The Cutler Trade (A Historical Perspective)

Cutler Trade
The Bears gave up: (full details here)
2009 1st round pick
2009 3rd round pick
2010 1st round pick
Kyle Orton

*Bears receive Jay Cutler and a 2009 5th round pick

Looks like a lot huh? Let's compare this trade to some other large trades in the last couple of decades.

Herschel Walker Trade
The Vikings gave up: (full details here)
3 1st round picks
3 2nd round picks
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick
3 players

*Vikings receive Herschel Walker, 2 3rd round picks, 1 5th round pick, 1 10th round pick

Some of these picks were conditions, check out the link for the full breakdown. Overall this was a miserable failure for the Vikings. The Cowboys literally turned this haul of draft picks and players into a dynasty. History is shown that you can rebuild through the draft. So the more quality picks you have, the faster you can rebuild. Positional value is a bit different these days, I don't know if a team could get 2 first round picks in exchange for a running back today. Probably for Peterson. But quarterbacks are so highly valued. (Looking at the Cutler trade I would I guess that the assigned value for Kyle Orton was a 2nd round pick. That's not a throw in.) If Walker was in his prime today my guess is you could get a 1st and a 3rd for him. So comparatively, the Cutler trade looks like a bank robbery with a clean getaway.

The Jon Gruden Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks
2 2nd round draft picks
Cash (rumored to be several million dollars)

*Bucs receive coach Jon Gruden

Yeah I know Gruden was a coach, but it's the actual trade I'm looking at. The Bucs claim they would do this trade again 100% of the time because they won the Super Bowl. How do they know that they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl anyway with Tony Dungy? I guess you could argue that they might have lost to Gruden in the Super Bowl if he coached the Raiders. But the NFC that year was basically just the Eagles and Bucs. But they did get Gruden and did win the Super Bowl so it the trade worked, they won the battle. But they ultimately lost the war because they were never able to add high-end young talent to their nucleus. They had an elite defense for years but could never get over the top after that Super Bowl. No one will ever pay this much for a coach ever again. I just can't see it happening. There is a reason it seems like the Bucs got old and fell apart all at once and this trade (and the Keyshawn trade) are at the heart of that reason. I like the Cutler deal better than this trade. Plus there will be some great coaches on the open market next year, there won't be any 25 year old starting quarterbacks who've been to the Pro Bowl already.

The Keyshawn Johnson Trade
The Bucs gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round draft picks

*Bucs receive Keyshawn Johnson

I could basically say the same things about the Johnson trade as I did about the Gruden trade. At the time the Bucs had a good-to-great defense and their offense have Dunn/Alstott and nothing. I guess their thinking was "if we can't get a good QB let's at least get a good WR". So they went out and got Keyshawn. Did Keyshawn play a key role in winning the Super Bowl? Yes he did. Looking back on it, I like this trade more than the Gruden trade. At least Keyshawn was later traded for Joey Galloway who gave the Bucs a couple of good years. These days Anquan Boldin is a good comparison for Keyshawn's value and it looks like Boldin would cost a 1st round pick and maybe a player in trade. So the Bucs overpaid for Keyshawn a bit, but they did need him. I like the Cutler trade a bit more than this, but by itself was a pretty good trade. When coupled with the Gruden trade it completely mortgaged the Bucs' future.

The Joey Galloway Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
2 1st round picks

*Cowboys receive Joey Galloway

This is a classic Jerry Jones swinging for the fences trade. 2 first rounders was way too much to give up for Galloway and it never really worked out for the Cowboys. Maybe Jones felt bad about getting such a haul for Walker from the Vikings. No matter what way you cut it, the Cutler trade looks like a home run compared to this deal.

The Roy Williams Trade
The Cowboys gave up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 6th round pick

*Cowboys receive Roy Williams and a 7th round pick

Too early to really evaluate this deal. This is only 1 first rounder less than the Cutler deal. Which makes it quite pricey for a WR deal in this era. This is probably the baseline deal for any other WR deals this year. Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin, I'm talkin to you. Jerry Jones overpaid for two reasons. First he needed T.O. leverage. He ultimately leveraged him right out of town. Second, Jones was pretty sure that if he didn't get Williams before the trade deadline, the Eagles would get him before the draft this year. Given the fact that the Eagles have two first round picks he was probably right.

The Jared Allen Trade
The Vikings give up: (full details here)
1 1st round pick
2 3rd round picks

*Vikings receive Jared Allen and sway 6th round picks with the Chiefs

Given the value being placed on premium pass-rushers today, this was a pretty good deal. Jared Allen is one of the best in the NFL and he's squarely in his prime. I doubt you could completely replace him, even with an extra first and a couple thirds. I'd put this deal slightly ahead of the Cutler deal. Part of that is because it seems like it's working out well for the Vikings and Allen was a bit more proven when he was trade than Cutler was.

The Eli Manning Trade
The Giants gave up: (full details here)
Philip Rivers
1 1st round pick
1 3rd round pick
1 5th round pick

*Giants receive Eli Manning

Here's another deal that the team claims they'd do again 100% of the time when given the chance. Just for the record, the 1st round pick they gave up turned in Shawne Merriman, the 3rd round pick turned into a Pro Bowl kicker and the 5th round pick was traded for a guy who started at LT for the Chargers for a while. You're telling me the Giants couldn't have won the Super Bowl with Philip Rivers AND Merriman instead of Eli? Don't lie to make friends. But in a vacuum (assume I don't know who the draft picks turn into) I still don't know how much I like this trade. Rivers was every bit of the pro prospect Manning was. I like Manning and Rivers more than Kyle Orton but it's not a crazy comparison, at least between Manning and Orton. Seriously, check the stats. It looks like the Bears still gave up more for Cutler than the Giants gave up for Eli, if you grade Rivers much high than Orton. Which I would. But Cutler is at least mostly proven himself, Eli just had a last name and some college film We'll call it a draw, for now.


I've ignored other deals here obviously, I just wanted to compared deals where a large package of picks was traded for a single player. I know there have been other deals but these were more prominent in my mind when I wrote this. I wanted to avoid draft day deals but there's one deal I need to address. Okay, had to add the Eli deal. When I look at the Cutler deal compared to these other deals, I see pretty good value. Did the Bears pay out the ass for Cutler? Absolutely. Might it be worth it? Probably. I'm assuming Cutler stays mostly healthy and plays football for another 10 years. You've got to figure if Cutler could start for the Bears for 10 years he's at least worth the two first round picks. You know the Bears would blow at least two more first rounders on QB's in the next ten years if they didn't have Cutler. That alone seems to make it worth it for me. Physically, Cutler is a good fit for playing in the NFC North and he'll be embraced in Chicago so hard and so fast, he'll be quite scared.

The one thing nobody has talked about yet is Cutler's contract. He's received most of the money already due to the bonus structure of the deal. I believe he's making just over $1 million this year. For a starting QB, that's insane. I've always been of the position that if the Broncos had just offered Cutler an extension he would've taken it and it would've been all good between Cutler and the Broncos. Yet the Broncos chose not to offer an extension, nor has an extension been announced in conjunction with this trade. Given the acrimony between the Broncos franchise and Cutler it's quite possible that the Bears never spoke to Cutler before acquiring him. At the least, no substantive contract took place. Just something to watch out for in the coming weeks. I wonder if the Bears are waiting for the Giants to extend Eli? It will be interesting to see which QB signs his extension first, especially given the current economic climate and upcoming CBA talks.