Walking Through The Wire (Week 3 Edition)

Here’s the deal. I’m not a fan of the straight “Waiver Wire” column. It’s impossible to know who is available in your league and what your roster is like. Unless of course, I’m you. That’s your job. You’re not called a “fantasy owner” for nothing.

So I’m just going to walk you through my thought process as I go through the waiver wire in a couple of my leagues. I’m not telling you to do the same thing, but you should have a process. You can’t blindly cut somebody for the player who scored the most points last week. There’s a bit more to it then that. (That’s what she said!)

Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster, Denarius Moore or Eric Decker

I’ve got Arian Foster on a team that I drafted before his injury. I haven’t really caught a break and I’m 0-2. Now what? Due to my poor record, I have the first waiver claim this week. The question is, who do I pick up?

First off, this is a standard league with a RB/WR flex. No PPR. So I would probably go with Jones over McCluster. But I’m really hesitant to roll with any Chiefs right now. Whoever I pick-up will probably have to start for me in Week 3. Needless to say I’m not jumping up and down about starting Thomas Jones at San Diego.

It’s interesting to note that this league is hosted by CBS Sports. Dexter McCluster is listed as a WR and kick/punt return TD’s do NOT count for the player.

Now I also have to balance possible value for the rest of the season. Eric Decker should be in the starting lineup for the Broncos going forward. Denarius Moore already might be the best Raiders WR, but who knows if he starts when Jacoby Ford and Heyward-Bey return.

In a PPR league I would go another way. But in this case, I feel like I have to pick up Thomas Jones. I really want to go with my gut and pick up McCluster anyway. But this is a standard league and Jones looks like the best bet to score a TD. Well, if the Chiefs can ever score one.

Fred Davis or Tony Gonzalez

I wound up with Brandon Pettigrew in this league and I dropped him in Week 2 for Tony Gonzalez. The Eagles are historically bad against the TE. Too bad Kevin Boss still isn’t on the Giants. I had planned on just streaming a TE with a good match-up in Week 3. But Tony G has looked good enough to consider keeping around. Or has he? Gonzalez is really the only player on the Falcons offense right now that looks really good. Everybody else is just slightly out of sync.

I’m really trying to talk myself into Gonzalez here. And why not? He’s safer. If there’s such a thing. I’m just not sure if we’re writing off Chris Cooley too soon. If Cooley gets somewhat healthy, he could certainly cut into the number of targets Fred Davis is getting right now.

Standard league. Non-PPR. And I just lost Jamaal Charles. I feel like Davis is the “Swing For The Fences” pick here. Davis could finish as a top-7 TE, even in a standard league. Gonzalez feels like he will finish safely in the 10-to-12 range for TE’s.

There are a few decent TE options on the wire beside Davis. Not to mention that everybody else already has a decent TE. So I’m going to hang onto Gonzalez, at least for the moment. If I make any trade involving a TE, odds are other owners will value him more than Davis. Plus I do like Tony G vs. the Bucs this week.

Denarius Moore or Dexter McCluster

Again McCluster is listed as a WR. This is a standard, non-PPR league. But it’s a traditional 2 RB, 3 WR lineup. I’m pretty much set, but I have a rotating roster spot that I can burn. The waiver wire order resets every week, so there’s no point in holding on to a waiver claim priority.

So McCluster or Moore? I think I’m scared. I just considered the fact that I might rather have the Raider because I trust their offense more. Scary thought, right? I think I am going with Moore here. He was a training camp and preseason star. Not to mention he would be an excellent complement to Jacoby Ford. If McCluster somehow wound up as the starting RB for the Chiefs, he would be an amazing value at WR. But I can’t see that happening unless Thomas Jones AND LeRon McClain both go down.

I’m more likely to use Moore as a WR3 than McCluster. I already have a good team. So I’m going with Moore here. Who knows, if he blows up again in Week 3 he might have some trade value.

Marion Barber & Bernard Scott

These are two players that I’ve had on a couple of my teams. These are the types of players that I’m cutting at this point in the season. Barber is still injured and Cedric Benson looks as good and as healthy as he’s ever going to. So I’ll move on to a new lottery ticket. I’d rather have Issac Redman, Javon Ringer or Kendall Hunter. Not to mention guys like Delone Carter are still out there on waiver wires. Remember, you’re shopping for:

1. Skills/Talent
2. Opportunity

You’re not going to find a player with both. If there is a player available with an opportunity (ie: a role on offense) grab him first. After that grab the most talented players with the easiest path to opportunity.

Eric Decker, Roy Helu or DeMarco Murray

Now we’re in a PPR league with a RB/WR flex. In this format, I’m picking up Eric Decker first. When Dez Bryant went down last week I had to start Jacoby Jones. I’d certainly rather have Decker than Jones, especially since it looks like Kevin Walter will return in Week 3.

But Murray or Helu? That’s a pretty good one. I’ve got a theory here, but with very little empirical evidence. Do you care? I hope not. This is fantasy football, not CSI.

1. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett HATES Tashard Choice. And Choice hasn’t helped himself. He’s been a decent receiver but he’s not looked good running the football. The Cowboys drafted DeMarco Murray for a reason. Felix Jones hasn’t looked great (albeit against two pretty good run defenses) so far this season. Murray could get a shot at a significant role in the Cowboys offense.
2. And then there’s Evil Running Back Scientist Mike Shanahan. This job looks like it’s all Tim Hightower’s right now, correct? That will change at some point. Hightower has reminded everybody that he can only get what’s blocked for him. And he likes to fumble. Roy Helu looked very good in Week 2, and at the end of the preseason. So what gives? Ryan Torain. Yep. Him. Again. If Hightower were to be injured, I think it would be Torain who got his carries while Helu remains in a complementary role. Could Torain then get hurt? Of course, he probably will. Doesn’t every running back these days?

Quite simply I feel that Helu is two injuries away from real fantasy relevance. Murray is only one injury away and it may have already happened. Stay tuned.

Yeah, I know that nothing is more boring than listening to a guy talk about his fantasy teams. But I think a lot of owners will have similar decisions about similar players this week. You’re trying to figure out if either Eric Decker or Denarius Moore is this year’s Steve Johnson. And they very well could be. Or you could be cutting them as soon as the bye weeks hit. Therein, as they say, lies the rub.

I, like the rest of the Internet, am on Twitter

I Am So Smart! S-M-R-T! (Week 1 Edition)

We learned stuff from Week 1 right? Don’t let any amount of beer, chicken wings, blackjack or Ladies of the Night distract you. That’s why you pay all that money for your big TV and the Sunday Ticket. Sure we learned stuff that we already knew. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are good. Kerry Collins is not. So what did we learn?

