The writing was really on the wall for the Lil' General huh? What a story. Groomed as Don Nelson's successor. A Finals appearance and a Coach of the Year award in his first full season as coach. You could've written off blowing a 2-0 Finals lead to the Heat. They had a highly-motivated Shaq, an en fuego Dwayne Wade and a nice supporting cast of veterans. True to that, the Mavericks won 67 games the next season. That's the 5th most in NBA history. And then the Creator became the Destroyer. Don Nelson's 8th seeded Warriors ran over the highly favored #1 seeded Mavericks. The teacher had whipped the pupil. Mark Cuban, to his credit, maintained his cool for a hot minute. There were no immediate changes, trades or signings. In the Mavericks defense the Celtics summer moves prompted quite a few veterans to sign with the Celtics. Had the Celtics still been bottom feeders the Mavs may have been able to get a James Posey, PJ Brown or Sam Cassell.
The Mavs started out slow and it was curtains. The Mavs had lost the edge that Johnson had given them when he first came on as coach. You could also tell that owner Mark Cuban and Johnson were no longer seeing eye to eye on things. Then the Lakers acquisition of Pau Gasol for a jar of farts and some other throw ins happened. Mark Cuban finally flipped his lid. It was win now time, the future be damned.
Mark Cuban had stated for several seasons that he would under no circumstances trade young PG Devin Harris. The Mavericks needed an honest to god post presence both on offense an as a shot blocker on defense. Not to mention the combination of Devin Harris and Jason Terry at the point was at least adequate if not above average. But Cuban wanted a Hall of Fame type player. Ironically, he needed such a player to restore the attitude it the locker room that he had found and lost under Johnson. So he traded for Jason Kidd.
Not only did he trade for Jason Kidd he did it at an enormous expense. Kidd cost him Devin Harris (the Mavs best young player and the only player they had that could match up with the Steve Nash and Tony Parkers of the world) Desagana Diop (their best post defender) a couple of throw ins, $3 million in cash and 2 first round draft picks. Not to mention having to sign and trade Keith Van Horn to make the cap numbers work. This skyrocketed the Mavericks luxury tax bill and sent their payroll over the $100 million dollar threshold. That's Isiah Thomas territory kids.
The scent of desperation was in the air and the sharks were circling. The Mavs stumbled out of the gate with Kidd and their effectiveness against their Western Conference rivals was worse than it was before the acquisition of of Kidd. Then Avery Johnson parked Jason Kidd on the bench with the game on the line. That was it. You had Cuban and Kidd on one side and Johnson on the other. Now it wasn't just win-now. It was win-now-or-else.
Most of us figured the ultimate outcome would be or-else. It just happened sooner than later. The Hornets had quietly been an elite team all year and Dallas just happened to be in town for the coming out party. Without Devin Harris they didn't have anybody remotely capable of holding Chris Paul in check and CP3 ran wild. Game, set and match. It wasn't even close.
So the Mavericks and Avery Johnson decided to part ways today. No real surprise there. Cuban couldn't handle Johnson's lack of recent playoff success and Johnson couldn't handle being micro-managed and ignored by Cuban. It was obvious that the Mavericks needed a change and this is the cheapest and fastest one possible. Not to say that there aren't more moves on the horizon. There most certainly are. But Cuban will be limited in what he can actually acquire without parting with Josh Howard or Dirk. But after Josh Howard's comments about his off-season activities, maybe such a move could be coming. We'll hit on that more in an upcoming post.
All in all this is a good move for the team and for Avery Johnson. Probably both in the long-term and the short-term.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Suns To Fire D'Antoni. Is This Really A Good Move?
This is not official yet but is being reported heavily by SI.com. Let's hop in our Delorean, feed Mr. Fusion and hit 88 miles-per-hour. No, we're not going back to 1955, we're so sick of that year. Instead let's go back to 2003. Some guy (Mike D'Antoni) who has been coaching in Europe is picked to take over as the coach of the Phoenix Suns at mid-season. He brought with him a fast-paced style of basketball that hadn't been run in the NBA in more than a hot minute. He led a D-League team to 21 wins in 61 games. Remember this is immediately after the Stephon Marbury trade. Howard Eisley, Charlie Ward, Antonio McDyess and Maciej Lampe replaced Marbury, Penny Hardaway and Cezary Trybanski. Who woulda thought that 4 years later it looks like McDyess was the best player in that deal? (Just a note, when researching the Marbury trade I noticed that the Knicks still owe the Suns their first-round pick in 2010. Unless the Suns have traded it away, which they might have. Isiah is just the gift that keeps on giving ain't he?)
Bryan Colangelo made a series of outstanding moves to provide D-Antoni with the firepower he needed to run his system. He drafted Amare Stoudemire, acquired Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson (then traded him for Kurt Thomas, thanks again Isiah), Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw (in a trade for Joe Johnson, Tim Thomas and most importantly Steve Nash. (Someday soon we'll revisit that signing, it's worth it) So it's fair to say that D'Antoni was given a lot of talent to work with. The supporting cast was in a constant state of flux but the core remained the same until Marion was dealt for Shaq in 2008. (Although I'm still convinced that the sole purpose of that deal was to dump Marcus Banks and his contract)
Mike D'Antoni Suns Career (03-08)
YEAR TEAM G W L PCT POSTW POSTL
2004 Phoenix Suns 61 21 40 .344 0 0
2005 Phoenix Suns 82 62 20 .756 9 6
2006 Phoenix Suns 82 54 28 .659 10 10
2007 Phoenix Suns 82 61 21 .744 6 5
2008 Phoenix Suns 82 55 27 .671 1 4
Let's examine the talent of the Phoenix Suns under D'Antoni
Players who've been All-Star caliber under D'Antoni and under another coach
-Steve Nash
-Joe Johnson
-Shawn Marion
Players drafted under D'Antoni who have been very good to All-Star caliber
-Amare Stoudemire
-Leandro Barbosa
Players who have been better under a coach other than D'Antoni
-Kurt Thomas
-Marcus Banks
Players who have thrived under D'Antoni as opposed to another coach or team
-Raja Bell
-Quentin Richardson
-Tim Thomas
-Boris Diaw
*Not included in this list are Grant Hill and Shaquille O'Neal both of whom were acquired after Colangelo departed. Hill was as productive for D'Antoni as he's been this decade and Shaq played much better than he had in Miami this season, silencing his detractors who called for his retirement.
It's safe to say that D'Antoni has gotten the most out of his players. Kurt Thomas was hurt too often and he got erratic playing time due to the Suns running "small ball" a great deal of the time. Marcus Banks was only ever any good in college and for about 25 games in Minnesota which he parlayed into his contract with the Suns. He's not a cerebral or unselfish enough point guard for D'Antoni's system. Other than those two, every major rotation player D'Antoni's ever had has played as well, or better, than he has his entire career. That's the sign of a good coach. Some other signs include never winning less than 54 games in the regular season, reaching the Western Conference Finals twice and reaching the post-season every year in a grueling Western Conference. Yes he's failed to make it to, or win the NBA Finals but it's a select group of teams that have been able to do that this decade. The Pistons and the Heat had their moments but the 2000's have belonged to San Antonio and Los Angeles. It's not like the Suns were losing to the #8 seed every year in the playoffs.
We have a couple of historical examples for this and they don't bode well for the Suns. Two coaches with a very similar history (albeit in different sports) are Marv Levy (Buffalo Bills, 4 straight Super Bowl losses, multiple other playoff losses) and Andy Reid (Philadelphia Eagles, 3 straight conference finals losses, 1 Super Bowl loss, multiple other playoff losses). I guess that the trend is that sometimes it just doesn't happen even if the team and the coach are both excellent. Both of these coaches continued to get their teams to the post-season year after year and that's something you have to do in order to give yourself a chance to win it all.
