Bat Hits - Tuesday, August 25th 2009

These are just some quick thoughts on various sports subjects. Sometimes there's links, sometime's there's not. Deal with it people. Lots of fantasy related stuff as normal but we'll bounce around sometimes. Hey, they're bat hits, not full-blow McClainiums.

• DeAngelo Williams is climbing. At this point it looks like even if Jonathan Stewart plays, he'll just be the #2 guy and the handcuff. Sure he'll probably get more than 100 carries but the Panthers are gonna run it a ton. I'd elevate Williams to the 2nd Tier of running backs right now. Which means I'd have no problem taking him #2 overall (behind AP) in standard leagues.
• Chad Ochocinco wants to be a boxer now. I wish we could just stop paying attention but this might actually be good. The opposing boxer might actually be able to shut him up. Of course if Ohco stinks out loud again this year I'm not sure that any non-Bengals fan will give a shit.
• Don't the Yankees look kind of brilliant now for not trading for Santana? Phil Hughes has solidified the bullpen allowing Joba to stay in the rotation with a sense of security. Melky Cabrera has been a solid role player this year. Robinson Cano has had a Renaissance and looks like the borderline All-Star he did 2 seasons ago. Meanwhile Santana is headed for surgery.
  
• The Phillies look just as brilliant for trading Cliff Lee instead of Roy Halladay. Halladay got rocked last night (just ask my Yahoo fantasy team) and Cliff Lee has been basically unhittable. Not to mention Cliff Lee will cost $7 million less next season. That's a lot of money for the Phillies. That's basically enough for the other back of the rotation starter they need, or some bullpen help.
• Got a bad feeling about Brandon Inge. The situation with his knee just seems to be getting worse. Beside, you can replace the production he's given you since the All-Star break with almost any scrub catcher off of the wire in most leagues.
• I don't know if I'm keeping Johan Santana in any league this year. Maybe in a deep dynasty league, but be very, very afraid.
  
• Glenn Coffee is going to be the hot rookie name real soon. He might be a sneaky pickup for Frank Gore owners. Not only will he be the handcuff but he might be useful enough to start with Gore as a bye-week fill in when the matchup is right.
• Felix Jones and Leon Washington are probably going to be regular flex plays this season. Ironically, I don't think either one of them is actually the handcuff to have on that team.
  
• Watch out for Greg Jones, Touchdown Vulture in Jacksonville.
• Again, don't even mess with a New England running back except in deep leagues. Kevin Faulk is draftable in most PPR leagues as a RB3/RB4.
• Seattle looks like a mess too. The scary part is they are going to run the ball a lot. But they now have one over-the-hill running back and one running back who lacks NFL talent. Remember the name Justin Forsett. But if Walter Jones were to miss the season I would avoid all Seattle running backs in all but the deepest of leagues.
• Most NFL teams have something to offer fantasy owners. The Cleveland Browns might be the exception. There will be some IDP value on their defense, but their offense is downright doo-doo. It's kind of sad. They should have an above-average offensive line and Braylon Edwards has elite talent. But neither QB looks ready to do anything and their RB situation makes Seattle's look organized.
• You might want to temper your expectations for Drew Brees just a touch. Don't get me wrong, I love me the Drew Brees but he just lost his Pro Bowl left tackle to surgery for the dreaded sports hernia. He could miss the first month of the season. Brees is still in that elite tier, but this is just one more reason to avoid over-drafting a QB this year.
• I'd continue to avoid T.O. like the Paris Hilton Parasite. He's already got a nagging injury AKA his built-in excuse should something go wrong. If that Bills' offensive line doesn't hold together, Buffalo might get to see the real T.O. earlier than scheduled.
• Watch out for the injury to Nate Washington. He was running red-hot all camp and pre-season and now he's out until Week 1 at the earliest. Gauge the seriousness of the injury. If it looks like their just being cautious try to scoop him up in the draft a round or two later than you could've done recently.
• Grab Eddie Royal in all formats. Avoid Brandon Marshall in all formats. Keep an eye on Jabar Gaffney too. It's hard to get excited about Denver's passing game without Cutler or Marshall but their defense is so reprehensible that they'll be forced to pass constantly. This could also increase Knowshon Moreno's value in PPR leagues. Ditto Tony Scheffler who's value should rise as Marshall's falls.

