Shuffle Off To Buffalo

So T.O. is a Buffalo Bill. He got a fully-guaranteed, 1-year $6.5 million dollar contract. Let's peep some of the different layers of this deal.

For the most part, this was a home run for the Bills. Do I believe that Terrell Owens destroys football teams? Yes. But not in Year 1. For T.O. Year 1 is all about proving the naysayers wrong and collecting that big first year money. Could the Bills have waited and maybe saved a few million? Could they have structured a contract that paid him based upon how many games he played? Sure. Would either of those options made T.O. happy? Not a prayer. The Bills paid T.O. fairly close to market value by choice. They've done a masterful job of setting the table here. T.O. has to be on top of his game (on and off the field) if he ever wants another payday and another day in the spotlight. He's paid and he has to be motivated somewhat by all of the teams who came out publicly and said they had no interest in T.O. or that T.O. was a cancer or that T.O. drops the ball too much. Worst case scenario the Bills cut him mid-season after he's decimated Trent Edwards' confidence completely. Best case scenario T.O. frees up Lee Evans to run wild and the holes for the running backs get bigger with each step back the opposing safety takes.

The Bills needed to make a splash. They really hadn't done so in years, pry since the Drew Bledsoe trade. If they want to maintain a stable franchise in Buffalo they have to either win a lot or garner a great deal of national attention which will in turn bring prime-time games and coverage back to Buffalo. This move should help the Toronto game quite a bit as Canadians are probably still curious about "that Owens guy".

Buffalo is running a bit of a locker room risk here. There's not a large veteran presence in the locker room to help keep Owens in check. Jauron is a good coach but he's on the hot seat as it is. I actually think this is going to be a very good experience for Trent Edwards. First off, he needed another weapon not named Evans or Lynch so bad it was actually kind of sad. Owens was the biggest playmaker available right now, by far. Owens has come out before and talked about how he makes quarterbacks better. In this case I actually think that Owens is going to be very motivated to turn Trent Edwards into a star. Because that will prove that T.O. makes the quarterback better, not T.O. needs a great quarterback to excel. Where were the Bills going before this move? They were 0-6 in the division last season and they've lost some players in free agency already.

The city of Buffalo is a unique place to live and be a sports fan. They only have the Bills and the Sabres and neither team exactly has a history of getting it done at crunch time. Every year these fans get their hearts crushed. And every off-season neither team has enough cash to keep their own players, much less buy somebody elses. But these fans slowly build up their faith and by the time the season starts, the whole city is ready to go. And they ultimately get let down, be it by the players, the coaches, ownership, management and the ever-fickle Gods of Sport. Hear this Terrell Eldorado Owens, these fans will love you in training camp. These fans will love you on Opening Day. They'll even love you after you drop that first easy pass any NFL wide receiver should catch. But if you open your mouth and that T.O. shit comes out of it you might as well just go home. This isn't Dallas where they encourage personalities to be larger than the team. This isn't Philly where the fanbase was so desperate for a playmaker that had T.O. never turned on the team he would still be the King of Philly right now. Those people loved T.O. so much deep down that when he was cut free a few days ago that they began to remember the "good" T.O. that they had for a little under a season. Couldn't happen, too many hearts broken, too many bridges burned. Beware son, beware.

After this there will be 1 A-Rod post and then I'm declaring a "Terrell Owens/Alex Rodriguez Free-Zone" until March 15. Unless either of them die they will not be mentioned in this space and I don't even think I'll even feel like talking about either of them at the bar over a couple of cold adult beverages.

T,O. Gets TKO'd

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is a pattern. The Cowboys are the third franchise to cut ties with Terrell Owens. Owens has only played for three teams. (Although he once was traded to the Ravens and he promptly decided he didn't want to play for the Ravens. So we really don't count that as being on a team.) So what does it all mean? Well that's too deep of a question to explore today so let's just examine the obvious T.O. fallout.

The list of suitors for T.O. is going to be tiny. The money will be even smaller. Except for maybe the Raiders. They're the wild card and the obvious fit for T.O. at first glance. Al Davis might be willing to throw T.O. $5+ million for a season or two. Why not? T.O. could get his 8 billion targets per game and Russell would at least have a competent, healthy WR. It would ultimately be a disaster but what the hell right? Anyway, he only goes to a non-Al Davis team on a 1 year near the minimum with a couple of incentives deal. Let's just list the teams that Owens will NOT be playing for: Cowboys, 49er's, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Patriots, Dolphins, Chiefs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Falcons, Browns and Chargers. That's 18 teams. Add in the Raiders and it's 19 teams. Out of the remaining 13 teams I really can't see the Colts, Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Bengals, Lions, Rams or Texans adding Owens. So that leaves 5 teams (not owned by Al Davis) that I could see having some possible interest in Owens: Jaguars, Jets, Broncos, Titans and Bills. The Jaguars, Titans and Bills would only probably kick the tires because of positional needs and the fact that Owens could be had on the cheap. He would instantly be the best receiver on either the Jaguars or Titans and he could be the answer the Bills have been looking for opposite Lee Evans. Thing is I doubt any of the those 3 teams have a QB that could handle/satisfy Owens. The Jets are an interesting study. My guess would be they're not interested but it could be a fit, except for the Jets glaring hole at QB. The Jets will need to sell seats in their new stadium and Coles just hit the road. The Broncos would represent the most interesting option. Josh McDaniels saw Randy Moss reform why not T.O.? He could work opposite Brandon Marshall or replace Marshall for a period of time if Marshall is suspended. Is it going to happen? I doubt it. But remember, Brian Dawkins was a T.O. supporter and he's now one of the leaders in that Denver locker room.

