Fantasy Football Draft Prep. Look Ma, No Names!

Look, if you want rankings and such, there are a million websites all claiming that they know who is going to be better than who. I’ve got some guesses, but anybody who can tell for a fact that he knows who scores the most points out of Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice is just lying. Nobody knows. Should you draft Arian Foster before say Shonn Greene? Absolutely. Put that’s not what we’re here for. This is draft strategy that has nothing to do with targeting specific players.

And before you complain about how long it takes to read this, think about how long it took to write it.

LEAGUE SIZE

League size is one of the first things to consider when planning for your draft. Most leagues I’ve encountered have 8, 10, 12, 14 or 20 teams. Not that there aren’t 18 team leagues or 32 team leagues.

8-TEAM LEAGUES

Seriously, grow some balls and join a real league.

If you do insist on playing in an 8-team league, your draft strategy is simple. Draft as many stud RB’s and WR’s as possible. There will be QB’s and TE’s available all year in an 8-team league. So don’t reach. Why draft Drew Brees if you can pick up Matthew Stafford or Eli Manning?

8-team leagues are strictly “superstar” affairs. There’s probably no need to draft anybody considered a “sleeper”. These leagues are nice for the very casual fantasy player because no injury is really that devastating. There are ALWAYS quality options on the waiver wire in a 8-team league.

10-TEAM LEAGUES

10-team leagues are among the most common league sizes (along with 12-team leagues). While the addition of two teams makes a 10-team league much harder than an 8-teamer, there are still always quality options available on the waiver wire.

You’re focusing solely on high-upside players in a 10-team league. Solid players with no real upside (Derrick Mason was always a poster boy for this) aren’t going to help you in a 10-team league. You want to swing for the fences as much as possible.

Don’t hesitate to make a move. One of the worst mistakes fantasy owners tend to make is over-valuing their own players. There are tons of players on the wire in a 10-team league. Don’t hold onto an Earl Bennett-type while everybody else is picking the waiver wire clean. Odds are nobody else is even going to pickup the guy you drop.

In 10-team leagues, you can usually wait on QB and TE due to the depth of those positions this season. However, should you choose to draft a QB and/or TE early, I would not bother carrying a backup. There will always be decent waiver options at QB and TE in a 10-teamer. Focus on stockpiling RB’s and WR’s with high upside on your bench, not a backup that’s only for bye week or injury purposes.

12-TEAM LEAGUES

Again, adding two teams makes the league appreciably more difficult. The waiver wire options are becoming far less plentiful as we add teams.

Now we’re getting into the level where we will start aiming for some real sleepers and whatnot. Having 12-teams will ensure that all of the top options are drafted at QB and TE. This means that QB’s and TE’s will generally be drafted earlier in 12-team leagues. Plan accordingly.

If you are in a league that allows trading, be ready to wheel in deal. Once you get to 12-teams, you will have owners with legitimate holes on their roster. This creates an environment far more conducive to trading. It’s almost impossible to trade a QB in a 10-team league, because everybody has a really good one. In a 12-team league you finally get to the point where a couple teams have starters with some questions and low-quality backups.

ADP (Average Draft Position) becomes more important. In smaller leagues you can almost feel free to take the players you want on your schedule. Now that we get into a deeper league, you need to plan in greater detail. You should get a feel of when the elite QB’s and TE’s are taken. Never get caught in the end of a run. Just because the last four guys all picked QB’s doesn’t mean that you have to. If you know you can wait and say get Matthew Stafford in Round 8, and you’re cool with that, just take another RB or WR.

In a 12-team league you can justify carrying a backup QB and/or TE if you don’t have an elite option at the position. Or if your elite starter carries above average injury risk.

14-TEAM LEAGUES

Now we’re talkin. You need to be on top of your game in a 14-team league. The waiver wire options will be scarce and owners will pounce early on anybody with some upside.

Now there is a real premium on the elite QB’s and TE’s. Not there’s not a premium on RB’s or WR’s. But in a 14-team league you will often see the elite 6 (7 or 8) QB’s be drafted in the first two rounds. So if you want an elite QB, be ready to take one early.

In a 14-team league, you can start to make some safe, boring-type picks later in your draft. Am I excited at all about Hines Ward, Derrick Mason or Ricky Williams? Not really. Should they be drafted in a 14-team league. Yep. Don’t reach for these players but they can be useful strictly as bye week fill-ins and injury replacements.