On some other whatnot, I caught Inglorious Basterds on Sunday. Theater was pretty packed and it was a good crowd. There was quite a bit of laughter at times and applause at the end. I enjoyed the movie very much and thought that it was very well made. But be aware going in, not much of the movie is in English. So bring your reading glasses, old heads. Tarantino fans will love and it's a very deep film with a little something for everybody. Not a perfect film but more than entertaining and far better than 95% of the other crap shoved into theaters with huge marketing blitzes. I recommend going to see it. Don't bring your kids and know that it's about two and a half hours long. I think you could actually bring a date to this though. Might be a good 2nd date. Because you never do dinner and movie as a first date. Seriously, you won't be able to look anymore boring and vanilla than that. Unless the lady suggests it. Then it's on you to decide if you like vanilla.

Late.

Fantasy Football Preview 2009 - Auction Draft Strategy

Auction drafts are becoming the new "hot" format in fantasy football. For those of you who've never done an auction draft it's just like it sounds. Everybody (in a non-keeper league) starts with the same amount of money and same number of roster spots to fill. Each team takes turns nominating players to bid on and you can bid on whoever you have money/roster spots for. All of the majors (ESPN, FOX, CBS, Yahoo) offer free mock draft services now. I recommend doing a couple before you do your cash league auction draft. Even if you've done auctions before, it never hurts to do a mock.

So here are a few tips that I've picked up over the years regarding mock drafts.

• Early in the draft, do not nominate players you want. Make a list up of players you don't want on your team and place them up for bid. This will deplete the amount of cash other teams have available to bid against you while preserving the players you want to bid on. This becomes more difficult to do later in the draft but early on it will work like a charm.
  
• In the middle of an auction draft don't be afraid to throw the top ranked kicker or team defense out there for bidding. By doing this you're either going to get the top ranked kicker or team defense for $1 or you're going to force another team to spend more than $1 on a kicker or team defense. Don't be that guy. The only exception is in leagues where team defense score a lot of points and include team special teams.
  
• You have a budget, don't be afraid to spend it. In an auction draft you can actually go into the draft with a lineup in mind because you can target specific players much easier than in a snake draft. There's a lot of cheat sheets out there with auction draft money values for each player. Look at your roster and the projected cost for players you want. You should be able to land at least 75% of your targets if you plan correctly.
• It's not always the best idea to wait. One auction draft strategy is to avoid spending much money until most of the other teams have already spent a bunch. By doing this you will end up with more depth than anybody else, but more than likely you will have one of the weaker starting lineups. Pay for your starters and find value buys to fill out your bench.
• Value is a variable thing as the draft proceeds. How much value a player has to you will depend on your team needs, your remaining budget and how far below your predicted value you can get a player for. Sometimes you should take a player you're not wild about if he fills a need for you and your getting a great deal on him. If you're getting a $12 RB for $3 and you don't have any RB depth you need to do that. He'll give you depth and provide some upside for a possible later trade.
• You need to know more about the other owners during an auction draft than a snake draft. Knowing their favorite players, favorite teams and fantasy football history is a big plus. If you know your buddy wants Adrian Peterson no matter what, don't be afraid to bid him up. Odds are you can go at least $10 over your projected price and your buddy will go higher.
  