• You don’t waste an early draft pick on a kicker or D/ST. I say it every year. In my main league, the Steelers were the 32nd ranked D/ST with -3 points. The first kicker drafted was Nate Kaeding. He tore his ACL on the opening kickoff and is out for the season. But that’s ok. Because THERE’S ALWAYS A KICKER OR D/ST ON THE WAIVER WIRE! Unless you play in a very deep league, in which case, what do you need me for? You must be pretty good at this already.
• Going into this season I tried to figure out what the effects of the lockout would be on the actual NFL games. In the end I figured that there would be a ton of injuries and that offenses would struggle more than defenses after such a long period of inactivity. I got the injuries thing right. But after one week it looks like the offenses are way ahead of the defenses for the most part. Perhaps the new limitations on padded practices have had an effect. Or it could be that defenses generally play more rookies and younger players who really needed the off-season programs to get them ready.
• Maybe this kickoff thing isn’t a big deal after all. After all of the complaining, it seemed every kick returner was returning kicks from five, six maybe even EIGHT yards deep in the end zone. And they had more success than failures. It was actually kind of exciting watching guys try to return kicks from so deep. It looks like while the length of the average kickoff return might decline, the total number of kickoff returns for TD’s should actually climb.
• Punt returners also went wild in Week 1. Some of this has to be attributed to the number of rookies that play on special teams. With so few practices, it’s not surprising that special teams units across the league were struggling.
• You wait to draft a quarterback in fantasy football. Sure the Big 5 (Rodgers, Vick, Brady, Brees & Rivers) were great in Week 1. But so were Cam Netwon, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Rex Grossman. Not to mention Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler and Kevin Kolb. There are ALWAYS quality QB’s available in the middle-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts.
• You always start your studs. There were owners out there who tried to get tricky and bench Ray Rice. Not a good idea. When you draft a player (especially in the first few rounds) you are drafting his production for THE ENTIRE SEASON. The only way to ensure that you get that production is to PLAY HIM EVERY WEEK HE IS HEALTHY.
• It’s a good idea to handcuff RB’s you draft in the early rounds, if possible and/or practical. Ben Tate and Cadillac Williams stand as Exhibit A and Exhibit B at this point. Good luck fighting the rest of the owners in your league on the waiver wire.
• When you’re in a Survivor/Eliminator pool (picking games) don’t get cute in Week 1. Pretty much half of all entries everywhere got eliminated by picking the Chiefs or Browns. Had the Cardinals lost, it would have been closer to 2/3 of entries. Nobody knows very much in Week 1. Go with the best possible team early in the year. Even if that means using the Patriots in Week 1 and the Packers in Week 2.
• The Sunday Ticket on Playstation 3 was an excellent idea, poorly executed. Nothing worked correctly until the late games were nearly over, and even then the quality was not nearly what you would hope for $340. Sony and DirecTV acknowledged the problem but it’s unknown if they will compensate customers. If you were affected, use the Google to find out who to contact.
• Rookie QB’s are wildly unpredictable. Cam Newton starred in Week 1 and could do so again in Week 2. Or he could literally get you no points. Newton’s running ability should make him safer than most rookie QB’s, but don’t go crazy. He should be owned in all leagues, but if you can sell-high, I would do so.
• Ron Jaworski dropped an s-bomb live on Monday Night Football (MNF) and it was great. Can’t we get a football game on HBO or something? Do you have any idea how many f-bombs Gruden would drop if given the chance? Can we at least get a director’s cut with Samuel L. Jackson calling the games. Or Dave Chappelle doing his Samuel Jackson calling the games?
• Donovan McNabb did not look good. In a new team, in a new offensive system, he probably shouldn’t have looked very good. But he’s a veteran QB and he looked every bit as bad as Kerry Collins. Both of these guys are going to present problems to their offensive teammates. Well, expect Adrian Peterson. McNabb might be able to keep Percy Harvin relevant while Collins just locks onto Reggie Wayne every play. You can’t go selling the farm yet, especially with the Colts. But it doesn’t look good. I don’t know how you start Austin Collie or Pierre Garcon, much less Michael Jenkins or Visanthe Shiancoe.

Feel free to follow along on the Twitter. More to come as the preparation for Week 2 continues.

It's Not HBO, It's The Wire (Week 2 Edition)

Welcome to The Wire. It’s Week 2, so it is officially time to start tinkering with your fantasy team. You want to proactive, but you also don’t want to overreact. Now before we start picking up any players, you need to evaluate your roster.

1. Do you have any roster space available? This could be space made available due to injury, or maybe you are carrying a second kicker or D/ST.
2. Examine your league’s free agency rules. Do you use a waiver wire system or FAAB? Do you have an acquisition limit or acquisition fees?
3. Do you like to play the match-ups with your kicker or D/ST? If so, those 2 roster spots will be in constant flux for the rest of the season.
4. Do you have upcoming bye week issues? You generally want to deal with these a week before you actually need to.
5. Do you have any trade options? It’s almost always better to get something of value for a player as opposed to just cutting him. Sometimes it’s worth trading a player just to keep him away from a team with a lot of FAAB or a high waiver priority.

Okay. You’ve checked out your roster. Now if you feel that you don’t have any roster spots, that DOES NOT mean you shouldn’t see who is available on the waiver wire. You may find a player that you like more than a player who is on your current team, even if you don’t want to cut anybody. You want to acquire the most valuable players possible, even if you don’t have an immediate use for them. The players we are looking at should be available in at least 50% of fantasy leagues.

Now, onto The Wire, Week 2 Edition. (Players listed in no particular order)

QB

• CHAD HENNE - Henne looked as good as he ever has in his NFL career on Monday night vs. the Patriots. He’s worth adding in all 2-QB leagues and leagues with 14+ teams. Just don’t throw him into your lineup just yet.
• CAM NEWTON - Newton is worth adding in all leagues. He obviously won’t pass for 400+ yards every week, but his upside is obvious. Again, don’t go throwing him into your lineups, but he is going have value in fantasy this year.
• RYAN FITZPATRICK - Fitzpatrick was extremely efficient and threw for 4 TDs. Fitzpatrick should be owned in leagues with 12+ teams and might be worth starting in Week 2 at home vs the Raiders.
• REX GROSSMAN - Grossman had an excellent game, but he was facing a Giants defense decimated by injury, missing over half of their starters. Grossman is worth adding as a QB2 in leagues with 14+ teams. Grossman should be a decent fantasy starter this week at home against an Arizona defense that got shredded by Cam Newton in Week 1.

RB

• BEN TATE - Even if Arian Foster returns in Week 2, Tate should be owned in all leagues. Tate will be one of the most valuable handcuff RB’s and may even have flex value some weeks with Foster healthy. If he’s out there, scoop him up, even if you have to cut somebody you don’t want to.
• CADILLAC WILLIAMS - Cadillac looked excellent filling in for an injured Steven Jackson, but the Eagles defense will be one of the worst in the league against the run. Jackson owners should add Cadillac, as should owners in leagues with 12+ teams. He should be worth using as a flex option in PPR leagues against the Giants in Week 2.
• DARREN SPROLES - This is an add for owners in PPR leagues that award points for return yardage. If you are in one of these type of leagues, Sproles should be your #1 waiver claim. He doesn’t carry much value in other formats with Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas healthy.
• DEXTER MCCLUSTER - McCluster is especially interesting as he might have WR eligibility in your league. Make sure you know that before picking him up. He looks like he could be the 3rd down back for the Chiefs as well as the handcuff for Jamaal Charles. He’s worth adding in PPR leagues with 12+ teams.
• DEJI KARIM - Karim is now the handcuff for Maurice Jones-Drew. He produced 14 carries and 3 catches in Week 1. It looks like he will get some work every week in addition to being the handcuff to MJD. He’s worth adding in PPR leagues with 14+ teams.

WR

• ERIC DECKER, JACOBY JONES & RANDALL COBB - These players should be added in PPR leagues with 12+ teams that award points for return yardage. They will struggle to maintain fantasy value in other formats. Both players have WR’s above them on the depth chart ahead of them with injury issues right now. That could give Decker, Jones & Cobb a short-term boost in value over the next couple of games.
• BRANDON GIBSON, MIKE SIMS-WALKER & GREG SALAS - Danny Amendola may have dodged a season-ending injury, but he still should be out until at least Week 5. Nobody really knows exactly who is going to take on Amendola’s role of being Sam Bradford’s favorite target. My money is on Brandon Gibson, but Mike Sims-Walker might get the first shot. Salas is worth an add in leagues with 14+ teams where Gibson and Sims-Walker are already owned.
• EARLY DOUCET - He got lucky racking up over 100 yards and a TD on only 3 targets. He’s not worth adding unless you’re in a very deep league and have a roster spot to burn.
• JABAR GAFFNEY - Here we go again. Gaffney will probably not amount to more than a WR4 at best in PPR leagues. But he’s pry worth adding in deeper PPR leagues if you need some depth at WR. He could prove to be a decent bye week fill-in.
• NATE BURLESON - Burleson has vacillated between being underrated and overrated throughout his career. It looks like it’s an underrated year this season. Burleson could be a PPR WR3 in the mold of Davone Bess and should be owned in PPR leagues with 12+ teams. At least as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy.
• DEVERY HENDERSON - We’re always cautious on Henderson because he is a notorious “Boom or Bust” player. And Week 1 was a “Boom” week. But Marques Colston is out for at least a month and Lance Moore could be out for Week 2 and even longer. As long as that is the case, Henderson is worth starting in deeper fantasy leagues, especially those that award points for long-yardage plays or TD’s.
• MOHAMED MASSAQUOI - Yep, him again. It’s just as hard to get excited about Massaquoi as it is to spell his name. But he’s the lead WR for the Browns and should be owned in leagues with 14+ teams. He’s still an excellent deep threat, it’s just a matter of Colt McCoy being able to get the ball to him down-field.