Personally I've felt Owens has been a bit overrated and not worth the trouble for about the last 5 years. I hope that he goes to the Raiders and it fails spectacularly. Those press conferences alone will be worth the cost of admission. If Owens was properly motivated could he help a team? Absolutely. But it's always been about T.O. and that's the problem. He and Al Davis really deserve each other, just like Owens and Jerry Jones. I've said ever since Owens left Philly that no team with him on the roster would ever win a meaningful game. I stand by that.

What does this do for fantasy football values? Let's just look at the Cowboys real quick. I'm expecting Felix Jones to start, (playing the Julius Jones role) with Barber going back to his short yardage/redzone/4th quarter role. Without Owens both of those backs should be a bit more involved. I think this won't hurt Romo's value at all. Romo will no longer have to worry about forcing balls to Owens and Roy Williams is a better downfield threat than Owens at this point of his career. Williams could easily become a top-10 WR this year in fantasy. This solidifies Witten as the #1 fantasy TE in my mind. He should see increased redzone looks and this should offset any touches he might have lost to their other TE, Bennett. I don't think the Cowboys will make a big move at WR, maybe they bring in a veteran Bobby Ingram-type but that's about it. They'll draft a WR in the 3rd or 4th round and move on. If I had to rate the other Cowboys WR's right now it would be 1) Williams 2) Miles Austin 3) Patrick Crayton 4) Sam Hurd.

I know more than a few people in Philadelphia have suggested that Owens could return. McNabb would love him again and it would be all good. Not going to happen. You or I have a better chance of playing WR for the Eagles next year. Not even if he offered to pay the team a salary and offered to kiss Andy Reid's bare ass on Sportscenter. Not going to happen.

So What Does It All Mean?

"Kurt Warner re-upped, Ray Lewis re-upped, now who got a problem with dough?"

It appears Ray Lewis got about $7 million per year with a good amount guaranteed. That's not super-dough, but it's large. But this deal was a forgone conclusion. Linebackers not named Ray Lewis (or Terrell Suggs these days) have to leave Baltimore to get paid. Ray Lewis gets paid to stay. Lewis was quoted as saying that he would sign the deal that paid him the most money, regardless of who offered it. So I take that to mean that Baltimore offered more than any other team. There was a rumor that the Jets were interested but Lewis wanted insane money. But hey, rumors are rumors and Ray Lewis is a Raven.

I decided to compare the Brian Dawkins situation to the Ray Lewis situation. Might not be a completely even comparison but this isn't the SAT. Both are regarded to be on the back stretch of their careers. Most didn't think either was even the best at their position on their team last year. Both are regarded as the heart and soul of their respective franchises. Both of those franchises are coming off of conference championship game losses. Both teams had enough salary cap room to retain the players. That's enough in common to make a valid comparison. So what are the differences?

• While most regard Ray Lewis as a player in decline he's still a top-tier middle linebacker. He doesn't make as many plays sideline-to-sideline as he used to but if the d-line can keep the big guys off of him he will make plays. Dawkins made plays in the second half of the season but he struggles mightily in coverage these days. The Eagles have really struggled defending against tight ends the past couple of seasons. That used to be a Dawkins job. Eagles fans will remember how tightly he used to play a young Jeremy Shockey.
• Both franchises made offers to the players before free agency opened. Lewis could not find other offers and Dawkins could.
  
• Both franchises talked about how much the players meant to their respective franchises and how important it was to retain these players. This came from owners, coaches and teammates. The Ravens made an aggressive offer to Lewis that was apparently very close to market value. The Eagles made Dawkins a decent offer but they did not offer the type of money in the first two years that the Broncos did. So on some level Lewis still knew he was wanted, Dawkins probably wasn't so sure based on the disparity between offers.

Not a perfect analysis but it is what it is. If I had to guess I would say that next season Lewis plays just about as well as he did this season, barring injury. I'm not so sure about Dawkins in the AFC West. Why? Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Zack Miller. Plus Lewis is still surrounded by a great deal of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Outside of Dawkins, Champ Bailey and DJ Williams how much talent does Denver have on defense?

Kurt Warner re-signed with the Cardinals. Big surprise there huh? Couple of bat hits about that real quick.

• What were the 49er's thinking? Did they ever really think that Warner would sign with them? Maybe for top-5 QB money but why? The Niners are a re-building franchise that needs a future, not a Band-Aid. Outside of Frank Gore they don't really have much at the skill positions on offense. Plus, while Warner has proved to be a complete stud in certain situations, he's struggled mightily in others. He fits well in the controlled-climate stadium in the desert. How good would he be if he had to play most of his games truly outside?
  
• What does this mean for Anquan Boldin. My first instinct is that he's staying. My second instinct is that he's not going to get paid this year and that might cause some problems. I think Warner has some insight into this, his free agent status was the only thing that really gave him any leverage in the situation. Boldin is staying. My best guess is that the Cardinals re-work his deal with a massive bonus due after the season. At that point they can pay him or trade him. And Boldin knows that he's in a good situation, with a good QB with a big payday guaranteed (except for injury) on the horizon. Drew Rosenhaus won't be happy, but when is he ever?
• Where does Kurt Warner rank in fantasy football next season? It's a bit early to ask but I'm skeptical. I stole Warner in almost every league I was in last year and was loving it. But he won't sneak up on anybody this year and most likely will be in the top 5 QB's off the board. He just doesn't have a history of staying healthy and the Cardinals really need something at TE and a consistent running game. I still love Boldin and Fitzgerald but I'm wary about Warner. I would rather have (in no particular order): Peyton, Brees, Cutler, Rivers, Romo, Rodgers and Brady. So I guess I have Warner about 8th. I have him and McNabb about even.