Here's the picks. (Pick is first-listed)
PATRIOTS (-11.5) vs Bills
UNDER 47.5
RAIDERS (+10.5) vs Chargers
UNDER 43
Sunday, September 13, 2009
2009 NFL Week 1 - You Talkin To Me?
This is where I look like an idiot or a genius. Seriously, ask Ryan, I can pay the cover. Anyway, this is where I look back and figure out how much of an asshole I really was this week. If I can't call myself out, what can I do?
JAGER BOMBS
Mike Bell - Did everything I could hope, except fucking score. That's what she said. Seriously though, Mike Bell just really fucked Pierre Thomas' value up. Although it would help if the Saints could keep a LT healthy.
LeSean McCoy - This doesn't seem like much, but take out your Sharpie. The Eagles' offense was for the most part, ineffective and McCoy looked great while he was in. Buy low now, if you own Westbrook and not McCoy, don't bitch when you're fucked. Too harsh, too soon?
Percy Harvin - He's gonna get the ball. He's not more than a bye week/flex start in most leagues unless you're in a PPR and/or a league where return yards count.
Mark Sanchez - Got a good o-line, an aggressive defense and a first-time head coach. The only difference between the Falcons last year and the Jets this year is that the Jets play in the same division as the Patriots.
Felix Jones/Patrick Crayton - News flash, the Cowboys are gonna score. What you didn't know is Felix Jones and Patrick Crayton and gonna score as many points as Roy Williams (2.0) and Marion Barber (3.0?) You heard me.
YOU OK BRO?
Cadillac Williams - If I need to tell you to sell high...... Seriously get off the crack. Or the pills. Not for fake, what do you think, he's Garrison Hearst?
Jason Campbell - He ain't gonna get it done. Is any Redskins' fan happy with Campbell as their QB? Highly fucking doubtful.
Clinton Portis - Again, if you're not selling high, you ain't playin right.
Donovan McNabb - What you thought he would make it though a season clean? He'll try to get back as soon as possible in order to squash any QB controversy.
Jake Delhomme - Not long for an NFL job. Can the Panthers give up a 1st round pick for Vick? If Seymour is worth one, why not.
Steve Smith - See, Delhomme, Jake. Is a blowa.
Denver Broncos - "We beat the Bengals!" Yeah, I don't believe yet either. Peeps are copping the "Kiss the Baby" t-shirts. Denver isn't even a hot mess. They're diarrhea in a laundry basket.
JAGER BOMBS
Mike Bell - Did everything I could hope, except fucking score. That's what she said. Seriously though, Mike Bell just really fucked Pierre Thomas' value up. Although it would help if the Saints could keep a LT healthy.
LeSean McCoy - This doesn't seem like much, but take out your Sharpie. The Eagles' offense was for the most part, ineffective and McCoy looked great while he was in. Buy low now, if you own Westbrook and not McCoy, don't bitch when you're fucked. Too harsh, too soon?
Percy Harvin - He's gonna get the ball. He's not more than a bye week/flex start in most leagues unless you're in a PPR and/or a league where return yards count.
Mark Sanchez - Got a good o-line, an aggressive defense and a first-time head coach. The only difference between the Falcons last year and the Jets this year is that the Jets play in the same division as the Patriots.
Felix Jones/Patrick Crayton - News flash, the Cowboys are gonna score. What you didn't know is Felix Jones and Patrick Crayton and gonna score as many points as Roy Williams (2.0) and Marion Barber (3.0?) You heard me.
YOU OK BRO?
Cadillac Williams - If I need to tell you to sell high...... Seriously get off the crack. Or the pills. Not for fake, what do you think, he's Garrison Hearst?
Jason Campbell - He ain't gonna get it done. Is any Redskins' fan happy with Campbell as their QB? Highly fucking doubtful.
Clinton Portis - Again, if you're not selling high, you ain't playin right.
Donovan McNabb - What you thought he would make it though a season clean? He'll try to get back as soon as possible in order to squash any QB controversy.
Jake Delhomme - Not long for an NFL job. Can the Panthers give up a 1st round pick for Vick? If Seymour is worth one, why not.
Steve Smith - See, Delhomme, Jake. Is a blowa.
Denver Broncos - "We beat the Bengals!" Yeah, I don't believe yet either. Peeps are copping the "Kiss the Baby" t-shirts. Denver isn't even a hot mess. They're diarrhea in a laundry basket.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
2009 NFL Week 1 - Spread Em
Blah, blah, blah. Here's the picks. (Pick is first-listed)
Dolphins (+4) @ FALCONS
UNDER 35
RAVENS (-13) vsChiefs
UNDER 44
PANTHERS (+3) vs Eagles
UNDER 43.5
BENGALS (-5) vs Broncos
OVER 42
TEXANS (-5) vs Jets
UNDER 44
COLTS (-7) vs Jaguars
OVER 45.5
Lions (+14) @ SAINTS
OVER 50
Cowboys (-5.5) @ BUCS
UNDER 39.5
49er's (+6) @ CARDINALS
UNDER 46
GIANTS (-6.5) vs Redskins
UNDER 37
SEAHAWKS (-8) vs Rams
UNDER 41
Bears (+4.5) @ PACKERS
OVER 47
Check back tomorrow to see how much of degenerate I am. Of course if I'm kicking ass then you'll be riding the Monday Nite Gravy Train, no doubt.
And the ELIMINATE-HER pick of the week is the: Baltimore Ravens. Roll with them in your survival pools this week. Others that look good are the Saints, Chargers, Patriots, Cowboys and Vikings.
Dolphins (+4) @ FALCONS
UNDER 35
RAVENS (-13) vsChiefs
UNDER 44
PANTHERS (+3) vs Eagles
UNDER 43.5
BENGALS (-5) vs Broncos
OVER 42
TEXANS (-5) vs Jets
UNDER 44
COLTS (-7) vs Jaguars
OVER 45.5
Lions (+14) @ SAINTS
OVER 50
Cowboys (-5.5) @ BUCS
UNDER 39.5
49er's (+6) @ CARDINALS
UNDER 46
GIANTS (-6.5) vs Redskins
UNDER 37
SEAHAWKS (-8) vs Rams
UNDER 41
Bears (+4.5) @ PACKERS
OVER 47
Check back tomorrow to see how much of degenerate I am. Of course if I'm kicking ass then you'll be riding the Monday Nite Gravy Train, no doubt.
And the ELIMINATE-HER pick of the week is the: Baltimore Ravens. Roll with them in your survival pools this week. Others that look good are the Saints, Chargers, Patriots, Cowboys and Vikings.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Fantasy Football 2009 - Week 1 Sleepers & Busts
Shouldn't I try to come up with something more original than "Sleepers & Busts"? I figured it would be easier to come up with something for busts. You can pretty much just substitute the name of your favorite degenerate. I would normally choose Willie Green, but that's not a broad enough reference to appeal to the masses. So what to use for busts? Ryan Leaf jumps out at me but that seems to easy. Sam Bowie? Not football, but still pretty good. There's no way I'm typing Nikoloz Tskitishvili every week, although he is the epitome of a bust. Could I use a movie? Is "Godfather 3" a bust? This is harder than it seems. Onto the actual content, I'll try to come up with something before next week.
Before we get started, some ground rules. Sleepers are guys that are either on your bench or your waiver wire. A guy who's a sleeper in a 14-team league is probably irrelevant in an 8-team league, depending on your settings.
WEEK 1 SLEEPERS
A quick note on busts. Some of these are just situations I would like to avoid but they might be unavoidable. It all depends on why a player is a potential bust. It could be because of matchup, injury, limited upside or any number of other things.
WEEK 1 BUSTS
Before we get started, some ground rules. Sleepers are guys that are either on your bench or your waiver wire. A guy who's a sleeper in a 14-team league is probably irrelevant in an 8-team league, depending on your settings.
WEEK 1 SLEEPERS
- Ray Rice (vs KC) Rice barely qualifies as a sleeper. Rice was a legit 2nd RB in a lot of drafts as August ended. He's got a cake matchup, at home. Rice is a must-start in any format and could be a PPR monster this week, and this season.
- Fred Jackson (@ NE) Again, everybody knows Marshawn Lynch is suspended but not everybody handcuffed Jackson to Lynch. Jackson has a good history against the Patriots and the Bills will try to stress the run as their young offensive line tries to find itself. This won't be anything sexy, but 70 yards rushing, 60 yards recieving and a TD still comes out to 19 points. Again, bump up Jackson in a PPR league.
- Mike Bell (vs DET) Until further notice, last year's rule still stands: start EVERYBODY vs the Lions. So as long as Pierre Thomas is out, I would feel comfortable starting Bell in almost any league. Reggie Bush too, but I'd rather have Bell unless I'm in a PPR league. In a deep league I might still roll Bell in my flex even if Thomas plays. Pierre Thomas owners should handcuff Bell, like yesterday.
- Antonio Bryant (vs DAL) Who else is catching balls in Tampa? I'll believe Kellen Winslow when I see him out on the field, being productive, for 16 games. I don't have a lot of faith in Tampa's new 14-headed running back situation and the Cowboys should be up early. Let me be clear on this. I'm not an Antonio Bryant guy. I think last year was a fluke. I could be wrong. But this week, he's Nino and G-Money. I'd start him in most leagues this week as long as he starts.
- Derrick Mason (vs KC) Mason is always a PPR beast, but his lack of touchdowns hurts his value. Betcha he scores this week. Call it 85 yards and a TD? That means he's good to go in most leagues this week. In a PPR he should start most weeks.
- Leon Washington (@ HOU) Due to the presence of multiple decent running backs on the Jets roster, none of them will be extremely valuable, barring injury. But I really like Washington, especially early in the year. Sanchez should end up leaning on Dustin Keller and Leon Washington early as he acclimates to the NFL and his offense. But Leon just needs to bust 1 long one to have value and I think he's got that in him this week.
- Felix Jones (vs DAL) I deliberately avoid directing any of my league members to Get To The Chopper. When they know exactly what I think, it will kill my ability to trade. But I don't hide anything either. That being said I LOVE FELIX JONES. I expect Jones to finish the year as a top-20 back easily, with a crack at the top-12. Of course he has to stay healthy. But this kid is dyn-o-mite. For me he's basically an every week start. He will be for everybody else too, in about three weeks. So be ahead of the curve.
- John Carlson (vs STL) Again, how much of a sleeper is Carlson? Yes, he will be asked to block a bit more than expected. But we think he gets into the endzone against the Rams this week. 50 yards and a TD for a TE means start him in most leagues.
- Dustin Keller (@ HOU) Keller should be Sanchez's #1 target right now. He's looked great in the pre-season and came on the clap at the end of last season. He should be owned in all leagues that must start at least 1 TE.
- Zack Miller (vs SD) He might be all JaMarcus Russell really has right now. I'm not sure he finds the endzone, but I'm basically positive he catches 7+ balls. If the Raiders can get in the redzone, I think Miller can find paydirt. Smoke em if ya got em.
- Kevin Smith (@ NO) I guess this is more lineup advice than sleeper, but Smith should start in every format this week, and most weeks. He should be starting over any rookie RB, Reggie Bush, Addai, any Raiders RB, Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, any Patriots RB..... get the picture Chief?
- Anthony Gonzalez (vs JAX) He's pry a guy that you drafted as your WR3. I would have no problem starting him as your WR2 this week. He has a ridiculous ceiling and should get redzone looks. Start him over a Brandon Marshall, Santana Moss, Cotchery-type.
- Joe Flacco (vs KC) If you haven't figured it out, start your Ravens this week. Flacco might not be sexy (or Sexy-Rexy for that matter) but he's a nice, safe start this week with good upside. That's what you want for Week 1. Don't start somebody like Brett Favre, Matt Cassel or Kyle Orton over Flacco.
A quick note on busts. Some of these are just situations I would like to avoid but they might be unavoidable. It all depends on why a player is a potential bust. It could be because of matchup, injury, limited upside or any number of other things.
WEEK 1 BUSTS
- Larry Johnson (@ BAL) Do you really need me to explain this to you? I'd start Dwayne Bowe and avoid all other Chiefs like the herpes. Jamal Charles might might make for an interesting play in a really deep PPR league, but that's about it.
- Jamal Lewis (vs MIN) The Williams wall is playing. That's something that shouldn't be said for Jamal Lewis and your fantasy team. And this is not the week to jump on the James Davis bandwagon. I would avoid all Browns if possible (not IDP), including Braylon Edwards.
- All Jaguars WR's (@IND) When it comes to Jags WR's, I'll believe it when I see it. And I ain't seen shit. Troy Williamson? Really? Torry Holt looked so old last year. And I used to heart Torry Holt. There will be some value to be had here. Just don't go looking this week.
- Jonathan Stewart (vs PHI) I'm still scurred. Wait a week or two until you know what you're getting. It might not be a bad time to buy-low or sell-high on Stewart, depending if you own him and/or DeAngelo Williams.
- Kevin Walter (vs NYJ) It doesn't look like he'll play, but don't start him if he does. Easy enough?
- All Tampa Bay RB's (vs DAL) This split has officially killed their value, until the first injury strikes. It might actually be Graham with the value right now, if he's the goal line back. Ward might have a little value in a PPR, but I'd rather start Kevin Faulk this week.
- Any Cardinals RB's (vs SF) This is a case where you need to see how it all shakes out. I'd start Hightower if I had to choose this week, but avoid it if possible. We should have clarity soon, either with Beanie getting hurt again, or somebody stepping up and at least defining the roles.
- Matt Cassel (@ BAL) Don't
- Jake Delhomme (vs PHI) Do it
- Marc Bulger (@ SEA) To yourself
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Bat Hits - Tuesday, August 25th 2009
These are just some quick thoughts on various sports subjects. Sometimes there's links, sometime's there's not. Deal with it people. Lots of fantasy related stuff as normal but we'll bounce around sometimes. Hey, they're bat hits, not full-blow McClainiums.
Late.
- DeAngelo Williams is climbing. At this point it looks like even if Jonathan Stewart plays, he'll just be the #2 guy and the handcuff. Sure he'll probably get more than 100 carries but the Panthers are gonna run it a ton. I'd elevate Williams to the 2nd Tier of running backs right now. Which means I'd have no problem taking him #2 overall (behind AP) in standard leagues.
- Chad Ochocinco wants to be a boxer now. I wish we could just stop paying attention but this might actually be good. The opposing boxer might actually be able to shut him up. Of course if Ohco stinks out loud again this year I'm not sure that any non-Bengals fan will give a shit.
- Don't the Yankees look kind of brilliant now for not trading for Santana? Phil Hughes has solidified the bullpen allowing Joba to stay in the rotation with a sense of security. Melky Cabrera has been a solid role player this year. Robinson Cano has had a Renaissance and looks like the borderline All-Star he did 2 seasons ago. Meanwhile Santana is headed for surgery.
- The Phillies look just as brilliant for trading Cliff Lee instead of Roy Halladay. Halladay got rocked last night (just ask my Yahoo fantasy team) and Cliff Lee has been basically unhittable. Not to mention Cliff Lee will cost $7 million less next season. That's a lot of money for the Phillies. That's basically enough for the other back of the rotation starter they need, or some bullpen help.
- Got a bad feeling about Brandon Inge. The situation with his knee just seems to be getting worse. Beside, you can replace the production he's given you since the All-Star break with almost any scrub catcher off of the wire in most leagues.
- I don't know if I'm keeping Johan Santana in any league this year. Maybe in a deep dynasty league, but be very, very afraid.
- Glenn Coffee is going to be the hot rookie name real soon. He might be a sneaky pickup for Frank Gore owners. Not only will he be the handcuff but he might be useful enough to start with Gore as a bye-week fill in when the matchup is right.
- Felix Jones and Leon Washington are probably going to be regular flex plays this season. Ironically, I don't think either one of them is actually the handcuff to have on that team.
- Watch out for Greg Jones, Touchdown Vulture in Jacksonville.
- Again, don't even mess with a New England running back except in deep leagues. Kevin Faulk is draftable in most PPR leagues as a RB3/RB4.
- Seattle looks like a mess too. The scary part is they are going to run the ball a lot. But they now have one over-the-hill running back and one running back who lacks NFL talent. Remember the name Justin Forsett. But if Walter Jones were to miss the season I would avoid all Seattle running backs in all but the deepest of leagues.
- Most NFL teams have something to offer fantasy owners. The Cleveland Browns might be the exception. There will be some IDP value on their defense, but their offense is downright doo-doo. It's kind of sad. They should have an above-average offensive line and Braylon Edwards has elite talent. But neither QB looks ready to do anything and their RB situation makes Seattle's look organized.
- You might want to temper your expectations for Drew Brees just a touch. Don't get me wrong, I love me the Drew Brees but he just lost his Pro Bowl left tackle to surgery for the dreaded sports hernia. He could miss the first month of the season. Brees is still in that elite tier, but this is just one more reason to avoid over-drafting a QB this year.
- I'd continue to avoid T.O. like the Paris Hilton Parasite. He's already got a nagging injury AKA his built-in excuse should something go wrong. If that Bills' offensive line doesn't hold together, Buffalo might get to see the real T.O. earlier than scheduled.
- Watch out for the injury to Nate Washington. He was running red-hot all camp and pre-season and now he's out until Week 1 at the earliest. Gauge the seriousness of the injury. If it looks like their just being cautious try to scoop him up in the draft a round or two later than you could've done recently.
- Grab Eddie Royal in all formats. Avoid Brandon Marshall in all formats. Keep an eye on Jabar Gaffney too. It's hard to get excited about Denver's passing game without Cutler or Marshall but their defense is so reprehensible that they'll be forced to pass constantly. This could also increase Knowshon Moreno's value in PPR leagues. Ditto Tony Scheffler who's value should rise as Marshall's falls.
Late.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Fantasy Football Preview 2009 - Auction Draft Strategy
Auction drafts are becoming the new "hot" format in fantasy football. For those of you who've never done an auction draft it's just like it sounds. Everybody (in a non-keeper league) starts with the same amount of money and same number of roster spots to fill. Each team takes turns nominating players to bid on and you can bid on whoever you have money/roster spots for. All of the majors (ESPN, FOX, CBS, Yahoo) offer free mock draft services now. I recommend doing a couple before you do your cash league auction draft. Even if you've done auctions before, it never hurts to do a mock.
So here are a few tips that I've picked up over the years regarding mock drafts.
So here are a few tips that I've picked up over the years regarding mock drafts.
- Early in the draft, do not nominate players you want. Make a list up of players you don't want on your team and place them up for bid. This will deplete the amount of cash other teams have available to bid against you while preserving the players you want to bid on. This becomes more difficult to do later in the draft but early on it will work like a charm.
- In the middle of an auction draft don't be afraid to throw the top ranked kicker or team defense out there for bidding. By doing this you're either going to get the top ranked kicker or team defense for $1 or you're going to force another team to spend more than $1 on a kicker or team defense. Don't be that guy. The only exception is in leagues where team defense score a lot of points and include team special teams.
- You have a budget, don't be afraid to spend it. In an auction draft you can actually go into the draft with a lineup in mind because you can target specific players much easier than in a snake draft. There's a lot of cheat sheets out there with auction draft money values for each player. Look at your roster and the projected cost for players you want. You should be able to land at least 75% of your targets if you plan correctly.
- It's not always the best idea to wait. One auction draft strategy is to avoid spending much money until most of the other teams have already spent a bunch. By doing this you will end up with more depth than anybody else, but more than likely you will have one of the weaker starting lineups. Pay for your starters and find value buys to fill out your bench.
- Value is a variable thing as the draft proceeds. How much value a player has to you will depend on your team needs, your remaining budget and how far below your predicted value you can get a player for. Sometimes you should take a player you're not wild about if he fills a need for you and your getting a great deal on him. If you're getting a $12 RB for $3 and you don't have any RB depth you need to do that. He'll give you depth and provide some upside for a possible later trade.
- You need to know more about the other owners during an auction draft than a snake draft. Knowing their favorite players, favorite teams and fantasy football history is a big plus. If you know your buddy wants Adrian Peterson no matter what, don't be afraid to bid him up. Odds are you can go at least $10 over your projected price and your buddy will go higher.
- Pay close attention to the RB's who REALLY require handcuffs. If an owner spends $32 on Brian Westbrook early, he NEEDS to get LeSean McCoy. So don't be afraid to bid him up. The other owner is basically forced to keep going. Should you actually win McCoy you're going to have a ton of leverage on the Westbrook owner in a trade. If you need a handcuff either try to wait until teams have less money at the end of the draft or nominate the player yourself with a substantial opening bid. This will forces owners to make an immediate decision about how far they are willing to go when trying to bid you up.
- One newer strategy I've been working on is basically a variant on a re-raise in poker. In auction drafts, situations often occur when multiple owners bid up a player one dollar at a time. This makes it difficult to tell which owners are genuinely interested and which owners are just bidding the price up. If a player you want is in such a situation, try a re-raise. For instance say you want this player who is projected to go for $20. Somebody else nominates him for $1 and the bidding begins. Three or four different owners start bidding one dollar at a time and pretty soon it's at $10. In a re-raise, what you do here is raise it to somewhere around $15-$17 dollars. By doing this you're either going to get the player you want for less value or you're going to find out what owners are really interested. Sometimes other owners who actually want this player will "fold" because they're afraid you will "raise the pot too much". Not the best analogy in the world but you should be able to get the picture.
- One note about auction drafts in keeper leagues. Do as much research as you can by talking to other owners in order to try to figure out who they are keeping. This will allow you to plan your keepers better because you should have an idea of what players will be available in the draft .Who you keep should be based on what is available and how much your keepers will cost you. For instance, if you can keep Steve Slaton for $5 or Adrian Peterson for $58, which one do you think will give you more value? It's Slaton, and it's not close. Also, don't be afraid to trade keepers if you have guys you don't want to keep but you feel are too valuable to just throw back.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
The Obligatory Brett Favre Mention
Yup, Brett Favre is back. He officially signed with the Vikings today. Contract is said to be worth between $10-$12 million. Not bad for one year for an old guy. What does this really mean? People far more "qualified" then me are going kill a couple of virtual forests with all of their words on this subject. So we'll just take a quick peek at the actual implications and the fantasy implications
IN REALITY
Does this really change how you view the Vikings? Is Favre really known for his game management? The Vikings don't have any need to throw the ball all over. They just need to keep defenses honest to give AP and even Chester Taylor room to operate. If anything, Favre is turnover-prone, period. He has been for years, and why would that change?
Favre himself has questioned his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. How should that inspire confidence in anybody else? The Vikings will need Favre the most in November, December and hopefully January. We all know that Favre was hurt last season but he still completely self-destructed. You just get the feeling that he didn't want to go out like that. Who would? But will his hubris come back to haunt him and the Vikings. This season is now all about Brett Favre. Again. Is that really what the Vikings need?
At the end of the day, the Vikings are the favorite in the NFC North. They were before they signed Favre. They're the defending division champs. They won the division last year with Gus Frerotte and Tavaris Jackson. Why shouldn't they win it again? The Lions aren't a threat at this point. The Packers have a done of problems with their conversion to a 3-4 defense. The Bears have questions at every position except QB, RB and LB. The Vikings are pretty solid as a team and should be the favorite.
IN FANTASY
Visanthe Shiancoe just took a bump up. He was a borderline top-10 TE and he probably just moved into top-8 territory. Favre loves him the TE and Shiancoe looked great so far in the pre-season. Plus the Vikings have a good o-line so Shiancoe won't be asked to block more than necessary.
Bernard Berrian also should be happy. I don't know if this will necessarily increase his catches or targets but his already stellar YPC should improve as should his TD number. Leagues that award bonuses for 50+ yard TD's should take notice. Berrian is still really a WR3 but he could be a nice WR2 when the matchup is right.
Percy Harvin has already seen his fantasy stock soar. Any leagues that count return yards and scores should bump Harvin way up their boards. As the Vikings try to work Favre in and keep him fresh you could concievealby see Harvin in the backfield both as a rusher and as a "Wildcat" QB with Tavaris Jackson split out wide. Favre probably doesn't effect his value a ton but if Harvin is on the field as a third WR I have more faith in Favre finding him as the 3rd or 4th read in a play than I did in Jackson or Rosenfels.
Brett Favre himself probably won't find his way onto many of my fantasy teams. His main value will be that he's Brett Favre. Somebody will blow a mid-round pick to draft him as their QB1. That will allow a better QB to drop lower than he should, and you should be ready to take advantage. As for Favre, he's a decent matchup play and just an average QB2. There is a chance he starts out hot. If you have him and he does start hot, SELL HIGH. As soon as he strings two good starts together, move him. Look at how he finished last season. Is there really a reason to think that this year will be any different?
If Sidney Rice or Bobby Wade steps up and takes control as the second WR, they may end up having more value with Favre than they would've otherwise had. That still doesn't make them draftable in 10 team leagues. But in 12-team leagues or larger or even 10-team PPR leagues with deep benches they might be worth a late-round flier.
IN REALITY
Does this really change how you view the Vikings? Is Favre really known for his game management? The Vikings don't have any need to throw the ball all over. They just need to keep defenses honest to give AP and even Chester Taylor room to operate. If anything, Favre is turnover-prone, period. He has been for years, and why would that change?
Favre himself has questioned his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. How should that inspire confidence in anybody else? The Vikings will need Favre the most in November, December and hopefully January. We all know that Favre was hurt last season but he still completely self-destructed. You just get the feeling that he didn't want to go out like that. Who would? But will his hubris come back to haunt him and the Vikings. This season is now all about Brett Favre. Again. Is that really what the Vikings need?
At the end of the day, the Vikings are the favorite in the NFC North. They were before they signed Favre. They're the defending division champs. They won the division last year with Gus Frerotte and Tavaris Jackson. Why shouldn't they win it again? The Lions aren't a threat at this point. The Packers have a done of problems with their conversion to a 3-4 defense. The Bears have questions at every position except QB, RB and LB. The Vikings are pretty solid as a team and should be the favorite.
IN FANTASY
Visanthe Shiancoe just took a bump up. He was a borderline top-10 TE and he probably just moved into top-8 territory. Favre loves him the TE and Shiancoe looked great so far in the pre-season. Plus the Vikings have a good o-line so Shiancoe won't be asked to block more than necessary.
Bernard Berrian also should be happy. I don't know if this will necessarily increase his catches or targets but his already stellar YPC should improve as should his TD number. Leagues that award bonuses for 50+ yard TD's should take notice. Berrian is still really a WR3 but he could be a nice WR2 when the matchup is right.
Percy Harvin has already seen his fantasy stock soar. Any leagues that count return yards and scores should bump Harvin way up their boards. As the Vikings try to work Favre in and keep him fresh you could concievealby see Harvin in the backfield both as a rusher and as a "Wildcat" QB with Tavaris Jackson split out wide. Favre probably doesn't effect his value a ton but if Harvin is on the field as a third WR I have more faith in Favre finding him as the 3rd or 4th read in a play than I did in Jackson or Rosenfels.
Brett Favre himself probably won't find his way onto many of my fantasy teams. His main value will be that he's Brett Favre. Somebody will blow a mid-round pick to draft him as their QB1. That will allow a better QB to drop lower than he should, and you should be ready to take advantage. As for Favre, he's a decent matchup play and just an average QB2. There is a chance he starts out hot. If you have him and he does start hot, SELL HIGH. As soon as he strings two good starts together, move him. Look at how he finished last season. Is there really a reason to think that this year will be any different?
If Sidney Rice or Bobby Wade steps up and takes control as the second WR, they may end up having more value with Favre than they would've otherwise had. That still doesn't make them draftable in 10 team leagues. But in 12-team leagues or larger or even 10-team PPR leagues with deep benches they might be worth a late-round flier.
Fantasy Football 2009 Preview - Team RB Capsules (Part 2)
Here's PART 2 of our Team RB Capsules. These are snapshots of each teams' RB situation designed to help you plan for your fantasy football draft this year. As always feedback is welcome. Click here for PART 1.
-It really could end up being a mess in Seattle. The good news is new coach Jim Mora Jr. likes to run the football. And if Walter Jones is fairly healthy the Seahawks should have a decent line. The real question is who is going to get the football? This looks like a really murky timeshare. Right now it looks like Julius Jones will start and TJ Duckett will get the short yardage and goal line carries. The listed 3rd string RB right now is Justin Forsett who some will remember as a pre-season darling for the Colts last year. So he does have some ability, file that away for the inevitable Julius Jones injury. Right now I really wouldn't draft any of these backs. Duckett will have more value in a TD only league, Jones will have slightly more value (than the usual no value) in a PPR league. I would draft quite a few #2 RB's before I would take a flier on these guys.
-Yet another murky situation lurks in Kansas City. The only good news is the Chiefs should be pretty lousy. Their defense will be sub-par yet again and they don't have much on offense outside of Dwayne Bowe. So you can just temper your expectations for Chiefs' RB's. That being said, which one do you want, Jamaal Charles or Larry Johnson? In a PPR it's Charles, in a TD-only league it's Johnson. Unfortunately, that's about as cut and dry as it gets. Best guess? This is about a 50-50 timeshare. Johnson will get the goal line looks and 4th quarter carries if the Chiefs somehow have a lead. When the Chiefs are trailing you will see a lot of Charles on the field because of his ability to catch the ball. Charles will probably be more consistent week-to-week but Johnson could have the occasional 2-TD game. Should Johnson get hurt, Charles might get a big bump up though.
-Miami might not be as clear a situation as you would think. Instinctively you would think that Ronnie Brown should be in line for a good season. Not to say he isn't. But is he a rock-sold #2 fantasy RB? Maybe. Good news, he is another year removed from the ACL tear, the Dolphins have a good run-blocking line and they will be a run first team. Bad news, Ricky Williams is still around and will get carries (just not enough to be anything more than a handcuff in all but very deep leagues), a 3rd RB (Patrick Cobbs) will see some time on the field on passing downs and Ronnie Brown will no longer be the "QB" in Miami's Wildcat formation. Ronnie Brown's total touch downs for the last 4 seasons? 5,5,5 and 10 last year. But subtract that first game against New England where the Patriots got blindsided when the Dolphins debuted the Wildcat. That's 4 TD's off. So that's only 6 TD's the rest of the year. Brown looks like a matchups play only unless he is getting 80%+ of the carries.
-Does anybody not love Matt Forte? If not you should. He's probably the #1 pick in a PPR league this year. Seriously. The Bears are going to run the football a ton. They might not pass that effectively but Cutler will throw downfield enough to open things up for Forte more than last year. The surprising note here? Kevin Jones will have value this year. He will be one of the 10 most important handcuffs and he will actually end up with a bit of value on his own, slightly more in a PPR. In short, if you draft Forte you're drafting Jones. If you don't have Forte, Jones makes for an interesting late round flier, for his upside in the case of a Forte injury and for his trade value to the Forte owner in your league.
-The Lions RB situation has been one of the most low-key in the league. And this will work out for you. Kevin Smith has absolutely crazy upside, and a RB job all to himself. Repeat, this DOES NOT look like a timeshare. Maurice Morris will see some 3rd down work and give Smith the occasional breather, but that's about it. The only downside Smith has is the Lions are still the Lions and their defense should be terrible. This might limit Smith's carries somewhat but he's very effective at catching the ball so he should be on the field, regardless. Smith is a rock-solid 2nd round pick and a low end RB1 who you might be able to steal in Round 3 or 4.
-Mark Sanchez is the big story for the New York Jets right now. They have talent at RB, but that's not the story. Thomas Jones is turning 31, wants a new deal and has been the subject of trade rumors. Leon Washington is a dynamic player who wants to be paid like a starting RB. Shonn Greene is the rookie RB the Jets moved up in the draft for. Which RB do you want? It probably depends on your league. If you league is a PPR and/or counts return yards, Washington is probably your guy to target, especially considering how much later you can get him compared to Thomas Jones. In a a keeper league Shonn Greene needs to be on your radar because he will be the Jets' starting RB sooner than later. In a TD-only league I still think it's Jones. The good news is the Jets are going to run the ball. A lot. It's Coach Ryan's style, plus he's going to try to insulate Sanchez as much as possible. In other words, they're all going to have some value. Jones still probably has the most upside as he will start and see most of the goal line carries. The rumor de-jour has been that Greene might be the 4th quarter slash burn out the clock back. I'm not sure if I buy it yet, but Greene is a must-have handcuff for Jones owners. In a 10-team standard league I would avoid Jones until at least Round 4. Ideally he's your RB3 this year, but with high-end RB2 upside.
-What to do with the Cowboys? Rumors have been rampant about Jones, Barber and Choice. Let's make it easy. Marion Barber is a RB1 this year still. He will score, get carries and even catch the ball. Take him over Portis. If you pick at the end of the first round, you could do much, much worse than Barber. Felix Jones will have great value in any league that counts return yardage and/or is a PPR. He'll make an excellent bye-week fill-in and will be a matchups guy. Tashard Choice is the handcuff you need to have for Barber. Should something happen to Barber, Choice would become the starter with Jones staying in his complimentary role. This makes Choice a great upside/trade value guy to target late in your draft, especially in a larger league.
-Is this a bounce-back year for Ryan Grant? Let somebody else find out. The Packers can throw the hell out of the ball and there's no reason for them to throw less. Especially considering that they're having a rough transition to a 3-4 defense and will probably play from behind a lot more than they'll be playing with a lead. Grant just doesn't catch the ball enough and hasn't shown much breakaway ability in recent memory. DeShawn Wynn is getting a lot of ink about possibly being the backup or handcuff to Grant as opposed to Brandon Jackson but I don't know if it really matters. Should Grant go down or lose his job, it's pretty much a timeshare anyway. In most leagues, you just want the guy who will get the ball in the red zone and at the goal line. Grant actually posted better numbers than you would think last season but he just doesn't seem to be set up real well for success this season. Don't target his early but if you can draft him in Round 5 or later as a low end RB2 or ideally a high end RB3 he shouldn't hurt you and will offer some decent upside as a possible low-end RB1 if everything fell perfectly for him.
-Which Frank Gore are you going to get this year? You're going to get the one who touches to ball. A lot. Mike Singletary is going to run the rock a ton. Seriously, think about who the Niners are going to start at QB. If Gore stays healthy he should be a top-10 fantasy RB this year, no questions asked, top-5 in a PPR. Is rookie Glenn Coffee going to get some carries? Absolutely. Is that going to hurt Gore? Absolutely not. If anything hopefully a bit of a timeshare should help Gore stay fresh and avoid nagging injuries. But that does make Coffee a pretty important handcuff for Gore owners. It doesn't look like Coffee will have much value on his own, unless he ends up being the designated goal line back.