TE

• AARON HERNANDEZ - How is this guy available in so many leagues? Even if you can’t play him (say you own Gates, Witten, etc) you need to pick him up. Especially if you can trade in your league. He’s either Tom Brady’s #2 or #3 target. Either way, you want him on your team and not somebody else’s.
• SCOTT CHANDLER - Yeah, we’re pretty sure that Week 1 was a fluke. But you never know. In leagues with 14+ teams and deep benches, Chandler might be worth a roster stash if you have the space.
• FRED DAVIS - We’ve all known that Davis was a good fantasy TE for a long time. He’s thrived whenever he’s replaced Chris Cooley. The Redskins used a 2-TE set on 80% of their offensive plays in Week 1 and have indicated that they intend to continue to do so. If Davis is on the field that much, he could post low-end TE1 numbers, even with Cooley healthy. That makes him worth adding in any league where you need some depth at TE with decent upside.
• DUSTIN KELLER - Sure he was on a milk carton for the 2nd half of last season. But he’s Mark Sanchez’s safety blanket and he sees a decent amount of red-zone targets. He’s not an every-week starter right now. But he could very well finish as a top-12 TE. He’s worth adding in most leagues in you need depth at TE or even a spot starter.
• JERMAINE GRESHAM - Gresham is another high draft pick that everybody knows has talent. In Week 1 Gresham looked to be no worse than the #2 option in the Bengals passing game. That’s not very sexy, but it should provide him with some nice fantasy numbers, especially in PPR leagues. He’s another guy worth adding if you have any needs at the TE position.

D/ST (One Week Adds For Week 2)

• DALLAS COWBOYS (@ 49ERS)
• NEW YORK GIANTS (vs RAMS)
• WASHINGTON REDSKINS (vs CARDINALS)
• OAKLAND RAIDERS (@ BILLS)
• HOUSTON TEXANS (@ DOLPHINS)

K (One Week Adds For Week 2)

• JON KASAY
• ROBBIE GOULD
• MATT BRYANT
• SHAUN SUISHAM
• JASON HANSON

Now I’m sure that I missed somebody in your league. Sorry, that’s the deal with fantasy football. Almost every league is different. If you know of somebody I missed, call me out on the Twitter. I’m already aware of all of the stuff I’ve already screwed up, but feel free to remind me. Good luck to all.

HBO and The Wire are registered trademarks of the Home Box Office Company, All Rights Reserved.

Thank You Ms. Cleo (2011 NFL Edition)

“Well would you jump off the Brooklyn Bridge if such and such did?” Bet you heard that from a parent or adult at some point when you were a kid. Maybe it was jumping off a cliff, or stepping front of a train. The point was the same. You shouldn’t always follow the crowd. Of course now, that’s precisely what we do. Down to the point of literally “following” people on Twitter.

The stock market follows the hot lead. Fantasy sports players follow the hot pick-up. Kids in school want the stuff they see on TV. So don’t fool yourself, jumping off of the Brooklyn Bridge is exactly what most people do. Why? Because everybody else is doing it.

I figure you just have to be smart enough to evaluate the situation. Maybe everybody is jumping off of the Brooklyn Bridge because you receive a million dollars for doing so. Go ahead and jump, just bring some scuba gear and a parachute.

Why all the nonsense? Because I’m going to write something that’s been written thousands of times in the past few weeks. Not usually a big fan of jumping on the bandwagon. But I figure that so many people are writing this piece because people really enjoy reading it. So without further ado…..

My Bold/Crazy/Wild Predictions/Prognostications/Guesses

AKA

Thank You Ms. Cleo

I’m going to say something about each NFL team. These are things I believe WILL happen this season. Now would I lay even money on these propositions? Probably not. But I’m not laying even money to bet on any team to win the Super Bowl, why should this be any different.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

• Larry Fitzgerald will lead the NFL in receptions
• LaRod Stephens-Howling will total over 1,000 yards from scrimmage

ATLANTA FALCONS

• Michael Turner will fail to record 1,200 yards or 10 TD’s
• Julio Jones will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year

BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Ray Rice will be the #1 fantasy RB in PPR leagues
• Lee Evans will exceed 1,000 yards receiving and 6 TD’s

BUFFALO BILLS

• Steve Johnson exceeds 1,200 yards receiving
• The Bills fail to win 5 games

CAROLINA PANTHERS

• Neither DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart finish as a top-15 RB in fantasy leagues
• Steve Smith 1.0 fails to exceed 1,000 yards or 6 TD’s
• Greg Olsen catches more than 60 passes

CHICAGO BEARS

• No Bears WR records 1,000 yards or 6 TD’s
• Mario Barber scores 8 or more TD’s

CINCINNATI BENGALS

• No Bengals WR exceeds 900 yards receiving
• Cedric Benson fails to rush for 1,000 yards or score 6 TD’s
• Jordan Shipley scores more fantasy points than AJ Green or Jerome Simpson

CLEVELAND BROWNS

• Peyton Hillis shakes off the Madden Curse to record 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 10+ TD’s
• TE Evan Moore posts surprising totals of 600+ yards and 5 TD’s

DALLAS COWBOYS

• Tony Romo finishes as a top-5 fantasy QB
• Miles Austin and Dez Bryant both exceed 1,000 yards receiving and 6 TD’s
• Felix Jones plays at least 14 games and posts solid RB2 numbers, especially in PPR leagues
• Jason Witten finishes outside of the top-7 at TE in standard fantasy leagues

DENVER BRONCOS

• Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee combine for over 2,000 yards rushing and 15+ TD’s
• Kyle Orton finishes the season as the starting QB, starting all 16 games

DETROIT LIONS

• Matthew Stafford starts at least 13 games
• Calvin Johnson finishes the year as the #1 WR in standard fantasy leagues
• Jahvid Best does NOT lead the Lions in rushing yards

GREEN BAY PACKERS

• Greg Jennings struggles until Jermichael Finley gets hurt, then puts up WR1 numbers the rest of the season.
• Jermichael Finley fails to play in at least 10 games
• Jordy Nelson has more yards, receptions and TD’s than James Jones or Donald Driver

HOUSTON TEXANS

• Arian Foster plays in at least 14 games and finishes as a top-10 RB in fantasy leagues.
• Andre Johnson misses at least 2 games and still finishes as a top-5 fantasy WR
• Derrick Ward records more carries than Ben Tate

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• Peyton Manning starts 16 games. He struggles for the first month, before putting up MVP-caliber numbers for the last 12 games.
• Pierre Garcon finishes with more fantasy points than Austin Collie
• Joseph Addai fails to start 12 games

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• Maurice Jones-Drew plays in at least 14 games and finishes as a top-12 fantasy RB
• Mike Thomas exceeds 1,000 yards receiving
• Mercedes Lewis fails to score at least 6 TD’s

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• Dwayne Bowe fails to finish as a top-12 fantasy WR
• Jamaal Charles does not finish as a top-7 RB in standard fantasy leagues
• Matt Cassel doesn’t finish as a top-20 fantasy QB

MIAMI DOLPHINS

• Daniel Thomas scores more fantasy points than Reggie Bush, despite Reggie Bush starting more games
• Brandon Marshall finishes as a top-5 WR in PPR leagues
• Davone Bess finishes as a top-30 WR in PPR leagues

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• Adrian Peterson continues to dominate and finishes as a top-3 fantasy RB
• Percy Harvin finishes as a top-15 WR in PPR leagues
• Donovan McNabb starts at least 14 games

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• No Patriots RB finishes as a top-20 fantasy option
• Both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez finish as top-12 fantasy TE’s
• Chad Ochocinco fails to record 1,000 yards or 6 TD’s