• Pay close attention to the RB's who REALLY require handcuffs. If an owner spends $32 on Brian Westbrook early, he NEEDS to get LeSean McCoy. So don't be afraid to bid him up. The other owner is basically forced to keep going. Should you actually win McCoy you're going to have a ton of leverage on the Westbrook owner in a trade. If you need a handcuff either try to wait until teams have less money at the end of the draft or nominate the player yourself with a substantial opening bid. This will forces owners to make an immediate decision about how far they are willing to go when trying to bid you up.
• One newer strategy I've been working on is basically a variant on a re-raise in poker. In auction drafts, situations often occur when multiple owners bid up a player one dollar at a time. This makes it difficult to tell which owners are genuinely interested and which owners are just bidding the price up. If a player you want is in such a situation, try a re-raise. For instance say you want this player who is projected to go for $20. Somebody else nominates him for $1 and the bidding begins. Three or four different owners start bidding one dollar at a time and pretty soon it's at $10. In a re-raise, what you do here is raise it to somewhere around $15-$17 dollars. By doing this you're either going to get the player you want for less value or you're going to find out what owners are really interested. Sometimes other owners who actually want this player will "fold" because they're afraid you will "raise the pot too much". Not the best analogy in the world but you should be able to get the picture.
• One note about auction drafts in keeper leagues. Do as much research as you can by talking to other owners in order to try to figure out who they are keeping. This will allow you to plan your keepers better because you should have an idea of what players will be available in the draft .Who you keep should be based on what is available and how much your keepers will cost you. For instance, if you can keep Steve Slaton for $5 or Adrian Peterson for $58, which one do you think will give you more value? It's Slaton, and it's not close. Also, don't be afraid to trade keepers if you have guys you don't want to keep but you feel are too valuable to just throw back.
  

The Obligatory Brett Favre Mention

Yup, Brett Favre is back. He officially signed with the Vikings today. Contract is said to be worth between $10-$12 million. Not bad for one year for an old guy. What does this really mean? People far more "qualified" then me are going kill a couple of virtual forests with all of their words on this subject. So we'll just take a quick peek at the actual implications and the fantasy implications

IN REALITY
Does this really change how you view the Vikings? Is Favre really known for his game management? The Vikings don't have any need to throw the ball all over. They just need to keep defenses honest to give AP and even Chester Taylor room to operate. If anything, Favre is turnover-prone, period. He has been for years, and why would that change?

Favre himself has questioned his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. How should that inspire confidence in anybody else? The Vikings will need Favre the most in November, December and hopefully January. We all know that Favre was hurt last season but he still completely self-destructed. You just get the feeling that he didn't want to go out like that. Who would? But will his hubris come back to haunt him and the Vikings. This season is now all about Brett Favre. Again. Is that really what the Vikings need?

At the end of the day, the Vikings are the favorite in the NFC North. They were before they signed Favre. They're the defending division champs. They won the division last year with Gus Frerotte and Tavaris Jackson. Why shouldn't they win it again? The Lions aren't a threat at this point. The Packers have a done of problems with their conversion to a 3-4 defense. The Bears have questions at every position except QB, RB and LB. The Vikings are pretty solid as a team and should be the favorite.

IN FANTASY
Visanthe Shiancoe just took a bump up. He was a borderline top-10 TE and he probably just moved into top-8 territory. Favre loves him the TE and Shiancoe looked great so far in the pre-season. Plus the Vikings have a good o-line so Shiancoe won't be asked to block more than necessary.

Bernard Berrian also should be happy. I don't know if this will necessarily increase his catches or targets but his already stellar YPC should improve as should his TD number. Leagues that award bonuses for 50+ yard TD's should take notice. Berrian is still really a WR3 but he could be a nice WR2 when the matchup is right.

Percy Harvin has already seen his fantasy stock soar. Any leagues that count return yards and scores should bump Harvin way up their boards. As the Vikings try to work Favre in and keep him fresh you could concievealby see Harvin in the backfield both as a rusher and as a "Wildcat" QB with Tavaris Jackson split out wide. Favre probably doesn't effect his value a ton but if Harvin is on the field as a third WR I have more faith in Favre finding him as the 3rd or 4th read in a play than I did in Jackson or Rosenfels.

Brett Favre himself probably won't find his way onto many of my fantasy teams. His main value will be that he's Brett Favre. Somebody will blow a mid-round pick to draft him as their QB1. That will allow a better QB to drop lower than he should, and you should be ready to take advantage. As for Favre, he's a decent matchup play and just an average QB2. There is a chance he starts out hot. If you have him and he does start hot, SELL HIGH. As soon as he strings two good starts together, move him. Look at how he finished last season. Is there really a reason to think that this year will be any different?

If Sidney Rice or Bobby Wade steps up and takes control as the second WR, they may end up having more value with Favre than they would've otherwise had. That still doesn't make them draftable in 10 team leagues. But in 12-team leagues or larger or even 10-team PPR leagues with deep benches they might be worth a late-round flier.

