Saturday, February 28, 2009

NFL Free Agency - The Ongoing and The Aftermath

I'm sure everybody has read about the major free agent signings in the NFL. I'm just going to highlight some of my thoughts/ramblings/mutterings.

  • Matt Cassel to the Chiefs. If the Chiefs can upgrade their O-line in the draft the Chiefs could be in business. Yeah they have the Chargers in the division but you just don't know what you're going to get with them this year. The Raiders are still the Raiders and the Broncos do not have a lot of talent outside of a few guys on offense. Give Cassel Bowe and Gonzalez. Sit Larry Johnson down and get him focused somehow. Those are decent pieces. Sure they also need the o-line help but after that they just need a complementary RB and a decent second WR. The defense will be a work in progress but they've got some talent on that side of the ball. Everybody raved about the Chiefs draft last year (well immediately after the draft) and it will be up to those draftees to step it up in year two.
  • Fred Taylor to the Patriots. This will work. He's more talented than Sammy Morris and could shoulder the load in the 4th quarter still. And he signed for dirt cheap. This is why non-Patriots fans hate the Patriots. It's kinda like a backhanded-respect thing.
  • Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins. My buddy Cesar asked me last night "is Haynesworth really that good?" and I struggled to provide one answer. When properly motivated he's more or less un-blockable. Quite possible un-stoppable. But he hasn't played 16 games since his rookie season and nobody will ever forget this. (This is just going to be a series of "buts" please bear with me, it's Saturday and I drink on Fridays) But he just got PAID. In reality the contract looks to be worth about $48 million over 4 years. But almost all of that is guaranteed. So he needs to be motivated now by money he already has not by his desire for money. And does this sort of thing ever really work out for the Redskins? Shouldn't Haynesworth really be a Cowboy or a Raider? Not that it would work out any better, it would just be more entertaining. But the Titans defense was a completely different unit without him. And by completely different I mean not nearly as good. But maybe he will motivated by the haters. And we are haters. He played well enough last year that somebody felt he was worth all this money. Good for him. It's not his fault that teams tend to pay for past production as opposed to present and future production.
  • Kellen Winslow traded to the Bucs. Here's one of those trades that I think will help both teams. Winslow wants a new deal. Has for a while. The Bucs are incredibly flush with cap room and have to spend quite a bit of dough just to get to the cap floor. (Cap floor is the minimum amount an NFL team must spend on salary. The floor will dissappear when the cap does, allowing teams to spend as much or as little as the want on player salaries.) The Browns needed more picks to inject some youth after forfeiting most of their draft picks last year in trades for veteran players. Plus you just knew Mangini and Winslow were going to get along famously. And by famously I mean want to kill each other. In Tampa Winslow should get his money and will have a chance to be once of the new faces of the franchise. Sure he's an injury risk and he overrates himself but he's a player when healthy and properly motivated.
  • Lito Sheppard to the Jets. I think this is another good trade for both teams. The Eagles pick up a 5th rounder this year and a conditional pick next year which could be a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick. It's not quite as much as they were asking for last year but it's not bad considering everybody knew Sheppard was gone as soon as the Eagles re-signed Hanson for starter money. The Eagles already have 2 first round picks this year so it makes sense to defer the higher pick until next season anyway. The Jets really needed a good cover corner opposite Revis and Sheppard can be spectacular at times. Nice trade really for both sides.
  • Kerry Collins re-ups with the Titans. The only surprise here is that he signed before Warner did. The money seems about right but I'm not sold on Collins as the answer for the Titans at QB, even just for next season. I've seen too many of these older QBs pull it together for one season and then just not be able to sustain that success.
  • Maurice Morris to the Lions. All this tell us is (A) the Lions will not draft a running back on day one (B) Kevin Smith just tumbled about 10 spots in my fantasy RB rankings if this is any kind of a comittee situation, which I'm sure it is.
  • Stacy Andrews to the Eagles. I'm not sure what to make of this one. Andrews was a great prospect. I remember when the Bengals drafted him in the 4th round, he'd basically played a seaon or two of football and was raw as hell. But very talented athletically. And he's about 27 which makes him pretty young for an o-lineman. The question is, why did the Eagles sign him? I'm just assuming that his knee checked out well because Andrews tore his ACL and MCL back in December and just had the surgery to repair the injuries in early January. He was originally projected to be out until training camp but now claims he will be ready to go for mini-camps. I doubt it. Even if he wants to the team shouldn't let him. The other side of the coin here is that Stacy Andrews is the older brother of Shawn Andrews, All-Pro RG for the Eagles. Who missed training camp last year because of depression. And then missed all but 2 games of the season with a back injury. What effect did this have when the Eagles though about signing Andrews? More importantly, will it work? I don't think Stacy Andrews can really play LT which makes him the RT. Ditto Shawn Andrews who currently plays RG but was drafted to eventually play RT. Does this mean that the Eagles are bringing back Tra Thomas or drafting a LT in the first round? I think it actually might mean both.
  • Jeff Saturday re-signs with the Colts. A no-brainer for both sides. Saturday would not be nearly as effective in a different system and the Colts o-line looked terrible without him last season.
  • Jason Brown signs with the Rams. Brown was widely regarded as the best o-lineman available due to this age, skill set, experience and ability to play center or guard. What interests me were comments by his agent and another reported tidbit. His agent basically said that Brown wasn't interested in any tours or such, implying it was just about the money. Then the Rams came over the top and by far offered him the most money. And Brown went back to the Ravens (and possibly other teams) to try to get them to match the offer. When nobody would he took the Rams money. Does this sound like a guy who wants to be in St Louis? They've been terrible for the past two seasons but this is the NFL and everything can change quickly. I just can't see this ending well.
  • Jonathan Vilma re-signs with the Saints. Another no-brainer the Saints had to wait to re-sign Vilma until after free agency started to avoid having to give up a higher draft pick as a result of last years trade to acquire Vilma.
  • Bart Scott to the Jets. I've kinda turned around on this one. My first instinct was that linebackers leave the Ravens and never seem to play as well after. Adalius Thomas, Peter Boulware, Ed Hartwell, just to name a couple. All those guys actually got hurt soon after leaving the Ravens as well. To me that means that the Ravens are good at letting go of guys when their past their prime. But Scott is going to play for his d-coordinator from the Ravens Rex Ryan in the same defensive system. Instead of Ray Lewis he plays next to David Harris who is a very good young ILB. I would expect Scott to play at a high level for at least 2 more seasons for the Jets.
  • DeAngelo Hall re-ups with the Skins. Hall is a pretty good cover corner when properly motivated. I hope for his sake he gets it turned around and plays at a high level from here on out. But he seems like Haynesworth in that everybody is worried that he'll slack off when he gets paid. Fitting that the Redskins signed them both.
  • Brian Dawkins to the Broncos. Probably the biggest surprise, at least for me, in free agency thusfar. It was widely assumed that Dawkins would be back with the Eagles. He said it, the Eagles said it. Yet Dawkins signed a five year deal with Denver with $7.5 million guaranteed. It is believed that the Eagles were offering a 1-year $3 million dollar deal. Dawkins took a below-value deal last time around and wasn't about to do it again. It's hard to believe with all that cap room the Eagles lost their most beloved player over roughly $4 million dollars. I guess when you have 50,000+ people on your season ticket waiting list you can afford to just flip the finger to the fans once in a while.