So should the Suns fire D'Antoni? Not a chance in hell. Even with Shaq they're still built to run and their window is currently next year. That's it. It's one year at a time from here on out and they don't have a lot of rebuilding options. Shaq is untradeable, Amare is their most important player and without Nash they have a gaping hole at PG. Plus at Nash's age and with his medical history, it's questionable how much they could really get back for him. So the Suns' options are to (A) Keep D'Antoni, actually use a draft pick or two and get another big man for the rotation (B) Bring in another coach to run D'Antoni's system. Why would you buy a Go-Bot when you already have Optimus Prime? (C) The Hiroshima option. Trade everybody except Barbosa and Amare, hang onto to Shaq's deal as it expires and make a push for Dwayne Wade in 2010. (D) If AI opts out of his contract this June do everything possible to get him to take a mid-level deal for a year or two to make a title push, Denver ain't going anywhere (E) Trade Nash straight up for Jason Kidd. Why not? Seriously, why not? They both would get to return to their original home-after-home. Again.
To recap, you're best chance to win is roll with what you've got and try to make a couple of short-term tweaks. Most of the Suns contracts will expire in or by 2010 so they're in pretty good shape for the future. And they MUST USE THEIR DRAFT PICKS TO DRAFT PLAYERS. Part of the Suns problem is a lack of quality depth which stems from trading away first round draft choices year after year for cash. And to avoid the luxury tax. These aren't NFL rookies there, their is a set pay-scale and they're cheap for 4 years. Get with the program.
Bryan Colangelo made a series of outstanding moves to provide D-Antoni with the firepower he needed to run his system. He drafted Amare Stoudemire, acquired Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson (then traded him for Kurt Thomas, thanks again Isiah), Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw (in a trade for Joe Johnson, Tim Thomas and most importantly Steve Nash. (Someday soon we'll revisit that signing, it's worth it) So it's fair to say that D'Antoni was given a lot of talent to work with. The supporting cast was in a constant state of flux but the core remained the same until Marion was dealt for Shaq in 2008. (Although I'm still convinced that the sole purpose of that deal was to dump Marcus Banks and his contract)
Mike D'Antoni Suns Career (03-08)
YEAR TEAM G W L PCT POSTW POSTL
2004 Phoenix Suns 61 21 40 .344 0 0
2005 Phoenix Suns 82 62 20 .756 9 6
2006 Phoenix Suns 82 54 28 .659 10 10
2007 Phoenix Suns 82 61 21 .744 6 5
2008 Phoenix Suns 82 55 27 .671 1 4
Let's examine the talent of the Phoenix Suns under D'Antoni
Players who've been All-Star caliber under D'Antoni and under another coach
-Steve Nash
-Joe Johnson
-Shawn Marion
Players drafted under D'Antoni who have been very good to All-Star caliber
-Amare Stoudemire
-Leandro Barbosa
Players who have been better under a coach other than D'Antoni
-Kurt Thomas
-Marcus Banks
Players who have thrived under D'Antoni as opposed to another coach or team
-Raja Bell
-Quentin Richardson
-Tim Thomas
-Boris Diaw
*Not included in this list are Grant Hill and Shaquille O'Neal both of whom were acquired after Colangelo departed. Hill was as productive for D'Antoni as he's been this decade and Shaq played much better than he had in Miami this season, silencing his detractors who called for his retirement.
It's safe to say that D'Antoni has gotten the most out of his players. Kurt Thomas was hurt too often and he got erratic playing time due to the Suns running "small ball" a great deal of the time. Marcus Banks was only ever any good in college and for about 25 games in Minnesota which he parlayed into his contract with the Suns. He's not a cerebral or unselfish enough point guard for D'Antoni's system. Other than those two, every major rotation player D'Antoni's ever had has played as well, or better, than he has his entire career. That's the sign of a good coach. Some other signs include never winning less than 54 games in the regular season, reaching the Western Conference Finals twice and reaching the post-season every year in a grueling Western Conference. Yes he's failed to make it to, or win the NBA Finals but it's a select group of teams that have been able to do that this decade. The Pistons and the Heat had their moments but the 2000's have belonged to San Antonio and Los Angeles. It's not like the Suns were losing to the #8 seed every year in the playoffs.
We have a couple of historical examples for this and they don't bode well for the Suns. Two coaches with a very similar history (albeit in different sports) are Marv Levy (Buffalo Bills, 4 straight Super Bowl losses, multiple other playoff losses) and Andy Reid (Philadelphia Eagles, 3 straight conference finals losses, 1 Super Bowl loss, multiple other playoff losses). I guess that the trend is that sometimes it just doesn't happen even if the team and the coach are both excellent. Both of these coaches continued to get their teams to the post-season year after year and that's something you have to do in order to give yourself a chance to win it all.
So should the Suns fire D'Antoni? Not a chance in hell. Even with Shaq they're still built to run and their window is currently next year. That's it. It's one year at a time from here on out and they don't have a lot of rebuilding options. Shaq is untradeable, Amare is their most important player and without Nash they have a gaping hole at PG. Plus at Nash's age and with his medical history, it's questionable how much they could really get back for him. So the Suns' options are to (A) Keep D'Antoni, actually use a draft pick or two and get another big man for the rotation (B) Bring in another coach to run D'Antoni's system. Why would you buy a Go-Bot when you already have Optimus Prime? (C) The Hiroshima option. Trade everybody except Barbosa and Amare, hang onto to Shaq's deal as it expires and make a push for Dwayne Wade in 2010. (D) If AI opts out of his contract this June do everything possible to get him to take a mid-level deal for a year or two to make a title push, Denver ain't going anywhere (E) Trade Nash straight up for Jason Kidd. Why not? Seriously, why not? They both would get to return to their original home-after-home. Again.
To recap, you're best chance to win is roll with what you've got and try to make a couple of short-term tweaks. Most of the Suns contracts will expire in or by 2010 so they're in pretty good shape for the future. And they MUST USE THEIR DRAFT PICKS TO DRAFT PLAYERS. Part of the Suns problem is a lack of quality depth which stems from trading away first round draft choices year after year for cash. And to avoid the luxury tax. These aren't NFL rookies there, their is a set pay-scale and they're cheap for 4 years. Get with the program.
Monday, April 28, 2008
NFL Draft 2008 Grades
I linked y'all to Mel Kiper's Draft Grades. I do not believe in grading a draft anything before two full season after its conclusion. You cannot project exactly how a player is going to fit and perform in your system. So evaluations of this kinda are pointless. Yet millions of NFL obsessed fans will pour over these draft grades for the next couple of weeks. With such a high demand the sports outlets feel obligated to put out something. In my opinion, evaluating the draft picks 24 hours after the draft is more difficult than projecting next years first round 364 days before it occurs. But in the name of content I feel that there are several ways in which a draft can be evaluated in the immediate aftermath.
-Filling needs. In this case we will not penalize any team for "reaching" to fill a need. It happens, especially when you cannot find a team to trade down with. Free agency is over and this draft is basically the only way to fill the remaining holes on your roster. Taking the best player on the board is great but your lineup needs to be almost complete before you have that luxury.
-Getting value. This is the good old "take the best player on the board" mantra. This happens when a player falls for an inexplicable reason. Most of these falls are either because of medical issues, character issues or teams drafting to meet their needs. This is how players like Randy Moss slide so far.
-Paying off your mortgage. This is when teams stockpile future draft picks. It's not always a success and it's never sexy to the fans. But acquiring multiple picks in the next draft allows a team to greatly increase their options. They can trade for veteran players much easier and target specific players in the draft because of their wealth of picks. New England, San Diego, Dallas and Philadelphia all excel at this.
You cannot assign a letter or numerical grade to a draft class at this point. This is one area where a college grading system can help. In my system teams can get a "+" a "/" or a "-". A "+" means teams met at least 2 of my 3 criteria. A "/" means a team met at least 1 of my criteria. A "-" means a team failed to meet any of my criteria.
So without further ado here's my "grades" in particular order within their tiers although the teams I think of first probably did a little better in my mind. But I always forget somebody for a minute. It's the curse of not making enough notes before I start writing these things.