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• Pierre Thomas scores more fantasy points than Mark Ingram in PPR leagues
• Robert Meachem leads the Saints WR’s in fantasy points
• Jimmy Graham finishes as a top-7 option at TE
• The Saints D/ST is a top-10 fantasy unit

NEW YORK GIANTS

• Brandon Jacobs scores more fantasy points than Ahmad Bradshaw in standard fantasy leagues
• Mario Manningham finishes as a top-20 WR in PPR leagues
• Hakeem Nicks is a top-5 WR in fantasy leagues

NEW YORK JETS

• Shonn Greene fails to score 10 TD’s
• Santonio Holmes is a top-12 WR in standard leagues
• Plaxico Burress fails to finish in the top-30 at WR in fantasy leagues

OAKLAND RAIDERS

• Darren McFadden finishes as a top-7 RB in fantasy leagues
• Michael Bush scores at least 10 TD’s
• Jacoby Ford exceeds 1,000 yards receiving

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• Mike Vick fails to finish as a top-5 fantasy QB
• LeSean McCoy finishes as a top-5 RB in PPR leagues
• Jeremy Maclin scores more fantasy points than DeSean Jackson
• Jason Avant scores more fantasy points than Steve Smith 2.0

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• Issac Redman starts at least 4 games at RB
• Mike Wallace leads the NFL in receiving yards
• Emmanuel Sanders scores more fantasy points than Antonio Brown or Hines Ward

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• Philip Rivers finishes as the #1 fantasy QB
• Mike Tolbert has more fantasy points than Ryan Matthews
• Vincent Jackson is a top-7 fantasy WR

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Sidney Rices fails to finish as a top-30 fantasy WR
• Marshawn Lynch fails to exceed 1,200 total yards or 6 total TD’s

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• No 49ers WR finishes in the top-30 in fantasy leagues
• Vernon Davis finishes as a top-3 fantasy TE
• Kendall Hunter starts at least 3 games at RB

ST. LOUIS RAMS

• Sam Bradford finishes as a top-12 fantasy QB
• Danny Amendola finishes as a top-20 WR in PPR leagues
• Steven Jackson finishes as a top-10 fantasy RB

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• LeGarrette Blount finishes as a top-12 fantasy RB in standard leagues
• Kellen Winslow is a top-5 fantasy TE
• Dezmon Briscoe scores more fantasy points than Arrelious Benn

TENNESSEE TITANS

• Chris Johnson fails to start at least two games due to injury
• TE Jared Cook leads the Titans in receptions
• Kenny Britt fails to start 12 games at WR
• Matt Hasselbeck starts at least 13 games at QB

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• At least 3 RB’s start games for the Redskins
• Tim Hightower finishes with the most fantasy points among Redskins RB’s but does not finish the season as the starting RB
• Santana Moss does not finish as a top-20 WR in standard leagues

See? Not particularly bold overall, but these thoughts have certainly had a part in shaping my fantasy teams. It’s probably not a bad idea for you to make a list like that of your own. It could help. Besides, everybody else is doing it.

Join the crowd, follow along on the Twitter.

Running Back Handcuffs

UPDATED: September 4, 2011
NOTE: Starting RB is Goal line RB if none is listed

ARIZONA CARDINALS
STARTING RB - Beanie Wells
3RD DOWN RB - LaRod Stephens-Howling
HANDCUFF - LaRod Stephens-Howling

ATLANTA FALCONS
STARTING RB - Michael Turner
3RD DOWN RB - Jason Snelling
HANDCUFF 1 - Jason Snelling
HANDCUFF 2 - Jacquizz Rodgers

BALTIMORE RAVENS
STARTING RB - Ray Rice
3RD DOWN RB - Ray Rice
HANDCUFF - Ricky Williams

BUFFALO BILLS
STARTING RB - Fred Jackson
3RD DOWN RB - CJ Spiller
HANDCUFF - CJ Spiller

CAROLINA PANTHERS
STARTING RB - DeAngelo Williams
3RD DOWN RB - DeAngelo Williams
HANDCUFF 1 - Jonathan Stewart
HANDCUFF 2 - Mike Goodson
GOAL LINE RB - Jonathan Stewart

CHICAGO BEARS
STARTING RB - Matt Forte
3RD DOWN RB - Matt Forte
HANDCUFF - Marion Barber
GOAL LINE RB - Mario Barber

CINCINNATI BENGALS
STARTING RB - Cedric Benson
3RD DOWN RB - Bernard Scott
HANDCUFF - Bernard Scott

CLEVELAND BROWNS
STARTING RB - Peyton Hills
3RD DOWN RB - Peyton Hillis
HANDCUFF - Montario Hardesty

DALLAS COWBOYS
STARTING RB - Felix Jones
3RD DOWN RB - Felix Jones
HANDCUFF 1 - DeMarco Murray
HANDCUFF 2 - Tashard Choice

DENVER BRONCOS
STARTING RB -Knowshon Moreno
3RD DOWN RB - Knowshon Moreno
HANDCUFF - Willis McGahee
GOAL LINE RB - Willis McGahee

DETROIT LIONS
STARTING RB - Jahvid Best
3RD DOWN RB - Jahvid Best
HANDCUFF 1 - Jerome Harrison
HANDCUFF 2 - Maurice Morris
HANDCUFF 3 - Aaron Brown

GREEN BAY PACKERS
STARTING RB - Ryan Grant
3RD DOWN RB - James Starks
HANDCUFF - James Starks

HOUSTON TEXANS
STARTING RB - Arian Foster
3RD DOWN RB - Arian Foster
HANDCUFF 1 - Derrick Ward
HANDCUFF 2 - Ben Tate
HANDCUFF 3 - Steve Slaton

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
STARTING RB - Joseph Addai
3RD DOWN RB - Joseph Addai
HANDCUFF 1 - Delone Carter
HANDCUFF 2 - Donald Brown

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
STARTING RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
3RD DOWN RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
HANDCUFF 1 - Deji Karim
HANDCUFF 2 - DuJuan Harris

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
STARTING RB - Jamaal Charles
3RD DOWN RB - Dexter McCluster
HANDCUFF - Thomas Jones
GOAL LINE RB - Thomas Jones

MIAMI DOLPHINS
STARTING RB - Reggie Bush
3RD DOWN RB - Reggie Bush
HANDCUFF 1 - Daniel Thomas
HANDCUFF 2 - Lex Hilliard
GOAL LINE RB - Daniel Thomas

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
STARTING RB - Adrian Peterson
3RD DOWN RB - Adrian Peterson
HANDCUFF - Toby Gerhart

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
STARTING RB - BenJarvus Green-Ellis
3RD DOWN RB - Danny Woodhead
HANDCUFF 1 - Stevan Ridley
HANDCUFF 2 - Shane Vereen

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
STARTING RB - Mark Ingram
3RD DOWN RB - Darren Sproles
HANDCUFF - Pierre Thomas

NEW YORK GIANTS
STARTING RB - Ahmad Bradshaw
3RD DOWN RB - Ahmad Bradshaw
HANDCUFF - Brandon Jacobs
GOAL LINE RB - Brandon Jacobs

NEW YORK JETS
STARTING RB - Shonn Greene
3RD DOWN RB - LaDainian Tomlinson
HANDCUFF 1 - LaDainian Tomlinson
HANDCUFF 2 - Joe McKnight

OAKLAND RAIDERS
STARTING RB - Darren McFadden
3RD DOWN RB - Darren McFadden
HANDCUFF - Michael Bush
GOAL LINE BACK - Michael Bush

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
STARTING RB - LeSean McCoy
3RD DOWN RB - LeSean McCoy
HANDCUFF - Ronnie Brown

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
STARTING RB - Rashard Mendenhall
3RD DOWN RB - Mwelde Moore
HANDCUFF - Isaac Redman

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
STARTING RB - Ryan Matthews
3RD DOWN RB - Mike Tolbert
HANDCUFF - Mike Tolbert
GOAL LINE RB - Mike Tolbert

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
STARTING RB - Marshawn Lynch
3RD DOWN RB - Justin Forsett
HANDCUFF 1 - Justin Forsett
HANDCUFF 2 - Leon Washington

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
STARTING RB - Frank Gore
3RD DOWN RB - Frank Gore
HANDCUFF 1 - Kendall Hunter
HANDCUFF 2 - Anthony Dixon

ST. LOUIS RAMS
STARTING RB - Steven Jackson
3RD DOWN RB - Jerious Norwood
HANDCUFF - Cadillac Williams

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
STARTING RB - LeGarrette Blount
3RD DOWN RB - Earnest Graham
HANDCUFF 1 - Kregg Lumpkin
HANDCUFF 2 - Allen Bradford

TENNESSEE TITANS
STARTING RB - Chris Johnson
3RD DOWN RB - Chris Johnson
HANDCUFF 1 - Javon Ringer
HANDCUFF 2 - Jamie Harper

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
STARTING RB - Tim Hightower
3RD DOWN RB - Tim Hightower
HANDCUFF 1 - Roy Helu
HANDCUFF 2 - Ryan Torain

As always you can follow us on the Twitter. You know, to make sure that you don’t take the left turn at Albuquerque.