-The Raiders organization is a disaster. The good news is, the only thing they really can do is run the ball. Of course it's a messed up timeshare but were you really expecting something else? The guy who will score the most fantasy points (provided everybody is healthy) is Darren McFadden. He's worth a high pick in a keeper league. In most leagues he should be drafted as a high-end RB3 or low-end RB2. But there will probably be somebody in your league that takes McFadden in Round 2 or 3. That's a bit too high. Remember, the Raiders will run the ball a ton, but they will also be trailing in more games than they will be leading. So like McFadden, just don't take him as your RB1 right now. The guy who will see the second most touches should be Mike Bush. In fact, should the Raiders have a 4th quarter lead, it will probably be Bush or Fargas on the field. I think Fargas is really just a handcuff here, he would have some value should Bush or McFadden get hurt. And both of them do have a history of getting hurt. Should Bush be traded to a team where he could start, he could be an absolute monster.
-The Steelers are a team that likes to run the football. The question is, who is going to run it? Aren't most people just done with Willie Parker at this point? I know I am. The only problem is that Parker might actually make for a decent draft pick if you get him late. Should he start the year like gang-busters and stay healthy, Parker could be a rock-solid RB2. But I doubt it. He gets hurt, doesn't score TD's and doesn't catch the ball. So who else is there? Rashard Mendenhall should be the guy. But he's gotten hurt, and when he's been on the field, he really hasn't accomplished squat. Could Mwelde Moore have some value? It looks like it. Hell, Gary Russell was the TD guy last year, that's more that Willie Parker can say. Still, if you can get Parker in Round 7 or later it might end up being huge for you. Just make sure you handcuff him to Mendenhall and monitor how many looks Moore gets.
-You think you should love Matt Forte? Love Pierre Thomas. He will be the RB for the Saints. He will outscore Reggie Bush. Sure in a PPR league, Bush is going to have some value. But Thomas has always shown that he can be an outstanding RB whenever he's gotten the chance. And he's going to get many, many chances this year. Thomas could end up being a low-end RB1. Really. Round 2 is not too early to take him. I would avoid Bush in a non-PPR but I actually think that he's the handcuff for Thomas, not the other way around. Draft Pierre Thomas. That's all there is to it.
-Do you really want anything to do with Cedric Benson? The only good news is that he will remain the starting RB for the Bengals, because for them he's Nino and G-Money (all they got). Brian Leonard had some buzz coming out of Rutgers but was a bust when given the chance to start for an injured Steven Jackson. Factor in the Bengals' lousy defense and their ability to throw the ball and it just doesn't look like any Bengals RB will be in much of a position to succeed. Any starting RB has value but Benson probably has less value than any starting RB not named Julius Jones.
-Derrick Ward is the hot name right now at RB for the Bucs. And he's going to get his carries. But this has all the makings of a 50/50 timeshare. It looks like Ward will see the work on passing downs and Graham will get the goal line carries and they'll most likely split anything else. That makes them both lower-end RB3's and matchup starts. But should one of them get hurt, the other should really increase in value. They're not really true handcuffs, nor do I think you could start both of them at once in fantasy, unless the matchup was perfect. Throw in the Bucs questions at QB, WR and on D and think they're going to struggle to run the ball a lot. Graham might be the better value as he's listed as the starter, is the returning starter and is going several rounds later than Ward. Don't get caught up in Ward's stats from the last 2 seasons.
-Ray Rice will be that starting RB for the Ravens. Willis McGahee is his handcuff and will see some carries regardless. The big question here is what role LeRon McClain plays. It looks like he will spend the majority of his time at fullback. If this is true it's a pretty big bump in value for Rice and even McGahee. Coach Harbaugh will most likely ride the hot hand so if you want Rice I would handcuff him to McGahee. LeRon McClain is a risky draft pick, wait and see if any news on him comes out before wasting anything but a late-round pick on him.
-Jamal Lewis is still the starting RB for the Browns. How long that lasts, nobody knows. This looks like it will be a timeshare with Jerome Harrison from jump street. And don't discount Harrison. He's flashed some ability when given the ball. Mangini likes to run the ball and has no allegiance to either back. Look for Lewis to get the goal line carries and possibly the 4th quarter, run out the clock work, if there is any. Harrison will probably get more total touches and has a great deal more big play potential.
-It really could end up being a mess in Seattle. The good news is new coach Jim Mora Jr. likes to run the football. And if Walter Jones is fairly healthy the Seahawks should have a decent line. The real question is who is going to get the football? This looks like a really murky timeshare. Right now it looks like Julius Jones will start and TJ Duckett will get the short yardage and goal line carries. The listed 3rd string RB right now is Justin Forsett who some will remember as a pre-season darling for the Colts last year. So he does have some ability, file that away for the inevitable Julius Jones injury. Right now I really wouldn't draft any of these backs. Duckett will have more value in a TD only league, Jones will have slightly more value (than the usual no value) in a PPR league. I would draft quite a few #2 RB's before I would take a flier on these guys.
-Yet another murky situation lurks in Kansas City. The only good news is the Chiefs should be pretty lousy. Their defense will be sub-par yet again and they don't have much on offense outside of Dwayne Bowe. So you can just temper your expectations for Chiefs' RB's. That being said, which one do you want, Jamaal Charles or Larry Johnson? In a PPR it's Charles, in a TD-only league it's Johnson. Unfortunately, that's about as cut and dry as it gets. Best guess? This is about a 50-50 timeshare. Johnson will get the goal line looks and 4th quarter carries if the Chiefs somehow have a lead. When the Chiefs are trailing you will see a lot of Charles on the field because of his ability to catch the ball. Charles will probably be more consistent week-to-week but Johnson could have the occasional 2-TD game. Should Johnson get hurt, Charles might get a big bump up though.
-Miami might not be as clear a situation as you would think. Instinctively you would think that Ronnie Brown should be in line for a good season. Not to say he isn't. But is he a rock-sold #2 fantasy RB? Maybe. Good news, he is another year removed from the ACL tear, the Dolphins have a good run-blocking line and they will be a run first team. Bad news, Ricky Williams is still around and will get carries (just not enough to be anything more than a handcuff in all but very deep leagues), a 3rd RB (Patrick Cobbs) will see some time on the field on passing downs and Ronnie Brown will no longer be the "QB" in Miami's Wildcat formation. Ronnie Brown's total touch downs for the last 4 seasons? 5,5,5 and 10 last year. But subtract that first game against New England where the Patriots got blindsided when the Dolphins debuted the Wildcat. That's 4 TD's off. So that's only 6 TD's the rest of the year. Brown looks like a matchups play only unless he is getting 80%+ of the carries.
-Does anybody not love Matt Forte? If not you should. He's probably the #1 pick in a PPR league this year. Seriously. The Bears are going to run the football a ton. They might not pass that effectively but Cutler will throw downfield enough to open things up for Forte more than last year. The surprising note here? Kevin Jones will have value this year. He will be one of the 10 most important handcuffs and he will actually end up with a bit of value on his own, slightly more in a PPR. In short, if you draft Forte you're drafting Jones. If you don't have Forte, Jones makes for an interesting late round flier, for his upside in the case of a Forte injury and for his trade value to the Forte owner in your league.
-The Lions RB situation has been one of the most low-key in the league. And this will work out for you. Kevin Smith has absolutely crazy upside, and a RB job all to himself. Repeat, this DOES NOT look like a timeshare. Maurice Morris will see some 3rd down work and give Smith the occasional breather, but that's about it. The only downside Smith has is the Lions are still the Lions and their defense should be terrible. This might limit Smith's carries somewhat but he's very effective at catching the ball so he should be on the field, regardless. Smith is a rock-solid 2nd round pick and a low end RB1 who you might be able to steal in Round 3 or 4.
-Mark Sanchez is the big story for the New York Jets right now. They have talent at RB, but that's not the story. Thomas Jones is turning 31, wants a new deal and has been the subject of trade rumors. Leon Washington is a dynamic player who wants to be paid like a starting RB. Shonn Greene is the rookie RB the Jets moved up in the draft for. Which RB do you want? It probably depends on your league. If you league is a PPR and/or counts return yards, Washington is probably your guy to target, especially considering how much later you can get him compared to Thomas Jones. In a a keeper league Shonn Greene needs to be on your radar because he will be the Jets' starting RB sooner than later. In a TD-only league I still think it's Jones. The good news is the Jets are going to run the ball. A lot. It's Coach Ryan's style, plus he's going to try to insulate Sanchez as much as possible. In other words, they're all going to have some value. Jones still probably has the most upside as he will start and see most of the goal line carries. The rumor de-jour has been that Greene might be the 4th quarter slash burn out the clock back. I'm not sure if I buy it yet, but Greene is a must-have handcuff for Jones owners. In a 10-team standard league I would avoid Jones until at least Round 4. Ideally he's your RB3 this year, but with high-end RB2 upside.
-What to do with the Cowboys? Rumors have been rampant about Jones, Barber and Choice. Let's make it easy. Marion Barber is a RB1 this year still. He will score, get carries and even catch the ball. Take him over Portis. If you pick at the end of the first round, you could do much, much worse than Barber. Felix Jones will have great value in any league that counts return yardage and/or is a PPR. He'll make an excellent bye-week fill-in and will be a matchups guy. Tashard Choice is the handcuff you need to have for Barber. Should something happen to Barber, Choice would become the starter with Jones staying in his complimentary role. This makes Choice a great upside/trade value guy to target late in your draft, especially in a larger league.
-Is this a bounce-back year for Ryan Grant? Let somebody else find out. The Packers can throw the hell out of the ball and there's no reason for them to throw less. Especially considering that they're having a rough transition to a 3-4 defense and will probably play from behind a lot more than they'll be playing with a lead. Grant just doesn't catch the ball enough and hasn't shown much breakaway ability in recent memory. DeShawn Wynn is getting a lot of ink about possibly being the backup or handcuff to Grant as opposed to Brandon Jackson but I don't know if it really matters. Should Grant go down or lose his job, it's pretty much a timeshare anyway. In most leagues, you just want the guy who will get the ball in the red zone and at the goal line. Grant actually posted better numbers than you would think last season but he just doesn't seem to be set up real well for success this season. Don't target his early but if you can draft him in Round 5 or later as a low end RB2 or ideally a high end RB3 he shouldn't hurt you and will offer some decent upside as a possible low-end RB1 if everything fell perfectly for him.
-Which Frank Gore are you going to get this year? You're going to get the one who touches to ball. A lot. Mike Singletary is going to run the rock a ton. Seriously, think about who the Niners are going to start at QB. If Gore stays healthy he should be a top-10 fantasy RB this year, no questions asked, top-5 in a PPR. Is rookie Glenn Coffee going to get some carries? Absolutely. Is that going to hurt Gore? Absolutely not. If anything hopefully a bit of a timeshare should help Gore stay fresh and avoid nagging injuries. But that does make Coffee a pretty important handcuff for Gore owners. It doesn't look like Coffee will have much value on his own, unless he ends up being the designated goal line back.
-The Raiders organization is a disaster. The good news is, the only thing they really can do is run the ball. Of course it's a messed up timeshare but were you really expecting something else? The guy who will score the most fantasy points (provided everybody is healthy) is Darren McFadden. He's worth a high pick in a keeper league. In most leagues he should be drafted as a high-end RB3 or low-end RB2. But there will probably be somebody in your league that takes McFadden in Round 2 or 3. That's a bit too high. Remember, the Raiders will run the ball a ton, but they will also be trailing in more games than they will be leading. So like McFadden, just don't take him as your RB1 right now. The guy who will see the second most touches should be Mike Bush. In fact, should the Raiders have a 4th quarter lead, it will probably be Bush or Fargas on the field. I think Fargas is really just a handcuff here, he would have some value should Bush or McFadden get hurt. And both of them do have a history of getting hurt. Should Bush be traded to a team where he could start, he could be an absolute monster.
-The Steelers are a team that likes to run the football. The question is, who is going to run it? Aren't most people just done with Willie Parker at this point? I know I am. The only problem is that Parker might actually make for a decent draft pick if you get him late. Should he start the year like gang-busters and stay healthy, Parker could be a rock-solid RB2. But I doubt it. He gets hurt, doesn't score TD's and doesn't catch the ball. So who else is there? Rashard Mendenhall should be the guy. But he's gotten hurt, and when he's been on the field, he really hasn't accomplished squat. Could Mwelde Moore have some value? It looks like it. Hell, Gary Russell was the TD guy last year, that's more that Willie Parker can say. Still, if you can get Parker in Round 7 or later it might end up being huge for you. Just make sure you handcuff him to Mendenhall and monitor how many looks Moore gets.
-You think you should love Matt Forte? Love Pierre Thomas. He will be the RB for the Saints. He will outscore Reggie Bush. Sure in a PPR league, Bush is going to have some value. But Thomas has always shown that he can be an outstanding RB whenever he's gotten the chance. And he's going to get many, many chances this year. Thomas could end up being a low-end RB1. Really. Round 2 is not too early to take him. I would avoid Bush in a non-PPR but I actually think that he's the handcuff for Thomas, not the other way around. Draft Pierre Thomas. That's all there is to it.
-Do you really want anything to do with Cedric Benson? The only good news is that he will remain the starting RB for the Bengals, because for them he's Nino and G-Money (all they got). Brian Leonard had some buzz coming out of Rutgers but was a bust when given the chance to start for an injured Steven Jackson. Factor in the Bengals' lousy defense and their ability to throw the ball and it just doesn't look like any Bengals RB will be in much of a position to succeed. Any starting RB has value but Benson probably has less value than any starting RB not named Julius Jones.
-Derrick Ward is the hot name right now at RB for the Bucs. And he's going to get his carries. But this has all the makings of a 50/50 timeshare. It looks like Ward will see the work on passing downs and Graham will get the goal line carries and they'll most likely split anything else. That makes them both lower-end RB3's and matchup starts. But should one of them get hurt, the other should really increase in value. They're not really true handcuffs, nor do I think you could start both of them at once in fantasy, unless the matchup was perfect. Throw in the Bucs questions at QB, WR and on D and think they're going to struggle to run the ball a lot. Graham might be the better value as he's listed as the starter, is the returning starter and is going several rounds later than Ward. Don't get caught up in Ward's stats from the last 2 seasons.
-Ray Rice will be that starting RB for the Ravens. Willis McGahee is his handcuff and will see some carries regardless. The big question here is what role LeRon McClain plays. It looks like he will spend the majority of his time at fullback. If this is true it's a pretty big bump in value for Rice and even McGahee. Coach Harbaugh will most likely ride the hot hand so if you want Rice I would handcuff him to McGahee. LeRon McClain is a risky draft pick, wait and see if any news on him comes out before wasting anything but a late-round pick on him.
-Jamal Lewis is still the starting RB for the Browns. How long that lasts, nobody knows. This looks like it will be a timeshare with Jerome Harrison from jump street. And don't discount Harrison. He's flashed some ability when given the ball. Mangini likes to run the ball and has no allegiance to either back. Look for Lewis to get the goal line carries and possibly the 4th quarter, run out the clock work, if there is any. Harrison will probably get more total touches and has a great deal more big play potential.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Fantasy Football 2009 Preview - Team RB Capsules (Part 1)
Here's PART 1 of our Team RB Capsules. These are snapshots of each teams' RB situation designed to help you plan for your fantasy football draft this year. As always feedback is welcome. PART 2 will be up shortly.
-It's a good idea to own both Titans backs. This is one of the few cases where your handcuff (LenDale White) is a productive player regardless. White and Johnson can easily be started together in fantasy when the match-ups are right. Should Johnson get injured White would be the starter but most likely would lose passing-downs work to another back. Still his value would increase with the Johnson injury, possibly into top-12 RB territory, easy.
-You don't want the starting RB for the Colts, you want "The Closer". Whichever back is going to get the ball in the second half is the back you want. Think Rhodes last year and Addai before that. That's going to be the RB who gets the most carries and probably overall touches. Because of the timeshare and their style it's not likely that the Colts will provide a top-15 RB this season. But it wouldn't surprise me if one of the backs gained the bigger piece of the timeshare and became very fantasy relevant in November/December.
-Not sure entirely what to make of the Cardinals mess at RB. What I do know is that Hightower is probably going to start. Beanie Wells is injury prone. Hightower proved to be a good goal line back last year. In other words, it's questionable how much value Beanie will have barring injury. To further muddy the waters, Hightower and Wells are similar, neither is going to be much of threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. So that means that there most likely will be a 3rd back involved (JJ Arrington last year) which will take carries from Hightower and Wells. I'd draft Hightower over wells (non-keeper) and avoid Arizona RB's until the later rounds unless you're desperate.
-Don't sleep on the Buffalo RB situation. Fred Jackson is going to start the first 3 games. And he's probably going to be pretty good. He's always gotten it done when given the chance. I've always been a Marshawn Lynch guy but I think this is a straight timeshare, maybe 60-40 in favor of Lynch but close. Lynch will probably get the goal line work but I think the Bills are going to pass a ton this year. Rumor has it they are going to use a no-huddle as a base offense. Jackson is a 100% must-have handcuff for Lynch owners and he will be productive in his own right. I would bump of the value of both Buffalo RB's slightly in a PPR league.
-Don't mess with New England RB's. If Sammy Morris is cut that would greatly improve Fred Taylor's value and probably Maroney too. But I'm done with Maroney. Plus Kevin Faulk is going to take away almost all of the passing downs work as well as a bunch of touches around the goal line and in the redzone. In a PPR league I would grab Faulk in the latter stages of the draft. There will be weeks when a New England RB goes off. You just have to guess the right week and the right RB.