Fantasy Football 2009 Preview - Team RB Capsules (Part 2)

Here's PART 2 of our Team RB Capsules. These are snapshots of each teams' RB situation designed to help you plan for your fantasy football draft this year. As always feedback is welcome. Click here for PART 1.

-It really could end up being a mess in Seattle. The good news is new coach Jim Mora Jr. likes to run the football. And if Walter Jones is fairly healthy the Seahawks should have a decent line. The real question is who is going to get the football? This looks like a really murky timeshare. Right now it looks like Julius Jones will start and TJ Duckett will get the short yardage and goal line carries. The listed 3rd string RB right now is Justin Forsett who some will remember as a pre-season darling for the Colts last year. So he does have some ability, file that away for the inevitable Julius Jones injury. Right now I really wouldn't draft any of these backs. Duckett will have more value in a TD only league, Jones will have slightly more value (than the usual no value) in a PPR league. I would draft quite a few #2 RB's before I would take a flier on these guys.

-Yet another murky situation lurks in Kansas City. The only good news is the Chiefs should be pretty lousy. Their defense will be sub-par yet again and they don't have much on offense outside of Dwayne Bowe. So you can just temper your expectations for Chiefs' RB's. That being said, which one do you want, Jamaal Charles or Larry Johnson? In a PPR it's Charles, in a TD-only league it's Johnson. Unfortunately, that's about as cut and dry as it gets. Best guess? This is about a 50-50 timeshare. Johnson will get the goal line looks and 4th quarter carries if the Chiefs somehow have a lead. When the Chiefs are trailing you will see a lot of Charles on the field because of his ability to catch the ball. Charles will probably be more consistent week-to-week but Johnson could have the occasional 2-TD game. Should Johnson get hurt, Charles might get a big bump up though.

-Miami might not be as clear a situation as you would think. Instinctively you would think that Ronnie Brown should be in line for a good season. Not to say he isn't. But is he a rock-sold #2 fantasy RB? Maybe. Good news, he is another year removed from the ACL tear, the Dolphins have a good run-blocking line and they will be a run first team. Bad news, Ricky Williams is still around and will get carries (just not enough to be anything more than a handcuff in all but very deep leagues), a 3rd RB (Patrick Cobbs) will see some time on the field on passing downs and Ronnie Brown will no longer be the "QB" in Miami's Wildcat formation. Ronnie Brown's total touch downs for the last 4 seasons? 5,5,5 and 10 last year. But subtract that first game against New England where the Patriots got blindsided when the Dolphins debuted the Wildcat. That's 4 TD's off. So that's only 6 TD's the rest of the year. Brown looks like a matchups play only unless he is getting 80%+ of the carries.

-Does anybody not love Matt Forte? If not you should. He's probably the #1 pick in a PPR league this year. Seriously. The Bears are going to run the football a ton. They might not pass that effectively but Cutler will throw downfield enough to open things up for Forte more than last year. The surprising note here? Kevin Jones will have value this year. He will be one of the 10 most important handcuffs and he will actually end up with a bit of value on his own, slightly more in a PPR. In short, if you draft Forte you're drafting Jones. If you don't have Forte, Jones makes for an interesting late round flier, for his upside in the case of a Forte injury and for his trade value to the Forte owner in your league.

-The Lions RB situation has been one of the most low-key in the league. And this will work out for you. Kevin Smith has absolutely crazy upside, and a RB job all to himself. Repeat, this DOES NOT look like a timeshare. Maurice Morris will see some 3rd down work and give Smith the occasional breather, but that's about it. The only downside Smith has is the Lions are still the Lions and their defense should be terrible. This might limit Smith's carries somewhat but he's very effective at catching the ball so he should be on the field, regardless. Smith is a rock-solid 2nd round pick and a low end RB1 who you might be able to steal in Round 3 or 4.

