Tuesday, August 18, 2009

The Obligatory Brett Favre Mention

Yup, Brett Favre is back. He officially signed with the Vikings today. Contract is said to be worth between $10-$12 million. Not bad for one year for an old guy. What does this really mean? People far more "qualified" then me are going kill a couple of virtual forests with all of their words on this subject. So we'll just take a quick peek at the actual implications and the fantasy implications

IN REALITY
Does this really change how you view the Vikings? Is Favre really known for his game management? The Vikings don't have any need to throw the ball all over. They just need to keep defenses honest to give AP and even Chester Taylor room to operate. If anything, Favre is turnover-prone, period. He has been for years, and why would that change?

Favre himself has questioned his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. How should that inspire confidence in anybody else? The Vikings will need Favre the most in November, December and hopefully January. We all know that Favre was hurt last season but he still completely self-destructed. You just get the feeling that he didn't want to go out like that. Who would? But will his hubris come back to haunt him and the Vikings. This season is now all about Brett Favre. Again. Is that really what the Vikings need?

At the end of the day, the Vikings are the favorite in the NFC North. They were before they signed Favre. They're the defending division champs. They won the division last year with Gus Frerotte and Tavaris Jackson. Why shouldn't they win it again? The Lions aren't a threat at this point. The Packers have a done of problems with their conversion to a 3-4 defense. The Bears have questions at every position except QB, RB and LB. The Vikings are pretty solid as a team and should be the favorite.

IN FANTASY
Visanthe Shiancoe just took a bump up. He was a borderline top-10 TE and he probably just moved into top-8 territory. Favre loves him the TE and Shiancoe looked great so far in the pre-season. Plus the Vikings have a good o-line so Shiancoe won't be asked to block more than necessary.

Bernard Berrian also should be happy. I don't know if this will necessarily increase his catches or targets but his already stellar YPC should improve as should his TD number. Leagues that award bonuses for 50+ yard TD's should take notice. Berrian is still really a WR3 but he could be a nice WR2 when the matchup is right.

Percy Harvin has already seen his fantasy stock soar. Any leagues that count return yards and scores should bump Harvin way up their boards. As the Vikings try to work Favre in and keep him fresh you could concievealby see Harvin in the backfield both as a rusher and as a "Wildcat" QB with Tavaris Jackson split out wide. Favre probably doesn't effect his value a ton but if Harvin is on the field as a third WR I have more faith in Favre finding him as the 3rd or 4th read in a play than I did in Jackson or Rosenfels.

Brett Favre himself probably won't find his way onto many of my fantasy teams. His main value will be that he's Brett Favre. Somebody will blow a mid-round pick to draft him as their QB1. That will allow a better QB to drop lower than he should, and you should be ready to take advantage. As for Favre, he's a decent matchup play and just an average QB2. There is a chance he starts out hot. If you have him and he does start hot, SELL HIGH. As soon as he strings two good starts together, move him. Look at how he finished last season. Is there really a reason to think that this year will be any different?

If Sidney Rice or Bobby Wade steps up and takes control as the second WR, they may end up having more value with Favre than they would've otherwise had. That still doesn't make them draftable in 10 team leagues. But in 12-team leagues or larger or even 10-team PPR leagues with deep benches they might be worth a late-round flier.

No comments: