2009 NFL Week 1 - Spread Em (Monday Night Edition)

Here's the picks. (Pick is first-listed)

PATRIOTS (-11.5) vs Bills
UNDER 47.5

RAIDERS (+10.5) vs Chargers
UNDER 43

2009 NFL Week 1 - You Talkin To Me?

This is where I look like an idiot or a genius. Seriously, ask Ryan, I can pay the cover. Anyway, this is where I look back and figure out how much of an asshole I really was this week. If I can't call myself out, what can I do?

JAGER BOMBS

Mike Bell - Did everything I could hope, except fucking score. That's what she said. Seriously though, Mike Bell just really fucked Pierre Thomas' value up. Although it would help if the Saints could keep a LT healthy.

LeSean McCoy - This doesn't seem like much, but take out your Sharpie. The Eagles' offense was for the most part, ineffective and McCoy looked great while he was in. Buy low now, if you own Westbrook and not McCoy, don't bitch when you're fucked. Too harsh, too soon?

Percy Harvin - He's gonna get the ball. He's not more than a bye week/flex start in most leagues unless you're in a PPR and/or a league where return yards count.

Mark Sanchez - Got a good o-line, an aggressive defense and a first-time head coach. The only difference between the Falcons last year and the Jets this year is that the Jets play in the same division as the Patriots.

Felix Jones/Patrick Crayton - News flash, the Cowboys are gonna score. What you didn't know is Felix Jones and Patrick Crayton and gonna score as many points as Roy Williams (2.0) and Marion Barber (3.0?) You heard me.


YOU OK BRO?

Cadillac Williams - If I need to tell you to sell high...... Seriously get off the crack. Or the pills. Not for fake, what do you think, he's Garrison Hearst?

Jason Campbell - He ain't gonna get it done. Is any Redskins' fan happy with Campbell as their QB? Highly fucking doubtful.

Clinton Portis - Again, if you're not selling high, you ain't playin right.

Donovan McNabb - What you thought he would make it though a season clean? He'll try to get back as soon as possible in order to squash any QB controversy.

Jake Delhomme - Not long for an NFL job. Can the Panthers give up a 1st round pick for Vick? If Seymour is worth one, why not.

Steve Smith - See, Delhomme, Jake. Is a blowa.

Denver Broncos - "We beat the Bengals!" Yeah, I don't believe yet either. Peeps are copping the "Kiss the Baby" t-shirts. Denver isn't even a hot mess. They're diarrhea in a laundry basket.

2009 NFL Week 1 - Spread Em

Blah, blah, blah. Here's the picks. (Pick is first-listed)

Dolphins (+4) @ FALCONS
UNDER 35

RAVENS (-13) vsChiefs
UNDER 44

PANTHERS (+3) vs Eagles
UNDER 43.5

BENGALS (-5) vs Broncos
OVER 42

TEXANS (-5) vs Jets
UNDER 44

COLTS (-7) vs Jaguars
OVER 45.5

Lions (+14) @ SAINTS
OVER 50

Cowboys (-5.5) @ BUCS
UNDER 39.5

49er's (+6) @ CARDINALS
UNDER 46

GIANTS (-6.5) vs Redskins
UNDER 37

SEAHAWKS (-8) vs Rams
UNDER 41

Bears (+4.5) @ PACKERS
OVER 47

Check back tomorrow to see how much of degenerate I am. Of course if I'm kicking ass then you'll be riding the Monday Nite Gravy Train, no doubt.

And the ELIMINATE-HER pick of the week is the: Baltimore Ravens. Roll with them in your survival pools this week. Others that look good are the Saints, Chargers, Patriots, Cowboys and Vikings.

Fantasy Football 2009 - Week 1 Sleepers & Busts

Shouldn't I try to come up with something more original than "Sleepers & Busts"? I figured it would be easier to come up with something for busts. You can pretty much just substitute the name of your favorite degenerate. I would normally choose Willie Green, but that's not a broad enough reference to appeal to the masses. So what to use for busts? Ryan Leaf jumps out at me but that seems to easy. Sam Bowie? Not football, but still pretty good. There's no way I'm typing Nikoloz Tskitishvili every week, although he is the epitome of a bust. Could I use a movie? Is "Godfather 3" a bust? This is harder than it seems. Onto the actual content, I'll try to come up with something before next week.

Before we get started, some ground rules. Sleepers are guys that are either on your bench or your waiver wire. A guy who's a sleeper in a 14-team league is probably irrelevant in an 8-team league, depending on your settings.

