NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Before we get into this weeks picks let's look at how I did last week:

• Cardinals (+2.5) vs Falcons - WINNER
• Eagles (-3) @ Vikings - WINNER
• Colts (-1) @ Chargers - LOSER
• Ravens (-3) @ Dolphins - WINNER

Three outta four ain't bad. Plus the Indy pick looked good until very late. The boy Sproles really got it done. And the Colts shot themselves in the leg (which from now on will be known as Plaxico-ing or Burress-ing yourself) with all of the late defensive penalties. I personally think the defensive holding call was bullshit but I think the other calls were pretty legit, especially the face mask.

AFC

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Tennessee Titans
I'm making this pick assuming Ed Reed plays. If Ed Reed were to miss the game I may be inclined to lean towards the Titans, depending on how the line moves. At the end of the day let's just assume that both teams have moderate success running the ball. Give em each a TD and two red-zone possessions that Bironas and Stover convert. A nice boring 13-13 ball game. This game is going to come down to (1) Which team turns the ball over more (2) Which team converts its' red-zone possessions into TD's instead of field goals. Other than LenDale White, most of the Titans touchdowns have been of the 25+ yard variety. Only 1 or 2 of Justin Gage's touchdowns came on red-zone possessions and any fantasy football owner can tell you no other receivers or tight ends really scored touchdowns for the Titans. Then you've got Derrick Mason (playing lights out and hurt) back in Tennessee against his former team and Todd Heap who's actually looked pretty decent the past month or so. Don't forget that Flacco can tuck the ball and go a little bit too. I'll take the Ravens and points in that case. Tell you this though, if either team scores a special teams or defensive touchdown they win, game over. Also TAKE THE UNDER (35 POINTS) BEFORE THE LINE MOVES DOWN!

San Diego Chargers (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Quick disclaimer here, I'm pretty sure the Steelers win this game. But 6 points is just too many points to give right now with the firepower the Chargers have shown on offense. Not having LT will hurt put the Chargers have a couple of backs beside Sproles and I think they'll be able to at least put together a combined 100 yards. Considering the Steelers only give up 80 yards rushing a game, that ain't bad. I could see Sproles popping a return for big yardage as well. The Steelers secondary is good but not great. The Steelers pass rush has usually kept the secondary from having to cover for long periods of time. If the Chargers can slow down the rush of James Harrison and company Jackson, Gates and Chambers should be able to create separation or find spots to get open down-field. On the other side of the ball look at "Fast" Willie Parker. If the he shows up and gets his 100+ yards on 20+ carries I'm not sure that the Chargers can win unless the Steelers just self-destruct in the red-zone. The Chargers boast one of the worst statistical pass defenses in the league. Look for Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to go to down. Don't sleep on Heath Miller either, the Chargers are just about the WORST team in the league when it comes to covering the tight end. This just feels like a 24-20 victory by the Steelers. If you're going to make a bet this way get it in now, as more people take the Chargers and the points the line will most likely go down to where it should be around 3.5. While we're at it, go ahead and take the OVER at 38 points. If it gets up to about 41 or above you're on your own.

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ New York Giants
If you don't read Bill Simmons over on ESPN you should. He's got some great rules when it comes to betting in the playoffs. He's just one of the many, many people that would tell you that you're smoked picking against the world champs at home, coming off of a bye week. Here's my one stat I'll trot out today. Counting their game on November 20, 2005 the Giants and the Eagles have played 9 times. Why is November 20, 2005 significant? Because that's the last time the favorite covered. Seriously. In fact, in those nine games the favored team has only managed to win the game 3 times. I personally think this game should be Giants (-1.5) so I'm going against myself not to take the Eagles and the points. These are two teams that are built more similar than you would imagine. Both teams can rush the passer well, create turnovers and cover on the back end. I'd rather have the Giants defensive ends but other than that I'd actually give a slight edge to the Eagles at every other defensive position except I'd call middle linebacker a draw between Bradley and Pierce. On offense both teams have nice offensive lines with a slight edge to the Giants. The Giants also have the edge at running back but you'd be fool to discount Brian Westbrook or even Correll Buckhalter. Give me McNabb over Eli and the Eagles WR's over those of the Giants. Call Boss vs. Celek a wash. The Eagles also get the edge in special teams, both on coverage and returns. By my calculations that means I like the Eagles more than the Giants. But the Giants have home-field and the world champion swagger. Look for this one to be a more traditional NFC East game with lots of hitting and defense, but somehow lots of scoring at the same time. I'll take the OVER at 40 but I would hesitate to go much over 45.

Carolina Panthers (-10) vs Arizona Cardinals
Look at me picking a home team to cover. Truth be told, if I thought that Boldin was going to play at anything close to 100% I'd be taking the Cardinals. Again, not to win, but starting the game with 10 points is big. The Panthers are actually only 1-3 ATS (Against The Spread) at home this year, with one of those spread losses coming against the Cardinals. Arizona actually led for quite a while in that game and almost blew it at the end. The Cardinals did an excellent job against Michael Turner last week. But everybody forgets that Turner never really did a ton outside of a dome this year. He played (I believe) 11 of 16 games in a dome so you really didn't notice it that much. Stopping Williams and Stewart in Carolina is a whole different ballgame. Between those two and Steve Smith I think the Panthers have enough to win the game right there. For the Cardinals to win this game, Edge is going to have to turn back the clock. And keep spinning it backwards for a few years. If the Cardinals come out with a run/pass ratio of 30/70 or worse they're done. Even if the run game is ineffective they have to stick with it, especially without Boldin. James has to break at least 1 long TD run. The lack of a real tight end could also really bite the Cardinals in the ass this game. Give Arizona the special teams edge but it's just not enough. The Cardinals will make a game of this but if Warner does his thing and turns the ball over while trying to lead a comeback, the Panthers will cover. This is the hardest game to call as far as the under/over goes but if you stuck the proverbial gun to my head I'd take the UNDER at 49.

Betting lines courtesy of Bodog and are accurate as of Thursday, January 8, 2009 at 11 AM.