Fantasy Football 2009 Preview - Team RB Capsules (Part 2)

Here's PART 2 of our Team RB Capsules. These are snapshots of each teams' RB situation designed to help you plan for your fantasy football draft this year. As always feedback is welcome. Click here for PART 1.

-It really could end up being a mess in Seattle. The good news is new coach Jim Mora Jr. likes to run the football. And if Walter Jones is fairly healthy the Seahawks should have a decent line. The real question is who is going to get the football? This looks like a really murky timeshare. Right now it looks like Julius Jones will start and TJ Duckett will get the short yardage and goal line carries. The listed 3rd string RB right now is Justin Forsett who some will remember as a pre-season darling for the Colts last year. So he does have some ability, file that away for the inevitable Julius Jones injury. Right now I really wouldn't draft any of these backs. Duckett will have more value in a TD only league, Jones will have slightly more value (than the usual no value) in a PPR league. I would draft quite a few #2 RB's before I would take a flier on these guys.

-Yet another murky situation lurks in Kansas City. The only good news is the Chiefs should be pretty lousy. Their defense will be sub-par yet again and they don't have much on offense outside of Dwayne Bowe. So you can just temper your expectations for Chiefs' RB's. That being said, which one do you want, Jamaal Charles or Larry Johnson? In a PPR it's Charles, in a TD-only league it's Johnson. Unfortunately, that's about as cut and dry as it gets. Best guess? This is about a 50-50 timeshare. Johnson will get the goal line looks and 4th quarter carries if the Chiefs somehow have a lead. When the Chiefs are trailing you will see a lot of Charles on the field because of his ability to catch the ball. Charles will probably be more consistent week-to-week but Johnson could have the occasional 2-TD game. Should Johnson get hurt, Charles might get a big bump up though.

-Miami might not be as clear a situation as you would think. Instinctively you would think that Ronnie Brown should be in line for a good season. Not to say he isn't. But is he a rock-sold #2 fantasy RB? Maybe. Good news, he is another year removed from the ACL tear, the Dolphins have a good run-blocking line and they will be a run first team. Bad news, Ricky Williams is still around and will get carries (just not enough to be anything more than a handcuff in all but very deep leagues), a 3rd RB (Patrick Cobbs) will see some time on the field on passing downs and Ronnie Brown will no longer be the "QB" in Miami's Wildcat formation. Ronnie Brown's total touch downs for the last 4 seasons? 5,5,5 and 10 last year. But subtract that first game against New England where the Patriots got blindsided when the Dolphins debuted the Wildcat. That's 4 TD's off. So that's only 6 TD's the rest of the year. Brown looks like a matchups play only unless he is getting 80%+ of the carries.

-Does anybody not love Matt Forte? If not you should. He's probably the #1 pick in a PPR league this year. Seriously. The Bears are going to run the football a ton. They might not pass that effectively but Cutler will throw downfield enough to open things up for Forte more than last year. The surprising note here? Kevin Jones will have value this year. He will be one of the 10 most important handcuffs and he will actually end up with a bit of value on his own, slightly more in a PPR. In short, if you draft Forte you're drafting Jones. If you don't have Forte, Jones makes for an interesting late round flier, for his upside in the case of a Forte injury and for his trade value to the Forte owner in your league.

-The Lions RB situation has been one of the most low-key in the league. And this will work out for you. Kevin Smith has absolutely crazy upside, and a RB job all to himself. Repeat, this DOES NOT look like a timeshare. Maurice Morris will see some 3rd down work and give Smith the occasional breather, but that's about it. The only downside Smith has is the Lions are still the Lions and their defense should be terrible. This might limit Smith's carries somewhat but he's very effective at catching the ball so he should be on the field, regardless. Smith is a rock-solid 2nd round pick and a low end RB1 who you might be able to steal in Round 3 or 4.

-Mark Sanchez is the big story for the New York Jets right now. They have talent at RB, but that's not the story. Thomas Jones is turning 31, wants a new deal and has been the subject of trade rumors. Leon Washington is a dynamic player who wants to be paid like a starting RB. Shonn Greene is the rookie RB the Jets moved up in the draft for. Which RB do you want? It probably depends on your league. If you league is a PPR and/or counts return yards, Washington is probably your guy to target, especially considering how much later you can get him compared to Thomas Jones. In a a keeper league Shonn Greene needs to be on your radar because he will be the Jets' starting RB sooner than later. In a TD-only league I still think it's Jones. The good news is the Jets are going to run the ball. A lot. It's Coach Ryan's style, plus he's going to try to insulate Sanchez as much as possible. In other words, they're all going to have some value. Jones still probably has the most upside as he will start and see most of the goal line carries. The rumor de-jour has been that Greene might be the 4th quarter slash burn out the clock back. I'm not sure if I buy it yet, but Greene is a must-have handcuff for Jones owners. In a 10-team standard league I would avoid Jones until at least Round 4. Ideally he's your RB3 this year, but with high-end RB2 upside.

-What to do with the Cowboys? Rumors have been rampant about Jones, Barber and Choice. Let's make it easy. Marion Barber is a RB1 this year still. He will score, get carries and even catch the ball. Take him over Portis. If you pick at the end of the first round, you could do much, much worse than Barber. Felix Jones will have great value in any league that counts return yardage and/or is a PPR. He'll make an excellent bye-week fill-in and will be a matchups guy. Tashard Choice is the handcuff you need to have for Barber. Should something happen to Barber, Choice would become the starter with Jones staying in his complimentary role. This makes Choice a great upside/trade value guy to target late in your draft, especially in a larger league.