Props to Scout.com for their Free Agency Tracker. I try to avoid linking to the Worldwide Leader all the time and none of the other major outlets had a good tracker that I could find. Although the blog coverage of free agency has been outstanding everywhere and it's really added a dimension as a fan. No more waiting for a new Sportscenter or breathlessly hitting the refresh button.

Durant leaves arena on crutches

For one of my fantasy basketball teams those are basically the five worst words I could imagine hearing. There are plenty of other words I wouldn't want to hear, but "Durant leaves arena on crutches" is devastating. He was the centerpiece of my team, the guy who was going to continue to score out of his mind throughout the fantasy playoffs. I shouldn't be surprised considering how many NBA stars have fallen this season but just when I thought I was out..... The crazy part is how I got Durant. Got him maybe 6 weeks or so ago for (drum roll please) Ginobili and Bynum. I can't tell you how good that deal was working out for me. The really bad news is that the Thunder are terrible and it might dawn on them that: No Durant = More Losses = More Ping Pong Balls = Higher Draft Position. Why would they hurry Durant back? I hope he's back for the fantasy playoffs but if it's a bad high ankle sprain..... Just so you don't think I'm an asshole who was lucky to have Durant anyway:

I'm in 4 fantasy hockey leagues this year. I had Ryan Miller, Thomas Vanek and Brad Richards in 3 of the 4.

I'm in a bunch of fantasy basketball leagues. If you name an injured player I have him or have had him this season. Well not Gilbert Arenas. After last season, fool me once and all that jazz. And not McGrady, I'm just done with Tracy. But Bynum, Nelson, Ginobili, Kaman, Ellis, Maggette, Brand, Amare, Bosh, Boozer, Deron Williams, Carmelo, Bogut, Redd, Gerald Wallace..... You get the idea. It's just been bloodshed all season. If you just picked up all of the injured stars think about what your team would've looked like pre-season. Guaranteed championship right?