Focus on the players with the easiest path to playing time. Once you get into deeper leagues, you’re just speculating on injuries and such. Handcuff running backs behind aging, injury-prone or declining starters can turn into fantasy gold. Very rarely is going with a guy who is the 3rd or 4th RB on his own team worthwhile in fantasy.

Trading becomes even more important in a 14-team league. This is probably the smallest league size where I would consider taking the “2 players” in a 2-for-1 trade, especially early in the season. If you screw up your draft or get hammered by injuries, you need to be proactive. Don’t go shopping around all of your studs to build depth, but if you have a roster hole, do what you have to do to plug it.

20-TEAM LEAGUES

Congratulations, ya’ll (or is it y’all, I never know) are real Men. Ladies, if you play in a 20-team league, challenge your pansy boyfriend to a pissing contest.

Having a stud QB almost becomes a must in this format. Somebody is going to be stuck starting the 20th best QB. It’s a real benefit to have one of the top QB’s when you’re in a league this deep.

Drafting a stud TE is a bit less important, especially if it’s not Antonio Gates. Taking a QB and a TE in the first five (or four) rounds of a 20-team league will leave you with a big hole at RB and/or WR. Go for the QB and wait on bit on the TE. Or do the opposite. Just don’t take both early.

I’d be looking to take a QB in Round 1 or 2, then a TE in Round 8 or 9. Every other pick of mine in the first 10 rounds will be a RB or WR. I’m swinging for upside early while being content to take some “safer” less sexy options later in the draft.

You want to take shots on EVERYBODY in a league this deeper. Your barber just mentioned that the previous customer said something about Clinton Portis being signed? Pick him up. 95% of the time, you’ll just wind up cutting the guy in a week or two when nothing happens. But that other 5% of the time? That’s what wins you leagues. The bottom 3 spots or so of your roster should constantly be in flux.

Information is the key. This is the type of league that rewards the guy who gets a million text message alerts per day on NFL players. Or the guy who has a Twitter list of all the NFL beat writers he can find. You have to stay ahead of the pack in these leagues. You can’t think “oh I’ll just check the league later, I’m sure he’ll still be available.” Because guess what? Chicken butt. Actually, the guy will already be gone. That’s what smart phones are for. If you’re in a 20-team league, and iPhone or Droid should be mandatory. (If you have an iPad, you’re just too cool for me)

Enough about league size, what else ya got? Auction drafts? Auction drafts.

AUCTION DRAFTS

Rule Number 1 - SPEND ALL OF YOUR MONEY! There’s no award for paying $3 for $1 players at the end of the draft. Spend the money on the guys you want, no matter how early they are nominated for bidding.

We’re not really going to do a whole Rule Number thing, you just need to know what the one and only Rule Number 1 is.

I always have a nominating strategy. Early on, I’m throwing out players that I don’t want on my time. For instance, I would nominate Mike Vick right away. Because I certainly won’t pay what he will cost, so he won’t be on my team. I’ll throw out the Steelers D early a lot too. Then once I have met my needs at a position, that’s the position I will nominate. Say I end up with Tom Brady early. I will keep nominating QB’s until everybody has a starter or there are only cheap QB’s left. I want people spending their money on QB’s because I already have one. This way other teams are spending their money on players I have no interest in. That means more players I want are available while other teams have less money to spend. Works for me.

Once you get down to the end of the draft, you can start reaching for your “sleepers” and whatnot. Ideally at this point you have enough money to either bid $2 or $3 if necessary or all teams just have $1 bids left. Be careful about nominating players you hope to get for $1 if there are any teams out there with more than $1 bids left.

I price enforce a bit in my auctions. Price enforcing means that I feel somebody is getting too good of a deal on a player. For instance say Cedric Benson is a $12 player and the current bid is at $6 and it’s “Going Once, Going Twice…”. So I bid $7. And I might go to $9 if the other guy goes to $8. And I don’t even like Benson. But I would take him at $7 and could live with him at $9. Don’t ever price enforce to the point where you’ll be upset if you actually win the player. But don’t let guys get a huge steal if possible. Sometimes other owners are wondering why nobody else is bidding and they just don’t want to be the one to step up.

Pay close attention during your auction draft. Is there one owner who is always price enforcing? Who was the owner who battled you for Felix Jones? Write that down, he would probably be interested in trading for Jones later. Is there a guy who is just waiting and waiting with all of his money? Knowing the other owners is sometimes just as important as knowing the actual players.