-Is this a bounce-back year for Ryan Grant? Let somebody else find out. The Packers can throw the hell out of the ball and there's no reason for them to throw less. Especially considering that they're having a rough transition to a 3-4 defense and will probably play from behind a lot more than they'll be playing with a lead. Grant just doesn't catch the ball enough and hasn't shown much breakaway ability in recent memory. DeShawn Wynn is getting a lot of ink about possibly being the backup or handcuff to Grant as opposed to Brandon Jackson but I don't know if it really matters. Should Grant go down or lose his job, it's pretty much a timeshare anyway. In most leagues, you just want the guy who will get the ball in the red zone and at the goal line. Grant actually posted better numbers than you would think last season but he just doesn't seem to be set up real well for success this season. Don't target his early but if you can draft him in Round 5 or later as a low end RB2 or ideally a high end RB3 he shouldn't hurt you and will offer some decent upside as a possible low-end RB1 if everything fell perfectly for him.

-Which Frank Gore are you going to get this year? You're going to get the one who touches to ball. A lot. Mike Singletary is going to run the rock a ton. Seriously, think about who the Niners are going to start at QB. If Gore stays healthy he should be a top-10 fantasy RB this year, no questions asked, top-5 in a PPR. Is rookie Glenn Coffee going to get some carries? Absolutely. Is that going to hurt Gore? Absolutely not. If anything hopefully a bit of a timeshare should help Gore stay fresh and avoid nagging injuries. But that does make Coffee a pretty important handcuff for Gore owners. It doesn't look like Coffee will have much value on his own, unless he ends up being the designated goal line back.

-The Raiders organization is a disaster. The good news is, the only thing they really can do is run the ball. Of course it's a messed up timeshare but were you really expecting something else? The guy who will score the most fantasy points (provided everybody is healthy) is Darren McFadden. He's worth a high pick in a keeper league. In most leagues he should be drafted as a high-end RB3 or low-end RB2. But there will probably be somebody in your league that takes McFadden in Round 2 or 3. That's a bit too high. Remember, the Raiders will run the ball a ton, but they will also be trailing in more games than they will be leading. So like McFadden, just don't take him as your RB1 right now. The guy who will see the second most touches should be Mike Bush. In fact, should the Raiders have a 4th quarter lead, it will probably be Bush or Fargas on the field. I think Fargas is really just a handcuff here, he would have some value should Bush or McFadden get hurt. And both of them do have a history of getting hurt. Should Bush be traded to a team where he could start, he could be an absolute monster.

-The Steelers are a team that likes to run the football. The question is, who is going to run it? Aren't most people just done with Willie Parker at this point? I know I am. The only problem is that Parker might actually make for a decent draft pick if you get him late. Should he start the year like gang-busters and stay healthy, Parker could be a rock-solid RB2. But I doubt it. He gets hurt, doesn't score TD's and doesn't catch the ball. So who else is there? Rashard Mendenhall should be the guy. But he's gotten hurt, and when he's been on the field, he really hasn't accomplished squat. Could Mwelde Moore have some value? It looks like it. Hell, Gary Russell was the TD guy last year, that's more that Willie Parker can say. Still, if you can get Parker in Round 7 or later it might end up being huge for you. Just make sure you handcuff him to Mendenhall and monitor how many looks Moore gets.

-You think you should love Matt Forte? Love Pierre Thomas. He will be the RB for the Saints. He will outscore Reggie Bush. Sure in a PPR league, Bush is going to have some value. But Thomas has always shown that he can be an outstanding RB whenever he's gotten the chance. And he's going to get many, many chances this year. Thomas could end up being a low-end RB1. Really. Round 2 is not too early to take him. I would avoid Bush in a non-PPR but I actually think that he's the handcuff for Thomas, not the other way around. Draft Pierre Thomas. That's all there is to it.

-Do you really want anything to do with Cedric Benson? The only good news is that he will remain the starting RB for the Bengals, because for them he's Nino and G-Money (all they got). Brian Leonard had some buzz coming out of Rutgers but was a bust when given the chance to start for an injured Steven Jackson. Factor in the Bengals' lousy defense and their ability to throw the ball and it just doesn't look like any Bengals RB will be in much of a position to succeed. Any starting RB has value but Benson probably has less value than any starting RB not named Julius Jones.

-Derrick Ward is the hot name right now at RB for the Bucs. And he's going to get his carries. But this has all the makings of a 50/50 timeshare. It looks like Ward will see the work on passing downs and Graham will get the goal line carries and they'll most likely split anything else. That makes them both lower-end RB3's and matchup starts. But should one of them get hurt, the other should really increase in value. They're not really true handcuffs, nor do I think you could start both of them at once in fantasy, unless the matchup was perfect. Throw in the Bucs questions at QB, WR and on D and think they're going to struggle to run the ball a lot. Graham might be the better value as he's listed as the starter, is the returning starter and is going several rounds later than Ward. Don't get caught up in Ward's stats from the last 2 seasons.

-Ray Rice will be that starting RB for the Ravens. Willis McGahee is his handcuff and will see some carries regardless. The big question here is what role LeRon McClain plays. It looks like he will spend the majority of his time at fullback. If this is true it's a pretty big bump in value for Rice and even McGahee. Coach Harbaugh will most likely ride the hot hand so if you want Rice I would handcuff him to McGahee. LeRon McClain is a risky draft pick, wait and see if any news on him comes out before wasting anything but a late-round pick on him.

-Jamal Lewis is still the starting RB for the Browns. How long that lasts, nobody knows. This looks like it will be a timeshare with Jerome Harrison from jump street. And don't discount Harrison. He's flashed some ability when given the ball. Mangini likes to run the ball and has no allegiance to either back. Look for Lewis to get the goal line carries and possibly the 4th quarter, run out the clock work, if there is any. Harrison will probably get more total touches and has a great deal more big play potential.