+ TEAMS
Kansas City
Minnesota (Jared Allen is included in this grade in my system)
Carolina
Green Bay
Washington
Dallas (Pacman Jones is included in this grade in my system)
Pittsburgh
Miami
Buffalo
Cleveland (Shaun Rodgers, Brady Quinn and Corey Williams are included in this grade in my system)
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Indianapolis (Tony Ugoh is included in this grade in my system)
New Orleans
New England
New York Jets
New York Giants
Jacksonville
/ TEAMS
San Francisco (Joe Staley is included in this grade in my system)
Cincinnati
Arizona
St Louis
Oakland
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Chicago
Seattle
San Diego (Eric Weddle is included in this grade in my system)
- TEAMS
Tennessee
Houston
Detroit
Denver
You'll notice a few trends here. 18 teams had "+" drafts. And with good reason. These players were drafted for a reason and everybody should be looking for them succeed. The players are young and healthy so there is great reason for optimism. Only 4 teams had "-" grades. And all four teams have had some trouble drafting in recent years. This happens because when teams miss on draft picks they fail to fill needs. Which means when the next draft rolls around you have more needs to fill than ever. It's a vicious cycle which can only be broken by having an outstanding draft, dabbling in free agency and trying like hell to find some good undrafted players. The NFC East is really setting up to be a war zone this year. All of those teams genuinely hate each other and they're all in win-now mode. San Diego just didn't have enough picks to properly place them this year.
We're all drafted out for a bit. We'll delve more into this later. Enjoy beeoches.
-Filling needs. In this case we will not penalize any team for "reaching" to fill a need. It happens, especially when you cannot find a team to trade down with. Free agency is over and this draft is basically the only way to fill the remaining holes on your roster. Taking the best player on the board is great but your lineup needs to be almost complete before you have that luxury.
-Getting value. This is the good old "take the best player on the board" mantra. This happens when a player falls for an inexplicable reason. Most of these falls are either because of medical issues, character issues or teams drafting to meet their needs. This is how players like Randy Moss slide so far.
-Paying off your mortgage. This is when teams stockpile future draft picks. It's not always a success and it's never sexy to the fans. But acquiring multiple picks in the next draft allows a team to greatly increase their options. They can trade for veteran players much easier and target specific players in the draft because of their wealth of picks. New England, San Diego, Dallas and Philadelphia all excel at this.
You cannot assign a letter or numerical grade to a draft class at this point. This is one area where a college grading system can help. In my system teams can get a "+" a "/" or a "-". A "+" means teams met at least 2 of my 3 criteria. A "/" means a team met at least 1 of my criteria. A "-" means a team failed to meet any of my criteria.
So without further ado here's my "grades" in particular order within their tiers although the teams I think of first probably did a little better in my mind. But I always forget somebody for a minute. It's the curse of not making enough notes before I start writing these things.
+ TEAMS
Kansas City
Minnesota (Jared Allen is included in this grade in my system)
Carolina
Green Bay
Washington
Dallas (Pacman Jones is included in this grade in my system)
Pittsburgh
Miami
Buffalo
Cleveland (Shaun Rodgers, Brady Quinn and Corey Williams are included in this grade in my system)
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Indianapolis (Tony Ugoh is included in this grade in my system)
New Orleans
New England
New York Jets
New York Giants
Jacksonville
/ TEAMS
San Francisco (Joe Staley is included in this grade in my system)
Cincinnati
Arizona
St Louis
Oakland
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
Chicago
Seattle
San Diego (Eric Weddle is included in this grade in my system)
- TEAMS
Tennessee
Houston
Detroit
Denver
You'll notice a few trends here. 18 teams had "+" drafts. And with good reason. These players were drafted for a reason and everybody should be looking for them succeed. The players are young and healthy so there is great reason for optimism. Only 4 teams had "-" grades. And all four teams have had some trouble drafting in recent years. This happens because when teams miss on draft picks they fail to fill needs. Which means when the next draft rolls around you have more needs to fill than ever. It's a vicious cycle which can only be broken by having an outstanding draft, dabbling in free agency and trying like hell to find some good undrafted players. The NFC East is really setting up to be a war zone this year. All of those teams genuinely hate each other and they're all in win-now mode. San Diego just didn't have enough picks to properly place them this year.
We're all drafted out for a bit. We'll delve more into this later. Enjoy beeoches.
2009 NFL Picks That Changed Hands
There were a record 33 trades during the NFL Draft this past weekend. Out of those 33 trades, 8 draft picks in the 2009 Draft changed hands. It always seems difficult to find a list of these so I'm gonna post one because I'm kill.
ROUND 1
Philadelphia Eagles receive Carolina Panthers first round pick
ROUND 2
New England Patriots receive San Diego Chargers second round pick
ROUND 3
Dallas Cowboys receive Cleveland Browns third round pick
ROUND 4
Dallas Cowboys receive Detroit Lions fourth round pick
ROUND 5
Philadelphia Eagles receive Cleveland Browns fifth round pick
ROUND 6
Green Bay Packers receive New Orleans Saints sixth round pick
Tennessee Titans receive Dallas Cowboys sixth round pick
ROUND 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers receive Jacksonville Jaguars seventh round pick
It's pretty obvious why the Patriots, Cowboys and Eagles always have 10+ picks in every draft. Cleveland GM Phil Savage vowed that he would not raid next year's draft picks to jump back into the fray this year. In the end Cleveland gave up their 3rd and 5th round picks in the 2009 Draft this year. In his defense, if Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson get traded next off-season he should easily be able to recoup these picks.
ROUND 1
Philadelphia Eagles receive Carolina Panthers first round pick
ROUND 2
New England Patriots receive San Diego Chargers second round pick
ROUND 3
Dallas Cowboys receive Cleveland Browns third round pick
ROUND 4
Dallas Cowboys receive Detroit Lions fourth round pick
ROUND 5
Philadelphia Eagles receive Cleveland Browns fifth round pick
ROUND 6
Green Bay Packers receive New Orleans Saints sixth round pick
Tennessee Titans receive Dallas Cowboys sixth round pick
ROUND 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers receive Jacksonville Jaguars seventh round pick
It's pretty obvious why the Patriots, Cowboys and Eagles always have 10+ picks in every draft. Cleveland GM Phil Savage vowed that he would not raid next year's draft picks to jump back into the fray this year. In the end Cleveland gave up their 3rd and 5th round picks in the 2009 Draft this year. In his defense, if Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson get traded next off-season he should easily be able to recoup these picks.
Kenny Phillips (Miami) #32 To The Giants
New York Giants
#32 Overall
Kenny Phillips (S) Miami
Nice pick by the Giants. I thought Phillips could've gone as early as 19 to Philly or to Seattle or the San Diego. Phillips represents a great value here and fills a pressing need for the Super Bowl champs. The Eagles may live to regret this, Brian Dawkins is 35 and they'll get to see Phillips at least twice a year for the next half of a decade.
#32 Overall
Kenny Phillips (S) Miami
Nice pick by the Giants. I thought Phillips could've gone as early as 19 to Philly or to Seattle or the San Diego. Phillips represents a great value here and fills a pressing need for the Super Bowl champs. The Eagles may live to regret this, Brian Dawkins is 35 and they'll get to see Phillips at least twice a year for the next half of a decade.
Nobody (Nowhere) #31 To The Patriots
New England Patriots
#31 Overall (Forfeited due to the Spygate scandal)
Nobody (Nothing) Nowhere
I just had to remind everybody that the Patriots were punished. The fact that they had the 7th overall pick made quite a few people forget that the Patriots were pretty heavily disciplined. That being said, if Matt Walsh has the goods the Patriots might not be picking in the first round for a long time. Kinda like the Minnesota Timberwolves after the Joe Smith fiasco.
#31 Overall (Forfeited due to the Spygate scandal)
Nobody (Nothing) Nowhere
I just had to remind everybody that the Patriots were punished. The fact that they had the 7th overall pick made quite a few people forget that the Patriots were pretty heavily disciplined. That being said, if Matt Walsh has the goods the Patriots might not be picking in the first round for a long time. Kinda like the Minnesota Timberwolves after the Joe Smith fiasco.
Dustin Keller (Purdue) #30 To The Jets
New York Jets
#30 Overall (Acquired from Green Bay for 2008 2nd and 4th round picks)
Dustin Keller (TE) Purdue
I think the Jets can live with this pick. A lot of mocks had Keller going a couple of picks earlier to the Seahawks and the top couple of TE's should be off of the board by the end of the second round. It's a toss up between Keller and USC's Fred Davis for best rookie TE in my opinion. Davis is the better all-around TE and Keller is more explosive. Whoever QB's the Jets needs more weapons and this will help. Especially if Pennington wins the job.