Last Minute Fantasy Football Draft Wisdom

So here we are. You did it. You survived the lockout, the hold-outs and the injury scares. This is the Main Event. The Big Weekend. It’s time for your Draft, with a Capital D, no less. By now you should have done some prep work and have a decent plan for your draft. If for some reason this is the first thing you are reading about fantasy football, don’t panic. Keep on reading, and get yourself a solid set of rankings before the draft. (For free rankings I tend to use FFToolbox, Yahoo, or CBS)

Let’s start with the Online Draft vs the Live Draft

ADVICE THAT APPLIES TO EITHER DRAFT FORMAT

• Go easy on the booze (if applicable). Being the first owner to get to beer number seven might seem pretty cool, it will have adverse affects on your fantasy team. Trust me. Instead, just don’t start drinking until a half hour before the draft. And try to get all the owners to go do shots (tequila) if possible.
• I always like to have a list of my own rankings in front of me, whether the draft is live or online. That way I can cross each player drafted off myself. It helps me to always know who is available. Sometimes if you’re just looking at a computer screen or draft board, you can miss stuff.
• Always have a different set of rankings then the rest of your draft. Players draft positions are ALWAYS influenced by the default rankings, whether online or handed out at your draft. There was a phenomenal piece done by Adam Levitan over at Rotoworld about this. Well worth your time.
• Always be ready with the next three players you want to draft. Because the owners drafting in front of you are going to draft the players you want. Constantly. You do not want to have it be your pick and you have no idea who to select with only 60 seconds to decide. Again, it helps to have your own rankings on paper in front of you for this.
• Do not be shook or influenced by a single word anybody else says at the draft. The constant chatter about who likes who, injuries recent role changes? It’s all crap. Well, most of it is. Smart owners aren’t giving anything away before the draft. It’s a fine line to walk, if you just talk up players you don’t want, smart owners will figure out that you’re avoiding those players. Talk about the guys you like and the dumb owners will know who you’re targeting. I personally just spend the entire pre-draft emphasizing the importance of kickers. Sometimes I throw in “Jeff George just signed with X” or something of that nature. Something that’s pretty obviously phoney and possibly even funny. It’s called deflecting, ask any married guy you know about it.
• If you don’t know the rules and scoring settings of your league by heart, print them out or pull that screen up. You need to know about EVERY rule or scoring category there is. Otherwise you’re going to miss something.

ONLINE DRAFTS

• Arrive at the draft room early. Add all of your target players to your queue so you will always be ready to draft. Use your other rankings list to spot players that are lower or higher in the online default rankings.
• Keep the chat room reasonable. Don’t be that Internet Tough Guy who goes off on a guy about his mother because he just drafted Felix Jones. Some trash talk is great, but don’t get personal.
• This might sound stupid, but if you think there’s any chance you might lose power or Internet access, try to have an alternative ready. Most smartphones can handle draft software these days.
• Focus on your draft. Don’t be playing poker, checking email or watching TV while you are drafting. If you need something on in the background, don’t make it anything that will distract you.
• If you’re going to require food and/or beverage, have it ready before the draft starts. Trying to make a mid-draft run to Wawa (7-11, what have you) is draft suicide.

LIVE DRAFTS

• Show up on time, sober, with your draft materials and league entry fee. Be ready to draft.
• Don’t show up empty-handed. If there is an arrangement where everybody pitches in a couple bucks for food and drink, fine. But if it’s a free for all, at least show up with a case of beer, some 2-liters of soda, some chips, something. (Unless you’re drafting at bar. In that case you’re good) Somebody is having ya’ll (y’all ?) in his crib and will have to clean up after you slobs. At least be decent and bring a little something to the table.
• Don’t leave your draft material laying around before the draft. You work hard or paid good money for this stuff. Don’t let some unprepared owner piggyback off of what you’ve done.
• Do a little fishing. There are probably some other owners with teams in multiple leagues. Ask them if they’ve draft already and how they liked their draft. Usually NOBODY wants to hear about YOUR fantasy team, so when somebody asks, get ready for an earful. Finding out who other owners have already drafted and what they thought of those drafts should give you an idea of what they might do in your draft.

So there. All the philosophical nonsense is out of the way. Now for some honest-to-God drafting strategy.

• Don’t draft a kicker until the last round. And I will guarantee you that one of these guys is available: (NOTE: Saints K Garrett Hartley out 6-10 weeks)

1. Matt Bryant
2. Alex Henery
3. Rob Bironas
4. Jon Kasay (Will be the Saints kicker for at least 6 weeks)
5. Jason Hanson

• There’s not a fantasy defense worth reaching for. The Steelers, Jets, Packers, Ravens, Patriots, Giants, Eagles and Bears ALL have weaknesses. And guess what, there are still 24 other defenses to choose from. I personally like to play the match-ups with my defense and most weeks I wind up selecting from the waiver wire. This works far better than you think. Here are some other defenses worth drafting in the 2nd to last round of your draft:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. San Diego Chargers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Arizona Cardinals (Open season vs CAR, @WAS, @SEA)
6. Detroit Lions

• This is the year to wait on QB. There are so many QB’s with high-upside that will be available later in your draft. If one of the Big 5 (Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Brees, Vick) drops to Round 5, great. But don’t go reaching for a QB in the first four rounds. (Only exception is 14+ team leagues when there is an early QB run). Just look at the QB’s who will be available in Round 5 or later.

1. Peyton Manning
2. Tony Romo
3. Ben Roethlisberger
4. Matt Schaub
5. Matt Ryan
6. Matthew Stafford
7. Sam Bradford
8. Josh Freeman
9. Joe Flacco
10. Eli Manning
11. Jay Cutler

• That’s 11 LEGITIMATE starting QB’s. Granted, some are better than others. But in 10 and 12-team leagues, you’re going to be able to get 2 of these QB’s after you’ve filled in the rest of your starting lineup. Not to mention there are still MORE QB’s with some upside available:

1. Matt Cassel
2. Kevin Kolb
3. Kyle Orton
4. Donovan McNabb
5. Ryan Fitzpatrick
6. Jason Campbell
7. Colt McCoy
8. Cam Newton
9. Mark Sanchez

• Rodgers is going to be great. Vick could be transcendent. But you can ABSOLUTELY find excellent QB options later in drafts. There is NOT this kind of depth at RB or WR.

• Everything I just said about QB’s? It applies just the same to TE’s. (In FFPC leagues where TE’s get 1.5 points-per-reception, this is different) There are the Big 5 TE’s:

1. Antonio Gates
2. Jermichael Finley
3. Vernon Davis
4. Dallas Clark
5. Jason Witten

• It’s not like any of these guys are completely rock-solid. They all have some question marks. So it’s probably not worth reaching for them when you can draft:

1. Jimmy Graham
2. Kellen Winslow
3. Aaron Hernandez
4. Rob Gronkowski
5. Greg Olsen
6. Jared Cook
7. Mercedes Lewis
8. Zach Miller
9. Chris Cooley
10. Dustin Keller
11. Tony Gonzalez
12. Brandon Pettigrew

• Here we have 12 guys that should all be pretty decent starting options. Again, they won’t be Antonio Gates. But there sure are a lot of options. Enough to draft two if you have the space. Or enough that you should be able to add a pretty decent TE off of the waiver wire later on if necessary.