-It's Knowshon Moreno time in Denver. They passed up filling a bunch of other glaring holes to draft Moreno in Denver. And he's going to get the rock. A lot. I don't even know if there's a clear-cut handcuff to have here. Buckhalter and Jordan might get some touches, but probably not enough to give them much value, unless one of them puts a stranglehold on the goal line back role. Take Knowshon high. In a 10-team (non-keeper, non-PPR) league whenever Pierre Thomas comes off of the board, it's time to take Knowshon. I can't see him lasting past the fourth round. And don't forget, Denver has one of the best o-lines in the league. Moreno has top-10 RB potential, right now.
-Definitely a mess at RB in Philly right now. I think you have to consider Westbrook in your draft (non-PPR) whenever LT comes off of the board. Probably early-to-mid 2nd round. If he's healthy he will again be a top-5 RB so there's value to be had here. In a PPR Westbrook is still a top-7 pick. Be warned, if you take Westbrook you've just committed to spending a 6th or 7th round pick on LeSean McCoy. And trust me, you need to do that. Not only is McCoy a handcuff with great upside but he should be in line for 10-12 touches a game, even with a healthy Westbrook. The only other back to look at is Leonard Weaver who could see some goal line and short-yardage carries.
-I loved Michael Turner last year. Got him between rounds 3-5 last year in almost every league I was in. Made a killing. But be aware, he was MUCH MUCH MUCH better at home in the dome. Go back and look at his home/road splits. But even with all of that he's a top-2 pick (non-PPR). But you need the Jerious Norwood. Despite all of the talk, odds are Norwood gets less than 10 touches per game. But if Turner were to go down..... Norwood could be a monster. Remember when Priest Holmes got hurt and Larry Johnson stepped in? Norwood isn't quite that good, but he could be a top-10 back in that scenario.
-Here's the deal with the Redskins. Draft Portis easily in the 2nd round. He and Marion Barber should probably go back-to-back in most drafts, they are very close in value. Again you need Ladell Betts if you have Portis but you should be able to get him pretty late. Portis should be awesome for the first part of the season, he always is. Let him go off for a couple of weeks and then seriously consider trading him. The last couple of seasons Portis has really worn down as the season has gone on. If your ballsy you could try to hold him till Week 10. Otherwise I would get out around Week 8, right before the bye. The Redskins last 3 games this year: vs Giants, vs Cowboys and @ Chargers. Sell high, sell early.
-I'm of the mind that it's right back to the way shit used to be in San Diego. I can't see Sproles getting more than some passing downs work and some returns. In a PPR or league that counts return yards he will have some value. LT owners really need to handcuff with Sproles but you should be able to do so in the latter rounds, maybe round 10 in a 10 team snake-draft. I'm expecting a bounce-back year from LT. The Chargers have a nice schedule, LT is healthy, Gates is healthy, the o-line is healthy, Merriman is healthy..... Get the picture? If you get LT in the 2nd round of your draft you are raping the competition. In a PPR league you need to take LT in the top-5. Trust me, LT ain't done yet.
-What to do with Steven Jackson? Limitless potential, horrible team. An injury risk yes, but he is a tough guy. But the Rams are TERRIBLE. With Donnie Avery out, the cupboard is bare at WR, the o-line is a mess and Bulger hasn't been good in almost 3 years. There might be a silver lining here though. Jackson is the reverse Portis. He may start slow or get banged up early. But there is now some young talent on the o-line and Spagnuolo is a good coach. By the end of the year this team might start to pull it together. Their last 3 games? vs Houston, @ Arizona, vs 49'ers. Doesn't look too bad. The crazy part here is there's not even really a handcuff for Jackson. If he goes down, that's it. Seriously.
-I view the Panthers just like the Titans. You need to handcuff Stewart to Williams, but Stewart will have his own value regardless. All signs point to a split of carries similar to last year. Williams will be good but won't score 20 TD's again. But 1800 total yards and 15 total TD's is not impossible, or even really far-fetched. You will have to draft Stewart earlier than you would like (rounds 5-6, 10 team, non-PPR) but you can start both of them when the matchup is right. Pay attention though, Carolina has a tough schedule this year. And don't underestimate the loss of Maake Kemoeatu. When he was out last year the Panther's D fell apart. If they struggle, that will really cut into the Panthers rushing attempts. After the first 3 weeks you should have a pretty clear idea of what they really are.
-The Giants. Brandon Jacobs. Rock solid 2nd round pick (non-PPR). Will score a ton of TD's, will probably clear 1000 yards. And will miss at least 2 games. It's just how it works. So you're going to have to take Ahmad Bradshaw earlier than you would like. Remember the value Derrick Ward has had in this backup role the last two years. Remember it because somebody else in your league will too. But man up and draft Bradshaw because he is a required handcuff and will have some other value, especially in a PPR. But be aware, when Jacobs goes down Bradshaw will see his role expanded but it will still be a split, probably with Danny Ware or Andre Brown. Those two might be worth a late flier in a 14-team (or larger) league.
-I love me some Steve Slaton. He's PPR gold too. I have no problem taking Slaton anywhere from the 4th pick on. That Texans offense can really hum and Slaton will get the ball through the air quite a bit. And this is one of the few situations in the league that really isn't a timeshare. Neither Chris Brown or Ryan Moats is any kind of threat to steal carries. Neither one is even a handcuff really. Look for the Texans to pickup a back before the season starts.
-What do you think of Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD)? I think he's a damn good running back. Has been since his rookie year. But I don't think he's going to get the ball 400 times just because Fred Taylor is gone. In fact I don't think he gets 300 carries. Call it 250-275 carries and 50-70 catches. That can be a top-5 RB territory. There is still going to be some kind of split going on here. I like Greg Jones to get some work, he's always be a Del Rio favorite and he's very comfortable in short-yardage situations. Chauncey Washington is listed at #2 on the depth chart and Rashad Jennings is everybody's sleeper. One of those two will see some touches. If MJD were to go down I would expect all three backs to pitch in, with Jones having the most value. Feel free to take MJD from pick #3 onward, and probably #1 overall in a PPR league.
-Do you prefer AP or All-Day? Either way, Peterson is the man. The man you take first overall in your draft and be very happy about it. He's that guy. I would project him to pretty much duplicate last year's stats, with a couple more TD's tossed in. Chester Taylor is back as one of the most needed handcuffs in the game. And he will have some value by himself, especially in a PPR league. As always the Vikings will try to monitor AP's carries to keep him fresh so look for Taylor to consistently see 10-15 touches per game.
-It's a good idea to own both Titans backs. This is one of the few cases where your handcuff (LenDale White) is a productive player regardless. White and Johnson can easily be started together in fantasy when the match-ups are right. Should Johnson get injured White would be the starter but most likely would lose passing-downs work to another back. Still his value would increase with the Johnson injury, possibly into top-12 RB territory, easy.
-You don't want the starting RB for the Colts, you want "The Closer". Whichever back is going to get the ball in the second half is the back you want. Think Rhodes last year and Addai before that. That's going to be the RB who gets the most carries and probably overall touches. Because of the timeshare and their style it's not likely that the Colts will provide a top-15 RB this season. But it wouldn't surprise me if one of the backs gained the bigger piece of the timeshare and became very fantasy relevant in November/December.
-Not sure entirely what to make of the Cardinals mess at RB. What I do know is that Hightower is probably going to start. Beanie Wells is injury prone. Hightower proved to be a good goal line back last year. In other words, it's questionable how much value Beanie will have barring injury. To further muddy the waters, Hightower and Wells are similar, neither is going to be much of threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. So that means that there most likely will be a 3rd back involved (JJ Arrington last year) which will take carries from Hightower and Wells. I'd draft Hightower over wells (non-keeper) and avoid Arizona RB's until the later rounds unless you're desperate.
-Don't sleep on the Buffalo RB situation. Fred Jackson is going to start the first 3 games. And he's probably going to be pretty good. He's always gotten it done when given the chance. I've always been a Marshawn Lynch guy but I think this is a straight timeshare, maybe 60-40 in favor of Lynch but close. Lynch will probably get the goal line work but I think the Bills are going to pass a ton this year. Rumor has it they are going to use a no-huddle as a base offense. Jackson is a 100% must-have handcuff for Lynch owners and he will be productive in his own right. I would bump of the value of both Buffalo RB's slightly in a PPR league.
-Don't mess with New England RB's. If Sammy Morris is cut that would greatly improve Fred Taylor's value and probably Maroney too. But I'm done with Maroney. Plus Kevin Faulk is going to take away almost all of the passing downs work as well as a bunch of touches around the goal line and in the redzone. In a PPR league I would grab Faulk in the latter stages of the draft. There will be weeks when a New England RB goes off. You just have to guess the right week and the right RB.
-It's Knowshon Moreno time in Denver. They passed up filling a bunch of other glaring holes to draft Moreno in Denver. And he's going to get the rock. A lot. I don't even know if there's a clear-cut handcuff to have here. Buckhalter and Jordan might get some touches, but probably not enough to give them much value, unless one of them puts a stranglehold on the goal line back role. Take Knowshon high. In a 10-team (non-keeper, non-PPR) league whenever Pierre Thomas comes off of the board, it's time to take Knowshon. I can't see him lasting past the fourth round. And don't forget, Denver has one of the best o-lines in the league. Moreno has top-10 RB potential, right now.
-Definitely a mess at RB in Philly right now. I think you have to consider Westbrook in your draft (non-PPR) whenever LT comes off of the board. Probably early-to-mid 2nd round. If he's healthy he will again be a top-5 RB so there's value to be had here. In a PPR Westbrook is still a top-7 pick. Be warned, if you take Westbrook you've just committed to spending a 6th or 7th round pick on LeSean McCoy. And trust me, you need to do that. Not only is McCoy a handcuff with great upside but he should be in line for 10-12 touches a game, even with a healthy Westbrook. The only other back to look at is Leonard Weaver who could see some goal line and short-yardage carries.
-I loved Michael Turner last year. Got him between rounds 3-5 last year in almost every league I was in. Made a killing. But be aware, he was MUCH MUCH MUCH better at home in the dome. Go back and look at his home/road splits. But even with all of that he's a top-2 pick (non-PPR). But you need the Jerious Norwood. Despite all of the talk, odds are Norwood gets less than 10 touches per game. But if Turner were to go down..... Norwood could be a monster. Remember when Priest Holmes got hurt and Larry Johnson stepped in? Norwood isn't quite that good, but he could be a top-10 back in that scenario.
-Here's the deal with the Redskins. Draft Portis easily in the 2nd round. He and Marion Barber should probably go back-to-back in most drafts, they are very close in value. Again you need Ladell Betts if you have Portis but you should be able to get him pretty late. Portis should be awesome for the first part of the season, he always is. Let him go off for a couple of weeks and then seriously consider trading him. The last couple of seasons Portis has really worn down as the season has gone on. If your ballsy you could try to hold him till Week 10. Otherwise I would get out around Week 8, right before the bye. The Redskins last 3 games this year: vs Giants, vs Cowboys and @ Chargers. Sell high, sell early.
-I'm of the mind that it's right back to the way shit used to be in San Diego. I can't see Sproles getting more than some passing downs work and some returns. In a PPR or league that counts return yards he will have some value. LT owners really need to handcuff with Sproles but you should be able to do so in the latter rounds, maybe round 10 in a 10 team snake-draft. I'm expecting a bounce-back year from LT. The Chargers have a nice schedule, LT is healthy, Gates is healthy, the o-line is healthy, Merriman is healthy..... Get the picture? If you get LT in the 2nd round of your draft you are raping the competition. In a PPR league you need to take LT in the top-5. Trust me, LT ain't done yet.
-What to do with Steven Jackson? Limitless potential, horrible team. An injury risk yes, but he is a tough guy. But the Rams are TERRIBLE. With Donnie Avery out, the cupboard is bare at WR, the o-line is a mess and Bulger hasn't been good in almost 3 years. There might be a silver lining here though. Jackson is the reverse Portis. He may start slow or get banged up early. But there is now some young talent on the o-line and Spagnuolo is a good coach. By the end of the year this team might start to pull it together. Their last 3 games? vs Houston, @ Arizona, vs 49'ers. Doesn't look too bad. The crazy part here is there's not even really a handcuff for Jackson. If he goes down, that's it. Seriously.
-I view the Panthers just like the Titans. You need to handcuff Stewart to Williams, but Stewart will have his own value regardless. All signs point to a split of carries similar to last year. Williams will be good but won't score 20 TD's again. But 1800 total yards and 15 total TD's is not impossible, or even really far-fetched. You will have to draft Stewart earlier than you would like (rounds 5-6, 10 team, non-PPR) but you can start both of them when the matchup is right. Pay attention though, Carolina has a tough schedule this year. And don't underestimate the loss of Maake Kemoeatu. When he was out last year the Panther's D fell apart. If they struggle, that will really cut into the Panthers rushing attempts. After the first 3 weeks you should have a pretty clear idea of what they really are.
-The Giants. Brandon Jacobs. Rock solid 2nd round pick (non-PPR). Will score a ton of TD's, will probably clear 1000 yards. And will miss at least 2 games. It's just how it works. So you're going to have to take Ahmad Bradshaw earlier than you would like. Remember the value Derrick Ward has had in this backup role the last two years. Remember it because somebody else in your league will too. But man up and draft Bradshaw because he is a required handcuff and will have some other value, especially in a PPR. But be aware, when Jacobs goes down Bradshaw will see his role expanded but it will still be a split, probably with Danny Ware or Andre Brown. Those two might be worth a late flier in a 14-team (or larger) league.
-I love me some Steve Slaton. He's PPR gold too. I have no problem taking Slaton anywhere from the 4th pick on. That Texans offense can really hum and Slaton will get the ball through the air quite a bit. And this is one of the few situations in the league that really isn't a timeshare. Neither Chris Brown or Ryan Moats is any kind of threat to steal carries. Neither one is even a handcuff really. Look for the Texans to pickup a back before the season starts.
-What do you think of Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD)? I think he's a damn good running back. Has been since his rookie year. But I don't think he's going to get the ball 400 times just because Fred Taylor is gone. In fact I don't think he gets 300 carries. Call it 250-275 carries and 50-70 catches. That can be a top-5 RB territory. There is still going to be some kind of split going on here. I like Greg Jones to get some work, he's always be a Del Rio favorite and he's very comfortable in short-yardage situations. Chauncey Washington is listed at #2 on the depth chart and Rashad Jennings is everybody's sleeper. One of those two will see some touches. If MJD were to go down I would expect all three backs to pitch in, with Jones having the most value. Feel free to take MJD from pick #3 onward, and probably #1 overall in a PPR league.
-Do you prefer AP or All-Day? Either way, Peterson is the man. The man you take first overall in your draft and be very happy about it. He's that guy. I would project him to pretty much duplicate last year's stats, with a couple more TD's tossed in. Chester Taylor is back as one of the most needed handcuffs in the game. And he will have some value by himself, especially in a PPR league. As always the Vikings will try to monitor AP's carries to keep him fresh so look for Taylor to consistently see 10-15 touches per game.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Fantasy Football Pre-Season TE Rankings & Tiers (August 11, 2009)
What we're doing here is looking back at last week's TE Rankings and commenting on anything we see changing.
- Jason Witten (1st, Tier 1) He's actually the 3rd TE coming off of the board in most drafts right now. I think that's kind of crazy but people love their Gonzo and their Gates. If you can get Witten as the 3rd TE draft that's pretty sick value. He is the #1 target in the Cowboys' offense. Neither Gonzo or Gates can make that claim at this point.
- Chris Cooley (6th, Tier 3) He actually had career highs in catches and yards last year, he just couldn't find the endzone. So there's really no reason for a fall off but watch out for Fred Davis. He was a 2nd round draft pick last year and could be used with Cooley in more 2 TE sets. This might actually hurt Cooley a bit though as he probably will be asked to block more. But Cooley will remain Campbell's safety net.
- Brandon Pettigrew (12th, Tier 5) The reports out of Lions camp are not good. Pettigrew has consistently been hurt and has not been anything special when on the field. I wouldn't discount him entirely but I'm not sure if he's going to be draftable in 10 team leagues at this point. He might come up and the season progresses so keep him on your watch lists.
- Derek Fine (Not Ranked) He got some looks in the Bills' first pre-season game and a move to the no-huddle offense should get the TE more involved. There might be some value here but I don't see a lot of TD's. Much will depend on how the Bills' o-line comes together. If they struggle the TE will have to stay in and block a majority of the time.
- Alge Crumpler (Not Ranked) I was sure he was done but there he was in the Hall of Fame Game. He looks like an offensive lineman. But he can still move a bit and has good hands. In other words, I'm not sure that a Titans' TE is draftable in 10-team leagues. If you need a bye-week fill-in just pick one off of waivers and hope.
Fantasy Football Pre-Season QB Rankings & Tiers (August 11, 2009)
What we're doing here is looking back at last week's QB Rankings and commenting on anything we see changing.
- Tom Brady (5th, Tier 2) Everybody loves Tom Brady. He hasn't missed a practice and he still has Randy and Welker plus Joey Galloway and Bill B's boy Greg Lewis. Don't really think Brady is an injury risk but the track record of QB's coming back from multiple ligament tears (Rivers last year doesn't count) is not good for at least the first 10 games back. And don't sleep on the Patriots desire to run the ball. If Maroney is healthy and Taylor stays fresh Brady might not get nearly the pass attempts he needs to be a top 3 QB. We're not raising him to Tier 1 yet.
- Philip Rivers (6th, Tier 2) This is more of a hunch thing than anything else but I just don't think the Chargers will pass nearly as much as they did last year. Their defense should be much better, their division is weak and a healthy LT is screaming for the ball. If the Chargers are a very good team Rivers' stats will probably suffer a bit. It might not be the worst idea in the world to handcuff LT and Rivers. Neither will kill you and one of the two should always have a very good game.
- Kurt Warner (8th, Tier 3) The news that Matt Leinart could lose the #2 job actually helps Warner. It's pretty much official that Warner is THE GUY barring injury or catastrophe. The Cardinals o-line should continue to gel and improve so this should bump Warner up to Tier 2.
- Jason Campbell (16th, Tier 5) You gotta love the Redskins. On one hand you hear reports about how good Campbell looks, but then you hear about how awesome Colt Brennan looks. Not buying the latter. The Redskins drafted 3 recieving weapons in the second round last year. If just one of them produces something it will help Campbell a ton. Plus this is the first time since Campbell was in college that he gets to stay in the same offensive system. The Redskins o-line is a mess now but if they get it together Campbell could make a run at being a lower-level QB1 or at least a very nice QB2.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Welcome to the Fantasy Football Preview, 2009 Style
Here's the deal. We're starting with rankings, then we're going to dissect and update the rankings, then bitch some more. And you're going to be loving it. We feel this is the most constructive way to get a feel for how your fantasy draft is going to shake out this year. Kill?
Here's the deal with rankings over here. The positional rankings are our best shot at predicting who (barring any injuries, yeah right) will score the most fantasy points at each position. The tiers in the positional rankings represent a spot where we feel that there is a large gap between one player and the next lowest player on the list. Players on the same tier are generally expected to perform at a similar level. These types of rankings are helpful when you are targeting specific positions in your drafts, not just necessarily the best player available.
Overall rankings ARE NOT necessarily the order we think each player will finish the season in overall in fantasy points. Overall rankings are use to predict DRAFT POSITION. For instance, in many leagues QB's are the highest scoring positions, but you're probably not taking Drew Brees with the 1st pick even though you think he'll end up being the highest scoring player. Sounds real freakin smart right? AP (or Tuner, or whoever, well not really whoever but we're not arguing over the top couple RB's right now) will have more trade value and perceived value than Brees. Plus you maybe able to get him with your second pick depending how things shake out. You have to consider that thee is expected to be a large difference between AP and the number 7 RB. In most leagues there will be much less of a difference between the number 1 QB and the number 7 QB. Unless Tom Brady goes all Tom Brady on us. Again. The overall rankings are a draft tool not a Draft Bible.
These rankings are meant to reflect a 10 team (non-PPR, non-keeper) league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR Flex, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K with a six man bench. 6 points for a rushing/receiving TD, 4 points per passing TD, 1 point every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 1 point for ever 20 passing yards.
We're not doing D/ST or K rankings yet because it's pretty pointless. After the third pre-season game we will do D/ST and K tiers but don't hold your breath and don't waste a draft pick before the last 2 rounds on a D/ST or a K unless your scoring settings warrant it. And most don't. Don't be that guy.
Please feel free to bitch, nitpick, hate, all that good stuff on our rankings. That's how we get a feel for what people are thinking. But keep in mind, no matter how good of an arguement you make (or how good he was in Madden) we're not putting Vick in the top tier of QB's, or moving up that undrafted player you saw score 3 TD's at training camp last week.
One last note, you should not be drafting money leagues yet. The weekend of the 3rd week of the pre-season is the earliest I would recommend drafting any league that costs you dough. Shit, last year our draft happened about 30 minutes after the Cardinals announced Kurt Warner would be the starting QB. I grabbed him in round 10 (14 team league) and he ended up being a top-5 overall player for the season. So get as much info as you can. You might not really care who ends up the starting QB in San Fran but what if he blows up? Stranger shit has, and will continue to happen.
Here's the deal with rankings over here. The positional rankings are our best shot at predicting who (barring any injuries, yeah right) will score the most fantasy points at each position. The tiers in the positional rankings represent a spot where we feel that there is a large gap between one player and the next lowest player on the list. Players on the same tier are generally expected to perform at a similar level. These types of rankings are helpful when you are targeting specific positions in your drafts, not just necessarily the best player available.
Overall rankings ARE NOT necessarily the order we think each player will finish the season in overall in fantasy points. Overall rankings are use to predict DRAFT POSITION. For instance, in many leagues QB's are the highest scoring positions, but you're probably not taking Drew Brees with the 1st pick even though you think he'll end up being the highest scoring player. Sounds real freakin smart right? AP (or Tuner, or whoever, well not really whoever but we're not arguing over the top couple RB's right now) will have more trade value and perceived value than Brees. Plus you maybe able to get him with your second pick depending how things shake out. You have to consider that thee is expected to be a large difference between AP and the number 7 RB. In most leagues there will be much less of a difference between the number 1 QB and the number 7 QB. Unless Tom Brady goes all Tom Brady on us. Again. The overall rankings are a draft tool not a Draft Bible.
These rankings are meant to reflect a 10 team (non-PPR, non-keeper) league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR Flex, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K with a six man bench. 6 points for a rushing/receiving TD, 4 points per passing TD, 1 point every 10 rushing/receiving yards, 1 point for ever 20 passing yards.
We're not doing D/ST or K rankings yet because it's pretty pointless. After the third pre-season game we will do D/ST and K tiers but don't hold your breath and don't waste a draft pick before the last 2 rounds on a D/ST or a K unless your scoring settings warrant it. And most don't. Don't be that guy.
Please feel free to bitch, nitpick, hate, all that good stuff on our rankings. That's how we get a feel for what people are thinking. But keep in mind, no matter how good of an arguement you make (or how good he was in Madden) we're not putting Vick in the top tier of QB's, or moving up that undrafted player you saw score 3 TD's at training camp last week.
One last note, you should not be drafting money leagues yet. The weekend of the 3rd week of the pre-season is the earliest I would recommend drafting any league that costs you dough. Shit, last year our draft happened about 30 minutes after the Cardinals announced Kurt Warner would be the starting QB. I grabbed him in round 10 (14 team league) and he ended up being a top-5 overall player for the season. So get as much info as you can. You might not really care who ends up the starting QB in San Fran but what if he blows up? Stranger shit has, and will continue to happen.
Fantasy Football Pre-Season TE Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)
August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings
TE
TIER 1
1. Jason Witten
TIER 2
2. Tony Gonzalez
3. Antonio Gates
TIER 3
4. Dallas Clark
5. Owen Daniels
6. Chris Cooley
TIER 4
7. Greg Olson
8. Dustin Keller
9. Zach Miller
10. John Carlson
TIER 5
11. Visanthe Shiancoe
12. Brandon Pettigrew
13. Brent Celek
14. Kevin Boss
15. Jeremy Shockey
TIER 6
16. Heath Miller
17. Bo Scaife
18. Mercedes Lewis
19. Anthony Fasano
TIER 7
20. Desmond Clark
21. Donald Lee
22. Martellus Bennett
23. Ben Utecht
24. Randy McMichael
25. Billy Miller
TIER 8
26. LJ Smith
27. Brad Cottam
28. Jared Cook
29. Leonard Pope
30. Todd Heap
Pre-Season Rankings
TE
TIER 1
1. Jason Witten
TIER 2
2. Tony Gonzalez
3. Antonio Gates
TIER 3
4. Dallas Clark
5. Owen Daniels
6. Chris Cooley
TIER 4
7. Greg Olson
8. Dustin Keller
9. Zach Miller
10. John Carlson
TIER 5
11. Visanthe Shiancoe
12. Brandon Pettigrew
13. Brent Celek
14. Kevin Boss
15. Jeremy Shockey
TIER 6
16. Heath Miller
17. Bo Scaife
18. Mercedes Lewis
19. Anthony Fasano
TIER 7
20. Desmond Clark
21. Donald Lee
22. Martellus Bennett
23. Ben Utecht
24. Randy McMichael
25. Billy Miller
TIER 8
26. LJ Smith
27. Brad Cottam
28. Jared Cook
29. Leonard Pope
30. Todd Heap
Fantasy Football Pre-Season WR Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)
August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings
WR
TIER 1
1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
TIER 2
4. Reggie Wayne
5. Randy Moss
6. Steve Smith
TIER 3
7. Roddy White
8. Dwayne Bowe
9. Greg Jennings
10. Anquan Boldin
11. Wes Welker
12. Brandon Marshall
13. Roy E Williams
14. Terrell Owens
15. Marques Colston
TIER 4
16. Vincent Jackson
17. DeSean Jackson
18. Santana Moss
19. Antonio Bryant
TIER 5
20. Santonio Holmes
21. Jerricho Cotchery
22. Kevin Walter
23. Lee Evans
24. Hines Ward
25. Bernard Berrian
26. Chad Ochocinco
27. Anthony Gonzalez
28. TJ Houshmandzadeh
29. Braylon Edwards
30. Lance Moore
TIER 6
31. Derrick Mason
32. Laveranues Coles
33. Devin Hester
34. Donald Driver
35. Eddie Royal
36. Torry Holt
37. Michael Crabtree
38. Steve Breston
39. Kevin Curtis
TIER 7
40. Joey Galloway
41. Percy Harvin
42. Chris Chambers
43. Donnie Avery
44. Nate Washington
45. Josh Morgan
46. Miles Austin
47. Steve Smith (NYG)
48. Ted Ginn Jr
49. Earl Bennett
50. Chris Henry
51. Muhsin Muhammad
TIER 8
52. Nate Burleson
53. Mark Clayton
54. Bobby Engram
55. Domenik Hixon
56. Issac Bruce
57. Greg Camarillo
58. Patrick Crayton
59. Hakeem Nicks
60. Justin Gage
Pre-Season Rankings
WR
TIER 1
1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Larry Fitzgerald
TIER 2
4. Reggie Wayne
5. Randy Moss
6. Steve Smith
TIER 3
7. Roddy White
8. Dwayne Bowe
9. Greg Jennings
10. Anquan Boldin
11. Wes Welker
12. Brandon Marshall
13. Roy E Williams
14. Terrell Owens
15. Marques Colston
TIER 4
16. Vincent Jackson
17. DeSean Jackson
18. Santana Moss
19. Antonio Bryant
TIER 5
20. Santonio Holmes
21. Jerricho Cotchery
22. Kevin Walter
23. Lee Evans
24. Hines Ward
25. Bernard Berrian
26. Chad Ochocinco
27. Anthony Gonzalez
28. TJ Houshmandzadeh
29. Braylon Edwards
30. Lance Moore
TIER 6
31. Derrick Mason
32. Laveranues Coles
33. Devin Hester
34. Donald Driver
35. Eddie Royal
36. Torry Holt
37. Michael Crabtree
38. Steve Breston
39. Kevin Curtis
TIER 7
40. Joey Galloway
41. Percy Harvin
42. Chris Chambers
43. Donnie Avery
44. Nate Washington
45. Josh Morgan
46. Miles Austin
47. Steve Smith (NYG)
48. Ted Ginn Jr
49. Earl Bennett
50. Chris Henry
51. Muhsin Muhammad
TIER 8
52. Nate Burleson
53. Mark Clayton
54. Bobby Engram
55. Domenik Hixon
56. Issac Bruce
57. Greg Camarillo
58. Patrick Crayton
59. Hakeem Nicks
60. Justin Gage
Fantasy Football Pre-Season RB Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)
August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings
RB
TIER 1
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Michael Turner
TIER 2
4. Matt Forte
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. Steve Slaton
TIER 3
8. Marion Barber III
9. Ladainian Tomlinson
10. Clinton Portis
11. DeAngelo Williams
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Frank Gore
TIER 4
14. Ryan Grant
15. Ronnie Brown
16. Brian Westbrook
17. Pierre Thomas
TIER 5
18. Thomas Jones
19. Kevin Smith
20. Marshawn Lynch
TIER 6
21. Darren McFadden
22. Joseph Addai
23. Jonathan Stewart
24. Derrick Ward
25. Reggie Bush
26. LenDale White
27. Beanie Wells
28. Willie Parker
TIER 7
29. Knowshon Moreno
30. Jamal Lewis
31. Cedric Benson
32. Felix Jones
33. Ray Rice
34. Fred Taylor
35. Jamal Charles
36. Donald Brown
37. Tim Hightower
TIER 8
38. Julius Jones
39. Jerome Harrison
40. Rashard Mendenhall
41. LeSean McCoy
42. Fred Jackson
43. Earnest Graham
44. Jerious Norwood
45. Chester Taylor
46. Laurence Maroney
47. Willis McGahee
48. Ahmad Bradshaw
49. Michael Bush
50. Justin Fargas
TIER 9
51. Ladell Betts
52. Sammy Morris
53. Leon Washington
54. Kevin Faulk
55. Kevin Jones
56. Greg Jones
57. Glen Coffee
58. Correll Buckhalter
59. Tashard Choice
60. Darren Sproles
Pre-Season Rankings
RB
TIER 1
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Michael Turner
TIER 2
4. Matt Forte
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. Steve Slaton
TIER 3
8. Marion Barber III
9. Ladainian Tomlinson
10. Clinton Portis
11. DeAngelo Williams
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Frank Gore
TIER 4
14. Ryan Grant
15. Ronnie Brown
16. Brian Westbrook
17. Pierre Thomas
TIER 5
18. Thomas Jones
19. Kevin Smith
20. Marshawn Lynch
TIER 6
21. Darren McFadden
22. Joseph Addai
23. Jonathan Stewart
24. Derrick Ward
25. Reggie Bush
26. LenDale White
27. Beanie Wells
28. Willie Parker
TIER 7
29. Knowshon Moreno
30. Jamal Lewis
31. Cedric Benson
32. Felix Jones
33. Ray Rice
34. Fred Taylor
35. Jamal Charles
36. Donald Brown
37. Tim Hightower
TIER 8
38. Julius Jones
39. Jerome Harrison
40. Rashard Mendenhall
41. LeSean McCoy
42. Fred Jackson
43. Earnest Graham
44. Jerious Norwood
45. Chester Taylor
46. Laurence Maroney
47. Willis McGahee
48. Ahmad Bradshaw
49. Michael Bush
50. Justin Fargas
TIER 9
51. Ladell Betts
52. Sammy Morris
53. Leon Washington
54. Kevin Faulk
55. Kevin Jones
56. Greg Jones
57. Glen Coffee
58. Correll Buckhalter
59. Tashard Choice
60. Darren Sproles
Fantasy Football Pre-Season QB Rankings & Tiers (August 3, 2009)
August 3, 2009
Pre-Season Rankings
QB
TIER 1
1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
TIER 2
3. Aaron Rogers
4. Donovan McNabb
5. Tom Brady
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
TIER 3
8. Kurt Warner
9. Matt Ryan
10. Matt Schuab
TIER 4
11. Carson Palmer
12. Jay Cutler
13. Matt Hasselbeck
14. Jay Cutler
15. Kyle Orton
TIER 5
16. Jason Campbell
17. Eli Manning
18. Trent Edwards
19. Ben Roethlisberger
20. Matt Cassel
TIER 6
21. David Garrard
22. Jake Delhomme
23. Joe Flacco
TIER 7
24. Shaun Hill
25. Chad Pennington
26. Mark Sanchez
27. Brady Quinn
28. Marc Bulger
TIER 8
29. Sage Rosenfels
30. Matthew Stafford
31. Luke McCown
32. Pat White
33. Kerry Collins
TIER 9
34. Tavaris Jackson
35. Matt Leinart
36. Jeff Garcia
37. Byron Leftwich
38. Seneca Wallace
39. Jon Kitna
40. Derek Anderson
41. Tyler Thigpen
42. Alex Smtih
43. Kellen Clemens
TIER 10
44. Vince Young
45. Rex Grossman
46. Chris Simms
47. Josh Freeman
48. Chris Simms
49. Charlie Batch
50. Billy Volek
Pre-Season Rankings
QB
TIER 1
1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
TIER 2
3. Aaron Rogers
4. Donovan McNabb
5. Tom Brady
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo
TIER 3
8. Kurt Warner
9. Matt Ryan
10. Matt Schuab
TIER 4
11. Carson Palmer
12. Jay Cutler
13. Matt Hasselbeck
14. Jay Cutler
15. Kyle Orton
TIER 5
16. Jason Campbell
17. Eli Manning
18. Trent Edwards
19. Ben Roethlisberger
20. Matt Cassel
TIER 6
21. David Garrard
22. Jake Delhomme
23. Joe Flacco
TIER 7
24. Shaun Hill
25. Chad Pennington
26. Mark Sanchez
27. Brady Quinn
28. Marc Bulger
TIER 8
29. Sage Rosenfels
30. Matthew Stafford
31. Luke McCown
32. Pat White
33. Kerry Collins
TIER 9
34. Tavaris Jackson
35. Matt Leinart
36. Jeff Garcia
37. Byron Leftwich
38. Seneca Wallace
39. Jon Kitna
40. Derek Anderson
41. Tyler Thigpen
42. Alex Smtih
43. Kellen Clemens
TIER 10
44. Vince Young
45. Rex Grossman
46. Chris Simms
47. Josh Freeman
48. Chris Simms
49. Charlie Batch
50. Billy Volek
Friday, April 3, 2009
Friday's NHL Squiggles
I really just wanted to use the word squiggles. Squiggles are crooked lines, plus it's really just a pretty kill word. Anyhow.....