#30 Overall (Acquired from Green Bay for 2008 2nd and 4th round picks)
Dustin Keller (TE) Purdue
I think the Jets can live with this pick. A lot of mocks had Keller going a couple of picks earlier to the Seahawks and the top couple of TE's should be off of the board by the end of the second round. It's a toss up between Keller and USC's Fred Davis for best rookie TE in my opinion. Davis is the better all-around TE and Keller is more explosive. Whoever QB's the Jets needs more weapons and this will help. Especially if Pennington wins the job.
Kentwan Balmer (UNC) #29 To The 49'ers
San Francisco 49'ers
#29 Overall (Acquired from Indianapolis)
Kentwan Balmer (DT) UNC
Interesting pick here. Not a horrible value, it's just a question of how Balmer projects into the 49'ers 3-4 defense. If he fits well this is an excellent pick. If he doesn't do anything for a year or two it will be pretty obvious he belongs inside in 3-4. Again, this would have been an excellent spot for the first WR to come off of the board. Alex Smith really doesn't have much to throw to, even if Vernon Davis finally shows up. I wonder if the 49'ers would ever consider making a run and Ocho Stinko? Probably not after the T.O. Experience but he would seem to fit a big need and the 49'ers, their coaching staff, their fans and Alex Smith all need to have a good season. Right now.
#29 Overall (Acquired from Indianapolis)
Kentwan Balmer (DT) UNC
Interesting pick here. Not a horrible value, it's just a question of how Balmer projects into the 49'ers 3-4 defense. If he fits well this is an excellent pick. If he doesn't do anything for a year or two it will be pretty obvious he belongs inside in 3-4. Again, this would have been an excellent spot for the first WR to come off of the board. Alex Smith really doesn't have much to throw to, even if Vernon Davis finally shows up. I wonder if the 49'ers would ever consider making a run and Ocho Stinko? Probably not after the T.O. Experience but he would seem to fit a big need and the 49'ers, their coaching staff, their fans and Alex Smith all need to have a good season. Right now.
Lawrence Jackson (USC) #28 To The Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks
#28 Overall (Acquired from Dallas)
Lawrence Jackson (DE) USC
The Seahawks were in a position to take the best player on the board and it would seem like they reached here. They did trade back 3 picks, gaining 5th and 7th round picks this year. Most mock drafts had them going with a RB or TE here and I feel they have a fairly pressing need at WR as well. This could've been the perfect spot for Devin Thomas to come off of the board. If they wanted to go with a DE, Phillip Merling is still on the board and would've represented better value.
#28 Overall (Acquired from Dallas)
Lawrence Jackson (DE) USC
The Seahawks were in a position to take the best player on the board and it would seem like they reached here. They did trade back 3 picks, gaining 5th and 7th round picks this year. Most mock drafts had them going with a RB or TE here and I feel they have a fairly pressing need at WR as well. This could've been the perfect spot for Devin Thomas to come off of the board. If they wanted to go with a DE, Phillip Merling is still on the board and would've represented better value.
Antoine Cason (Arizona) #27 To The Chargers
San Diego Chargers
#27 Overall
Antoine Cason (CB) Arizona
Good job by the Chargers to resist burning another high pick on a WR. They needed a CB to replace Drayton Florence as their nickel corner. Cason was the highest player left on the board. Thought that they might take a flier here on Miami's Kenny Phillips but I guess re-signing Clinton Hart addressed that need for them. Good value here and given San Diego's recent draft history I expect Cason to be an excellent nickel corner in the near future.
#27 Overall
Antoine Cason (CB) Arizona
Good job by the Chargers to resist burning another high pick on a WR. They needed a CB to replace Drayton Florence as their nickel corner. Cason was the highest player left on the board. Thought that they might take a flier here on Miami's Kenny Phillips but I guess re-signing Clinton Hart addressed that need for them. Good value here and given San Diego's recent draft history I expect Cason to be an excellent nickel corner in the near future.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Duane Brown (Virginia Tech) #26 To The Texans
Houston Texans
#26 Overall (Acquired from Baltimore via Jacksonville)
Duane Brown (OT) Virgina Tech
This is called reaching to fill a need. The Texans have needed OL help since their inception. But this was a reach. I think they got too cute trying to trade down and they went too far. If they can hit on one of the extra picks they got this is fine pick. This is the danger zone right here.
#26 Overall (Acquired from Baltimore via Jacksonville)
Duane Brown (OT) Virgina Tech
This is called reaching to fill a need. The Texans have needed OL help since their inception. But this was a reach. I think they got too cute trying to trade down and they went too far. If they can hit on one of the extra picks they got this is fine pick. This is the danger zone right here.
Mike Jenkins (South Florida) #25 To The Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
#25 Overall (Acquired from Seattle for 2008 pick #28, a fifth and a seventh rounder)
Mike Jenkins (CB) South Florida
This is called Pac-Man Insurance. Jenkins can return kicks and is a pretty good cover corner. He also represents good value here. Jones was smart to maneuver up 3 spots to secure him. This also leaves Dallas free to go after a WR in round 2.
Pretty solid draft for the Cowboys so far. And it pains me to say that so you know it's true.
#25 Overall (Acquired from Seattle for 2008 pick #28, a fifth and a seventh rounder)
Mike Jenkins (CB) South Florida
This is called Pac-Man Insurance. Jenkins can return kicks and is a pretty good cover corner. He also represents good value here. Jones was smart to maneuver up 3 spots to secure him. This also leaves Dallas free to go after a WR in round 2.
Pretty solid draft for the Cowboys so far. And it pains me to say that so you know it's true.
Chris Johnson (East Carolina) #24 To The Titans
Tennessee Titans
#23 Overall
Chris Johnson (RB) East Carolina
No. Horrible pick. It's a reach, RB is just about the strongest position on the whole Titans team and Johnson is another combine creation. The Titans should know, they drafted last year's version in Chris Henry. That means in the last three drafts the Titans have spend 2 second round and 1 first round pick on running backs. If the Titans are eliminating the forward pass from their playbooks this makes a lot of sense. Otherwise I hate this pick.
#23 Overall
Chris Johnson (RB) East Carolina
No. Horrible pick. It's a reach, RB is just about the strongest position on the whole Titans team and Johnson is another combine creation. The Titans should know, they drafted last year's version in Chris Henry. That means in the last three drafts the Titans have spend 2 second round and 1 first round pick on running backs. If the Titans are eliminating the forward pass from their playbooks this makes a lot of sense. Otherwise I hate this pick.
Rashard Mendenhall (Illinois) #23 To The Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
#23 Overall
Rashard Mendenhall (RB) Illinois
Pittsburgh got screwed by Carolina and Atlanta trading up for OL. The Steelers primary need is help for their O-Line. That being said, Willie Parker will be made much better by the presence of Mendenhall. And Mendenhall represented excellent value at #23. Pittsburgh was the perfect spot for him to land. Willie Parker's fantasy value just took a huge hit though.
#23 Overall
Rashard Mendenhall (RB) Illinois
Pittsburgh got screwed by Carolina and Atlanta trading up for OL. The Steelers primary need is help for their O-Line. That being said, Willie Parker will be made much better by the presence of Mendenhall. And Mendenhall represented excellent value at #23. Pittsburgh was the perfect spot for him to land. Willie Parker's fantasy value just took a huge hit though.
Felix Jones (Arkansas) #22 To The Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
#22 Overall (Acquired from Cleveland)
Felix Jones (RB) Arkansas
Another shocker. Sarcasm doesn't translate well to text. Jerry Jones got his Arkansas back to complement Marion Barber. Next up, paying Marion Barber. Good luck. I feel like Dallas has bigger needs than a complimentary RB but I guess this is the new shit. It looks like Dallas was smart to grab Jones here instead of hoping he fell to 28.
#22 Overall (Acquired from Cleveland)
Felix Jones (RB) Arkansas
Another shocker. Sarcasm doesn't translate well to text. Jerry Jones got his Arkansas back to complement Marion Barber. Next up, paying Marion Barber. Good luck. I feel like Dallas has bigger needs than a complimentary RB but I guess this is the new shit. It looks like Dallas was smart to grab Jones here instead of hoping he fell to 28.
Sam Baker (USC) #21 To The Falcons
Atlanta Falcons
#21 Overall (Acquired from Washington for )
Sam Baker (OT) USC
Good work Atlanta! I've never said that about anything Atlanta other than Outkast and their airport. They drafted their QB and then they were smart enough to go get somebody who will make sure he doesn't die. Or become David Carr Jr. Baker was highly rated last year and was graded as a late-first, early-second round pick this year. He was mosdef the best OL on the board.
#21 Overall (Acquired from Washington for )
Sam Baker (OT) USC
Good work Atlanta! I've never said that about anything Atlanta other than Outkast and their airport. They drafted their QB and then they were smart enough to go get somebody who will make sure he doesn't die. Or become David Carr Jr. Baker was highly rated last year and was graded as a late-first, early-second round pick this year. He was mosdef the best OL on the board.
Aqib Talib (Kansas) #20 To The Bucs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#20 Overall
Aqib Talib (CB) Kansas
Tampa was the previous front runner to trade for Lito Sheppard. Guess that's dead. Talib might have been the best corner in the draft but he dropped because he wasn't exactly truthful about his history with Mary Jane (Chronic). He's got size and speed and should fit well in the Tampa 2 as long as he proves himself to be a good tackler. Good restraint by Tampa here to address a need on D instead of reaching on a WR or adding yet another QB. But knowing Gruden do not discount the possibility of taking either in the second round.
#20 Overall
Aqib Talib (CB) Kansas
Tampa was the previous front runner to trade for Lito Sheppard. Guess that's dead. Talib might have been the best corner in the draft but he dropped because he wasn't exactly truthful about his history with Mary Jane (Chronic). He's got size and speed and should fit well in the Tampa 2 as long as he proves himself to be a good tackler. Good restraint by Tampa here to address a need on D instead of reaching on a WR or adding yet another QB. But knowing Gruden do not discount the possibility of taking either in the second round.
Jeff Otah (Pitt) #19 To The Panthers
Carolina Panthers
#19 Overall (Acquired from Philadelphia for their 2008 2nd and 4th round picks and their 2009 1st round pick)
Jeff Otah (OT) Pitt
Great draft for the Panthers. They paid through the nose to get Otah but he'll team with Jordan Gross to give the Panthers their much needed bookend tackles. Stewart will team with DeAngelo Williams to give the Panthers back their running game they've been sorely missing. Second best draft next to the Chiefs thus far.
Poor Philadelphia. Seriously. Knowing the Eagles they'll use both of their 2nd round picks on a kicker and a punter just to torture those fans. Otah would have been a pretty good fit and value. It was a touch high for Devin Thomas but a WR is gonna go at some point and then a little run will begin and the best couple of WR's will be off the board quickly. Kenny Phillips would've been reach but he would've filled a huge need and made an impact this year. No way he's on the board halfway through the second round.
All this being said, if the Eagles manage to parlay these picks into Roy Williams, Boldin, Ocho Stinko (shudders uncontrollably) or some other real WR it's all good.
#19 Overall (Acquired from Philadelphia for their 2008 2nd and 4th round picks and their 2009 1st round pick)
Jeff Otah (OT) Pitt
Great draft for the Panthers. They paid through the nose to get Otah but he'll team with Jordan Gross to give the Panthers their much needed bookend tackles. Stewart will team with DeAngelo Williams to give the Panthers back their running game they've been sorely missing. Second best draft next to the Chiefs thus far.
Poor Philadelphia. Seriously. Knowing the Eagles they'll use both of their 2nd round picks on a kicker and a punter just to torture those fans. Otah would have been a pretty good fit and value. It was a touch high for Devin Thomas but a WR is gonna go at some point and then a little run will begin and the best couple of WR's will be off the board quickly. Kenny Phillips would've been reach but he would've filled a huge need and made an impact this year. No way he's on the board halfway through the second round.
All this being said, if the Eagles manage to parlay these picks into Roy Williams, Boldin, Ocho Stinko (shudders uncontrollably) or some other real WR it's all good.
Joe Flacco (Delaware) #18 To The Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
#18 Overall (Acquired from Houston for 2008 picks #26, a 3rd rounder and a 6th rounder)
Joe Flacco (QB) Delaware
I really thought this would be Chad Henne. I like Brohm, Flacco, Henne in that order. Flacco reminds me a ton of Ben Roethlisberger who faced similar questions because he played in the MAC against some pretty nondescript teams. Boller should start this year and let Flacco have a red-shirt (Carson Palmer)rookie season. Look for the Ravens to target a CB or OT early in round 2.
#18 Overall (Acquired from Houston for 2008 picks #26, a 3rd rounder and a 6th rounder)
Joe Flacco (QB) Delaware
I really thought this would be Chad Henne. I like Brohm, Flacco, Henne in that order. Flacco reminds me a ton of Ben Roethlisberger who faced similar questions because he played in the MAC against some pretty nondescript teams. Boller should start this year and let Flacco have a red-shirt (Carson Palmer)rookie season. Look for the Ravens to target a CB or OT early in round 2.
Gosder Cherilus (Boston College) #17 To The Lions
Detroit Lions
#17 Overall (Acquired from Kansas City)
Gosder Cherilus (OT) Boston College
The Lions resisted the urge to be the first team to draft a WR this year. So thank your various gods. They also got value with a offensive lineman that they desperately needed and even picked up an extra 5th rounder while they were at it. They could've really used a corner so don't count them out of the Lito Sheppard sweepstakes even though Detroit runs a Tampa 2.
#17 Overall (Acquired from Kansas City)
Gosder Cherilus (OT) Boston College
The Lions resisted the urge to be the first team to draft a WR this year. So thank your various gods. They also got value with a offensive lineman that they desperately needed and even picked up an extra 5th rounder while they were at it. They could've really used a corner so don't count them out of the Lito Sheppard sweepstakes even though Detroit runs a Tampa 2.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Tennessee State) #16 To The Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals
#16 Overall
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB) Tennessee State
This was the way to go for the Cardinals. They were dying for a corner. Rodgers-Cromartie was flying up draft boards just a week or two ago so this is a good value at #16. If he can reach his potential Rodgers-Cromartie will be the best CB to come out of this draft. Arizona can get a RB in rounds 2 or 3, no sweat.
#16 Overall
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB) Tennessee State
This was the way to go for the Cardinals. They were dying for a corner. Rodgers-Cromartie was flying up draft boards just a week or two ago so this is a good value at #16. If he can reach his potential Rodgers-Cromartie will be the best CB to come out of this draft. Arizona can get a RB in rounds 2 or 3, no sweat.
Branden Albert (Virginia) #15 To The Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs
#15 Overall (Acquired from Detroit for 2008 picks #17 a 3rd and a 5th rounder. Detroit also sends Kansas City their 2008 3rd round pick)
Branden Albert (OT/OG) Virginia
Absolute money. The Chiefs moved up faster than the Eagles could to snatch Albert. Look for the Eagles to make a major push to trade Lito Sheppard/trade for a WR in the next 30 minutes. Complete home run for the Chiefs, they got their left tackle for the next 10 years. Or at worst a Pro Bowl guard (think Shawn Andrews).
#15 Overall (Acquired from Detroit for 2008 picks #17 a 3rd and a 5th rounder. Detroit also sends Kansas City their 2008 3rd round pick)
Branden Albert (OT/OG) Virginia
Absolute money. The Chiefs moved up faster than the Eagles could to snatch Albert. Look for the Eagles to make a major push to trade Lito Sheppard/trade for a WR in the next 30 minutes. Complete home run for the Chiefs, they got their left tackle for the next 10 years. Or at worst a Pro Bowl guard (think Shawn Andrews).
Chris Williams (Vanderbilt) #14 To The Bears
Chicago Bears
#14 Overall
Chris Williams (OT) Vanderbilt
Another pretty obvious pick. There was almost no way the Bears would go any direction other than the o-line. I would've picked Albert or Otah first but Williams might be the best pure LT prospect out of the 3. But given the Bears cold-weather late-season games and Lovie Smith's state preference for running the ball I'm really surprised that Otah wasn't the pick here. It's a fight between the Eagles (#19) the Chiefs (#17) and Houston (#18) for whichever OL the Lions don't pick. Or both if the Lions screw up and reach for Mendenhall.
