Wednesday, March 4, 2009

So What Does It All Mean?

"Kurt Warner re-upped, Ray Lewis re-upped, now who got a problem with dough?"

It appears Ray Lewis got about $7 million per year with a good amount guaranteed. That's not super-dough, but it's large. But this deal was a forgone conclusion. Linebackers not named Ray Lewis (or Terrell Suggs these days) have to leave Baltimore to get paid. Ray Lewis gets paid to stay. Lewis was quoted as saying that he would sign the deal that paid him the most money, regardless of who offered it. So I take that to mean that Baltimore offered more than any other team. There was a rumor that the Jets were interested but Lewis wanted insane money. But hey, rumors are rumors and Ray Lewis is a Raven.

I decided to compare the Brian Dawkins situation to the Ray Lewis situation. Might not be a completely even comparison but this isn't the SAT. Both are regarded to be on the back stretch of their careers. Most didn't think either was even the best at their position on their team last year. Both are regarded as the heart and soul of their respective franchises. Both of those franchises are coming off of conference championship game losses. Both teams had enough salary cap room to retain the players. That's enough in common to make a valid comparison. So what are the differences?

  • While most regard Ray Lewis as a player in decline he's still a top-tier middle linebacker. He doesn't make as many plays sideline-to-sideline as he used to but if the d-line can keep the big guys off of him he will make plays. Dawkins made plays in the second half of the season but he struggles mightily in coverage these days. The Eagles have really struggled defending against tight ends the past couple of seasons. That used to be a Dawkins job. Eagles fans will remember how tightly he used to play a young Jeremy Shockey.
  • Both franchises made offers to the players before free agency opened. Lewis could not find other offers and Dawkins could.
  • Both franchises talked about how much the players meant to their respective franchises and how important it was to retain these players. This came from owners, coaches and teammates. The Ravens made an aggressive offer to Lewis that was apparently very close to market value. The Eagles made Dawkins a decent offer but they did not offer the type of money in the first two years that the Broncos did. So on some level Lewis still knew he was wanted, Dawkins probably wasn't so sure based on the disparity between offers.
Not a perfect analysis but it is what it is. If I had to guess I would say that next season Lewis plays just about as well as he did this season, barring injury. I'm not so sure about Dawkins in the AFC West. Why? Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Zack Miller. Plus Lewis is still surrounded by a great deal of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Outside of Dawkins, Champ Bailey and DJ Williams how much talent does Denver have on defense?

Kurt Warner re-signed with the Cardinals. Big surprise there huh? Couple of bat hits about that real quick.
  • What were the 49er's thinking? Did they ever really think that Warner would sign with them? Maybe for top-5 QB money but why? The Niners are a re-building franchise that needs a future, not a Band-Aid. Outside of Frank Gore they don't really have much at the skill positions on offense. Plus, while Warner has proved to be a complete stud in certain situations, he's struggled mightily in others. He fits well in the controlled-climate stadium in the desert. How good would he be if he had to play most of his games truly outside?
  • What does this mean for Anquan Boldin. My first instinct is that he's staying. My second instinct is that he's not going to get paid this year and that might cause some problems. I think Warner has some insight into this, his free agent status was the only thing that really gave him any leverage in the situation. Boldin is staying. My best guess is that the Cardinals re-work his deal with a massive bonus due after the season. At that point they can pay him or trade him. And Boldin knows that he's in a good situation, with a good QB with a big payday guaranteed (except for injury) on the horizon. Drew Rosenhaus won't be happy, but when is he ever?
  • Where does Kurt Warner rank in fantasy football next season? It's a bit early to ask but I'm skeptical. I stole Warner in almost every league I was in last year and was loving it. But he won't sneak up on anybody this year and most likely will be in the top 5 QB's off the board. He just doesn't have a history of staying healthy and the Cardinals really need something at TE and a consistent running game. I still love Boldin and Fitzgerald but I'm wary about Warner. I would rather have (in no particular order): Peyton, Brees, Cutler, Rivers, Romo, Rodgers and Brady. So I guess I have Warner about 8th. I have him and McNabb about even.

No comments: