- Everybody loves Jimmy
- Somethings just leave a man speechless
- PacMan is beyond delusional, you can't fight Disney
- Hugh Hefner should be every man's idol (SFW)
- Iron Man 2 casting news (it's good)
- Didn't he just deny this last week?
- Fun "alternative" to gambling or fantasy football (really more of a combo of the two)
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Bat Hits for Thursday, January 8, 2009
NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks
Before we get into this weeks picks let's look at how I did last week:
AFC
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Tennessee Titans
I'm making this pick assuming Ed Reed plays. If Ed Reed were to miss the game I may be inclined to lean towards the Titans, depending on how the line moves. At the end of the day let's just assume that both teams have moderate success running the ball. Give em each a TD and two red-zone possessions that Bironas and Stover convert. A nice boring 13-13 ball game. This game is going to come down to (1) Which team turns the ball over more (2) Which team converts its' red-zone possessions into TD's instead of field goals. Other than LenDale White, most of the Titans touchdowns have been of the 25+ yard variety. Only 1 or 2 of Justin Gage's touchdowns came on red-zone possessions and any fantasy football owner can tell you no other receivers or tight ends really scored touchdowns for the Titans. Then you've got Derrick Mason (playing lights out and hurt) back in Tennessee against his former team and Todd Heap who's actually looked pretty decent the past month or so. Don't forget that Flacco can tuck the ball and go a little bit too. I'll take the Ravens and points in that case. Tell you this though, if either team scores a special teams or defensive touchdown they win, game over. Also TAKE THE UNDER (35 POINTS) BEFORE THE LINE MOVES DOWN!
San Diego Chargers (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Quick disclaimer here, I'm pretty sure the Steelers win this game. But 6 points is just too many points to give right now with the firepower the Chargers have shown on offense. Not having LT will hurt put the Chargers have a couple of backs beside Sproles and I think they'll be able to at least put together a combined 100 yards. Considering the Steelers only give up 80 yards rushing a game, that ain't bad. I could see Sproles popping a return for big yardage as well. The Steelers secondary is good but not great. The Steelers pass rush has usually kept the secondary from having to cover for long periods of time. If the Chargers can slow down the rush of James Harrison and company Jackson, Gates and Chambers should be able to create separation or find spots to get open down-field. On the other side of the ball look at "Fast" Willie Parker. If the he shows up and gets his 100+ yards on 20+ carries I'm not sure that the Chargers can win unless the Steelers just self-destruct in the red-zone. The Chargers boast one of the worst statistical pass defenses in the league. Look for Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to go to down. Don't sleep on Heath Miller either, the Chargers are just about the WORST team in the league when it comes to covering the tight end. This just feels like a 24-20 victory by the Steelers. If you're going to make a bet this way get it in now, as more people take the Chargers and the points the line will most likely go down to where it should be around 3.5. While we're at it, go ahead and take the OVER at 38 points. If it gets up to about 41 or above you're on your own.
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ New York Giants
If you don't read Bill Simmons over on ESPN you should. He's got some great rules when it comes to betting in the playoffs. He's just one of the many, many people that would tell you that you're smoked picking against the world champs at home, coming off of a bye week. Here's my one stat I'll trot out today. Counting their game on November 20, 2005 the Giants and the Eagles have played 9 times. Why is November 20, 2005 significant? Because that's the last time the favorite covered. Seriously. In fact, in those nine games the favored team has only managed to win the game 3 times. I personally think this game should be Giants (-1.5) so I'm going against myself not to take the Eagles and the points. These are two teams that are built more similar than you would imagine. Both teams can rush the passer well, create turnovers and cover on the back end. I'd rather have the Giants defensive ends but other than that I'd actually give a slight edge to the Eagles at every other defensive position except I'd call middle linebacker a draw between Bradley and Pierce. On offense both teams have nice offensive lines with a slight edge to the Giants. The Giants also have the edge at running back but you'd be fool to discount Brian Westbrook or even Correll Buckhalter. Give me McNabb over Eli and the Eagles WR's over those of the Giants. Call Boss vs. Celek a wash. The Eagles also get the edge in special teams, both on coverage and returns. By my calculations that means I like the Eagles more than the Giants. But the Giants have home-field and the world champion swagger. Look for this one to be a more traditional NFC East game with lots of hitting and defense, but somehow lots of scoring at the same time. I'll take the OVER at 40 but I would hesitate to go much over 45.