#14 Overall
Chris Williams (OT) Vanderbilt
Another pretty obvious pick. There was almost no way the Bears would go any direction other than the o-line. I would've picked Albert or Otah first but Williams might be the best pure LT prospect out of the 3. But given the Bears cold-weather late-season games and Lovie Smith's state preference for running the ball I'm really surprised that Otah wasn't the pick here. It's a fight between the Eagles (#19) the Chiefs (#17) and Houston (#18) for whichever OL the Lions don't pick. Or both if the Lions screw up and reach for Mendenhall.
Jonathan Stewart (Oregon) #13 To The Panthers
Carolina Panthers
#13 Overall
Jonathan Stewart (RB) Oregon
2nd first round pick used on a RB in the last 3 drafts by the Panthers. I know everybody has 2 good running backs not but come on? At #13 overall you're drafting a timeshare guy? I really like Stewart but not this early to the Panthers. They could've drafted a much need OL prospect and still copped Ray Rice or somebody similar in round 2 or 3.
#13 Overall
Jonathan Stewart (RB) Oregon
2nd first round pick used on a RB in the last 3 drafts by the Panthers. I know everybody has 2 good running backs not but come on? At #13 overall you're drafting a timeshare guy? I really like Stewart but not this early to the Panthers. They could've drafted a much need OL prospect and still copped Ray Rice or somebody similar in round 2 or 3.
Ryan Clady (Boise State) #12 To Denver
Denver Broncos
#12 Overall
Ryan Clady (OT) Boise State
Everybody knew an OT was coming here. Clady fits their system better than Otah or Albert and Williams is falling because of injury concerns. This might trigger the run on OT's. I would expect the last one to be gone to Philadelphia at #19 at the absolute latest.
#12 Overall
Ryan Clady (OT) Boise State
Everybody knew an OT was coming here. Clady fits their system better than Otah or Albert and Williams is falling because of injury concerns. This might trigger the run on OT's. I would expect the last one to be gone to Philadelphia at #19 at the absolute latest.
Leodis McKelvin (Troy) #11 To The Bills
Buffalo Bills
#11 Overall
Leodis McKelvin (CB) Troy
Good solid pick. The Bills only have maybe 2 real CB's on their roster. WR would've been the sexy pick but can you really take a guy you want to be a complimentary (#2) receiver with the 11th overall pick in the draft? Any WR at #11 was a reach. Good job by the Bills. For the record I like McKelvin over Rodgers-Cromartie.
#11 Overall
Leodis McKelvin (CB) Troy
Good solid pick. The Bills only have maybe 2 real CB's on their roster. WR would've been the sexy pick but can you really take a guy you want to be a complimentary (#2) receiver with the 11th overall pick in the draft? Any WR at #11 was a reach. Good job by the Bills. For the record I like McKelvin over Rodgers-Cromartie.
Jerod Mayo (Tennessee) #10 To The Patriots
New England Patriots
#10 Overall (Acquired from New Orleans)
Jerod Mayo (ILB/OLB) Tennessee
Knowing the Patriots they must have had Mayo higher than Rivers on their board. When they traded out of #7 they knew that Sedrick Ellis was going there which meant the Bengals would take Keith Rivers. Or the Patriots played it a little too cute for once. That won't stop Berman from blowing the whole organization on national TV. I like Mayo but his seems like a bit of a reach. Although the Word on the Web is that Mayo (along with Derrick Harvey) was the object of a Detroit Lions man-crush. They'll be taking an OT or RB now. The Patriots only pressing need was at CB but they might re-sign Ty Law and they don't place a ton of value in the CB position within their system. Their next biggest need was a versatile, YOUNG linebacker. Mayo was the best one on the board, but I'm not sure he was the highest rated overall player available on the Patriots draft board at that point.
#10 Overall (Acquired from New Orleans)
Jerod Mayo (ILB/OLB) Tennessee
Knowing the Patriots they must have had Mayo higher than Rivers on their board. When they traded out of #7 they knew that Sedrick Ellis was going there which meant the Bengals would take Keith Rivers. Or the Patriots played it a little too cute for once. That won't stop Berman from blowing the whole organization on national TV. I like Mayo but his seems like a bit of a reach. Although the Word on the Web is that Mayo (along with Derrick Harvey) was the object of a Detroit Lions man-crush. They'll be taking an OT or RB now. The Patriots only pressing need was at CB but they might re-sign Ty Law and they don't place a ton of value in the CB position within their system. Their next biggest need was a versatile, YOUNG linebacker. Mayo was the best one on the board, but I'm not sure he was the highest rated overall player available on the Patriots draft board at that point.
Keith Rivers (USC) #9 To The Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals
#9 Overall
Keith Rivers (OLB/MLB) USC
Slam dunk. Dorsey or Ellis would've been nicer but Rivers was a top-10 talent. If Odell Thurman can stay off the sauce this actually gives the Bengals 2 real NFL linebackers. And Dhani Jones' worthless, air-guitar playing ass. Anyway the Bengals have gone CB with their last two first rounders. OT was the only other way the Bengals could've gone but it's a deep draft for o-linemen, not so much so for elite linebackers. Rivers just seems like a Marvin Lewis guy. Cross your fingers Marvin and hope for Ray Lewis Jr. And trade Chad Johnson. Please. I'm already sick of this shit.
#9 Overall
Keith Rivers (OLB/MLB) USC
Slam dunk. Dorsey or Ellis would've been nicer but Rivers was a top-10 talent. If Odell Thurman can stay off the sauce this actually gives the Bengals 2 real NFL linebackers. And Dhani Jones' worthless, air-guitar playing ass. Anyway the Bengals have gone CB with their last two first rounders. OT was the only other way the Bengals could've gone but it's a deep draft for o-linemen, not so much so for elite linebackers. Rivers just seems like a Marvin Lewis guy. Cross your fingers Marvin and hope for Ray Lewis Jr. And trade Chad Johnson. Please. I'm already sick of this shit.
Derrick Harvey (Florida) #8 To The Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars
#8 Overall (Acquired from Baltimore for 2008 picks #26, #71, #89 and an additional 4th round pick)
Derrick Harvey (DE) Florida
Jacksonville really moved up for this pick. I think they might have been better served getting to New England's spot to take Sedrick Ellis to replace Stroud in the middle of their defensive line Derrick Harvey seems to have the tools but this seems like a reach. Although outside of Gholston and Long there really wasn't another consensus top DE. But considering how pissed off Mel Kiper Jr is about this I think it might turn out to be OK for the Jags.
Baltimore traded back to select Chad Henne. Mark that down. The Pats didn't want to go down to 26 because they'd miss the top corners, Buffalo would miss Devin Thomas and everybody else in the 8-16 range doesn't want to be on the end of the run on OT's when it starts in a pick or two. So I guess this is why the Jags had to trade up for this guy. Word on the Web was the both the Panthers and the Lions had man-crushes on Harvey.
#8 Overall (Acquired from Baltimore for 2008 picks #26, #71, #89 and an additional 4th round pick)
Derrick Harvey (DE) Florida
Jacksonville really moved up for this pick. I think they might have been better served getting to New England's spot to take Sedrick Ellis to replace Stroud in the middle of their defensive line Derrick Harvey seems to have the tools but this seems like a reach. Although outside of Gholston and Long there really wasn't another consensus top DE. But considering how pissed off Mel Kiper Jr is about this I think it might turn out to be OK for the Jags.
Baltimore traded back to select Chad Henne. Mark that down. The Pats didn't want to go down to 26 because they'd miss the top corners, Buffalo would miss Devin Thomas and everybody else in the 8-16 range doesn't want to be on the end of the run on OT's when it starts in a pick or two. So I guess this is why the Jags had to trade up for this guy. Word on the Web was the both the Panthers and the Lions had man-crushes on Harvey.
Sedrick Ellis (USC) #7 To The Saints
New Orleans Saints
#7 Overall (Acquired From New England for 2008 picks #10 and a 3rd Rounder) (Saints get a 2008 5th Rounder from the Patriot as well)
Sedrick Ellis (DT) USC
Great pick by the Saints. I think that they could've used a CB but there were only 2 truly elite DT's available this year and Ellis was the only one left. The Saints D really needed a guy like Ellis so this is a slam dunk. And moving up to #7 had to be cheaper than moving up further for Dorsey. I mean cheaper both in the number of picks you would have to trade and the amount of money you would have to pay the player.