• If you haven’t gotten the idea yet, it’s all about the RB’s and WR’s early in your draft. I’m pry taking 5 RB/WR in my first five picks.

• Get your starting WR’s early. Whether you have to start two or three, you need to get them early on. After about WR30, the position just falls off of a cliff. Unless an excellent RB is available in Round 2, I’m pry taking a WR there. I would be aiming to get 2 WR between Rounds 2-4.

• Get yourself a RB in the first round. There are some exceptions where picking at the end of Round 1 in a PPR draft, you might take a WR in Round 1. But if you do that, be ready to take a RB in Round 2. You pretty much HAVE to walk out of the first two rounds with a RB. You might have to deal the warts of a Frank Gore, Steven Jackson or Matt Forte. But you need a RB that’s going to get the majority of the carries. You HAVE to have at least one.

• After you get your starting lineup filled, swing for the fences. Once the RB’s with any weekly value are gone, start picking up the high-upside handcuffs. These guys are just lottery tickets, but you can’t win the lottery without one. If you have to cut one of these guys when the bye weeks start, so be it. These players include:

1. Kendall Hunter
2. Delone Carter
3. Ronnie Brown
4. Javon Ringer
5. Rashad Jennings (Check injury status)
6. Derrick Ward/Ben Tate (Pick your poison, my money is on a split)
7. Jason Snelling
8. Toby Gerhart
9. Jerome Harrison
10. Marion Barber
11. Issac Redman
12. Montario Hardesty

• Again, there’s not really any weekly options here. But SOMEBODY is going to get hurt. And if one of these guys gets a shot at the starting job, he’s probably a fantasy starter. You are going to want to draft as many RB’s as possible.
• Once you have your starting WR’s draft one or two backups. And that’s it. There are always WR’s that pop up on the waiver wire. I’d grab one “safe” type and one “lottery ticket” type.

That’s it. Good luck to everybody who has their drafts this weekend. I’m out there on the Twitter if you have any draft questions or find out the meaning of the universe. (HINT: It’s 42)

Fantasy Football Draft Prep. Look Ma, No Names!

Look, if you want rankings and such, there are a million websites all claiming that they know who is going to be better than who. I’ve got some guesses, but anybody who can tell for a fact that he knows who scores the most points out of Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice is just lying. Nobody knows. Should you draft Arian Foster before say Shonn Greene? Absolutely. Put that’s not what we’re here for. This is draft strategy that has nothing to do with targeting specific players.

And before you complain about how long it takes to read this, think about how long it took to write it.

LEAGUE SIZE

League size is one of the first things to consider when planning for your draft. Most leagues I’ve encountered have 8, 10, 12, 14 or 20 teams. Not that there aren’t 18 team leagues or 32 team leagues.

8-TEAM LEAGUES

Seriously, grow some balls and join a real league.

If you do insist on playing in an 8-team league, your draft strategy is simple. Draft as many stud RB’s and WR’s as possible. There will be QB’s and TE’s available all year in an 8-team league. So don’t reach. Why draft Drew Brees if you can pick up Matthew Stafford or Eli Manning?

8-team leagues are strictly “superstar” affairs. There’s probably no need to draft anybody considered a “sleeper”. These leagues are nice for the very casual fantasy player because no injury is really that devastating. There are ALWAYS quality options on the waiver wire in a 8-team league.

10-TEAM LEAGUES

10-team leagues are among the most common league sizes (along with 12-team leagues). While the addition of two teams makes a 10-team league much harder than an 8-teamer, there are still always quality options available on the waiver wire.

You’re focusing solely on high-upside players in a 10-team league. Solid players with no real upside (Derrick Mason was always a poster boy for this) aren’t going to help you in a 10-team league. You want to swing for the fences as much as possible.

Don’t hesitate to make a move. One of the worst mistakes fantasy owners tend to make is over-valuing their own players. There are tons of players on the wire in a 10-team league. Don’t hold onto an Earl Bennett-type while everybody else is picking the waiver wire clean. Odds are nobody else is even going to pickup the guy you drop.

In 10-team leagues, you can usually wait on QB and TE due to the depth of those positions this season. However, should you choose to draft a QB and/or TE early, I would not bother carrying a backup. There will always be decent waiver options at QB and TE in a 10-teamer. Focus on stockpiling RB’s and WR’s with high upside on your bench, not a backup that’s only for bye week or injury purposes.

12-TEAM LEAGUES

Again, adding two teams makes the league appreciably more difficult. The waiver wire options are becoming far less plentiful as we add teams.

Now we’re getting into the level where we will start aiming for some real sleepers and whatnot. Having 12-teams will ensure that all of the top options are drafted at QB and TE. This means that QB’s and TE’s will generally be drafted earlier in 12-team leagues. Plan accordingly.

If you are in a league that allows trading, be ready to wheel in deal. Once you get to 12-teams, you will have owners with legitimate holes on their roster. This creates an environment far more conducive to trading. It’s almost impossible to trade a QB in a 10-team league, because everybody has a really good one. In a 12-team league you finally get to the point where a couple teams have starters with some questions and low-quality backups.

ADP (Average Draft Position) becomes more important. In smaller leagues you can almost feel free to take the players you want on your schedule. Now that we get into a deeper league, you need to plan in greater detail. You should get a feel of when the elite QB’s and TE’s are taken. Never get caught in the end of a run. Just because the last four guys all picked QB’s doesn’t mean that you have to. If you know you can wait and say get Matthew Stafford in Round 8, and you’re cool with that, just take another RB or WR.

In a 12-team league you can justify carrying a backup QB and/or TE if you don’t have an elite option at the position. Or if your elite starter carries above average injury risk.

14-TEAM LEAGUES

Now we’re talkin. You need to be on top of your game in a 14-team league. The waiver wire options will be scarce and owners will pounce early on anybody with some upside.

Now there is a real premium on the elite QB’s and TE’s. Not there’s not a premium on RB’s or WR’s. But in a 14-team league you will often see the elite 6 (7 or 8) QB’s be drafted in the first two rounds. So if you want an elite QB, be ready to take one early.

In a 14-team league, you can start to make some safe, boring-type picks later in your draft. Am I excited at all about Hines Ward, Derrick Mason or Ricky Williams? Not really. Should they be drafted in a 14-team league. Yep. Don’t reach for these players but they can be useful strictly as bye week fill-ins and injury replacements.

Focus on the players with the easiest path to playing time. Once you get into deeper leagues, you’re just speculating on injuries and such. Handcuff running backs behind aging, injury-prone or declining starters can turn into fantasy gold. Very rarely is going with a guy who is the 3rd or 4th RB on his own team worthwhile in fantasy.

Trading becomes even more important in a 14-team league. This is probably the smallest league size where I would consider taking the “2 players” in a 2-for-1 trade, especially early in the season. If you screw up your draft or get hammered by injuries, you need to be proactive. Don’t go shopping around all of your studs to build depth, but if you have a roster hole, do what you have to do to plug it.

20-TEAM LEAGUES

Congratulations, ya’ll (or is it y’all, I never know) are real Men. Ladies, if you play in a 20-team league, challenge your pansy boyfriend to a pissing contest.

Having a stud QB almost becomes a must in this format. Somebody is going to be stuck starting the 20th best QB. It’s a real benefit to have one of the top QB’s when you’re in a league this deep.

Drafting a stud TE is a bit less important, especially if it’s not Antonio Gates. Taking a QB and a TE in the first five (or four) rounds of a 20-team league will leave you with a big hole at RB and/or WR. Go for the QB and wait on bit on the TE. Or do the opposite. Just don’t take both early.

I’d be looking to take a QB in Round 1 or 2, then a TE in Round 8 or 9. Every other pick of mine in the first 10 rounds will be a RB or WR. I’m swinging for upside early while being content to take some “safer” less sexy options later in the draft.