FREE AGENT ACQUISITION BUDGETS (FAAB) aka BLIND BIDDING

While we’re on the auction tip, let’s cover the FAAB process. FAAB is just a weekly blind auction for all available players. Each team begins the season with the same free agent budget, usually either $100 or $1000. Each week you target any free agent you might want and you place a bid on him. Say you have $100. We’ll use an example from Week 1 last season. Ryan Grant is lost for the season and his primary backup, Brandon Jackson is a free agent. You can bid as much of that $100 as you want. You can bid it all, but then you can only make $0 bids (if allowed) the rest of the season. Or you could be say $72 and hope that’s enough. But if somebody bids more, you don’t get him. Simple enough?

I’m not a big believer in saving your FAAB budget. You can’t guarantee that a big injury or benching will happen late in the season. So when it happens, go for it. Did Brandon Jackson work out for you last year if you blew your whole FAAB budget on him? Pry not. But who about if you blew your whole FAAB budget on Mike Vick? Pry worked out pretty well didn’t it. Again, there’s no award for having remaining FAAB money at the end of the year.

Make sure you set your claim lists well. Double check the players you intend to drop. Make sure you’ve entered your bid prices correctly. Make conditional bids in case your initial bids aren’t enough to win. Most leagues only run FAAB once a week, so if you’re trying to acquire a player you need to start (usually kicker or a defense) make sure you place enough claims to ensure you have a starter for the upcoming week.

In some keeper leagues with FAAB, the FAAB price you pay for a player becomes his keeper value. If this is the case in your league, make sure you factor that in when considering how much to bid.

KEEPER LEAGUES

First some clarity. Keeper leagues are leagues where 1 or more players can be retained on a team from season-to-season. A dynasty league is a league where every player on every team is retained from season-to-season.

Keeper leagues are difficult to discuss, because each league is completely unique. So these are just some general rules that may or may not apply easily to your league. Most of the time in a keeper league, as a league member you know your league far better than any “expert” so trust your own judgement.

KNOW YOUR RULES. There is nothing more important in a keeper league. How many players can you keep and how long can you keep them for? What is the cost of keeping a player? Does that cost increase each season? If so, by how much? All of these things are things YOU MUST KNOW. No exceptions.

I play to win every season. I won’t consider a trade to solely improve myself for the future until I am mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. It’s a lot less fun than you think to have a whole team of rookies and young players. You might be a great team three years from now, but is losing for three years really worth it? This is a personal preference thing. If it’s a complete toss-up, then I’ll pry take the young guy. Say Josh Freeman instead of Eli Manning. But I’m not taking Sam Bradford over Peyton Manning, keeper or not.

Pay attention to shelf-life. QB’s can be productive for a decade, maybe longer. Most RB’s have four, maybe five good seasons in them. RB’s are more valuable from year-to-year but their value and performance can vary wildly. QB’s and WR’s tend to have more stable value. Point being? Don’t be afraid to trade a quality keeper RB while he’s still quality. If you wait until he hits the cliff, you’re not going to get anything for him. Does that mean trade AP for Mark Ingram right now? Nope. But next year? Maybe rabbit, maybe.

There is no off-season. Part of the fun of keeper and dynasty leagues is that they are open for business year round. You can make trades in April if you’d like. So pay attention and keep your head on a swivel. Especially around free agency and the NFL Draft in April.

IDP (Individual Defensive Player) LEAGUES

Much like keeper leagues, it’s very difficult to discuss IDP leagues, because they are all very different. Most IDP leagues feature defensive players in addition to the usual offensive players. There are however, leagues made up solely of defensive players. The IDP positions are as follows:

• DL (Defensive Lineman, can be a DE or DT)
• DT (Defensive Tackle)
• DE (Defensive End)
• LB (Linebacker, can be OLB or MLB)
• DB (Defensive Back, can be CB or S)
• CB (Cornerback)
• S (Safety)

You need to pay attention to your league’s rosters and scoring settings. How many points do you get for sacks, tackles and INT’s? How many defensive players do you start? How did the top-scoring IDP players in your league last year compare to the offensive players? You need to know ALL OF THESE THINGS.

Most leagues utilize a handful of IDP players mixed in with their typical offensive players. In these leagues, there’s almost no need to draft IDP’s before the very end of your draft. For instance, if your league only starts 1 DL, 2 LB and 1 DB, there’s no need to reach in the draft for an IDP. Every week there will be quality options available on the wire. Really good options. There’s no need to draft Patrick Willis in Round 7 when you can take Curtis Lofton in Round 15.

