Suns To Fire D'Antoni. Is This Really A Good Move?

This is not official yet but is being reported heavily by SI.com. Let's hop in our Delorean, feed Mr. Fusion and hit 88 miles-per-hour. No, we're not going back to 1955, we're so sick of that year. Instead let's go back to 2003. Some guy (Mike D'Antoni) who has been coaching in Europe is picked to take over as the coach of the Phoenix Suns at mid-season. He brought with him a fast-paced style of basketball that hadn't been run in the NBA in more than a hot minute. He led a D-League team to 21 wins in 61 games. Remember this is immediately after the Stephon Marbury trade. Howard Eisley, Charlie Ward, Antonio McDyess and Maciej Lampe replaced Marbury, Penny Hardaway and Cezary Trybanski. Who woulda thought that 4 years later it looks like McDyess was the best player in that deal? (Just a note, when researching the Marbury trade I noticed that the Knicks still owe the Suns their first-round pick in 2010. Unless the Suns have traded it away, which they might have. Isiah is just the gift that keeps on giving ain't he?)

Bryan Colangelo made a series of outstanding moves to provide D-Antoni with the firepower he needed to run his system. He drafted Amare Stoudemire, acquired Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson (then traded him for Kurt Thomas, thanks again Isiah), Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw (in a trade for Joe Johnson, Tim Thomas and most importantly Steve Nash. (Someday soon we'll revisit that signing, it's worth it) So it's fair to say that D'Antoni was given a lot of talent to work with. The supporting cast was in a constant state of flux but the core remained the same until Marion was dealt for Shaq in 2008. (Although I'm still convinced that the sole purpose of that deal was to dump Marcus Banks and his contract)

Mike D'Antoni Suns Career (03-08)

YEAR TEAM G W L PCT POSTW POSTL
2004 Phoenix Suns 61 21 40 .344 0 0
2005 Phoenix Suns 82 62 20 .756 9 6
2006 Phoenix Suns 82 54 28 .659 10 10
2007 Phoenix Suns 82 61 21 .744 6 5
2008 Phoenix Suns 82 55 27 .671 1 4

Let's examine the talent of the Phoenix Suns under D'Antoni

Players who've been All-Star caliber under D'Antoni and under another coach
-Steve Nash
-Joe Johnson
-Shawn Marion

Players drafted under D'Antoni who have been very good to All-Star caliber
-Amare Stoudemire
-Leandro Barbosa

Players who have been better under a coach other than D'Antoni
-Kurt Thomas
-Marcus Banks

Players who have thrived under D'Antoni as opposed to another coach or team
-Raja Bell
-Quentin Richardson
-Tim Thomas
-Boris Diaw

*Not included in this list are Grant Hill and Shaquille O'Neal both of whom were acquired after Colangelo departed. Hill was as productive for D'Antoni as he's been this decade and Shaq played much better than he had in Miami this season, silencing his detractors who called for his retirement.

It's safe to say that D'Antoni has gotten the most out of his players. Kurt Thomas was hurt too often and he got erratic playing time due to the Suns running "small ball" a great deal of the time. Marcus Banks was only ever any good in college and for about 25 games in Minnesota which he parlayed into his contract with the Suns. He's not a cerebral or unselfish enough point guard for D'Antoni's system. Other than those two, every major rotation player D'Antoni's ever had has played as well, or better, than he has his entire career. That's the sign of a good coach. Some other signs include never winning less than 54 games in the regular season, reaching the Western Conference Finals twice and reaching the post-season every year in a grueling Western Conference. Yes he's failed to make it to, or win the NBA Finals but it's a select group of teams that have been able to do that this decade. The Pistons and the Heat had their moments but the 2000's have belonged to San Antonio and Los Angeles. It's not like the Suns were losing to the #8 seed every year in the playoffs.

We have a couple of historical examples for this and they don't bode well for the Suns. Two coaches with a very similar history (albeit in different sports) are Marv Levy (Buffalo Bills, 4 straight Super Bowl losses, multiple other playoff losses) and Andy Reid (Philadelphia Eagles, 3 straight conference finals losses, 1 Super Bowl loss, multiple other playoff losses). I guess that the trend is that sometimes it just doesn't happen even if the team and the coach are both excellent. Both of these coaches continued to get their teams to the post-season year after year and that's something you have to do in order to give yourself a chance to win it all.

So should the Suns fire D'Antoni? Not a chance in hell. Even with Shaq they're still built to run and their window is currently next year. That's it. It's one year at a time from here on out and they don't have a lot of rebuilding options. Shaq is untradeable, Amare is their most important player and without Nash they have a gaping hole at PG. Plus at Nash's age and with his medical history, it's questionable how much they could really get back for him. So the Suns' options are to (A) Keep D'Antoni, actually use a draft pick or two and get another big man for the rotation (B) Bring in another coach to run D'Antoni's system. Why would you buy a Go-Bot when you already have Optimus Prime? (C) The Hiroshima option. Trade everybody except Barbosa and Amare, hang onto to Shaq's deal as it expires and make a push for Dwayne Wade in 2010. (D) If AI opts out of his contract this June do everything possible to get him to take a mid-level deal for a year or two to make a title push, Denver ain't going anywhere (E) Trade Nash straight up for Jason Kidd. Why not? Seriously, why not? They both would get to return to their original home-after-home. Again.

To recap, you're best chance to win is roll with what you've got and try to make a couple of short-term tweaks. Most of the Suns contracts will expire in or by 2010 so they're in pretty good shape for the future. And they MUST USE THEIR DRAFT PICKS TO DRAFT PLAYERS. Part of the Suns problem is a lack of quality depth which stems from trading away first round draft choices year after year for cash. And to avoid the luxury tax. These aren't NFL rookies there, their is a set pay-scale and they're cheap for 4 years. Get with the program.