The Curse of the #1 Pick

Title links to the USA Today interview with Colts GM Bill Polian. He's a great interview because he's very direct and just not really a bullshitter by nature. (Note: Bullshitter is apparently in the dictionary because spellcheck was fine with it, but spellcheck is apparently not) It's short so read it, real quick.

Let's get down to how I feel about the #1 pick in the NFL Draft these days. It's a tremendous burden. When is the last time that it really worked out well for a team? The easy answer is 2004 when the Giants traded up to get Eli Manning. The actual cost for trading up (via San Diego) was Philip Rivers, Shawn Merriman and Nate Kaeding. Although the Chargers actually asked for Osi but Ernie Acorsi wouldn't give him up. 6 months ago this did not look like the Giants were gonna end up on the winning end of this deal. But ain't that a bitch, Eli just won the Super Bowl for the Giants. Believe it or not this marks the last time a team has traded up into or within the top 7 picks. Considering how well this has worked out for the Giants shouldn't this be happening more often now? The NFL is a copycat league right?

Ain't gonna happen. Well why not? Because the cost is prohibitive. Extremely prohibitive. You have to give up assets to trade up and then you have to pay the player you get like he's one of the 3 best at his position in the league immediately. There's a very good chance that this player will be the highest paid player on his team before he ever plays a single snap. Now how is that sane? No other sport even comes close to this. I just cannot see veterans in the locker room accepting this easily. All the way from the minimum salary guys to the superstars who now feel that they are underpaid. Unless the player you get is Tom Brady right from the jump things are gonna get worse before they get better. Plus the assets you give up are generally players who make less and later draft picks who also make less. This throws off the balance in a team's salary structure. Having a top 3 draft pick is the equivalent of spending in free agency the way the Redskins do every year. You just keep pushing off the salary cap disaster until one season it just can't be fixed and there's a mass exodus. Think about all the picks the Raiders have had since 2002. They got 2 extra 1st rounders and 2 extra 2nd rounders from Tampa for Gruden. The Raiders usually pick in the top 10 if not the top 5 these days. You know how much talent that should represent? But it doesn't. What happens is you have a right guard who makes $7 million a year and he's just an average player. You have a CB who makes much more than his much more talented teammate CB. You have a QB who makes more money than Tom Brady. The list goes on. It just doesn't work to pick high. But nobody will trade up to allow teams to trade back. So what do the Miami Dolphins do this April?

They basically have two options. They open up Pandora's Box by taking very little to trade down. If they traded down from say 1 to 7 and only got back a 2nd round pick this year it would be the end of Jimmy Johnson's little trade chart. This move would also be an open admission that the price of a top 5 draft pick is just too high to fathom. NFL agents will argue that they're clients should be paid like this because the NFL makes a shitload of money and their clients need to be protected from injury and/or extenuating circumstances. In other words if their client gets arrested or is a bust. But doesn't this sound suspiciously like NFL teams are required to pay players based on their play at the college level? The players can get insurance policies to help protect them from injuries. So basically teams should give these guys extra millions of dollars because they were great in college but that might not transfer to the NFL? Then you have guys picked in the 6th round who go on to be stars but they can't make shit until their 5th year really. Anyway, that's obviously how I feel about that.

The Dolphins do have another option. You have to figure that they have at least 5 players on their board that they really like but none worth of the first pick. There is no rule that says they have to pick first. There's a time limit on the picks. If you miss it you get skipped. Just ask the Vikings. So the Dolphins could just chill. 10 minutes passes and the Rams are up. Now the Rams have to make a decision. Technically they are making the #1 overall pick but their rookie salary pool was calculated assuming they would have the #2 overall pick. Plus do they have anybody on their draft board rated high enough to take #1 overall? So what if the Rams elected not to pick? Considering this round is now in primetime, Roger Goodell's head would explode. So that should help keep the ratings up. What if teams really did this? In reality it probably wouldn't work. It would make a statement but it wouldn't work. Say every team in the first round opted not to exercise a pick. All that would happen is the Dolphins would still pick first overall and teams would be going crazy trying to jump over each other. But I could argue for the Dolphins to not use the first pick. Even if the Rams passed at that point somebody would either trade up or get ready to pick first if it passed to them. Then the Dolphins could just back in line, get a player they would've taken first overall for half or maybe a third of the cost. You might not add any additional assets but you would get the player you wanted at a much more reasonable salary and you would be sending a message to players and agents that you are not to be taken lightly as an organization and you will stick to your principles. (See Patriots, New England)