If I ever reach for an IDP, it’s for an elite DL. This is because there are by far the fewest quality fantasy options along the defensive line. But there are a few elite DL that combine high tackle totals with nice sack numbers. These are your Trent Cole’s and Jared Allen’s of the world. I’m usually trying to acquire a solid DL before I chase any LB.

Now in deeper IDP formats (start say 9 IDP’s) everything changes. Now you should still draft your offensive players and a couple of bench options first. Then I’d go after a couple of solid LB’s then a DL or two before turning my attention to the DB’s.

With the increase of passing on offense, more and more defensive backs are seeing extended playing time. This means that you have far more DB options on the waiver wire than at any other position. Rookie DB’s can be especially useful.

Why are rookie DB’s useful in fantasy? For the exact reason that Darrell Revis is not. QB’s don’t want to throw at Revis. They absolutely want to throw at the rookie. That means more chances for INT’s and more importantly, increased tackle totals. In most IDP leagues, it’s better to chase tackles than big-plays.

Once again, following NFL news is critical. Say Jamar Chaney got moved from the SLB to MLB for the Eagles. Chaney’s fantasy value would immediately jump as a 3-down MLB. On defense, a lot of these type of things fly under the radar. So paying close attention can pay off here, even more so than with offensive players.

TD-ONLY LEAGUES

I can’t believe these still exist, but I guess they do. Draft strategy here becomes pretty simple.

First, draft the studs. Nothing really changes here. Maybe a Matt Forte-type falls a bit, while a Michael Turner rises. But elite players are still elite.

Pretty soon, you should have a good QB, a good TE and all of the “stud” RB’s and WR’s are drafted. Now started targeting the “TD-only” guys. These are goal line backs (Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee, Brandon Jacobs), TD vultures (Ricky Williams, Marion Barber, LaDainian Tomlinson) and red zone receiving threats (Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, Nate Burleson).

Those lists should make it pretty clear that you want to get at least two “stud” WR’s early. Guys that can score double-digit TD’s. Because you can find some backup RB’s who will score eight or ten TD’s. You’re not going to find any WR’s later in drafts who will score double digit TD’s.

PPR (Point-Per-Reception) LEAGUES

I barely touch on PPR leagues because they are now just as common as standard leagues. All of the high-stakes, championship leagues are PPR leagues. But anyway.

Wes Welker has always been the “poster boy” for PPR leagues. He catches a ton of passes, but doesn’t necessarily pile up the yards and TD’s. RB’s who catch the ball also gain quite a bit of value. If LeSean McCoy catches 60 passes and Michael Turner catches 20 passes, that’s a 40 point difference. For the math disinclined, that’s almost 7 TD’s worth of fantasy points. Again, this isn’t to say that Michael Turner is worthless and LeSean McCoy is God. But in this format, Turner loses some value while McCoy gains some.

I’m always targeting RB’s who can catch the ball and “stud” WR’s early in PPR leagues. I want RB’s who run the ball a lot while also having the potential to catch 40+ passes. I want WR’s who have a shot at 90 catches and/or 10+ TD’s. Once those guys are off the board, I’ll worry about my QB. I might mix a “stud” TE in early if one fell to me in the Round 5 area, but other than that I would probably wait on TE. A lack of TD’s or yards can be overcome with a high volume of catches, so there’s always some decent TE’s available late in PPR leagues.

These are the leagues where you’ll here all about Danny Amendola and Davone Bess. And for good reason. You want guys who are target frequently and accumulate a lot of catches. DeSean Jackson and even Mike Wallace are going to struggle in this format. They are players who get quite a few less catches, but do quite a bit more with them.

STANDARD “FLEX” LEAGUES

Pretty simple, this is the main form of fantasy football that everybody knows. You’re starting lineup includes:

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 1 RB or WR (FLEX)
• 2 WR
• 1 TE
• 1 D/ST
• 1 K

Points are awarded for TD’s and yardage.

STANDARD “OLD SCHOOL” LEAGUES

Also very simple, these standard leagues use a 3rd WR instead of a RB/WR flex. The starting lineup includes:

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 3 WR
• 1 TE
• 1 D/ST
• 1 K

Points are awarded for TD’s and yardage.

In leagues where you are required to start 3 WR and can only start 2 RB, there is mosdef a premium on WR’s. You are going to want to get two (three if possible) in the first five or six rounds of you draft. Because you can only start 2 RB’s, you will find that RB’s will fall in the draft and be readily available in free agency. Get one “stud” RB early, then fill out the rest of your roster before just loading up with high upside RB’s on your bench later.