P.U.T.P.W. (Possible Upsets That Pay Well)
Maple Leafs (+250) @ Flyers
Flames (E) @ Wild
D.N.L. (Damn Near Locks)
Devils (-350) vs Lightning
Blackhawks (-200) vs Predators
B.T.E.O.V. (Beware The Eyes Of Vegas)
Capitals (-160) vs Sabres
NOTES
YOU SAY HIGH, I SAY LOW
Leafs @ Flyers - Under 6.5
Lightning @ Devils - Over 5.5
Sabres @ Capitals - Under 6
Thrashers @ Panthers - Over 6
Flames @ Wild - Under 5
Predators @ Blackhawks - Under 5.5
NOTES
P.U.T.P.W. (Possible Upsets That Pay Well)
Maple Leafs (+250) @ Flyers
Flames (E) @ Wild
D.N.L. (Damn Near Locks)
Devils (-350) vs Lightning
Blackhawks (-200) vs Predators
B.T.E.O.V. (Beware The Eyes Of Vegas)
Capitals (-160) vs Sabres
NOTES
- Leafs @ Flyers is closer to a coin flip than you think. Biron is 1-2 vs Leafs this year.
- Flames are 5-0 vs Wild this year
- Kevin Weekes is 2-0 this year vs Lightning. Lecavalier is out for the season. Devils are due for a breakout game.
- Khabibulin is undefeated vs Predators this season. Blackhawks clinch playoff berth with win.
- Capitals are starting rookie Varlamov in goal tonight. Buffalo must win to stay alive in playoff chase.
YOU SAY HIGH, I SAY LOW
Leafs @ Flyers - Under 6.5
Lightning @ Devils - Over 5.5
Sabres @ Capitals - Under 6
Thrashers @ Panthers - Over 6
Flames @ Wild - Under 5
Predators @ Blackhawks - Under 5.5
NOTES
- I'd stay away from the Flyers game, the Capitals game and the Devils game as far as the under/over goes if possible.
Random Cutler Links
I figured I'd just beat the dead horse. Thanks Worldwide Leader! I learned by watching you!
- Is Cutler the answer? (Allen Iverson declined to comment)
- Jason Campbell is not Jay Cutler
- Cutler already has issues with Bears coordinator?
The Cutler Trade (A Historical Perspective)
Cutler Trade
The Bears gave up: (full details here)
2009 1st round pick
2009 3rd round pick
2010 1st round pick
Kyle Orton
*Bears receive Jay Cutler and a 2009 5th round pick
Looks like a lot huh? Let's compare this trade to some other large trades in the last couple of decades.
Herschel Walker Trade
The Vikings gave up: (full details here)
3 1st round picks
3 2nd round picks
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
3 players
*Vikings receive Herschel Walker, 2 3rd round picks, 1 5th round pick, 1 10th round pick
Some of these picks were conditions, check out the link for the full breakdown. Overall this was a miserable failure for the Vikings. The Cowboys literally turned this haul of draft picks and players into a dynasty. History is shown that you can rebuild through the draft. So the more quality picks you have, the faster you can rebuild. Positional value is a bit different these days, I don't know if a team could get 2 first round picks in exchange for a running back today. Probably for Peterson. But quarterbacks are so highly valued. (Looking at the Cutler trade I would I guess that the assigned value for Kyle Orton was a 2nd round pick. That's not a throw in.) If Walker was in his prime today my guess is you could get a 1st and a 3rd for him. So comparatively, the Cutler trade looks like a bank robbery with a clean getaway.
The Jon Gruden Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
2 2nd round draft picks
Cash (rumored to be several million dollars)
*Bucs receive coach Jon Gruden
Yeah I know Gruden was a coach, but it's the actual trade I'm looking at. The Bucs claim they would do this trade again 100% of the time because they won the Super Bowl. How do they know that they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl anyway with Tony Dungy? I guess you could argue that they might have lost to Gruden in the Super Bowl if he coached the Raiders. But the NFC that year was basically just the Eagles and Bucs. But they did get Gruden and did win the Super Bowl so it the trade worked, they won the battle. But they ultimately lost the war because they were never able to add high-end young talent to their nucleus. They had an elite defense for years but could never get over the top after that Super Bowl. No one will ever pay this much for a coach ever again. I just can't see it happening. There is a reason it seems like the Bucs got old and fell apart all at once and this trade (and the Keyshawn trade) are at the heart of that reason. I like the Cutler deal better than this trade. Plus there will be some great coaches on the open market next year, there won't be any 25 year old starting quarterbacks who've been to the Pro Bowl already.
The Keyshawn Johnson Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
*Bucs receive Keyshawn Johnson
I could basically say the same things about the Johnson trade as I did about the Gruden trade. At the time the Bucs had a good-to-great defense and their offense have Dunn/Alstott and nothing. I guess their thinking was "if we can't get a good QB let's at least get a good WR". So they went out and got Keyshawn. Did Keyshawn play a key role in winning the Super Bowl? Yes he did. Looking back on it, I like this trade more than the Gruden trade. At least Keyshawn was later traded for Joey Galloway who gave the Bucs a couple of good years. These days Anquan Boldin is a good comparison for Keyshawn's value and it looks like Boldin would cost a 1st round pick and maybe a player in trade. So the Bucs overpaid for Keyshawn a bit, but they did need him. I like the Cutler trade a bit more than this, but by itself was a pretty good trade. When coupled with the Gruden trade it completely mortgaged the Bucs' future.
The Joey Galloway Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round picks
*Cowboys receive Joey Galloway
This is a classic Jerry Jones swinging for the fences trade. 2 first rounders was way too much to give up for Galloway and it never really worked out for the Cowboys. Maybe Jones felt bad about getting such a haul for Walker from the Vikings. No matter what way you cut it, the Cutler trade looks like a home run compared to this deal.
The Roy Williams Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
*Cowboys receive Roy Williams and a 7th round pick
Too early to really evaluate this deal. This is only 1 first rounder less than the Cutler deal. Which makes it quite pricey for a WR deal in this era. This is probably the baseline deal for any other WR deals this year. Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin, I'm talkin to you. Jerry Jones overpaid for two reasons. First he needed T.O. leverage. He ultimately leveraged him right out of town. Second, Jones was pretty sure that if he didn't get Williams before the trade deadline, the Eagles would get him before the draft this year. Given the fact that the Eagles have two first round picks he was probably right.
The Jared Allen Trade
The Vikings give up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
2 3rd round picks
*Vikings receive Jared Allen and sway 6th round picks with the Chiefs
Given the value being placed on premium pass-rushers today, this was a pretty good deal. Jared Allen is one of the best in the NFL and he's squarely in his prime. I doubt you could completely replace him, even with an extra first and a couple thirds. I'd put this deal slightly ahead of the Cutler deal. Part of that is because it seems like it's working out well for the Vikings and Allen was a bit more proven when he was trade than Cutler was.
The Eli Manning Trade
The Giants gave up: (full details here)
Philip Rivers
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 5th round pick
*Giants receive Eli Manning
Here's another deal that the team claims they'd do again 100% of the time when given the chance. Just for the record, the 1st round pick they gave up turned in Shawne Merriman, the 3rd round pick turned into a Pro Bowl kicker and the 5th round pick was traded for a guy who started at LT for the Chargers for a while. You're telling me the Giants couldn't have won the Super Bowl with Philip Rivers AND Merriman instead of Eli? Don't lie to make friends. But in a vacuum (assume I don't know who the draft picks turn into) I still don't know how much I like this trade. Rivers was every bit of the pro prospect Manning was. I like Manning and Rivers more than Kyle Orton but it's not a crazy comparison, at least between Manning and Orton. Seriously, check the stats. It looks like the Bears still gave up more for Cutler than the Giants gave up for Eli, if you grade Rivers much high than Orton. Which I would. But Cutler is at least mostly proven himself, Eli just had a last name and some college film We'll call it a draw, for now.
I've ignored other deals here obviously, I just wanted to compared deals where a large package of picks was traded for a single player. I know there have been other deals but these were more prominent in my mind when I wrote this. I wanted to avoid draft day deals but there's one deal I need to address. Okay, had to add the Eli deal. When I look at the Cutler deal compared to these other deals, I see pretty good value. Did the Bears pay out the ass for Cutler? Absolutely. Might it be worth it? Probably. I'm assuming Cutler stays mostly healthy and plays football for another 10 years. You've got to figure if Cutler could start for the Bears for 10 years he's at least worth the two first round picks. You know the Bears would blow at least two more first rounders on QB's in the next ten years if they didn't have Cutler. That alone seems to make it worth it for me. Physically, Cutler is a good fit for playing in the NFC North and he'll be embraced in Chicago so hard and so fast, he'll be quite scared.
The one thing nobody has talked about yet is Cutler's contract. He's received most of the money already due to the bonus structure of the deal. I believe he's making just over $1 million this year. For a starting QB, that's insane. I've always been of the position that if the Broncos had just offered Cutler an extension he would've taken it and it would've been all good between Cutler and the Broncos. Yet the Broncos chose not to offer an extension, nor has an extension been announced in conjunction with this trade. Given the acrimony between the Broncos franchise and Cutler it's quite possible that the Bears never spoke to Cutler before acquiring him. At the least, no substantive contract took place. Just something to watch out for in the coming weeks. I wonder if the Bears are waiting for the Giants to extend Eli? It will be interesting to see which QB signs his extension first, especially given the current economic climate and upcoming CBA talks.
The Bears gave up: (full details here)
2009 1st round pick
2009 3rd round pick
2010 1st round pick
Kyle Orton
*Bears receive Jay Cutler and a 2009 5th round pick
Looks like a lot huh? Let's compare this trade to some other large trades in the last couple of decades.
Herschel Walker Trade
The Vikings gave up: (full details here)
3 1st round picks
3 2nd round picks
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
3 players
*Vikings receive Herschel Walker, 2 3rd round picks, 1 5th round pick, 1 10th round pick
Some of these picks were conditions, check out the link for the full breakdown. Overall this was a miserable failure for the Vikings. The Cowboys literally turned this haul of draft picks and players into a dynasty. History is shown that you can rebuild through the draft. So the more quality picks you have, the faster you can rebuild. Positional value is a bit different these days, I don't know if a team could get 2 first round picks in exchange for a running back today. Probably for Peterson. But quarterbacks are so highly valued. (Looking at the Cutler trade I would I guess that the assigned value for Kyle Orton was a 2nd round pick. That's not a throw in.) If Walker was in his prime today my guess is you could get a 1st and a 3rd for him. So comparatively, the Cutler trade looks like a bank robbery with a clean getaway.
The Jon Gruden Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
2 2nd round draft picks
Cash (rumored to be several million dollars)
*Bucs receive coach Jon Gruden
Yeah I know Gruden was a coach, but it's the actual trade I'm looking at. The Bucs claim they would do this trade again 100% of the time because they won the Super Bowl. How do they know that they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl anyway with Tony Dungy? I guess you could argue that they might have lost to Gruden in the Super Bowl if he coached the Raiders. But the NFC that year was basically just the Eagles and Bucs. But they did get Gruden and did win the Super Bowl so it the trade worked, they won the battle. But they ultimately lost the war because they were never able to add high-end young talent to their nucleus. They had an elite defense for years but could never get over the top after that Super Bowl. No one will ever pay this much for a coach ever again. I just can't see it happening. There is a reason it seems like the Bucs got old and fell apart all at once and this trade (and the Keyshawn trade) are at the heart of that reason. I like the Cutler deal better than this trade. Plus there will be some great coaches on the open market next year, there won't be any 25 year old starting quarterbacks who've been to the Pro Bowl already.
The Keyshawn Johnson Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
*Bucs receive Keyshawn Johnson
I could basically say the same things about the Johnson trade as I did about the Gruden trade. At the time the Bucs had a good-to-great defense and their offense have Dunn/Alstott and nothing. I guess their thinking was "if we can't get a good QB let's at least get a good WR". So they went out and got Keyshawn. Did Keyshawn play a key role in winning the Super Bowl? Yes he did. Looking back on it, I like this trade more than the Gruden trade. At least Keyshawn was later traded for Joey Galloway who gave the Bucs a couple of good years. These days Anquan Boldin is a good comparison for Keyshawn's value and it looks like Boldin would cost a 1st round pick and maybe a player in trade. So the Bucs overpaid for Keyshawn a bit, but they did need him. I like the Cutler trade a bit more than this, but by itself was a pretty good trade. When coupled with the Gruden trade it completely mortgaged the Bucs' future.
The Joey Galloway Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round picks
*Cowboys receive Joey Galloway
This is a classic Jerry Jones swinging for the fences trade. 2 first rounders was way too much to give up for Galloway and it never really worked out for the Cowboys. Maybe Jones felt bad about getting such a haul for Walker from the Vikings. No matter what way you cut it, the Cutler trade looks like a home run compared to this deal.
The Roy Williams Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
*Cowboys receive Roy Williams and a 7th round pick
Too early to really evaluate this deal. This is only 1 first rounder less than the Cutler deal. Which makes it quite pricey for a WR deal in this era. This is probably the baseline deal for any other WR deals this year. Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin, I'm talkin to you. Jerry Jones overpaid for two reasons. First he needed T.O. leverage. He ultimately leveraged him right out of town. Second, Jones was pretty sure that if he didn't get Williams before the trade deadline, the Eagles would get him before the draft this year. Given the fact that the Eagles have two first round picks he was probably right.
The Jared Allen Trade
The Vikings give up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
2 3rd round picks
*Vikings receive Jared Allen and sway 6th round picks with the Chiefs
Given the value being placed on premium pass-rushers today, this was a pretty good deal. Jared Allen is one of the best in the NFL and he's squarely in his prime. I doubt you could completely replace him, even with an extra first and a couple thirds. I'd put this deal slightly ahead of the Cutler deal. Part of that is because it seems like it's working out well for the Vikings and Allen was a bit more proven when he was trade than Cutler was.
The Eli Manning Trade
The Giants gave up: (full details here)
Philip Rivers
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 5th round pick
*Giants receive Eli Manning
Here's another deal that the team claims they'd do again 100% of the time when given the chance. Just for the record, the 1st round pick they gave up turned in Shawne Merriman, the 3rd round pick turned into a Pro Bowl kicker and the 5th round pick was traded for a guy who started at LT for the Chargers for a while. You're telling me the Giants couldn't have won the Super Bowl with Philip Rivers AND Merriman instead of Eli? Don't lie to make friends. But in a vacuum (assume I don't know who the draft picks turn into) I still don't know how much I like this trade. Rivers was every bit of the pro prospect Manning was. I like Manning and Rivers more than Kyle Orton but it's not a crazy comparison, at least between Manning and Orton. Seriously, check the stats. It looks like the Bears still gave up more for Cutler than the Giants gave up for Eli, if you grade Rivers much high than Orton. Which I would. But Cutler is at least mostly proven himself, Eli just had a last name and some college film We'll call it a draw, for now.
I've ignored other deals here obviously, I just wanted to compared deals where a large package of picks was traded for a single player. I know there have been other deals but these were more prominent in my mind when I wrote this. I wanted to avoid draft day deals but there's one deal I need to address. Okay, had to add the Eli deal. When I look at the Cutler deal compared to these other deals, I see pretty good value. Did the Bears pay out the ass for Cutler? Absolutely. Might it be worth it? Probably. I'm assuming Cutler stays mostly healthy and plays football for another 10 years. You've got to figure if Cutler could start for the Bears for 10 years he's at least worth the two first round picks. You know the Bears would blow at least two more first rounders on QB's in the next ten years if they didn't have Cutler. That alone seems to make it worth it for me. Physically, Cutler is a good fit for playing in the NFC North and he'll be embraced in Chicago so hard and so fast, he'll be quite scared.
The one thing nobody has talked about yet is Cutler's contract. He's received most of the money already due to the bonus structure of the deal. I believe he's making just over $1 million this year. For a starting QB, that's insane. I've always been of the position that if the Broncos had just offered Cutler an extension he would've taken it and it would've been all good between Cutler and the Broncos. Yet the Broncos chose not to offer an extension, nor has an extension been announced in conjunction with this trade. Given the acrimony between the Broncos franchise and Cutler it's quite possible that the Bears never spoke to Cutler before acquiring him. At the least, no substantive contract took place. Just something to watch out for in the coming weeks. I wonder if the Bears are waiting for the Giants to extend Eli? It will be interesting to see which QB signs his extension first, especially given the current economic climate and upcoming CBA talks.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Cutler To The Bears
According to Jay Glazer of FoxSports.com and reported by ProFootballTalk.com Jay Cutler is a Chicago Bear. The rumored cost of Cutler - 2 first round picks, a third round pick and Kyle Orton. The Bears will receive Cutler and fifth round pick from the Broncos.
So how does this look for the Bears? It could be worse. I think they would've been better off swapping Urlacher or Hester instead of a 2nd first round pick but they needed Cutler. Orton is extraneous with Cutler on board so throwing him in the deal amounts to nothing. For a Bears team with a lot of needs this is a pretty big deal.