-Mark Sanchez is the big story for the New York Jets right now. They have talent at RB, but that's not the story. Thomas Jones is turning 31, wants a new deal and has been the subject of trade rumors. Leon Washington is a dynamic player who wants to be paid like a starting RB. Shonn Greene is the rookie RB the Jets moved up in the draft for. Which RB do you want? It probably depends on your league. If you league is a PPR and/or counts return yards, Washington is probably your guy to target, especially considering how much later you can get him compared to Thomas Jones. In a a keeper league Shonn Greene needs to be on your radar because he will be the Jets' starting RB sooner than later. In a TD-only league I still think it's Jones. The good news is the Jets are going to run the ball. A lot. It's Coach Ryan's style, plus he's going to try to insulate Sanchez as much as possible. In other words, they're all going to have some value. Jones still probably has the most upside as he will start and see most of the goal line carries. The rumor de-jour has been that Greene might be the 4th quarter slash burn out the clock back. I'm not sure if I buy it yet, but Greene is a must-have handcuff for Jones owners. In a 10-team standard league I would avoid Jones until at least Round 4. Ideally he's your RB3 this year, but with high-end RB2 upside.

-What to do with the Cowboys? Rumors have been rampant about Jones, Barber and Choice. Let's make it easy. Marion Barber is a RB1 this year still. He will score, get carries and even catch the ball. Take him over Portis. If you pick at the end of the first round, you could do much, much worse than Barber. Felix Jones will have great value in any league that counts return yardage and/or is a PPR. He'll make an excellent bye-week fill-in and will be a matchups guy. Tashard Choice is the handcuff you need to have for Barber. Should something happen to Barber, Choice would become the starter with Jones staying in his complimentary role. This makes Choice a great upside/trade value guy to target late in your draft, especially in a larger league.

-Is this a bounce-back year for Ryan Grant? Let somebody else find out. The Packers can throw the hell out of the ball and there's no reason for them to throw less. Especially considering that they're having a rough transition to a 3-4 defense and will probably play from behind a lot more than they'll be playing with a lead. Grant just doesn't catch the ball enough and hasn't shown much breakaway ability in recent memory. DeShawn Wynn is getting a lot of ink about possibly being the backup or handcuff to Grant as opposed to Brandon Jackson but I don't know if it really matters. Should Grant go down or lose his job, it's pretty much a timeshare anyway. In most leagues, you just want the guy who will get the ball in the red zone and at the goal line. Grant actually posted better numbers than you would think last season but he just doesn't seem to be set up real well for success this season. Don't target his early but if you can draft him in Round 5 or later as a low end RB2 or ideally a high end RB3 he shouldn't hurt you and will offer some decent upside as a possible low-end RB1 if everything fell perfectly for him.

-Which Frank Gore are you going to get this year? You're going to get the one who touches to ball. A lot. Mike Singletary is going to run the rock a ton. Seriously, think about who the Niners are going to start at QB. If Gore stays healthy he should be a top-10 fantasy RB this year, no questions asked, top-5 in a PPR. Is rookie Glenn Coffee going to get some carries? Absolutely. Is that going to hurt Gore? Absolutely not. If anything hopefully a bit of a timeshare should help Gore stay fresh and avoid nagging injuries. But that does make Coffee a pretty important handcuff for Gore owners. It doesn't look like Coffee will have much value on his own, unless he ends up being the designated goal line back.

-The Raiders organization is a disaster. The good news is, the only thing they really can do is run the ball. Of course it's a messed up timeshare but were you really expecting something else? The guy who will score the most fantasy points (provided everybody is healthy) is Darren McFadden. He's worth a high pick in a keeper league. In most leagues he should be drafted as a high-end RB3 or low-end RB2. But there will probably be somebody in your league that takes McFadden in Round 2 or 3. That's a bit too high. Remember, the Raiders will run the ball a ton, but they will also be trailing in more games than they will be leading. So like McFadden, just don't take him as your RB1 right now. The guy who will see the second most touches should be Mike Bush. In fact, should the Raiders have a 4th quarter lead, it will probably be Bush or Fargas on the field. I think Fargas is really just a handcuff here, he would have some value should Bush or McFadden get hurt. And both of them do have a history of getting hurt. Should Bush be traded to a team where he could start, he could be an absolute monster.

