The Knicks have 3 basic options right now.
- The status quo. They trade youth for veterans or take on more contracts. Most likely this involves trading Marbury's huge (approx $20 million) expiring contract for players with multiple years left on their deals. They got D'Antoni to run this circus and they "retool" on the fly trying to take a shot in the always weak East. LeBron and D-Wade are not factors in the Knicks future because in this scenario the Knicks are capped out (and over the luxury tax line) for the next 5-7 years.
- The nuclear option. Hold onto Marbury's contract for dear life, unless you can package it with Randolph's albatross of a deal and take back contracts that only have 2 years left. Extend only David Lee's contract. Do not trade for anybody with more than 2 years left on their deal. Do not sign any players, other than your draft picks, to more than a 2 year deal. Stockpile draft picks and cap space. D'Antoni's job is to develop the draft picks and any other young talent while keeping the fans entertained. And sane. The Knicks land LeBron or D-Wade and one more good player in a couple summers. Veterans sign on the cheap. The Knicks hope they can win a couple of titles. They are well over the luxury tax and have no cap room for a decade. But they have LeBron.
- The half-assed option. The Knicks attempt to "rebuild on the fly" while stockpiling cap space for the LeBron and D-Wade pipe dream. Contracts with 2 seasons left hold more value than draft picks. Most of the young talent the Knicks have is traded away because they can't extend contracts while trying to pay veterans to field and competitive team and stockpile cap space. From a business standpoint this is by far the best option. You try to make a deep playoff run or two and then land LeBron. This allows you to REALLY pump up prices. This scenario also comes with the greatest risk. If you don't land LeBron you're handcuffing your ability to compete by not using money to add to your current team. Cap space isn't all it's cracked up to be. Look at Rashard Lewis' contract. He's a nice player, but come on. By doing this you basically ensure that you will not field the best team possible and you will not have massive amounts of cap space.
- Donnie Walsh will bring in the veteran type players that fit D'Antoni's system/philosophy. They will expect him to build a team very similar to the one that he had in Phoenix the past few seasons. The team will have high expectations and will be expected to compete at a high level from day one. The Knicks as a team will get smaller and faster. This is a high pressure coaching situation. One losing season and one first round playoff exit in the first two seasons will not be an acceptable outcome. This is the approach used by Isiah when he took over the Knicks, which is why I feel that it is the least likely to happen. This will be the scenario favored by fans because it will be blatantly obvious that the Knicks are "going for it" right away.
- This is probably the dream scenario for D'Antoni. The Knicks acknowledge that they're gearing up for a big free agency score in a couple of years and they get to work trimming the fat. D'Antoni's job is to figure out who fits in his system and develop all of the young talent that he can. Expectations are realistic and a first round playoff exit or two will seem like progress as opposed to a disappointment. This is similar to the approach used by the Sixers after they dealt Iverson away. Given the state of the Eastern Conference, anything is possible. If the Knicks strike lottery gold they could get good in a hurry. D'Antoni will be expected to be in the conference finals, if not the Finals in the last year of his deal.
- Danger Billy King, Danger! This is the most dangerous scenario because it can lead you through a rebuilding process that takes you from here to win it now to blow it up. That pretty much destroys your team for the better part of a decade. The young players will not get enough time to properly develop or for them to be evaluated. Veterans will all be playing for their next contract which can lead to a lot of conflict and selfishness. D'Antoni will be the ringmaster, trying to balance out the young and the old and those with contracts and those without. If the team does ok the temptation will be to make a move or two to go for it now. If the team struggles it will be that much harder to blow it up after you've already added players and salary. This scenario never seems to be carried out successfully in the NBA.
That's the bottom line. A bloody debacle, it is. My best guess as to what happens? They hang on to Marbury's contract. They ship Randolph for anything that expires inside of three years. They use Crawford to dump another bad deal. They'll try to pump up the value of Nate Robinson and the rest of Isiah's young guns. They miss the playoffs for the next two seasons. Unless they hit lottery gold. In that case all bets are off.
What a world, what a country. The Knicks still have a chance. Wow.
From the horse's mouth.
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