You want to take shots on EVERYBODY in a league this deeper. Your barber just mentioned that the previous customer said something about Clinton Portis being signed? Pick him up. 95% of the time, you’ll just wind up cutting the guy in a week or two when nothing happens. But that other 5% of the time? That’s what wins you leagues. The bottom 3 spots or so of your roster should constantly be in flux.

Information is the key. This is the type of league that rewards the guy who gets a million text message alerts per day on NFL players. Or the guy who has a Twitter list of all the NFL beat writers he can find. You have to stay ahead of the pack in these leagues. You can’t think “oh I’ll just check the league later, I’m sure he’ll still be available.” Because guess what? Chicken butt. Actually, the guy will already be gone. That’s what smart phones are for. If you’re in a 20-team league, and iPhone or Droid should be mandatory. (If you have an iPad, you’re just too cool for me)

Enough about league size, what else ya got? Auction drafts? Auction drafts.

AUCTION DRAFTS

Rule Number 1 - SPEND ALL OF YOUR MONEY! There’s no award for paying $3 for $1 players at the end of the draft. Spend the money on the guys you want, no matter how early they are nominated for bidding.

We’re not really going to do a whole Rule Number thing, you just need to know what the one and only Rule Number 1 is.

I always have a nominating strategy. Early on, I’m throwing out players that I don’t want on my time. For instance, I would nominate Mike Vick right away. Because I certainly won’t pay what he will cost, so he won’t be on my team. I’ll throw out the Steelers D early a lot too. Then once I have met my needs at a position, that’s the position I will nominate. Say I end up with Tom Brady early. I will keep nominating QB’s until everybody has a starter or there are only cheap QB’s left. I want people spending their money on QB’s because I already have one. This way other teams are spending their money on players I have no interest in. That means more players I want are available while other teams have less money to spend. Works for me.

Once you get down to the end of the draft, you can start reaching for your “sleepers” and whatnot. Ideally at this point you have enough money to either bid $2 or $3 if necessary or all teams just have $1 bids left. Be careful about nominating players you hope to get for $1 if there are any teams out there with more than $1 bids left.

I price enforce a bit in my auctions. Price enforcing means that I feel somebody is getting too good of a deal on a player. For instance say Cedric Benson is a $12 player and the current bid is at $6 and it’s “Going Once, Going Twice…”. So I bid $7. And I might go to $9 if the other guy goes to $8. And I don’t even like Benson. But I would take him at $7 and could live with him at $9. Don’t ever price enforce to the point where you’ll be upset if you actually win the player. But don’t let guys get a huge steal if possible. Sometimes other owners are wondering why nobody else is bidding and they just don’t want to be the one to step up.

Pay close attention during your auction draft. Is there one owner who is always price enforcing? Who was the owner who battled you for Felix Jones? Write that down, he would probably be interested in trading for Jones later. Is there a guy who is just waiting and waiting with all of his money? Knowing the other owners is sometimes just as important as knowing the actual players.

FREE AGENT ACQUISITION BUDGETS (FAAB) aka BLIND BIDDING

While we’re on the auction tip, let’s cover the FAAB process. FAAB is just a weekly blind auction for all available players. Each team begins the season with the same free agent budget, usually either $100 or $1000. Each week you target any free agent you might want and you place a bid on him. Say you have $100. We’ll use an example from Week 1 last season. Ryan Grant is lost for the season and his primary backup, Brandon Jackson is a free agent. You can bid as much of that $100 as you want. You can bid it all, but then you can only make $0 bids (if allowed) the rest of the season. Or you could be say $72 and hope that’s enough. But if somebody bids more, you don’t get him. Simple enough?

I’m not a big believer in saving your FAAB budget. You can’t guarantee that a big injury or benching will happen late in the season. So when it happens, go for it. Did Brandon Jackson work out for you last year if you blew your whole FAAB budget on him? Pry not. But who about if you blew your whole FAAB budget on Mike Vick? Pry worked out pretty well didn’t it. Again, there’s no award for having remaining FAAB money at the end of the year.

Make sure you set your claim lists well. Double check the players you intend to drop. Make sure you’ve entered your bid prices correctly. Make conditional bids in case your initial bids aren’t enough to win. Most leagues only run FAAB once a week, so if you’re trying to acquire a player you need to start (usually kicker or a defense) make sure you place enough claims to ensure you have a starter for the upcoming week.

In some keeper leagues with FAAB, the FAAB price you pay for a player becomes his keeper value. If this is the case in your league, make sure you factor that in when considering how much to bid.

KEEPER LEAGUES

First some clarity. Keeper leagues are leagues where 1 or more players can be retained on a team from season-to-season. A dynasty league is a league where every player on every team is retained from season-to-season.

Keeper leagues are difficult to discuss, because each league is completely unique. So these are just some general rules that may or may not apply easily to your league. Most of the time in a keeper league, as a league member you know your league far better than any “expert” so trust your own judgement.

KNOW YOUR RULES. There is nothing more important in a keeper league. How many players can you keep and how long can you keep them for? What is the cost of keeping a player? Does that cost increase each season? If so, by how much? All of these things are things YOU MUST KNOW. No exceptions.

I play to win every season. I won’t consider a trade to solely improve myself for the future until I am mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. It’s a lot less fun than you think to have a whole team of rookies and young players. You might be a great team three years from now, but is losing for three years really worth it? This is a personal preference thing. If it’s a complete toss-up, then I’ll pry take the young guy. Say Josh Freeman instead of Eli Manning. But I’m not taking Sam Bradford over Peyton Manning, keeper or not.

Pay attention to shelf-life. QB’s can be productive for a decade, maybe longer. Most RB’s have four, maybe five good seasons in them. RB’s are more valuable from year-to-year but their value and performance can vary wildly. QB’s and WR’s tend to have more stable value. Point being? Don’t be afraid to trade a quality keeper RB while he’s still quality. If you wait until he hits the cliff, you’re not going to get anything for him. Does that mean trade AP for Mark Ingram right now? Nope. But next year? Maybe rabbit, maybe.

There is no off-season. Part of the fun of keeper and dynasty leagues is that they are open for business year round. You can make trades in April if you’d like. So pay attention and keep your head on a swivel. Especially around free agency and the NFL Draft in April.

IDP (Individual Defensive Player) LEAGUES

Much like keeper leagues, it’s very difficult to discuss IDP leagues, because they are all very different. Most IDP leagues feature defensive players in addition to the usual offensive players. There are however, leagues made up solely of defensive players. The IDP positions are as follows:

• DL (Defensive Lineman, can be a DE or DT)
• DT (Defensive Tackle)
• DE (Defensive End)
• LB (Linebacker, can be OLB or MLB)
• DB (Defensive Back, can be CB or S)
• CB (Cornerback)
• S (Safety)

You need to pay attention to your league’s rosters and scoring settings. How many points do you get for sacks, tackles and INT’s? How many defensive players do you start? How did the top-scoring IDP players in your league last year compare to the offensive players? You need to know ALL OF THESE THINGS.

Most leagues utilize a handful of IDP players mixed in with their typical offensive players. In these leagues, there’s almost no need to draft IDP’s before the very end of your draft. For instance, if your league only starts 1 DL, 2 LB and 1 DB, there’s no need to reach in the draft for an IDP. Every week there will be quality options available on the wire. Really good options. There’s no need to draft Patrick Willis in Round 7 when you can take Curtis Lofton in Round 15.

If I ever reach for an IDP, it’s for an elite DL. This is because there are by far the fewest quality fantasy options along the defensive line. But there are a few elite DL that combine high tackle totals with nice sack numbers. These are your Trent Cole’s and Jared Allen’s of the world. I’m usually trying to acquire a solid DL before I chase any LB.

Now in deeper IDP formats (start say 9 IDP’s) everything changes. Now you should still draft your offensive players and a couple of bench options first. Then I’d go after a couple of solid LB’s then a DL or two before turning my attention to the DB’s.

With the increase of passing on offense, more and more defensive backs are seeing extended playing time. This means that you have far more DB options on the waiver wire than at any other position. Rookie DB’s can be especially useful.