EVERYTHING ELSE

Even with throwing the proverbial kitchen sink at it here, there’s no way I’m going to cover every facet of every fantasy football league. Here are a few things that I haven’t discussed yet:

1. LEAGUES WITH ACQUISITION LIMITS (and/or ACQUISITION FEES) - You have to be careful in free agency with these kind of leagues. You’ll either run out of moves or pay a hefty fee if you don’t. Plan accordingly during your draft. In these type of leagues it’s advisable to draft at least a backup TE and QB. Possibly a backup D/ST if you can pick two that fit well in a committee together. Don’t make a move just to make a move. But don’t be scared early in the year to chase the usual players who come out of nowhere on the waiver wire.
2. LEAGUES WITH NO WAIVER PROCESS - Good old free-for-all leagues. These are leagues where all free agent players are always available to every team. Period. If you cut a guy, he can instantly be picked up by another team. If you’re watching a game and a RB gets injured, you can pick up his backup immediately, first come, first serve. If you’re in one of these leagues, it’s up to you to be cutthroat. If you can have your smart phone or laptop with you at all times on Sundays, you should. It’s not your fault if you were prepared, or had the spare time. Likewise, if you’ve got too much going on in your life to constantly pay attention to your fantasy league, don’t be mad when you never get any of the good free agents.
3. LEAGUES WITH DRAFT PICK TRADING - This is easy. You want as many early picks as possible. If you end up with no middle-round picks, it’s just a “Stars and Scrubs” team, same as in an auction. I’m not interested in loading up on middle round picks, I’d rather have a couple extra early round picks and just have to nail my sleepers and whatnot in the late rounds. Also, don’t be afraid to move a draft pick for a proven commodity.
4. LEAGUES WITH A LOUSY TRADE PROCESS - These are the leagues where it’s impossible to make a trade because everybody objects. You really only have three options: (A) Get in a new league. (B) Accept the fact that you can’t trade in this league. (C) Try to sneak the trade in a weird time. Like over a holiday weekend, during a blizzard or on a Friday night. Sometime when everybody isn’t going to be at their computer. It’s really your only chance.
5. WEEKLY FANTASY LEAGUES - These are more contests than fantasy leagues. Basically you get to draft team every week. When I play these formats, it’s all about the match-ups. I’m really less concerned with the players than who their playing against. Especially because these contests operate with a salary cap and the usual “studs” cost a ton. Find as many juicy match-ups as you can, then fill in the rest with your “studs” and such.
6. HIGH STAKES FANTASY LEAGUES - These can include nation leagues such as the NFFC and FFPC. Or just leagues for at least $100. These leagues are going to be very difficult. These guys know what they are doing. All of your “sleepers” are going to go ROUNDS earlier then they would in the exact same league for less dough. In these leagues you need a very specific draft plan and you can’t get rattled when it seems like every player you want is being drafted right before your pick.
7. PUNTERS AND HEAD COACHES IN FANTASY FOOTBALL - Sigh. There are some leagues that resort to such things. For me they’re just more picks at the end of the draft to keep my kicker company. Unless you’re in a league that really loves punters. In that case, pry time to find a new league.

NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT

Now for something fantasy, but not fantasy football. Do you also play fantasy baseball, basketball or hockey? Maybe even fantasy college football or hockey? DON’T FORGET ABOUT THESE TEAMS! It’s very easy to get distracted by football as the baseball season ends. While you’re worrying about what kicker to start in Week 3, you’ve got no idea who the two-start pitchers are for your fantasy baseball playoffs. PAY ATTENTION. It looks like you won’t have to worry about basketball this year. But if so, set aside separate time to deal with it. Same for hockey. Football is a more compressed fantasy sport due to the limited number of weeks and games. Other fantasy sports are more of a grind and it’s easy to be distracted by the weekly excitement of football. Don’t fall into that trap.

Well, I guess that’s about 30% of everything. But it’s all I’ve got for now. Well except for the stuff that I forgot. I’m always interested in leagues, formats, rules and whatnot that I haven’t played in or heard of. If you’ve got something like that, let me know. Comment or hit up the Twitter nonsense.

I deliberately didn’t cover eliminator games, survivor pools or weekly picks contests. Those are more gaming than fantasy and will be covered in a separate post. Degenerates unite!