-The Steelers are a team that likes to run the football. The question is, who is going to run it? Aren't most people just done with Willie Parker at this point? I know I am. The only problem is that Parker might actually make for a decent draft pick if you get him late. Should he start the year like gang-busters and stay healthy, Parker could be a rock-solid RB2. But I doubt it. He gets hurt, doesn't score TD's and doesn't catch the ball. So who else is there? Rashard Mendenhall should be the guy. But he's gotten hurt, and when he's been on the field, he really hasn't accomplished squat. Could Mwelde Moore have some value? It looks like it. Hell, Gary Russell was the TD guy last year, that's more that Willie Parker can say. Still, if you can get Parker in Round 7 or later it might end up being huge for you. Just make sure you handcuff him to Mendenhall and monitor how many looks Moore gets.

-You think you should love Matt Forte? Love Pierre Thomas. He will be the RB for the Saints. He will outscore Reggie Bush. Sure in a PPR league, Bush is going to have some value. But Thomas has always shown that he can be an outstanding RB whenever he's gotten the chance. And he's going to get many, many chances this year. Thomas could end up being a low-end RB1. Really. Round 2 is not too early to take him. I would avoid Bush in a non-PPR but I actually think that he's the handcuff for Thomas, not the other way around. Draft Pierre Thomas. That's all there is to it.

-Do you really want anything to do with Cedric Benson? The only good news is that he will remain the starting RB for the Bengals, because for them he's Nino and G-Money (all they got). Brian Leonard had some buzz coming out of Rutgers but was a bust when given the chance to start for an injured Steven Jackson. Factor in the Bengals' lousy defense and their ability to throw the ball and it just doesn't look like any Bengals RB will be in much of a position to succeed. Any starting RB has value but Benson probably has less value than any starting RB not named Julius Jones.

-Derrick Ward is the hot name right now at RB for the Bucs. And he's going to get his carries. But this has all the makings of a 50/50 timeshare. It looks like Ward will see the work on passing downs and Graham will get the goal line carries and they'll most likely split anything else. That makes them both lower-end RB3's and matchup starts. But should one of them get hurt, the other should really increase in value. They're not really true handcuffs, nor do I think you could start both of them at once in fantasy, unless the matchup was perfect. Throw in the Bucs questions at QB, WR and on D and think they're going to struggle to run the ball a lot. Graham might be the better value as he's listed as the starter, is the returning starter and is going several rounds later than Ward. Don't get caught up in Ward's stats from the last 2 seasons.

-Ray Rice will be that starting RB for the Ravens. Willis McGahee is his handcuff and will see some carries regardless. The big question here is what role LeRon McClain plays. It looks like he will spend the majority of his time at fullback. If this is true it's a pretty big bump in value for Rice and even McGahee. Coach Harbaugh will most likely ride the hot hand so if you want Rice I would handcuff him to McGahee. LeRon McClain is a risky draft pick, wait and see if any news on him comes out before wasting anything but a late-round pick on him.

-Jamal Lewis is still the starting RB for the Browns. How long that lasts, nobody knows. This looks like it will be a timeshare with Jerome Harrison from jump street. And don't discount Harrison. He's flashed some ability when given the ball. Mangini likes to run the ball and has no allegiance to either back. Look for Lewis to get the goal line carries and possibly the 4th quarter, run out the clock work, if there is any. Harrison will probably get more total touches and has a great deal more big play potential.

Fantasy Football 2009 Preview - Team RB Capsules (Part 1)

Here's PART 1 of our Team RB Capsules. These are snapshots of each teams' RB situation designed to help you plan for your fantasy football draft this year. As always feedback is welcome. PART 2 will be up shortly.

-It's a good idea to own both Titans backs. This is one of the few cases where your handcuff (LenDale White) is a productive player regardless. White and Johnson can easily be started together in fantasy when the match-ups are right. Should Johnson get injured White would be the starter but most likely would lose passing-downs work to another back. Still his value would increase with the Johnson injury, possibly into top-12 RB territory, easy.

-You don't want the starting RB for the Colts, you want "The Closer". Whichever back is going to get the ball in the second half is the back you want. Think Rhodes last year and Addai before that. That's going to be the RB who gets the most carries and probably overall touches. Because of the timeshare and their style it's not likely that the Colts will provide a top-15 RB this season. But it wouldn't surprise me if one of the backs gained the bigger piece of the timeshare and became very fantasy relevant in November/December.