Why are rookie DB’s useful in fantasy? For the exact reason that Darrell Revis is not. QB’s don’t want to throw at Revis. They absolutely want to throw at the rookie. That means more chances for INT’s and more importantly, increased tackle totals. In most IDP leagues, it’s better to chase tackles than big-plays.

Once again, following NFL news is critical. Say Jamar Chaney got moved from the SLB to MLB for the Eagles. Chaney’s fantasy value would immediately jump as a 3-down MLB. On defense, a lot of these type of things fly under the radar. So paying close attention can pay off here, even more so than with offensive players.

TD-ONLY LEAGUES

I can’t believe these still exist, but I guess they do. Draft strategy here becomes pretty simple.

First, draft the studs. Nothing really changes here. Maybe a Matt Forte-type falls a bit, while a Michael Turner rises. But elite players are still elite.

Pretty soon, you should have a good QB, a good TE and all of the “stud” RB’s and WR’s are drafted. Now started targeting the “TD-only” guys. These are goal line backs (Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee, Brandon Jacobs), TD vultures (Ricky Williams, Marion Barber, LaDainian Tomlinson) and red zone receiving threats (Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Nate Burleson).

Those lists should make it pretty clear that you want to get at least two “stud” WR’s early. Guys that can score double-digit TD’s. Because you can find some backup RB’s who will score eight or ten TD’s. You’re not going to find any WR’s later in drafts who will score double digit TD’s.

PPR (Point-Per-Reception) LEAGUES

I barely touch on PPR leagues because they are now just as common as standard leagues. All of the high-stakes, championship leagues are PPR leagues. But anyway.

Wes Welker has always been the “poster boy” for PPR leagues. He catches a ton of passes, but doesn’t necessarily pile up the yards and TD’s. RB’s who catch the ball also gain quite a bit of value. If LeSean McCoy catches 60 passes and Michael Turner catches 20 passes, that’s a 40 point difference. For the math disinclined, that’s almost 7 TD’s worth of fantasy points. Again, this isn’t to say that Michael Turner is worthless and LeSean McCoy is God. But in this format, Turner loses some value while McCoy gains some.

I’m always targeting RB’s who can catch the ball and “stud” WR’s early in PPR leagues. I want RB’s who run the ball a lot while also having the potential to catch 40+ passes. I want WR’s who have a shot at 90 catches and/or 10+ TD’s. Once those guys are off the board, I’ll worry about my QB. I might mix a “stud” TE in early if one fell to me in the Round 5 area, but other than that I would probably wait on TE. A lack of TD’s or yards can be overcome with a high volume of catches, so there’s always some decent TE’s available late in PPR leagues.

These are the leagues where you’ll here all about Danny Amendola and Davone Bess. And for good reason. You want guys who are target frequently and accumulate a lot of catches. DeSean Jackson and even Mike Wallace are going to struggle in this format. They are players who get quite a few less catches, but do quite a bit more with them.

STANDARD “FLEX” LEAGUES

Pretty simple, this is the main form of fantasy football that everybody knows. You’re starting lineup includes:

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 1 RB or WR (FLEX)
• 2 WR
• 1 TE
• 1 D/ST
• 1 K

Points are awarded for TD’s and yardage.

STANDARD “OLD SCHOOL” LEAGUES

Also very simple, these standard leagues use a 3rd WR instead of a RB/WR flex. The starting lineup includes:

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 3 WR
• 1 TE
• 1 D/ST
• 1 K

Points are awarded for TD’s and yardage.

In leagues where you are required to start 3 WR and can only start 2 RB, there is mosdef a premium on WR’s. You are going to want to get two (three if possible) in the first five or six rounds of you draft. Because you can only start 2 RB’s, you will find that RB’s will fall in the draft and be readily available in free agency. Get one “stud” RB early, then fill out the rest of your roster before just loading up with high upside RB’s on your bench later.

EVERYTHING ELSE

Even with throwing the proverbial kitchen sink at it here, there’s no way I’m going to cover every facet of every fantasy football league. Here are a few things that I haven’t discussed yet:

1. LEAGUES WITH ACQUISITION LIMITS (and/or ACQUISITION FEES) - You have to be careful in free agency with these kind of leagues. You’ll either run out of moves or pay a hefty fee if you don’t. Plan accordingly during your draft. In these type of leagues it’s advisable to draft at least a backup TE and QB. Possibly a backup D/ST if you can pick two that fit well in a committee together. Don’t make a move just to make a move. But don’t be scared early in the year to chase the usual players who come out of nowhere on the waiver wire.
2. LEAGUES WITH NO WAIVER PROCESS - Good old free-for-all leagues. These are leagues where all free agent players are always available to every team. Period. If you cut a guy, he can instantly be picked up by another team. If you’re watching a game and a RB gets injured, you can pick up his backup immediately, first come, first serve. If you’re in one of these leagues, it’s up to you to be cutthroat. If you can have your smart phone or laptop with you at all times on Sundays, you should. It’s not your fault if you were prepared, or had the spare time. Likewise, if you’ve got too much going on in your life to constantly pay attention to your fantasy league, don’t be mad when you never get any of the good free agents.
3. LEAGUES WITH DRAFT PICK TRADING - This is easy. You want as many early picks as possible. If you end up with no middle-round picks, it’s just a “Stars and Scrubs” team, same as in an auction. I’m not interested in loading up on middle round picks, I’d rather have a couple extra early round picks and just have to nail my sleepers and whatnot in the late rounds. Also, don’t be afraid to move a draft pick for a proven commodity.
4. LEAGUES WITH A LOUSY TRADE PROCESS - These are the leagues where it’s impossible to make a trade because everybody objects. You really only have three options: (A) Get in a new league. (B) Accept the fact that you can’t trade in this league. (C) Try to sneak the trade in a weird time. Like over a holiday weekend, during a blizzard or on a Friday night. Sometime when everybody isn’t going to be at their computer. It’s really your only chance.
5. WEEKLY FANTASY LEAGUES - These are more contests than fantasy leagues. Basically you get to draft team every week. When I play these formats, it’s all about the match-ups. I’m really less concerned with the players than who their playing against. Especially because these contests operate with a salary cap and the usual “studs” cost a ton. Find as many juicy match-ups as you can, then fill in the rest with your “studs” and such.
6. HIGH STAKES FANTASY LEAGUES - These can include nation leagues such as the NFFC and FFPC. Or just leagues for at least $100. These leagues are going to be very difficult. These guys know what they are doing. All of your “sleepers” are going to go ROUNDS earlier then they would in the exact same league for less dough. In these leagues you need a very specific draft plan and you can’t get rattled when it seems like every player you want is being drafted right before your pick.
7. PUNTERS AND HEAD COACHES IN FANTASY FOOTBALL - Sigh. There are some leagues that resort to such things. For me they’re just more picks at the end of the draft to keep my kicker company. Unless you’re in a league that really loves punters. In that case, pry time to find a new league.

NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT

Now for something fantasy, but not fantasy football. Do you also play fantasy baseball, basketball or hockey? Maybe even fantasy college football or hockey? DON’T FORGET ABOUT THESE TEAMS! It’s very easy to get distracted by football as the baseball season ends. While you’re worrying about what kicker to start in Week 3, you’ve got no idea who the two-start pitchers are for your fantasy baseball playoffs. PAY ATTENTION. It looks like you won’t have to worry about basketball this year. But if so, set aside separate time to deal with it. Same for hockey. Football is a more compressed fantasy sport due to the limited number of weeks and games. Other fantasy sports are more of a grind and it’s easy to be distracted by the weekly excitement of football. Don’t fall into that trap.

Well, I guess that’s about 30% of everything. But it’s all I’ve got for now. Well except for the stuff that I forgot. I’m always interested in leagues, formats, rules and whatnot that I haven’t played in or heard of. If you’ve got something like that, let me know. Comment or hit up the Twitter nonsense.

I deliberately didn’t cover eliminator games, survivor pools or weekly picks contests. Those are more gaming than fantasy and will be covered in a separate post. Degenerates unite!