Might it be worth it? Probably. I'm assuming Cutler stays mostly healthy and plays football for another 10 years. You've got to figure if Cutler could start for the Bears for 10 years he's at least worth the two first round picks. You know the Bears would blow at least two more first rounders on QB's in the next ten years if they didn't have Cutler. That alone seems to make it worth it for me. Physically, Cutler is a good fit for playing in the NFC North and he'll be embraced in Chicago so hard and so fast, he'll be quite scared.
The one thing nobody has talked about yet is Cutler's contract. He's received most of the money already due to the bonus structure of the deal. I believe he's making just over $1 million this year. For a starting QB, that's insane. I've always been of the position that if the Broncos had just offered Cutler an extension he would've taken it and it would've been all good between Cutler and the Broncos. Yet the Broncos chose not to offer an extension, nor has an extension been announced in conjunction with this trade. Given the acrimony between the Broncos franchise and Cutler it's quite possible that the Bears never spoke to Cutler before acquiring him. At the least, no substantive contract took place. Just something to watch out for in the coming weeks. I wonder if the Bears are waiting for the Giants to extend Eli? It will be interesting to see which QB signs his extension first, especially given the current economic climate and upcoming CBA talks.
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