-Not sure entirely what to make of the Cardinals mess at RB. What I do know is that Hightower is probably going to start. Beanie Wells is injury prone. Hightower proved to be a good goal line back last year. In other words, it's questionable how much value Beanie will have barring injury. To further muddy the waters, Hightower and Wells are similar, neither is going to be much of threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. So that means that there most likely will be a 3rd back involved (JJ Arrington last year) which will take carries from Hightower and Wells. I'd draft Hightower over wells (non-keeper) and avoid Arizona RB's until the later rounds unless you're desperate.

-Don't sleep on the Buffalo RB situation. Fred Jackson is going to start the first 3 games. And he's probably going to be pretty good. He's always gotten it done when given the chance. I've always been a Marshawn Lynch guy but I think this is a straight timeshare, maybe 60-40 in favor of Lynch but close. Lynch will probably get the goal line work but I think the Bills are going to pass a ton this year. Rumor has it they are going to use a no-huddle as a base offense. Jackson is a 100% must-have handcuff for Lynch owners and he will be productive in his own right. I would bump of the value of both Buffalo RB's slightly in a PPR league.

-Don't mess with New England RB's. If Sammy Morris is cut that would greatly improve Fred Taylor's value and probably Maroney too. But I'm done with Maroney. Plus Kevin Faulk is going to take away almost all of the passing downs work as well as a bunch of touches around the goal line and in the redzone. In a PPR league I would grab Faulk in the latter stages of the draft. There will be weeks when a New England RB goes off. You just have to guess the right week and the right RB.

-It's Knowshon Moreno time in Denver. They passed up filling a bunch of other glaring holes to draft Moreno in Denver. And he's going to get the rock. A lot. I don't even know if there's a clear-cut handcuff to have here. Buckhalter and Jordan might get some touches, but probably not enough to give them much value, unless one of them puts a stranglehold on the goal line back role. Take Knowshon high. In a 10-team (non-keeper, non-PPR) league whenever Pierre Thomas comes off of the board, it's time to take Knowshon. I can't see him lasting past the fourth round. And don't forget, Denver has one of the best o-lines in the league. Moreno has top-10 RB potential, right now.

-Definitely a mess at RB in Philly right now. I think you have to consider Westbrook in your draft (non-PPR) whenever LT comes off of the board. Probably early-to-mid 2nd round. If he's healthy he will again be a top-5 RB so there's value to be had here. In a PPR Westbrook is still a top-7 pick. Be warned, if you take Westbrook you've just committed to spending a 6th or 7th round pick on LeSean McCoy. And trust me, you need to do that. Not only is McCoy a handcuff with great upside but he should be in line for 10-12 touches a game, even with a healthy Westbrook. The only other back to look at is Leonard Weaver who could see some goal line and short-yardage carries.

-I loved Michael Turner last year. Got him between rounds 3-5 last year in almost every league I was in. Made a killing. But be aware, he was MUCH MUCH MUCH better at home in the dome. Go back and look at his home/road splits. But even with all of that he's a top-2 pick (non-PPR). But you need the Jerious Norwood. Despite all of the talk, odds are Norwood gets less than 10 touches per game. But if Turner were to go down..... Norwood could be a monster. Remember when Priest Holmes got hurt and Larry Johnson stepped in? Norwood isn't quite that good, but he could be a top-10 back in that scenario.

-Here's the deal with the Redskins. Draft Portis easily in the 2nd round. He and Marion Barber should probably go back-to-back in most drafts, they are very close in value. Again you need Ladell Betts if you have Portis but you should be able to get him pretty late. Portis should be awesome for the first part of the season, he always is. Let him go off for a couple of weeks and then seriously consider trading him. The last couple of seasons Portis has really worn down as the season has gone on. If your ballsy you could try to hold him till Week 10. Otherwise I would get out around Week 8, right before the bye. The Redskins last 3 games this year: vs Giants, vs Cowboys and @ Chargers. Sell high, sell early.

