Tuesday, April 22, 2008

NFL Mock Drafts

The title link leads to the largest collection of current NFL 2008 Mock Draft links that I could find. Props to HailRedskins for the work and Google for the search. Tough job isn't it? It's definitely good work if you can get it. Anyway, back to work, or, whatever.

NFL MOCK DRAFTS
-99% of the mock drafts you see are for the fans. Writers need something to write about and fans need hope. Don't get me wrong, the writers are trying to get the picks correct so they look like they have some clue what they are talking about.

-Good luck drawing up an accurate mock draft anytime prior to 72 hours before the draft. It's such a fluid situation the teams themselves cannot be sure of anything until the picks start to fall into place. I've seen some very accurate mock drafts posted the night before the draft so if you're in one of those "Pick the draft picks" contests wait until the last minute to fill out your entry.

-NFL teams will actually look at some mock drafts in the days leading up to the draft. Will these teams put a great deal of stock into these projections? Probably not but they'll take any information they can get and there are things that you can learn from mocks.

-If about 75-100% of major mock drafts have the same player going to the same team at the same spot, it's probably going to happen. The team might try to move up or down and acquire the same player but where there's this much smoke there's a big ass fire.

-Pay attention to how certain teams historically run their first rounds. The Patriots almost always trade down, as do the Browns. Jerry Jones wheels and deals a ton. The Eagles draft linemen, Jon Gruden loves offense and Al Davis loves speed. Just a few examples but almost every team/GM has a pattern they stick to.

-Team needs do matter. Considering the number of teams that swear that they take the best player available regardless of position, few teams actually abide by the practice. You're gonna pay a first-rounder a ton of money and you need him to make an impact immediately both to get better on the field and appease the fans of any of the 31 teams who are not coming off of a Super Bowl victory.

-QB's are falling. So many teams already have made big investments in quarterbacks so there is a lot of hesitation to spend big money and use a high draft pick on one. So be ready for a few teams to attempt to trade back into the end of the first round for Henne, Flacco and Brohm. (Brohm might go earlier and supposedly some team is in love with Henne.)

-RB's are the wild-cards. There always seems to be a bunch of good ones at the front of the draft but the backs chosen later seem to do almost as well lately. Busts like Cedric Benson don't help the stigmata either.

-Plan on at least 4 trades going down in the first round, more likely 6-7. There will be a ton of action in the late-middle to the end of the first round. A team or two may try to trade up for Ryan or McFadden but everybody else will be going in the other direction.

-Don't believe a word a general manager says. Unless it's "we've agreed to a contract with Jake Long to make him the number 1 selection in this year's NFL Draft".

-Mel Kiper Jr will hit about 4 home runs on his last mock draft. He usually gets about 4 teams' picks correct that almost nobody else gets. Sometimes he lets the cat out of th bag early like connecting Brendan Albert to the Chiefs at #5 this year.

-The shortening of the rounds will not reduce the amount of activity one bit. I'm guessing that it actually increases the activity because teams will act first more rather than wait for their phone to ring.

-If you have the option to do so watch the NFL Network's draft coverage. I think that you'll find it more enjoyable than ESPN's.

Well there's some insight into the crazy world of mock drafts. Of course I will be publishing my own mock draft but not until tonight at the earliest, most likely more like Friday afternoon.

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