Carolina Panthers (-10) vs Arizona Cardinals
Look at me picking a home team to cover. Truth be told, if I thought that Boldin was going to play at anything close to 100% I'd be taking the Cardinals. Again, not to win, but starting the game with 10 points is big. The Panthers are actually only 1-3 ATS (Against The Spread) at home this year, with one of those spread losses coming against the Cardinals. Arizona actually led for quite a while in that game and almost blew it at the end. The Cardinals did an excellent job against Michael Turner last week. But everybody forgets that Turner never really did a ton outside of a dome this year. He played (I believe) 11 of 16 games in a dome so you really didn't notice it that much. Stopping Williams and Stewart in Carolina is a whole different ballgame. Between those two and Steve Smith I think the Panthers have enough to win the game right there. For the Cardinals to win this game, Edge is going to have to turn back the clock. And keep spinning it backwards for a few years. If the Cardinals come out with a run/pass ratio of 30/70 or worse they're done. Even if the run game is ineffective they have to stick with it, especially without Boldin. James has to break at least 1 long TD run. The lack of a real tight end could also really bite the Cardinals in the ass this game. Give Arizona the special teams edge but it's just not enough. The Cardinals will make a game of this but if Warner does his thing and turns the ball over while trying to lead a comeback, the Panthers will cover. This is the hardest game to call as far as the under/over goes but if you stuck the proverbial gun to my head I'd take the UNDER at 49.
Betting lines courtesy of Bodog and are accurate as of Thursday, January 8, 2009 at 11 AM.
- Cardinals (+2.5) vs Falcons - WINNER
- Eagles (-3) @ Vikings - WINNER
- Colts (-1) @ Chargers - LOSER
- Ravens (-3) @ Dolphins - WINNER
AFC
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Tennessee Titans
I'm making this pick assuming Ed Reed plays. If Ed Reed were to miss the game I may be inclined to lean towards the Titans, depending on how the line moves. At the end of the day let's just assume that both teams have moderate success running the ball. Give em each a TD and two red-zone possessions that Bironas and Stover convert. A nice boring 13-13 ball game. This game is going to come down to (1) Which team turns the ball over more (2) Which team converts its' red-zone possessions into TD's instead of field goals. Other than LenDale White, most of the Titans touchdowns have been of the 25+ yard variety. Only 1 or 2 of Justin Gage's touchdowns came on red-zone possessions and any fantasy football owner can tell you no other receivers or tight ends really scored touchdowns for the Titans. Then you've got Derrick Mason (playing lights out and hurt) back in Tennessee against his former team and Todd Heap who's actually looked pretty decent the past month or so. Don't forget that Flacco can tuck the ball and go a little bit too. I'll take the Ravens and points in that case. Tell you this though, if either team scores a special teams or defensive touchdown they win, game over. Also TAKE THE UNDER (35 POINTS) BEFORE THE LINE MOVES DOWN!
San Diego Chargers (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Quick disclaimer here, I'm pretty sure the Steelers win this game. But 6 points is just too many points to give right now with the firepower the Chargers have shown on offense. Not having LT will hurt put the Chargers have a couple of backs beside Sproles and I think they'll be able to at least put together a combined 100 yards. Considering the Steelers only give up 80 yards rushing a game, that ain't bad. I could see Sproles popping a return for big yardage as well. The Steelers secondary is good but not great. The Steelers pass rush has usually kept the secondary from having to cover for long periods of time. If the Chargers can slow down the rush of James Harrison and company Jackson, Gates and Chambers should be able to create separation or find spots to get open down-field. On the other side of the ball look at "Fast" Willie Parker. If the he shows up and gets his 100+ yards on 20+ carries I'm not sure that the Chargers can win unless the Steelers just self-destruct in the red-zone. The Chargers boast one of the worst statistical pass defenses in the league. Look for Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to go to down. Don't sleep on Heath Miller either, the Chargers are just about the WORST team in the league when it comes to covering the tight end. This just feels like a 24-20 victory by the Steelers. If you're going to make a bet this way get it in now, as more people take the Chargers and the points the line will most likely go down to where it should be around 3.5. While we're at it, go ahead and take the OVER at 38 points. If it gets up to about 41 or above you're on your own.
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ New York Giants
If you don't read Bill Simmons over on ESPN you should. He's got some great rules when it comes to betting in the playoffs. He's just one of the many, many people that would tell you that you're smoked picking against the world champs at home, coming off of a bye week. Here's my one stat I'll trot out today. Counting their game on November 20, 2005 the Giants and the Eagles have played 9 times. Why is November 20, 2005 significant? Because that's the last time the favorite covered. Seriously. In fact, in those nine games the favored team has only managed to win the game 3 times. I personally think this game should be Giants (-1.5) so I'm going against myself not to take the Eagles and the points. These are two teams that are built more similar than you would imagine. Both teams can rush the passer well, create turnovers and cover on the back end. I'd rather have the Giants defensive ends but other than that I'd actually give a slight edge to the Eagles at every other defensive position except I'd call middle linebacker a draw between Bradley and Pierce. On offense both teams have nice offensive lines with a slight edge to the Giants. The Giants also have the edge at running back but you'd be fool to discount Brian Westbrook or even Correll Buckhalter. Give me McNabb over Eli and the Eagles WR's over those of the Giants. Call Boss vs. Celek a wash. The Eagles also get the edge in special teams, both on coverage and returns. By my calculations that means I like the Eagles more than the Giants. But the Giants have home-field and the world champion swagger. Look for this one to be a more traditional NFC East game with lots of hitting and defense, but somehow lots of scoring at the same time. I'll take the OVER at 40 but I would hesitate to go much over 45.