-I'm of the mind that it's right back to the way shit used to be in San Diego. I can't see Sproles getting more than some passing downs work and some returns. In a PPR or league that counts return yards he will have some value. LT owners really need to handcuff with Sproles but you should be able to do so in the latter rounds, maybe round 10 in a 10 team snake-draft. I'm expecting a bounce-back year from LT. The Chargers have a nice schedule, LT is healthy, Gates is healthy, the o-line is healthy, Merriman is healthy..... Get the picture? If you get LT in the 2nd round of your draft you are raping the competition. In a PPR league you need to take LT in the top-5. Trust me, LT ain't done yet.

-What to do with Steven Jackson? Limitless potential, horrible team. An injury risk yes, but he is a tough guy. But the Rams are TERRIBLE. With Donnie Avery out, the cupboard is bare at WR, the o-line is a mess and Bulger hasn't been good in almost 3 years. There might be a silver lining here though. Jackson is the reverse Portis. He may start slow or get banged up early. But there is now some young talent on the o-line and Spagnuolo is a good coach. By the end of the year this team might start to pull it together. Their last 3 games? vs Houston, @ Arizona, vs 49'ers. Doesn't look too bad. The crazy part here is there's not even really a handcuff for Jackson. If he goes down, that's it. Seriously.

-I view the Panthers just like the Titans. You need to handcuff Stewart to Williams, but Stewart will have his own value regardless. All signs point to a split of carries similar to last year. Williams will be good but won't score 20 TD's again. But 1800 total yards and 15 total TD's is not impossible, or even really far-fetched. You will have to draft Stewart earlier than you would like (rounds 5-6, 10 team, non-PPR) but you can start both of them when the matchup is right. Pay attention though, Carolina has a tough schedule this year. And don't underestimate the loss of Maake Kemoeatu. When he was out last year the Panther's D fell apart. If they struggle, that will really cut into the Panthers rushing attempts. After the first 3 weeks you should have a pretty clear idea of what they really are.

-The Giants. Brandon Jacobs. Rock solid 2nd round pick (non-PPR). Will score a ton of TD's, will probably clear 1000 yards. And will miss at least 2 games. It's just how it works. So you're going to have to take Ahmad Bradshaw earlier than you would like. Remember the value Derrick Ward has had in this backup role the last two years. Remember it because somebody else in your league will too. But man up and draft Bradshaw because he is a required handcuff and will have some other value, especially in a PPR. But be aware, when Jacobs goes down Bradshaw will see his role expanded but it will still be a split, probably with Danny Ware or Andre Brown. Those two might be worth a late flier in a 14-team (or larger) league.

-I love me some Steve Slaton. He's PPR gold too. I have no problem taking Slaton anywhere from the 4th pick on. That Texans offense can really hum and Slaton will get the ball through the air quite a bit. And this is one of the few situations in the league that really isn't a timeshare. Neither Chris Brown or Ryan Moats is any kind of threat to steal carries. Neither one is even a handcuff really. Look for the Texans to pickup a back before the season starts.

-What do you think of Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD)? I think he's a damn good running back. Has been since his rookie year. But I don't think he's going to get the ball 400 times just because Fred Taylor is gone. In fact I don't think he gets 300 carries. Call it 250-275 carries and 50-70 catches. That can be a top-5 RB territory. There is still going to be some kind of split going on here. I like Greg Jones to get some work, he's always be a Del Rio favorite and he's very comfortable in short-yardage situations. Chauncey Washington is listed at #2 on the depth chart and Rashad Jennings is everybody's sleeper. One of those two will see some touches. If MJD were to go down I would expect all three backs to pitch in, with Jones having the most value. Feel free to take MJD from pick #3 onward, and probably #1 overall in a PPR league.

-Do you prefer AP or All-Day? Either way, Peterson is the man. The man you take first overall in your draft and be very happy about it. He's that guy. I would project him to pretty much duplicate last year's stats, with a couple more TD's tossed in. Chester Taylor is back as one of the most needed handcuffs in the game. And he will have some value by himself, especially in a PPR league. As always the Vikings will try to monitor AP's carries to keep him fresh so look for Taylor to consistently see 10-15 touches per game.