#7 Overall (Acquired From New England for 2008 picks #10 and a 3rd Rounder) (Saints get a 2008 5th Rounder from the Patriot as well)
Sedrick Ellis (DT) USC
Great pick by the Saints. I think that they could've used a CB but there were only 2 truly elite DT's available this year and Ellis was the only one left. The Saints D really needed a guy like Ellis so this is a slam dunk. And moving up to #7 had to be cheaper than moving up further for Dorsey. I mean cheaper both in the number of picks you would have to trade and the amount of money you would have to pay the player.
Vernon Gholston (Ohio State) #6 To The Jets
New York Jets
#6 Overall
Vernon Gholston (DE/OLB) Ohio State
I started writing this before the Jets actually picked him. They knew the Patriots would want Gholston and they just sat on the clock rubbing it in to the Patriots. I love it when teams genuinely hate each other like this. As far as the pick goes it helps a great deal that the Jets run a 3-4 scheme. That will play to Gholston's strengths. I don't think he's Merriman/Ware good but he's an athletic freak of nature. If he improves his technique and gets his motor up he could be a Pro Bowl pass-rusher.
Given all the money the Jets have dumped into their offensive line they couldn't go that direction. They moved up in Round 1 to draft a corner last year. They traded for DT Kris Jenkins and gave him a mega-deal. There were no other RB's or any WR's worth looking at this high. Sedric Ellis really doesn't fit in a 3-4 and the Jets aren't that high on any of the other QB options. I think they had to go Gholston or Keith Rivers (USC) here.
#6 Overall
Vernon Gholston (DE/OLB) Ohio State
I started writing this before the Jets actually picked him. They knew the Patriots would want Gholston and they just sat on the clock rubbing it in to the Patriots. I love it when teams genuinely hate each other like this. As far as the pick goes it helps a great deal that the Jets run a 3-4 scheme. That will play to Gholston's strengths. I don't think he's Merriman/Ware good but he's an athletic freak of nature. If he improves his technique and gets his motor up he could be a Pro Bowl pass-rusher.
Given all the money the Jets have dumped into their offensive line they couldn't go that direction. They moved up in Round 1 to draft a corner last year. They traded for DT Kris Jenkins and gave him a mega-deal. There were no other RB's or any WR's worth looking at this high. Sedric Ellis really doesn't fit in a 3-4 and the Jets aren't that high on any of the other QB options. I think they had to go Gholston or Keith Rivers (USC) here.
Glenn Dorsey (LSU) #5 To The Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs
#5 Overall
Glenn Dorsey (DT) LSU
Home run. These first few picks could not have gone better for the Chiefs. Jake Long dropping would have been nice but grabbing Dorsey here is a huge steal. His presence will solve a long-standing problem on the interior of the Chiefs defensive line. They have last years #1 Tamba Hali to man one of the DE spots and with their wealth of picks in this draft the Chiefs can find somebody to work opposite of Hali later this afternoon.
Given the way this draft is shaking out it sure looks like one of the premier OT's will fall to the Chiefs at #17. That Jared Allen trade is looking even more brilliant right now. I know Allen is great but great DT's are proving harder than DE's to find these days. To get Dorsey and one of the top OL prospects would make this an A+ DAY ONE of the draft for the Chiefs. Those 2 picks would just be that good.
#5 Overall
Glenn Dorsey (DT) LSU
Home run. These first few picks could not have gone better for the Chiefs. Jake Long dropping would have been nice but grabbing Dorsey here is a huge steal. His presence will solve a long-standing problem on the interior of the Chiefs defensive line. They have last years #1 Tamba Hali to man one of the DE spots and with their wealth of picks in this draft the Chiefs can find somebody to work opposite of Hali later this afternoon.
Given the way this draft is shaking out it sure looks like one of the premier OT's will fall to the Chiefs at #17. That Jared Allen trade is looking even more brilliant right now. I know Allen is great but great DT's are proving harder than DE's to find these days. To get Dorsey and one of the top OL prospects would make this an A+ DAY ONE of the draft for the Chiefs. Those 2 picks would just be that good.
Darren McFadden (Arkansas) #4 To The Raiders
Oakland Raiders
#4 Overall
Darren McFadden (RB) Arkansas
And the consensus #1 talent in the draft is finally off the board. Say goodnight LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes. McFadden, Fargas and Michael Bush make for a great backfield. If McFadden and Bush reach their potential and Fargas picks up where he left out last year this will go a long way towards insulating Russell in his first year as a starter. Glenn Dorsey seems like he would fill a bigger need but Al Davis has vision of Adrian Peterson dancing in his head when he sees McFadden. And this also prevents Jerry Jones or the Jets from stealing McFadden. We like that.
#4 Overall
Darren McFadden (RB) Arkansas
And the consensus #1 talent in the draft is finally off the board. Say goodnight LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes. McFadden, Fargas and Michael Bush make for a great backfield. If McFadden and Bush reach their potential and Fargas picks up where he left out last year this will go a long way towards insulating Russell in his first year as a starter. Glenn Dorsey seems like he would fill a bigger need but Al Davis has vision of Adrian Peterson dancing in his head when he sees McFadden. And this also prevents Jerry Jones or the Jets from stealing McFadden. We like that.
Matt Ryan (Boston College) #3 To The Falcons
Atlanta Falcons
#3 Overall
Matt Ryan (QB) Boston College
The Falcons took their shot here. I would've taken Dorsey and packaged a couple second rounders to nab Brohm or Flacco at the end of Round 1. If they're right about Ryan this is a helluva pick. If they're wrong the Falcons will be rebuilding for at least another 5 years. You cannot whiff on one of these first round QB's, especially this high in the draft. If Dorsey blows up Ryan starts slow, look out. Just for the record I'd rather have McFadden than Michael Turner but it's a bit late for that isn't it.
#3 Overall
Matt Ryan (QB) Boston College
The Falcons took their shot here. I would've taken Dorsey and packaged a couple second rounders to nab Brohm or Flacco at the end of Round 1. If they're right about Ryan this is a helluva pick. If they're wrong the Falcons will be rebuilding for at least another 5 years. You cannot whiff on one of these first round QB's, especially this high in the draft. If Dorsey blows up Ryan starts slow, look out. Just for the record I'd rather have McFadden than Michael Turner but it's a bit late for that isn't it.
Chris Long (Virginia) #2 To The Rams
St Louis Rams
#2 Overall
Chris Long (DE) Virginia
Not a bad pick, I don't think (barring injuries) there's anyway Chris Long ends up being a bust. With that being said I still would've taken Glenn Dorsey. He might have some medical red flags but when he's on he's an absolute monster. Chris Long will rack up a bunch of tackles from the end spot but I think Dorsey's presence inside would generate a better pass rush than Long on the outside. If the Rams ran a 3-4 I would've liked Long over Dorsey.
#2 Overall
Chris Long (DE) Virginia
Not a bad pick, I don't think (barring injuries) there's anyway Chris Long ends up being a bust. With that being said I still would've taken Glenn Dorsey. He might have some medical red flags but when he's on he's an absolute monster. Chris Long will rack up a bunch of tackles from the end spot but I think Dorsey's presence inside would generate a better pass rush than Long on the outside. If the Rams ran a 3-4 I would've liked Long over Dorsey.
Jake Long (Michigan) #1 To The Dolphins
Miami Dolphins
#1 Overall
Jake Long (OT) Michigan
What this pick didn't surprise you? He signed before the draft for less guaranteed money than last years #1 overall pick. Best-case scenario he's a Hall Of Fame left tackle. Worst-case scenario he's a Pro Bowl right tackle. That makes him the pick here for me if I'm the Dolphins. I think this is the right pick.
#1 Overall
Jake Long (OT) Michigan
What this pick didn't surprise you? He signed before the draft for less guaranteed money than last years #1 overall pick. Best-case scenario he's a Hall Of Fame left tackle. Worst-case scenario he's a Pro Bowl right tackle. That makes him the pick here for me if I'm the Dolphins. I think this is the right pick.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
NFL Mock Drafts
The title link leads to the largest collection of current NFL 2008 Mock Draft links that I could find. Props to HailRedskins for the work and Google for the search. Tough job isn't it? It's definitely good work if you can get it. Anyway, back to work, or, whatever.