Look for the Bears to get a bit more active with the available free agents. I could see both Orlando Pace and Torry Holt getting long looks by the Bears now. They need OL and WR help and with only 1 pick on the first day of the draft they will have to look elsewhere to fill those needs. Not to mention they need pass-rush help, another corner or two and possibly two safeties. Maybe they turn around now and deal Urlacher for an additional second round pick. I doubt it, but with the Cutler acquisition the Chicago front office has bought themselves at least a year's worth of goodwill.
This should help take a little bit of leverage away from Donovan McNabb, the Bears were always the go-to team in any McNabb trade scenario. I think Brandon Marshall should be able to hold most of his fantasy value but I would expect Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokely to lose some value with the loss of Cutler. Tony Scheffler will have a new address soon enough. One guy I like more today is Greg Olsen. Cutler loves him some tight ends and Olsen is very similar to Tony Scheffler.
More thoughts later. I can't wait to hear the reactions from Washington and New York.
So how does this look for the Bears? It could be worse. I think they would've been better off swapping Urlacher or Hester instead of a 2nd first round pick but they needed Cutler. Orton is extraneous with Cutler on board so throwing him in the deal amounts to nothing. For a Bears team with a lot of needs this is a pretty big deal.
Look for the Bears to get a bit more active with the available free agents. I could see both Orlando Pace and Torry Holt getting long looks by the Bears now. They need OL and WR help and with only 1 pick on the first day of the draft they will have to look elsewhere to fill those needs. Not to mention they need pass-rush help, another corner or two and possibly two safeties. Maybe they turn around now and deal Urlacher for an additional second round pick. I doubt it, but with the Cutler acquisition the Chicago front office has bought themselves at least a year's worth of goodwill.
This should help take a little bit of leverage away from Donovan McNabb, the Bears were always the go-to team in any McNabb trade scenario. I think Brandon Marshall should be able to hold most of his fantasy value but I would expect Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokely to lose some value with the loss of Cutler. Tony Scheffler will have a new address soon enough. One guy I like more today is Greg Olsen. Cutler loves him some tight ends and Olsen is very similar to Tony Scheffler.
More thoughts later. I can't wait to hear the reactions from Washington and New York.
Can Cutler Cut It?
Tampa Bay Online is reporting that the Broncos asking price for Jay Cutler starts at two first-round draft picks.
That's already a steep price. In addition to that I'm willing to bet they're also looking for a young player or two, if not a potential starting QB and/or a centerpiece for their rebuilding defense. Remember, Tony Scheffler is on the trading block as well, don't count out a package deal. This will most likely end up being a three or four team trade as it is. Very few teams have the ammo to match what the Broncos want in a straight-up trade. Only the Redskins or the Jets are probably crazy enough to give up three or more first-round picks in order to sweep in and get Cutler before another team can make the Broncos a better or more practical offer.
Is Cutler worth all of this? My gut says, probably. I don't think he's ever going to be a pinpoint accurate passer. He's going to throw a few more interceptions than you like. But he's got a cannon and can make every single throw there is on a football field. He's cocky but that would probably fly in a younger locker room where he is the unquestioned leader. Worst-case scenario is that he is a slightly above-average starter. Think Jake Delhomme or even Gus Frerotte with much more physical talent. That's a borderline Pro Bowler with Super Bowl potential. Remember, not so long ago Rex Grossman started a Super Bowl game.
So let's try to simplify things a bit. Here's a list of teams that will not being acquiring Cutler. We'll call this the:
Not A Chance In Hell List
Colts
Patriots
Steelers
Packers
Saints
Cowboys
Giants
Falcons
Ravens
Bengals
Bronco's Wouldn't Do It List
Chiefs (Broncos would probably do it for Cassel and a first rounder)
Chargers (Straight up for Rivers who is in the last year of his deal)
Raiders (They'd probably offer Russell straight up and the Broncos would laugh)
*Note, the Broncos play in the same division of these three teams. They won't trade Cutler in the division unless their getting Cassel or Rivers in return. Yeah, probably not happening. Try about 95% Not Happening.
Extreme Long Shots
Seahawks - The Hawks would have do something like send the Broncos Hasselbeck, their second round pick, swap first round picks with the Broncos and throw in a future third round pick. Might be worth it for the Hawks. The Broncos could draft Sanchez with the Seahawks pick (or Stafford if he fell) and start Hasselbeck for the next 1-2 seasons.
Eagles - Would the Eagles give up McNabb, Kolb and a draft pick? Probably not. I don't know if McNabb would fit McDaniels' system and I really doubt Cutler could fit into Andy Reid's system. But both coaches would be arrogant enough to try it. Both quarterbacks are also looking for new contracts. The Broncos have recent acquired three former Eagles, if that means anything.
Texans - Could the Texans be tempted to move the oft-injured Matt Schuab? Schuab and their first round pick would certainly be a tempting offer for the Broncos. I doubt that the Texans would offer such a deal, but you never know.
Jaguars - Pretty much the same deal as the teams above, probably most similar to the Seahawks deal. The Jags could offer David Garrard, their second round pick, swap first round picks and give up another player or future pick. Again, I'm not sure the Broncos would want Garrard and I think it's too early for the Jags to give up on the QB they just extended last year.
Titans - This would be the interesting one. Would Denver have any interest in Kerry Collins, Vince Young and some other picks and/or players. The Titans could throw in LenDale White or Jevon Kearse. If the Titans could get Cutler without giving up one of their first day picks this year or next I think they would think long and hard about the deal. (That's what she said)
Bills - They just shook up the team by acquiring T.O. and they seem committed to young Trent Edwards. They could end up being a landing spot for Tony Scheffler though. The Bills could jump in on this deal if it becomes a multiple-team monstrosity and the Bills decide that they're going to move Jason Peters. If the Bills could get Cutler and Scheffler for Peters and Edwards I think that they would at least have to seriously consider it. It's a good year to be looking for an OT in the draft.
Miami - Jay Cutler just doesn't seem like a Parcells guy does he? The Dolphins have some nice young talent including two recent second round draft picks at QB. Would the Dolphins give up Henne and Pennington for Cutler? Maybe. I don't think that it would be a slam dunk 'yes'. The Dolphins have their QB plan in place, look for them to stick to it.
Rams - The Rams could offer the same thing as the Jags or Seahawks. A veteran QB (Bulger), a second round pick, the right to move up in the first round and a future pick. It would seem to be a waste to put Cutler's cannon arm indoors but he's got a lot more mileage left than Bulger does. Bulger might fit McDaniels' system but his health is a major question mark.
Cardinals - This one is extremely intriguing. Even if they could trade Matt Leinart straight up for Cutler I can't see Cutler or Warner sitting for even a quarter of a game, much less a season. So if the Cards really were interested in acquiring Cutler, it would be Warner who had to go. If the Cards just want to jump in as a third team they could offer up Leinart and try to get a draft pick to draft another young QB. Again, this is extremely doubtful but shit does happen.
Vikings - Despite what they say I would think the Vikings would say yes if they were offered Cutler for Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson. That's not going to happen though. I don't think the Vikings will be involved in this unless they can trade Chester Taylor away for another asset to make a differnt sort of offer, or get in on a three or four team deal.
Again, these are all long-shot possibilities. I'd say there's about an 80% chance of these deals NOT HAPPENING.
So if you add up all of the teams on the Not A Chance In Hell List (10 teams), the Broncos Wouldn't Do It List (3 teams) and the Extreme Longshots List (10 teams) you have 23 teams that most likely won't be acquiring Jay Cutler. Add the Broncos themselves to that list and you have 24 teams. That means there's only about 8 teams with a realistic desire to have Jay Cutler as their starting QB this year. Well, 8 teams that are just in the position to do so at this time, I'm sure a lot of teams would like to get Cutler depending on the circumstances. Those 8 teams are:
Lions
Bears
Redskins
Panthers
Bucs
49er's
Jets
Browns
The teams are listed in no particular order. Random thoughts on these teams:
I would think that the Lions should jump all over Cutler but I don't think they're going to. The Broncos don't want the first pick so the Lions would either have to make this a multiple-team trade or make some deals of their own before dealing with the Broncos. Plus the rumors are swirling that they're falling for Stafford.
Boy do the Bears need Cutler. He's got the arm to play in that division in December and the Bears offense isn't afraid to let the quarterback sling it around. Just think of Cutler as Rex Grossman on steroids. Which is basically what the Bears need. Their problem is they don't really have the goods to get Cutler. I'm guessing that Orton would be thrown in any deal. For the Bears to make it interesting Devin Hester and/or Brian Urlacher would have to be involved. Is it worth it for the Bears to gut their team? Probably. They've struggle to find a QB for two decades. They just need to man up and go for it. They can't afford to draft another first round QB and fail.
I hear the Redskins want Cutler insanely bad. If they get him the rumors of the Mastermind coming to DC next year will probably come true. The Redskins really, really, lack the ammo to get the deal done and may have to just bankrupt the future to get Cutler. I doubt the Broncos want Campbell and he's worth maybe a third round pick on the open market. The Redskins would literally have to give up at least three first round picks.
Now the Panthers make a ton of sense. Jake Delhomme, Julius Peppers and a second round pick for Cutler and Scheffler. Sure the Panthers would devestate their pass rush but I get the impression that Peppers is gone one way or the other. There's no way to replace him on the open market so they'd have to look through the draft regardless. If they did this deal they would solve their QB and TE problems, which would basically complete their offense. They could dedicate their entire draft to the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos would get a premium pass-rusher and a stop-gap QB who has at least one more year in him. Pretty good deal.
The Bucs are another prime landing spot due to their glaring, gaping hole at QB. If they thought Luke McCown was the future they wouldn't have tried to get Cutler the first time. The problem is they have even less ammo than the Redskins when it comes to this trade. I mean they've really got nothing to offer. It would probably take more draft picks than they gave up in the Gruden deal, considering they don't have a second rounder to give up this year.
The 49er's are another team with a terrible QB situation. Cutler would be viewed as a hero-type in San Fran (think Philly when T.O. first showed up) and it would by Singletary the year or two he needs to rebuild the team properly. I'm not sure that the 49'ers have the ammo to get it done, but their first round pick might become more valuable to the Broncos if Mark Sanchez were still on the board. If that was the case, maybe two first round picks would be enough. And they'd probably throw in Alex Smith, just to drag him closer to Ryan Leaf-type infamy.
Poor Jets. If all of this had been going on before Favre had retired, think of the press headlines that couldn've generated. Favre and the Jets first round pick (and change) to the Broncos for Cutler? I doubt it would've work, but something tells me Favre would've been at least a little bit interested. The Jets may have a few pieces to offer the Broncos (David Harris, Thomas Jones, Leon Washington) I'm not sure they can afford to part with any of them. The Jets would ultimately have to overpay drastically in the form of draft picks, just like the Redskins or Bucs.
Just how much alike are the systems of Charlie Weis and Josh McDaniels? Because Brady Quinn did seem to run the former's very well. Could Cutler and Quinn be dealt straight up for each other? Nope. What about that rumored Shaun Rodgers and Quinn for Cutler deal? Now that deal really does seem to make a great deal of sense. I'm not sure that it's going to happen though. The Browns really, really need Shaun Rodgers for their defense to have a prayer next year. Plus the fans are still on board the Brady Train. If he became a superstar in Denver the Cleveland fans will hold it against Cutler, fair or not, unless he wins Super Bowls.
So I wrote all of this, I must have an idea about where Cutler's going right? I think I have even less of an idea now than when I started. If I had to guess I would say that it's either going to be an exremely convuluted multi-team trade or a single team will overpay drastically. If it goes the multi-team way Cutler could end up on any one of the eight teams, or possibly even 23 teams depending on how crazy the deal got. If Cutler is dealt for a massive package of draft picks and players look for the Jets or the Redskins to be starting Jay Cutler at QB next season.
That's already a steep price. In addition to that I'm willing to bet they're also looking for a young player or two, if not a potential starting QB and/or a centerpiece for their rebuilding defense. Remember, Tony Scheffler is on the trading block as well, don't count out a package deal. This will most likely end up being a three or four team trade as it is. Very few teams have the ammo to match what the Broncos want in a straight-up trade. Only the Redskins or the Jets are probably crazy enough to give up three or more first-round picks in order to sweep in and get Cutler before another team can make the Broncos a better or more practical offer.
Is Cutler worth all of this? My gut says, probably. I don't think he's ever going to be a pinpoint accurate passer. He's going to throw a few more interceptions than you like. But he's got a cannon and can make every single throw there is on a football field. He's cocky but that would probably fly in a younger locker room where he is the unquestioned leader. Worst-case scenario is that he is a slightly above-average starter. Think Jake Delhomme or even Gus Frerotte with much more physical talent. That's a borderline Pro Bowler with Super Bowl potential. Remember, not so long ago Rex Grossman started a Super Bowl game.
So let's try to simplify things a bit. Here's a list of teams that will not being acquiring Cutler. We'll call this the:
Not A Chance In Hell List
Colts
Patriots
Steelers
Packers
Saints
Cowboys
Giants
Falcons
Ravens
Bengals
Bronco's Wouldn't Do It List
Chiefs (Broncos would probably do it for Cassel and a first rounder)
Chargers (Straight up for Rivers who is in the last year of his deal)
Raiders (They'd probably offer Russell straight up and the Broncos would laugh)
*Note, the Broncos play in the same division of these three teams. They won't trade Cutler in the division unless their getting Cassel or Rivers in return. Yeah, probably not happening. Try about 95% Not Happening.
Extreme Long Shots
Seahawks - The Hawks would have do something like send the Broncos Hasselbeck, their second round pick, swap first round picks with the Broncos and throw in a future third round pick. Might be worth it for the Hawks. The Broncos could draft Sanchez with the Seahawks pick (or Stafford if he fell) and start Hasselbeck for the next 1-2 seasons.
Eagles - Would the Eagles give up McNabb, Kolb and a draft pick? Probably not. I don't know if McNabb would fit McDaniels' system and I really doubt Cutler could fit into Andy Reid's system. But both coaches would be arrogant enough to try it. Both quarterbacks are also looking for new contracts. The Broncos have recent acquired three former Eagles, if that means anything.
Texans - Could the Texans be tempted to move the oft-injured Matt Schuab? Schuab and their first round pick would certainly be a tempting offer for the Broncos. I doubt that the Texans would offer such a deal, but you never know.
Jaguars - Pretty much the same deal as the teams above, probably most similar to the Seahawks deal. The Jags could offer David Garrard, their second round pick, swap first round picks and give up another player or future pick. Again, I'm not sure the Broncos would want Garrard and I think it's too early for the Jags to give up on the QB they just extended last year.
Titans - This would be the interesting one. Would Denver have any interest in Kerry Collins, Vince Young and some other picks and/or players. The Titans could throw in LenDale White or Jevon Kearse. If the Titans could get Cutler without giving up one of their first day picks this year or next I think they would think long and hard about the deal. (That's what she said)
Bills - They just shook up the team by acquiring T.O. and they seem committed to young Trent Edwards. They could end up being a landing spot for Tony Scheffler though. The Bills could jump in on this deal if it becomes a multiple-team monstrosity and the Bills decide that they're going to move Jason Peters. If the Bills could get Cutler and Scheffler for Peters and Edwards I think that they would at least have to seriously consider it. It's a good year to be looking for an OT in the draft.
Miami - Jay Cutler just doesn't seem like a Parcells guy does he? The Dolphins have some nice young talent including two recent second round draft picks at QB. Would the Dolphins give up Henne and Pennington for Cutler? Maybe. I don't think that it would be a slam dunk 'yes'. The Dolphins have their QB plan in place, look for them to stick to it.
Rams - The Rams could offer the same thing as the Jags or Seahawks. A veteran QB (Bulger), a second round pick, the right to move up in the first round and a future pick. It would seem to be a waste to put Cutler's cannon arm indoors but he's got a lot more mileage left than Bulger does. Bulger might fit McDaniels' system but his health is a major question mark.
Cardinals - This one is extremely intriguing. Even if they could trade Matt Leinart straight up for Cutler I can't see Cutler or Warner sitting for even a quarter of a game, much less a season. So if the Cards really were interested in acquiring Cutler, it would be Warner who had to go. If the Cards just want to jump in as a third team they could offer up Leinart and try to get a draft pick to draft another young QB. Again, this is extremely doubtful but shit does happen.
Vikings - Despite what they say I would think the Vikings would say yes if they were offered Cutler for Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson. That's not going to happen though. I don't think the Vikings will be involved in this unless they can trade Chester Taylor away for another asset to make a differnt sort of offer, or get in on a three or four team deal.
Again, these are all long-shot possibilities. I'd say there's about an 80% chance of these deals NOT HAPPENING.
So if you add up all of the teams on the Not A Chance In Hell List (10 teams), the Broncos Wouldn't Do It List (3 teams) and the Extreme Longshots List (10 teams) you have 23 teams that most likely won't be acquiring Jay Cutler. Add the Broncos themselves to that list and you have 24 teams. That means there's only about 8 teams with a realistic desire to have Jay Cutler as their starting QB this year. Well, 8 teams that are just in the position to do so at this time, I'm sure a lot of teams would like to get Cutler depending on the circumstances. Those 8 teams are:
Lions
Bears
Redskins
Panthers
Bucs
49er's
Jets
Browns
The teams are listed in no particular order. Random thoughts on these teams:
I would think that the Lions should jump all over Cutler but I don't think they're going to. The Broncos don't want the first pick so the Lions would either have to make this a multiple-team trade or make some deals of their own before dealing with the Broncos. Plus the rumors are swirling that they're falling for Stafford.