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Bat Hits for Thursday, January 8, 2009

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Before we get into this weeks picks let's look at how I did last week:
  • Cardinals (+2.5) vs Falcons - WINNER
  • Eagles (-3) @ Vikings - WINNER
  • Colts (-1) @ Chargers - LOSER
  • Ravens (-3) @ Dolphins - WINNER
Three outta four ain't bad. Plus the Indy pick looked good until very late. The boy Sproles really got it done. And the Colts shot themselves in the leg (which from now on will be known as Plaxico-ing or Burress-ing yourself) with all of the late defensive penalties. I personally think the defensive holding call was bullshit but I think the other calls were pretty legit, especially the face mask.

AFC

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Tennessee Titans
I'm making this pick assuming Ed Reed plays. If Ed Reed were to miss the game I may be inclined to lean towards the Titans, depending on how the line moves. At the end of the day let's just assume that both teams have moderate success running the ball. Give em each a TD and two red-zone possessions that Bironas and Stover convert. A nice boring 13-13 ball game. This game is going to come down to (1) Which team turns the ball over more (2) Which team converts its' red-zone possessions into TD's instead of field goals. Other than LenDale White, most of the Titans touchdowns have been of the 25+ yard variety. Only 1 or 2 of Justin Gage's touchdowns came on red-zone possessions and any fantasy football owner can tell you no other receivers or tight ends really scored touchdowns for the Titans. Then you've got Derrick Mason (playing lights out and hurt) back in Tennessee against his former team and Todd Heap who's actually looked pretty decent the past month or so. Don't forget that Flacco can tuck the ball and go a little bit too. I'll take the Ravens and points in that case. Tell you this though, if either team scores a special teams or defensive touchdown they win, game over. Also TAKE THE UNDER (35 POINTS) BEFORE THE LINE MOVES DOWN!

San Diego Chargers (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Quick disclaimer here, I'm pretty sure the Steelers win this game. But 6 points is just too many points to give right now with the firepower the Chargers have shown on offense. Not having LT will hurt put the Chargers have a couple of backs beside Sproles and I think they'll be able to at least put together a combined 100 yards. Considering the Steelers only give up 80 yards rushing a game, that ain't bad. I could see Sproles popping a return for big yardage as well. The Steelers secondary is good but not great. The Steelers pass rush has usually kept the secondary from having to cover for long periods of time. If the Chargers can slow down the rush of James Harrison and company Jackson, Gates and Chambers should be able to create separation or find spots to get open down-field. On the other side of the ball look at "Fast" Willie Parker. If the he shows up and gets his 100+ yards on 20+ carries I'm not sure that the Chargers can win unless the Steelers just self-destruct in the red-zone. The Chargers boast one of the worst statistical pass defenses in the league. Look for Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to go to down. Don't sleep on Heath Miller either, the Chargers are just about the WORST team in the league when it comes to covering the tight end. This just feels like a 24-20 victory by the Steelers. If you're going to make a bet this way get it in now, as more people take the Chargers and the points the line will most likely go down to where it should be around 3.5. While we're at it, go ahead and take the OVER at 38 points. If it gets up to about 41 or above you're on your own.

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ New York Giants
If you don't read Bill Simmons over on ESPN you should. He's got some great rules when it comes to betting in the playoffs. He's just one of the many, many people that would tell you that you're smoked picking against the world champs at home, coming off of a bye week. Here's my one stat I'll trot out today. Counting their game on November 20, 2005 the Giants and the Eagles have played 9 times. Why is November 20, 2005 significant? Because that's the last time the favorite covered. Seriously. In fact, in those nine games the favored team has only managed to win the game 3 times. I personally think this game should be Giants (-1.5) so I'm going against myself not to take the Eagles and the points. These are two teams that are built more similar than you would imagine. Both teams can rush the passer well, create turnovers and cover on the back end. I'd rather have the Giants defensive ends but other than that I'd actually give a slight edge to the Eagles at every other defensive position except I'd call middle linebacker a draw between Bradley and Pierce. On offense both teams have nice offensive lines with a slight edge to the Giants. The Giants also have the edge at running back but you'd be fool to discount Brian Westbrook or even Correll Buckhalter. Give me McNabb over Eli and the Eagles WR's over those of the Giants. Call Boss vs. Celek a wash. The Eagles also get the edge in special teams, both on coverage and returns. By my calculations that means I like the Eagles more than the Giants. But the Giants have home-field and the world champion swagger. Look for this one to be a more traditional NFC East game with lots of hitting and defense, but somehow lots of scoring at the same time. I'll take the OVER at 40 but I would hesitate to go much over 45.

