Early NFL Playoff Picks

NFC

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons
The Cardinals have been tough all year at home (6-2 SU) and seemed to turn a corner this Sunday, at least offensively. The Falcons should be able to run the ball against the Cardinals but Michael Turner has not been a Superman away from home or outside in general. The Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and it will be up to Matt Ryan to lead the Falcons to a road victory in the playoffs. Chalk this one up as a learning experience for the young Falcons who should be a force in the NFC South for the next decade with Matt Ryan at the helm. This Falcons team reminds me a lot of the Philadelphia Eagles team in 2000 with a young QB (McNabb) and relatively unknown coach (Reid).

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
This probably seems like the Captain Obvious pick after the Eagles destroyed the Cowboys but never write off a team with a superstar the caliber of Adrian Peterson. Unfortuneately the Eagles are well-coached enough to force the Vikings Tavaris Jackson to do enough to win the game. Does anybody really think Jackson is going to come through with Jim Johnson blitzing him damn near every play? The Vikings run defense is stout still but Pat Williams will not be 100% for this game and Andy Reid and the Eagles aren't going to primarily run the ball anyway. Unless Adrian Peterson can go for 200 yards and at least 2 scores I cannot see the Vikings pulling this one off, even at home, not matter how well Brad Childress knows Andy Reid and McNabb.

AFC

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at San Diego Chargers
Does anybody really want to bet against Peyton Manning right now? The Chargers may have shredded the Broncos defense but who hasn't? The Broncos defense might just be as bad as the Lions and that's saying something. San Diego has had a ton of problems in their secondary and their pass rush is severely weakened without Merriman. Plus the Colts are probably going to be as healthy for this game as they've been for any game all year. Do you really think a Norv Turner team is gonna get up for this game? Don't look now but LT is banged up again going into the playoffs. It's just too easy to see the Chargers sticking with LT at far less than 100% while their most dynamic weapon (Sproles) watches from the sideline.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Miami Dolphins
This is the closest game to pick this week. Miami turned the ball over fewer than any team in NFL history this year. The Ravens win most of their games by converting turnovers forced by their defense. How would the Ravens fare if their defense cannot get the ball or field position for the offense? What about Derek Mason's shoulder? In the end you have to think that both Flacco and Pennington take care of the ball. So that basically leaves the question of who can run the ball better and who can stop the run better. I believe that the answer to both questions is the Ravens. Giving the 3 points is pushing it a bit here because this could very easily be a 1 or 2 point game. These teams are very evenly matched. That Ravens D is a veteran unit with a lot of history together and Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are the unquestioned leaders of that team. I'm not sure that the Dolphins have a locker dynamic similar to that and the Dolphins are much younger as a team overall. Watch out for a Willis McGahee sighting, seemingly out of nowhere.