WEEK 1 SLEEPERS

• Ray Rice (vs KC) Rice barely qualifies as a sleeper. Rice was a legit 2nd RB in a lot of drafts as August ended. He's got a cake matchup, at home. Rice is a must-start in any format and could be a PPR monster this week, and this season.
• Fred Jackson (@ NE) Again, everybody knows Marshawn Lynch is suspended but not everybody handcuffed Jackson to Lynch. Jackson has a good history against the Patriots and the Bills will try to stress the run as their young offensive line tries to find itself. This won't be anything sexy, but 70 yards rushing, 60 yards recieving and a TD still comes out to 19 points. Again, bump up Jackson in a PPR league.
• Mike Bell (vs DET) Until further notice, last year's rule still stands: start EVERYBODY vs the Lions. So as long as Pierre Thomas is out, I would feel comfortable starting Bell in almost any league. Reggie Bush too, but I'd rather have Bell unless I'm in a PPR league. In a deep league I might still roll Bell in my flex even if Thomas plays. Pierre Thomas owners should handcuff Bell, like yesterday.
• Antonio Bryant (vs DAL) Who else is catching balls in Tampa? I'll believe Kellen Winslow when I see him out on the field, being productive, for 16 games. I don't have a lot of faith in Tampa's new 14-headed running back situation and the Cowboys should be up early. Let me be clear on this. I'm not an Antonio Bryant guy. I think last year was a fluke. I could be wrong. But this week, he's Nino and G-Money. I'd start him in most leagues this week as long as he starts.
  
• Derrick Mason (vs KC) Mason is always a PPR beast, but his lack of touchdowns hurts his value. Betcha he scores this week. Call it 85 yards and a TD? That means he's good to go in most leagues this week. In a PPR he should start most weeks.
• Leon Washington (@ HOU) Due to the presence of multiple decent running backs on the Jets roster, none of them will be extremely valuable, barring injury. But I really like Washington, especially early in the year. Sanchez should end up leaning on Dustin Keller and Leon Washington early as he acclimates to the NFL and his offense. But Leon just needs to bust 1 long one to have value and I think he's got that in him this week.
• Felix Jones (vs DAL) I deliberately avoid directing any of my league members to Get To The Chopper. When they know exactly what I think, it will kill my ability to trade. But I don't hide anything either. That being said I LOVE FELIX JONES. I expect Jones to finish the year as a top-20 back easily, with a crack at the top-12. Of course he has to stay healthy. But this kid is dyn-o-mite. For me he's basically an every week start. He will be for everybody else too, in about three weeks. So be ahead of the curve.
• John Carlson (vs STL) Again, how much of a sleeper is Carlson? Yes, he will be asked to block a bit more than expected. But we think he gets into the endzone against the Rams this week. 50 yards and a TD for a TE means start him in most leagues.
• Dustin Keller (@ HOU) Keller should be Sanchez's #1 target right now. He's looked great in the pre-season and came on the clap at the end of last season. He should be owned in all leagues that must start at least 1 TE.
• Zack Miller (vs SD) He might be all JaMarcus Russell really has right now. I'm not sure he finds the endzone, but I'm basically positive he catches 7+ balls. If the Raiders can get in the redzone, I think Miller can find paydirt. Smoke em if ya got em.
• Kevin Smith (@ NO) I guess this is more lineup advice than sleeper, but Smith should start in every format this week, and most weeks. He should be starting over any rookie RB, Reggie Bush, Addai, any Raiders RB, Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, any Patriots RB..... get the picture Chief?
• Anthony Gonzalez (vs JAX) He's pry a guy that you drafted as your WR3. I would have no problem starting him as your WR2 this week. He has a ridiculous ceiling and should get redzone looks. Start him over a Brandon Marshall, Santana Moss, Cotchery-type.
• Joe Flacco (vs KC) If you haven't figured it out, start your Ravens this week. Flacco might not be sexy (or Sexy-Rexy for that matter) but he's a nice, safe start this week with good upside. That's what you want for Week 1. Don't start somebody like Brett Favre, Matt Cassel or Kyle Orton over Flacco.

A quick note on busts. Some of these are just situations I would like to avoid but they might be unavoidable. It all depends on why a player is a potential bust. It could be because of matchup, injury, limited upside or any number of other things.

WEEK 1 BUSTS

• Larry Johnson (@ BAL) Do you really need me to explain this to you? I'd start Dwayne Bowe and avoid all other Chiefs like the herpes. Jamal Charles might might make for an interesting play in a really deep PPR league, but that's about it.
• Jamal Lewis (vs MIN) The Williams wall is playing. That's something that shouldn't be said for Jamal Lewis and your fantasy team. And this is not the week to jump on the James Davis bandwagon. I would avoid all Browns if possible (not IDP), including Braylon Edwards.
• All Jaguars WR's (@IND) When it comes to Jags WR's, I'll believe it when I see it. And I ain't seen shit. Troy Williamson? Really? Torry Holt looked so old last year. And I used to heart Torry Holt. There will be some value to be had here. Just don't go looking this week.
• Jonathan Stewart (vs PHI) I'm still scurred. Wait a week or two until you know what you're getting. It might not be a bad time to buy-low or sell-high on Stewart, depending if you own him and/or DeAngelo Williams.
• Kevin Walter (vs NYJ) It doesn't look like he'll play, but don't start him if he does. Easy enough?
• All Tampa Bay RB's (vs DAL) This split has officially killed their value, until the first injury strikes. It might actually be Graham with the value right now, if he's the goal line back. Ward might have a little value in a PPR, but I'd rather start Kevin Faulk this week.
• Any Cardinals RB's (vs SF) This is a case where you need to see how it all shakes out. I'd start Hightower if I had to choose this week, but avoid it if possible. We should have clarity soon, either with Beanie getting hurt again, or somebody stepping up and at least defining the roles.
• Matt Cassel (@ BAL) Don't
• Jake Delhomme (vs PHI) Do it
• Marc Bulger (@ SEA) To yourself