Boy do the Bears need Cutler. He's got the arm to play in that division in December and the Bears offense isn't afraid to let the quarterback sling it around. Just think of Cutler as Rex Grossman on steroids. Which is basically what the Bears need. Their problem is they don't really have the goods to get Cutler. I'm guessing that Orton would be thrown in any deal. For the Bears to make it interesting Devin Hester and/or Brian Urlacher would have to be involved. Is it worth it for the Bears to gut their team? Probably. They've struggle to find a QB for two decades. They just need to man up and go for it. They can't afford to draft another first round QB and fail.
I hear the Redskins want Cutler insanely bad. If they get him the rumors of the Mastermind coming to DC next year will probably come true. The Redskins really, really, lack the ammo to get the deal done and may have to just bankrupt the future to get Cutler. I doubt the Broncos want Campbell and he's worth maybe a third round pick on the open market. The Redskins would literally have to give up at least three first round picks.
Now the Panthers make a ton of sense. Jake Delhomme, Julius Peppers and a second round pick for Cutler and Scheffler. Sure the Panthers would devestate their pass rush but I get the impression that Peppers is gone one way or the other. There's no way to replace him on the open market so they'd have to look through the draft regardless. If they did this deal they would solve their QB and TE problems, which would basically complete their offense. They could dedicate their entire draft to the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos would get a premium pass-rusher and a stop-gap QB who has at least one more year in him. Pretty good deal.
The Bucs are another prime landing spot due to their glaring, gaping hole at QB. If they thought Luke McCown was the future they wouldn't have tried to get Cutler the first time. The problem is they have even less ammo than the Redskins when it comes to this trade. I mean they've really got nothing to offer. It would probably take more draft picks than they gave up in the Gruden deal, considering they don't have a second rounder to give up this year.
The 49er's are another team with a terrible QB situation. Cutler would be viewed as a hero-type in San Fran (think Philly when T.O. first showed up) and it would by Singletary the year or two he needs to rebuild the team properly. I'm not sure that the 49'ers have the ammo to get it done, but their first round pick might become more valuable to the Broncos if Mark Sanchez were still on the board. If that was the case, maybe two first round picks would be enough. And they'd probably throw in Alex Smith, just to drag him closer to Ryan Leaf-type infamy.
Poor Jets. If all of this had been going on before Favre had retired, think of the press headlines that couldn've generated. Favre and the Jets first round pick (and change) to the Broncos for Cutler? I doubt it would've work, but something tells me Favre would've been at least a little bit interested. The Jets may have a few pieces to offer the Broncos (David Harris, Thomas Jones, Leon Washington) I'm not sure they can afford to part with any of them. The Jets would ultimately have to overpay drastically in the form of draft picks, just like the Redskins or Bucs.
Just how much alike are the systems of Charlie Weis and Josh McDaniels? Because Brady Quinn did seem to run the former's very well. Could Cutler and Quinn be dealt straight up for each other? Nope. What about that rumored Shaun Rodgers and Quinn for Cutler deal? Now that deal really does seem to make a great deal of sense. I'm not sure that it's going to happen though. The Browns really, really need Shaun Rodgers for their defense to have a prayer next year. Plus the fans are still on board the Brady Train. If he became a superstar in Denver the Cleveland fans will hold it against Cutler, fair or not, unless he wins Super Bowls.
So I wrote all of this, I must have an idea about where Cutler's going right? I think I have even less of an idea now than when I started. If I had to guess I would say that it's either going to be an exremely convuluted multi-team trade or a single team will overpay drastically. If it goes the multi-team way Cutler could end up on any one of the eight teams, or possibly even 23 teams depending on how crazy the deal got. If Cutler is dealt for a massive package of draft picks and players look for the Jets or the Redskins to be starting Jay Cutler at QB next season.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Shuffle Off To Buffalo
So T.O. is a Buffalo Bill. He got a fully-guaranteed, 1-year $6.5 million dollar contract. Let's peep some of the different layers of this deal.
For the most part, this was a home run for the Bills. Do I believe that Terrell Owens destroys football teams? Yes. But not in Year 1. For T.O. Year 1 is all about proving the naysayers wrong and collecting that big first year money. Could the Bills have waited and maybe saved a few million? Could they have structured a contract that paid him based upon how many games he played? Sure. Would either of those options made T.O. happy? Not a prayer. The Bills paid T.O. fairly close to market value by choice. They've done a masterful job of setting the table here. T.O. has to be on top of his game (on and off the field) if he ever wants another payday and another day in the spotlight. He's paid and he has to be motivated somewhat by all of the teams who came out publicly and said they had no interest in T.O. or that T.O. was a cancer or that T.O. drops the ball too much. Worst case scenario the Bills cut him mid-season after he's decimated Trent Edwards' confidence completely. Best case scenario T.O. frees up Lee Evans to run wild and the holes for the running backs get bigger with each step back the opposing safety takes.
The Bills needed to make a splash. They really hadn't done so in years, pry since the Drew Bledsoe trade. If they want to maintain a stable franchise in Buffalo they have to either win a lot or garner a great deal of national attention which will in turn bring prime-time games and coverage back to Buffalo. This move should help the Toronto game quite a bit as Canadians are probably still curious about "that Owens guy".
Buffalo is running a bit of a locker room risk here. There's not a large veteran presence in the locker room to help keep Owens in check. Jauron is a good coach but he's on the hot seat as it is. I actually think this is going to be a very good experience for Trent Edwards. First off, he needed another weapon not named Evans or Lynch so bad it was actually kind of sad. Owens was the biggest playmaker available right now, by far. Owens has come out before and talked about how he makes quarterbacks better. In this case I actually think that Owens is going to be very motivated to turn Trent Edwards into a star. Because that will prove that T.O. makes the quarterback better, not T.O. needs a great quarterback to excel. Where were the Bills going before this move? They were 0-6 in the division last season and they've lost some players in free agency already.
The city of Buffalo is a unique place to live and be a sports fan. They only have the Bills and the Sabres and neither team exactly has a history of getting it done at crunch time. Every year these fans get their hearts crushed. And every off-season neither team has enough cash to keep their own players, much less buy somebody elses. But these fans slowly build up their faith and by the time the season starts, the whole city is ready to go. And they ultimately get let down, be it by the players, the coaches, ownership, management and the ever-fickle Gods of Sport. Hear this Terrell Eldorado Owens, these fans will love you in training camp. These fans will love you on Opening Day. They'll even love you after you drop that first easy pass any NFL wide receiver should catch. But if you open your mouth and that T.O. shit comes out of it you might as well just go home. This isn't Dallas where they encourage personalities to be larger than the team. This isn't Philly where the fanbase was so desperate for a playmaker that had T.O. never turned on the team he would still be the King of Philly right now. Those people loved T.O. so much deep down that when he was cut free a few days ago that they began to remember the "good" T.O. that they had for a little under a season. Couldn't happen, too many hearts broken, too many bridges burned. Beware son, beware.
After this there will be 1 A-Rod post and then I'm declaring a "Terrell Owens/Alex Rodriguez Free-Zone" until March 15. Unless either of them die they will not be mentioned in this space and I don't even think I'll even feel like talking about either of them at the bar over a couple of cold adult beverages.
For the most part, this was a home run for the Bills. Do I believe that Terrell Owens destroys football teams? Yes. But not in Year 1. For T.O. Year 1 is all about proving the naysayers wrong and collecting that big first year money. Could the Bills have waited and maybe saved a few million? Could they have structured a contract that paid him based upon how many games he played? Sure. Would either of those options made T.O. happy? Not a prayer. The Bills paid T.O. fairly close to market value by choice. They've done a masterful job of setting the table here. T.O. has to be on top of his game (on and off the field) if he ever wants another payday and another day in the spotlight. He's paid and he has to be motivated somewhat by all of the teams who came out publicly and said they had no interest in T.O. or that T.O. was a cancer or that T.O. drops the ball too much. Worst case scenario the Bills cut him mid-season after he's decimated Trent Edwards' confidence completely. Best case scenario T.O. frees up Lee Evans to run wild and the holes for the running backs get bigger with each step back the opposing safety takes.
The Bills needed to make a splash. They really hadn't done so in years, pry since the Drew Bledsoe trade. If they want to maintain a stable franchise in Buffalo they have to either win a lot or garner a great deal of national attention which will in turn bring prime-time games and coverage back to Buffalo. This move should help the Toronto game quite a bit as Canadians are probably still curious about "that Owens guy".
Buffalo is running a bit of a locker room risk here. There's not a large veteran presence in the locker room to help keep Owens in check. Jauron is a good coach but he's on the hot seat as it is. I actually think this is going to be a very good experience for Trent Edwards. First off, he needed another weapon not named Evans or Lynch so bad it was actually kind of sad. Owens was the biggest playmaker available right now, by far. Owens has come out before and talked about how he makes quarterbacks better. In this case I actually think that Owens is going to be very motivated to turn Trent Edwards into a star. Because that will prove that T.O. makes the quarterback better, not T.O. needs a great quarterback to excel. Where were the Bills going before this move? They were 0-6 in the division last season and they've lost some players in free agency already.
The city of Buffalo is a unique place to live and be a sports fan. They only have the Bills and the Sabres and neither team exactly has a history of getting it done at crunch time. Every year these fans get their hearts crushed. And every off-season neither team has enough cash to keep their own players, much less buy somebody elses. But these fans slowly build up their faith and by the time the season starts, the whole city is ready to go. And they ultimately get let down, be it by the players, the coaches, ownership, management and the ever-fickle Gods of Sport. Hear this Terrell Eldorado Owens, these fans will love you in training camp. These fans will love you on Opening Day. They'll even love you after you drop that first easy pass any NFL wide receiver should catch. But if you open your mouth and that T.O. shit comes out of it you might as well just go home. This isn't Dallas where they encourage personalities to be larger than the team. This isn't Philly where the fanbase was so desperate for a playmaker that had T.O. never turned on the team he would still be the King of Philly right now. Those people loved T.O. so much deep down that when he was cut free a few days ago that they began to remember the "good" T.O. that they had for a little under a season. Couldn't happen, too many hearts broken, too many bridges burned. Beware son, beware.
After this there will be 1 A-Rod post and then I'm declaring a "Terrell Owens/Alex Rodriguez Free-Zone" until March 15. Unless either of them die they will not be mentioned in this space and I don't even think I'll even feel like talking about either of them at the bar over a couple of cold adult beverages.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
T,O. Gets TKO'd
Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is a pattern. The Cowboys are the third franchise to cut ties with Terrell Owens. Owens has only played for three teams. (Although he once was traded to the Ravens and he promptly decided he didn't want to play for the Ravens. So we really don't count that as being on a team.) So what does it all mean? Well that's too deep of a question to explore today so let's just examine the obvious T.O. fallout.
The list of suitors for T.O. is going to be tiny. The money will be even smaller. Except for maybe the Raiders. They're the wild card and the obvious fit for T.O. at first glance. Al Davis might be willing to throw T.O. $5+ million for a season or two. Why not? T.O. could get his 8 billion targets per game and Russell would at least have a competent, healthy WR. It would ultimately be a disaster but what the hell right? Anyway, he only goes to a non-Al Davis team on a 1 year near the minimum with a couple of incentives deal. Let's just list the teams that Owens will NOT be playing for: Cowboys, 49er's, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Patriots, Dolphins, Chiefs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Falcons, Browns and Chargers. That's 18 teams. Add in the Raiders and it's 19 teams. Out of the remaining 13 teams I really can't see the Colts, Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Bengals, Lions, Rams or Texans adding Owens. So that leaves 5 teams (not owned by Al Davis) that I could see having some possible interest in Owens: Jaguars, Jets, Broncos, Titans and Bills. The Jaguars, Titans and Bills would only probably kick the tires because of positional needs and the fact that Owens could be had on the cheap. He would instantly be the best receiver on either the Jaguars or Titans and he could be the answer the Bills have been looking for opposite Lee Evans. Thing is I doubt any of the those 3 teams have a QB that could handle/satisfy Owens. The Jets are an interesting study. My guess would be they're not interested but it could be a fit, except for the Jets glaring hole at QB. The Jets will need to sell seats in their new stadium and Coles just hit the road. The Broncos would represent the most interesting option. Josh McDaniels saw Randy Moss reform why not T.O.? He could work opposite Brandon Marshall or replace Marshall for a period of time if Marshall is suspended. Is it going to happen? I doubt it. But remember, Brian Dawkins was a T.O. supporter and he's now one of the leaders in that Denver locker room.
Personally I've felt Owens has been a bit overrated and not worth the trouble for about the last 5 years. I hope that he goes to the Raiders and it fails spectacularly. Those press conferences alone will be worth the cost of admission. If Owens was properly motivated could he help a team? Absolutely. But it's always been about T.O. and that's the problem. He and Al Davis really deserve each other, just like Owens and Jerry Jones. I've said ever since Owens left Philly that no team with him on the roster would ever win a meaningful game. I stand by that.
What does this do for fantasy football values? Let's just look at the Cowboys real quick. I'm expecting Felix Jones to start, (playing the Julius Jones role) with Barber going back to his short yardage/redzone/4th quarter role. Without Owens both of those backs should be a bit more involved. I think this won't hurt Romo's value at all. Romo will no longer have to worry about forcing balls to Owens and Roy Williams is a better downfield threat than Owens at this point of his career. Williams could easily become a top-10 WR this year in fantasy. This solidifies Witten as the #1 fantasy TE in my mind. He should see increased redzone looks and this should offset any touches he might have lost to their other TE, Bennett. I don't think the Cowboys will make a big move at WR, maybe they bring in a veteran Bobby Ingram-type but that's about it. They'll draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th round and move on. If I had to rate the other Cowboys WR's right now it would be 1) Williams 2) Miles Austin 3) Patrick Crayton 4) Sam Hurd.
I know more than a few people in Philadelphia have suggested that Owens could return. McNabb would love him again and it would be all good. Not going to happen. You or I have a better chance of playing WR for the Eagles next year. Not even if he offered to pay the team a salary and offered to kiss Andy Reid's bare ass on Sportscenter. Not going to happen.
The list of suitors for T.O. is going to be tiny. The money will be even smaller. Except for maybe the Raiders. They're the wild card and the obvious fit for T.O. at first glance. Al Davis might be willing to throw T.O. $5+ million for a season or two. Why not? T.O. could get his 8 billion targets per game and Russell would at least have a competent, healthy WR. It would ultimately be a disaster but what the hell right? Anyway, he only goes to a non-Al Davis team on a 1 year near the minimum with a couple of incentives deal. Let's just list the teams that Owens will NOT be playing for: Cowboys, 49er's, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Patriots, Dolphins, Chiefs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Falcons, Browns and Chargers. That's 18 teams. Add in the Raiders and it's 19 teams. Out of the remaining 13 teams I really can't see the Colts, Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Bengals, Lions, Rams or Texans adding Owens. So that leaves 5 teams (not owned by Al Davis) that I could see having some possible interest in Owens: Jaguars, Jets, Broncos, Titans and Bills. The Jaguars, Titans and Bills would only probably kick the tires because of positional needs and the fact that Owens could be had on the cheap. He would instantly be the best receiver on either the Jaguars or Titans and he could be the answer the Bills have been looking for opposite Lee Evans. Thing is I doubt any of the those 3 teams have a QB that could handle/satisfy Owens. The Jets are an interesting study. My guess would be they're not interested but it could be a fit, except for the Jets glaring hole at QB. The Jets will need to sell seats in their new stadium and Coles just hit the road. The Broncos would represent the most interesting option. Josh McDaniels saw Randy Moss reform why not T.O.? He could work opposite Brandon Marshall or replace Marshall for a period of time if Marshall is suspended. Is it going to happen? I doubt it. But remember, Brian Dawkins was a T.O. supporter and he's now one of the leaders in that Denver locker room.
Personally I've felt Owens has been a bit overrated and not worth the trouble for about the last 5 years. I hope that he goes to the Raiders and it fails spectacularly. Those press conferences alone will be worth the cost of admission. If Owens was properly motivated could he help a team? Absolutely. But it's always been about T.O. and that's the problem. He and Al Davis really deserve each other, just like Owens and Jerry Jones. I've said ever since Owens left Philly that no team with him on the roster would ever win a meaningful game. I stand by that.
What does this do for fantasy football values? Let's just look at the Cowboys real quick. I'm expecting Felix Jones to start, (playing the Julius Jones role) with Barber going back to his short yardage/redzone/4th quarter role. Without Owens both of those backs should be a bit more involved. I think this won't hurt Romo's value at all. Romo will no longer have to worry about forcing balls to Owens and Roy Williams is a better downfield threat than Owens at this point of his career. Williams could easily become a top-10 WR this year in fantasy. This solidifies Witten as the #1 fantasy TE in my mind. He should see increased redzone looks and this should offset any touches he might have lost to their other TE, Bennett. I don't think the Cowboys will make a big move at WR, maybe they bring in a veteran Bobby Ingram-type but that's about it. They'll draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th round and move on. If I had to rate the other Cowboys WR's right now it would be 1) Williams 2) Miles Austin 3) Patrick Crayton 4) Sam Hurd.
I know more than a few people in Philadelphia have suggested that Owens could return. McNabb would love him again and it would be all good. Not going to happen. You or I have a better chance of playing WR for the Eagles next year. Not even if he offered to pay the team a salary and offered to kiss Andy Reid's bare ass on Sportscenter. Not going to happen.
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