NFL MOCK DRAFTS
-99% of the mock drafts you see are for the fans. Writers need something to write about and fans need hope. Don't get me wrong, the writers are trying to get the picks correct so they look like they have some clue what they are talking about.
-Good luck drawing up an accurate mock draft anytime prior to 72 hours before the draft. It's such a fluid situation the teams themselves cannot be sure of anything until the picks start to fall into place. I've seen some very accurate mock drafts posted the night before the draft so if you're in one of those "Pick the draft picks" contests wait until the last minute to fill out your entry.
-NFL teams will actually look at some mock drafts in the days leading up to the draft. Will these teams put a great deal of stock into these projections? Probably not but they'll take any information they can get and there are things that you can learn from mocks.
-If about 75-100% of major mock drafts have the same player going to the same team at the same spot, it's probably going to happen. The team might try to move up or down and acquire the same player but where there's this much smoke there's a big ass fire.
-Pay attention to how certain teams historically run their first rounds. The Patriots almost always trade down, as do the Browns. Jerry Jones wheels and deals a ton. The Eagles draft linemen, Jon Gruden loves offense and Al Davis loves speed. Just a few examples but almost every team/GM has a pattern they stick to.
-Team needs do matter. Considering the number of teams that swear that they take the best player available regardless of position, few teams actually abide by the practice. You're gonna pay a first-rounder a ton of money and you need him to make an impact immediately both to get better on the field and appease the fans of any of the 31 teams who are not coming off of a Super Bowl victory.
-QB's are falling. So many teams already have made big investments in quarterbacks so there is a lot of hesitation to spend big money and use a high draft pick on one. So be ready for a few teams to attempt to trade back into the end of the first round for Henne, Flacco and Brohm. (Brohm might go earlier and supposedly some team is in love with Henne.)
-RB's are the wild-cards. There always seems to be a bunch of good ones at the front of the draft but the backs chosen later seem to do almost as well lately. Busts like Cedric Benson don't help the stigmata either.
-Plan on at least 4 trades going down in the first round, more likely 6-7. There will be a ton of action in the late-middle to the end of the first round. A team or two may try to trade up for Ryan or McFadden but everybody else will be going in the other direction.
-Don't believe a word a general manager says. Unless it's "we've agreed to a contract with Jake Long to make him the number 1 selection in this year's NFL Draft".
-Mel Kiper Jr will hit about 4 home runs on his last mock draft. He usually gets about 4 teams' picks correct that almost nobody else gets. Sometimes he lets the cat out of th bag early like connecting Brendan Albert to the Chiefs at #5 this year.
-The shortening of the rounds will not reduce the amount of activity one bit. I'm guessing that it actually increases the activity because teams will act first more rather than wait for their phone to ring.
-If you have the option to do so watch the NFL Network's draft coverage. I think that you'll find it more enjoyable than ESPN's.
Well there's some insight into the crazy world of mock drafts. Of course I will be publishing my own mock draft but not until tonight at the earliest, most likely more like Friday afternoon.
NFL MOCK DRAFTS
-99% of the mock drafts you see are for the fans. Writers need something to write about and fans need hope. Don't get me wrong, the writers are trying to get the picks correct so they look like they have some clue what they are talking about.
-Good luck drawing up an accurate mock draft anytime prior to 72 hours before the draft. It's such a fluid situation the teams themselves cannot be sure of anything until the picks start to fall into place. I've seen some very accurate mock drafts posted the night before the draft so if you're in one of those "Pick the draft picks" contests wait until the last minute to fill out your entry.
-NFL teams will actually look at some mock drafts in the days leading up to the draft. Will these teams put a great deal of stock into these projections? Probably not but they'll take any information they can get and there are things that you can learn from mocks.
-If about 75-100% of major mock drafts have the same player going to the same team at the same spot, it's probably going to happen. The team might try to move up or down and acquire the same player but where there's this much smoke there's a big ass fire.
-Pay attention to how certain teams historically run their first rounds. The Patriots almost always trade down, as do the Browns. Jerry Jones wheels and deals a ton. The Eagles draft linemen, Jon Gruden loves offense and Al Davis loves speed. Just a few examples but almost every team/GM has a pattern they stick to.
-Team needs do matter. Considering the number of teams that swear that they take the best player available regardless of position, few teams actually abide by the practice. You're gonna pay a first-rounder a ton of money and you need him to make an impact immediately both to get better on the field and appease the fans of any of the 31 teams who are not coming off of a Super Bowl victory.
-QB's are falling. So many teams already have made big investments in quarterbacks so there is a lot of hesitation to spend big money and use a high draft pick on one. So be ready for a few teams to attempt to trade back into the end of the first round for Henne, Flacco and Brohm. (Brohm might go earlier and supposedly some team is in love with Henne.)
-RB's are the wild-cards. There always seems to be a bunch of good ones at the front of the draft but the backs chosen later seem to do almost as well lately. Busts like Cedric Benson don't help the stigmata either.
-Plan on at least 4 trades going down in the first round, more likely 6-7. There will be a ton of action in the late-middle to the end of the first round. A team or two may try to trade up for Ryan or McFadden but everybody else will be going in the other direction.
-Don't believe a word a general manager says. Unless it's "we've agreed to a contract with Jake Long to make him the number 1 selection in this year's NFL Draft".
-Mel Kiper Jr will hit about 4 home runs on his last mock draft. He usually gets about 4 teams' picks correct that almost nobody else gets. Sometimes he lets the cat out of th bag early like connecting Brendan Albert to the Chiefs at #5 this year.
-The shortening of the rounds will not reduce the amount of activity one bit. I'm guessing that it actually increases the activity because teams will act first more rather than wait for their phone to ring.
-If you have the option to do so watch the NFL Network's draft coverage. I think that you'll find it more enjoyable than ESPN's.
Well there's some insight into the crazy world of mock drafts. Of course I will be publishing my own mock draft but not until tonight at the earliest, most likely more like Friday afternoon.
Playoffs?
Anyway were back. Seriously, we were right over there over there, where were you? Anyway, here's the Official NBA Playoff Predictions.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Round 1
Boston over Atlanta (In 4)
Cleveland over Washington (In 6)
Orlando over Toronto (In 5)
Detroit over Philadelphia (In 6)
Round 2
Boston over Cleveland (In 5)
Detroit over Orlando (In 7)
Round 3
Boston over Detroit (In 4)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Round 1
Lakers over Nuggets (In 5)
Jazz over Rockets (In 4)
Suns over Spurs (In 7)
Hornets over Mavericks (In 7)
Round 2
Jazz over Lakers (In 7)
Suns over Hornets (In 7)
Round 3
Suns over Jazz (In 7)
NBA FINALS
Boston over Suns (In 4)
Well there you have it. It's not how my heart wanted to pick but it's how my handicapping brain wanted it. I know this is a late post but my bracket has been on my door since last Monday.
And yes I did choose to hate on the Celtics in the pre-season and most of the regular season. But they are way better than any other team in the East and they shouldn't have to kill themselves to get to the Finals. Whoever comes out of the West is gonna be fatigued and beat up. Good luck beating a fresh Celtics team. If the Celtics get stretched for a couple of series and the West champs sweep a round or two it could be a whole different ballgame.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Round 1
Boston over Atlanta (In 4)
Cleveland over Washington (In 6)
Orlando over Toronto (In 5)
Detroit over Philadelphia (In 6)
Round 2
Boston over Cleveland (In 5)
Detroit over Orlando (In 7)
Round 3
Boston over Detroit (In 4)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Round 1
Lakers over Nuggets (In 5)
Jazz over Rockets (In 4)
Suns over Spurs (In 7)
Hornets over Mavericks (In 7)
Round 2
Jazz over Lakers (In 7)
Suns over Hornets (In 7)
Round 3
Suns over Jazz (In 7)
NBA FINALS
Boston over Suns (In 4)
Well there you have it. It's not how my heart wanted to pick but it's how my handicapping brain wanted it. I know this is a late post but my bracket has been on my door since last Monday.
And yes I did choose to hate on the Celtics in the pre-season and most of the regular season. But they are way better than any other team in the East and they shouldn't have to kill themselves to get to the Finals. Whoever comes out of the West is gonna be fatigued and beat up. Good luck beating a fresh Celtics team. If the Celtics get stretched for a couple of series and the West champs sweep a round or two it could be a whole different ballgame.
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