Carolina Panthers (-10) vs Arizona Cardinals
Look at me picking a home team to cover. Truth be told, if I thought that Boldin was going to play at anything close to 100% I'd be taking the Cardinals. Again, not to win, but starting the game with 10 points is big. The Panthers are actually only 1-3 ATS (Against The Spread) at home this year, with one of those spread losses coming against the Cardinals. Arizona actually led for quite a while in that game and almost blew it at the end. The Cardinals did an excellent job against Michael Turner last week. But everybody forgets that Turner never really did a ton outside of a dome this year. He played (I believe) 11 of 16 games in a dome so you really didn't notice it that much. Stopping Williams and Stewart in Carolina is a whole different ballgame. Between those two and Steve Smith I think the Panthers have enough to win the game right there. For the Cardinals to win this game, Edge is going to have to turn back the clock. And keep spinning it backwards for a few years. If the Cardinals come out with a run/pass ratio of 30/70 or worse they're done. Even if the run game is ineffective they have to stick with it, especially without Boldin. James has to break at least 1 long TD run. The lack of a real tight end could also really bite the Cardinals in the ass this game. Give Arizona the special teams edge but it's just not enough. The Cardinals will make a game of this but if Warner does his thing and turns the ball over while trying to lead a comeback, the Panthers will cover. This is the hardest game to call as far as the under/over goes but if you stuck the proverbial gun to my head I'd take the UNDER at 49.

Betting lines courtesy of Bodog and are accurate as of Thursday, January 8, 2009 at 11 AM.

Monday, December 29, 2008

Early NFL Playoff Picks

NFC

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
The Cardinals have been tough all year at home (6-2 SU) and seemed to turn a corner this Sunday, at least offensively. The Falcons should be able to run the ball against the Cardinals but Michael Turner has not been a Superman away from home or outside in general. The Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and it will be up to Matt Ryan to lead the Falcons to a road victory in the playoffs. Chalk this one up as a learning experience for the young Falcons who should be a force in the NFC South for the next decade with Matt Ryan at the helm. This Falcons team reminds me a lot of the Philadelphia Eagles team in 2000 with a young QB (McNabb) and relatively unknown coach (Reid).

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
This probably seems like the Captain Obvious pick after the Eagles destroyed the Cowboys but never write off a team with a superstar the caliber of Adrian Peterson. Unfortuneately the Eagles are well-coached enough to force the Vikings Tavaris Jackson to do enough to win the game. Does anybody really think Jackson is going to come through with Jim Johnson blitzing him damn near every play? The Vikings run defense is stout still but Pat Williams will not be 100% for this game and Andy Reid and the Eagles aren't going to primarily run the ball anyway. Unless Adrian Peterson can go for 200 yards and at least 2 scores I cannot see the Vikings pulling this one off, even at home, not matter how well Brad Childress knows Andy Reid and McNabb.

AFC

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at San Diego Chargers
Does anybody really want to bet against Peyton Manning right now? The Chargers may have shredded the Broncos defense but who hasn't? The Broncos defense might just be as bad as the Lions and that's saying something. San Diego has had a ton of problems in their secondary and their pass rush is severely weakened without Merriman. Plus the Colts are probably going to be as healthy for this game as they've been for any game all year. Do you really think a Norv Turner team is gonna get up for this game? Don't look now but LT is banged up again going into the playoffs. It's just too easy to see the Chargers sticking with LT at far less than 100% while their most dynamic weapon (Sproles) watches from the sideline.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Miami Dolphins
This is the closest game to pick this week. Miami turned the ball over fewer than any team in NFL history this year. The Ravens win most of their games by converting turnovers forced by their defense. How would the Ravens fare if their defense cannot get the ball or field position for the offense? What about Derek Mason's shoulder? In the end you have to think that both Flacco and Pennington take care of the ball. So that basically leaves the question of who can run the ball better and who can stop the run better. I believe that the answer to both questions is the Ravens. Giving the 3 points is pushing it a bit here because this could very easily be a 1 or 2 point game. These teams are very evenly matched. That Ravens D is a veteran unit with a lot of history together and Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are the unquestioned leaders of that team. I'm not sure that the Dolphins have a locker dynamic similar to that and the Dolphins are much younger as a team overall. Watch out for a Willis McGahee sighting, seemingly out of nowhere.