Carolina Panthers (-10) vs Arizona Cardinals
Look at me picking a home team to cover. Truth be told, if I thought that Boldin was going to play at anything close to 100% I'd be taking the Cardinals. Again, not to win, but starting the game with 10 points is big. The Panthers are actually only 1-3 ATS (Against The Spread) at home this year, with one of those spread losses coming against the Cardinals. Arizona actually led for quite a while in that game and almost blew it at the end. The Cardinals did an excellent job against Michael Turner last week. But everybody forgets that Turner never really did a ton outside of a dome this year. He played (I believe) 11 of 16 games in a dome so you really didn't notice it that much. Stopping Williams and Stewart in Carolina is a whole different ballgame. Between those two and Steve Smith I think the Panthers have enough to win the game right there. For the Cardinals to win this game, Edge is going to have to turn back the clock. And keep spinning it backwards for a few years. If the Cardinals come out with a run/pass ratio of 30/70 or worse they're done. Even if the run game is ineffective they have to stick with it, especially without Boldin. James has to break at least 1 long TD run. The lack of a real tight end could also really bite the Cardinals in the ass this game. Give Arizona the special teams edge but it's just not enough. The Cardinals will make a game of this but if Warner does his thing and turns the ball over while trying to lead a comeback, the Panthers will cover. This is the hardest game to call as far as the under/over goes but if you stuck the proverbial gun to my head I'd take the UNDER at 49.
Betting lines courtesy of Bodog and are accurate as of Thursday, January 8, 2009 at 11 AM.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Early NFL Playoff Picks
NFC
Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
The Cardinals have been tough all year at home (6-2 SU) and seemed to turn a corner this Sunday, at least offensively. The Falcons should be able to run the ball against the Cardinals but Michael Turner has not been a Superman away from home or outside in general. The Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and it will be up to Matt Ryan to lead the Falcons to a road victory in the playoffs. Chalk this one up as a learning experience for the young Falcons who should be a force in the NFC South for the next decade with Matt Ryan at the helm. This Falcons team reminds me a lot of the Philadelphia Eagles team in 2000 with a young QB (McNabb) and relatively unknown coach (Reid).
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
This probably seems like the Captain Obvious pick after the Eagles destroyed the Cowboys but never write off a team with a superstar the caliber of Adrian Peterson. Unfortuneately the Eagles are well-coached enough to force the Vikings Tavaris Jackson to do enough to win the game. Does anybody really think Jackson is going to come through with Jim Johnson blitzing him damn near every play? The Vikings run defense is stout still but Pat Williams will not be 100% for this game and Andy Reid and the Eagles aren't going to primarily run the ball anyway. Unless Adrian Peterson can go for 200 yards and at least 2 scores I cannot see the Vikings pulling this one off, even at home, not matter how well Brad Childress knows Andy Reid and McNabb.
AFC
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at San Diego Chargers
Does anybody really want to bet against Peyton Manning right now? The Chargers may have shredded the Broncos defense but who hasn't? The Broncos defense might just be as bad as the Lions and that's saying something. San Diego has had a ton of problems in their secondary and their pass rush is severely weakened without Merriman. Plus the Colts are probably going to be as healthy for this game as they've been for any game all year. Do you really think a Norv Turner team is gonna get up for this game? Don't look now but LT is banged up again going into the playoffs. It's just too easy to see the Chargers sticking with LT at far less than 100% while their most dynamic weapon (Sproles) watches from the sideline.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Miami Dolphins
This is the closest game to pick this week. Miami turned the ball over fewer than any team in NFL history this year. The Ravens win most of their games by converting turnovers forced by their defense. How would the Ravens fare if their defense cannot get the ball or field position for the offense? What about Derek Mason's shoulder? In the end you have to think that both Flacco and Pennington take care of the ball. So that basically leaves the question of who can run the ball better and who can stop the run better. I believe that the answer to both questions is the Ravens. Giving the 3 points is pushing it a bit here because this could very easily be a 1 or 2 point game. These teams are very evenly matched. That Ravens D is a veteran unit with a lot of history together and Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are the unquestioned leaders of that team. I'm not sure that the Dolphins have a locker dynamic similar to that and the Dolphins are much younger as a team overall. Watch out for a Willis McGahee sighting, seemingly out of nowhere.
Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
The Cardinals have been tough all year at home (6-2 SU) and seemed to turn a corner this Sunday, at least offensively. The Falcons should be able to run the ball against the Cardinals but Michael Turner has not been a Superman away from home or outside in general. The Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and it will be up to Matt Ryan to lead the Falcons to a road victory in the playoffs. Chalk this one up as a learning experience for the young Falcons who should be a force in the NFC South for the next decade with Matt Ryan at the helm. This Falcons team reminds me a lot of the Philadelphia Eagles team in 2000 with a young QB (McNabb) and relatively unknown coach (Reid).
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
This probably seems like the Captain Obvious pick after the Eagles destroyed the Cowboys but never write off a team with a superstar the caliber of Adrian Peterson. Unfortuneately the Eagles are well-coached enough to force the Vikings Tavaris Jackson to do enough to win the game. Does anybody really think Jackson is going to come through with Jim Johnson blitzing him damn near every play? The Vikings run defense is stout still but Pat Williams will not be 100% for this game and Andy Reid and the Eagles aren't going to primarily run the ball anyway. Unless Adrian Peterson can go for 200 yards and at least 2 scores I cannot see the Vikings pulling this one off, even at home, not matter how well Brad Childress knows Andy Reid and McNabb.
AFC
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at San Diego Chargers
Does anybody really want to bet against Peyton Manning right now? The Chargers may have shredded the Broncos defense but who hasn't? The Broncos defense might just be as bad as the Lions and that's saying something. San Diego has had a ton of problems in their secondary and their pass rush is severely weakened without Merriman. Plus the Colts are probably going to be as healthy for this game as they've been for any game all year. Do you really think a Norv Turner team is gonna get up for this game? Don't look now but LT is banged up again going into the playoffs. It's just too easy to see the Chargers sticking with LT at far less than 100% while their most dynamic weapon (Sproles) watches from the sideline.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Miami Dolphins
This is the closest game to pick this week. Miami turned the ball over fewer than any team in NFL history this year. The Ravens win most of their games by converting turnovers forced by their defense. How would the Ravens fare if their defense cannot get the ball or field position for the offense? What about Derek Mason's shoulder? In the end you have to think that both Flacco and Pennington take care of the ball. So that basically leaves the question of who can run the ball better and who can stop the run better. I believe that the answer to both questions is the Ravens. Giving the 3 points is pushing it a bit here because this could very easily be a 1 or 2 point game. These teams are very evenly matched. That Ravens D is a veteran unit with a lot of history together and Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are the unquestioned leaders of that team. I'm not sure that the Dolphins have a locker dynamic similar to that and the Dolphins are much younger as a team overall. Watch out for a Willis McGahee sighting, seemingly out of nowhere.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Fantasy Football Update
Fox Sports Fantasy Football is now live. That means you can draft fantasy football teams now. Just remember, if you draft them, make sure you play them in September. Nobody likes dead teams. If you just want to practice drafting most sites now offer a "Mock Draft Lobby" where you draft but that's it.
Off to the track, lets hit them 'fectas!
Whurly.
Whurly = Worry + Early
Off to the track, lets hit them 'fectas!
Whurly.
Whurly = Worry + Early
The Belmont Stakes
I'm not a professional handicapper. And as a handicapper my area of expertise is NFL money lines, not the ponies. But it's the sport of kings and it's amazing what a $1 superfecta can win. Big Brown is the prohibitive favorite (2-5, bet $5 to win $2) but he has issues. Think Curt Shilling's bloody sock type of issues. So I'm gonna take a crack at my top 4. I don't ask for much but if I give out the winners and you rake in the dollars, buy a round for the bar. OK?
WIN
Denis of Cork (12-1)
PLACE
Big Brown (2-5)
SHOW
Icabad Crane (20-1)
4TH
Anak Nakal (40-1)
There you go. Win, eat, drink at be merry. Remember, Big Brown is sponsored by Hooters. I don't know if they have any specials if he wins, but bug your waitress anyway. Girls love difficult guys.
WIN
Denis of Cork (12-1)
PLACE
Big Brown (2-5)
SHOW
Icabad Crane (20-1)
4TH
Anak Nakal (40-1)
There you go. Win, eat, drink at be merry. Remember, Big Brown is sponsored by Hooters. I don't know if they have any specials if he wins, but bug your waitress anyway. Girls love difficult guys.
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