Walking Through The Wire (Week 3 Edition)

Here’s the deal. I’m not a fan of the straight “Waiver Wire” column. It’s impossible to know who is available in your league and what your roster is like. Unless of course, I’m you. That’s your job. You’re not called a “fantasy owner” for nothing.

So I’m just going to walk you through my thought process as I go through the waiver wire in a couple of my leagues. I’m not telling you to do the same thing, but you should have a process. You can’t blindly cut somebody for the player who scored the most points last week. There’s a bit more to it then that. (That’s what she said!)

Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster, Denarius Moore or Eric Decker

I’ve got Arian Foster on a team that I drafted before his injury. I haven’t really caught a break and I’m 0-2. Now what? Due to my poor record, I have the first waiver claim this week. The question is, who do I pick up?

First off, this is a standard league with a RB/WR flex. No PPR. So I would probably go with Jones over McCluster. But I’m really hesitant to roll with any Chiefs right now. Whoever I pick-up will probably have to start for me in Week 3. Needless to say I’m not jumping up and down about starting Thomas Jones at San Diego.

It’s interesting to note that this league is hosted by CBS Sports. Dexter McCluster is listed as a WR and kick/punt return TD’s do NOT count for the player.

Now I also have to balance possible value for the rest of the season. Eric Decker should be in the starting lineup for the Broncos going forward. Denarius Moore already might be the best Raiders WR, but who knows if he starts when Jacoby Ford and Heyward-Bey return.

In a PPR league I would go another way. But in this case, I feel like I have to pick up Thomas Jones. I really want to go with my gut and pick up McCluster anyway. But this is a standard league and Jones looks like the best bet to score a TD. Well, if the Chiefs can ever score one.

Fred Davis or Tony Gonzalez

I wound up with Brandon Pettigrew in this league and I dropped him in Week 2 for Tony Gonzalez. The Eagles are historically bad against the TE. Too bad Kevin Boss still isn’t on the Giants. I had planned on just streaming a TE with a good match-up in Week 3. But Tony G has looked good enough to consider keeping around. Or has he? Gonzalez is really the only player on the Falcons offense right now that looks really good. Everybody else is just slightly out of sync.

I’m really trying to talk myself into Gonzalez here. And why not? He’s safer. If there’s such a thing. I’m just not sure if we’re writing off Chris Cooley too soon. If Cooley gets somewhat healthy, he could certainly cut into the number of targets Fred Davis is getting right now.

Standard league. Non-PPR. And I just lost Jamaal Charles. I feel like Davis is the “Swing For The Fences” pick here. Davis could finish as a top-7 TE, even in a standard league. Gonzalez feels like he will finish safely in the 10-to-12 range for TE’s.

There are a few decent TE options on the wire beside Davis. Not to mention that everybody else already has a decent TE. So I’m going to hang onto Gonzalez, at least for the moment. If I make any trade involving a TE, odds are other owners will value him more than Davis. Plus I do like Tony G vs. the Bucs this week.

Denarius Moore or Dexter McCluster

Again McCluster is listed as a WR. This is a standard, non-PPR league. But it’s a traditional 2 RB, 3 WR lineup. I’m pretty much set, but I have a rotating roster spot that I can burn. The waiver wire order resets every week, so there’s no point in holding on to a waiver claim priority.

So McCluster or Moore? I think I’m scared. I just considered the fact that I might rather have the Raider because I trust their offense more. Scary thought, right? I think I am going with Moore here. He was a training camp and preseason star. Not to mention he would be an excellent complement to Jacoby Ford. If McCluster somehow wound up as the starting RB for the Chiefs, he would be an amazing value at WR. But I can’t see that happening unless Thomas Jones AND LeRon McClain both go down.

I’m more likely to use Moore as a WR3 than McCluster. I already have a good team. So I’m going with Moore here. Who knows, if he blows up again in Week 3 he might have some trade value.

Marion Barber & Bernard Scott

These are two players that I’ve had on a couple of my teams. These are the types of players that I’m cutting at this point in the season. Barber is still injured and Cedric Benson looks as good and as healthy as he’s ever going to. So I’ll move on to a new lottery ticket. I’d rather have Issac Redman, Javon Ringer or Kendall Hunter. Not to mention guys like Delone Carter are still out there on waiver wires. Remember, you’re shopping for:

1. Skills/Talent
2. Opportunity

You’re not going to find a player with both. If there is a player available with an opportunity (ie: a role on offense) grab him first. After that grab the most talented players with the easiest path to opportunity.

Eric Decker, Roy Helu or DeMarco Murray

Now we’re in a PPR league with a RB/WR flex. In this format, I’m picking up Eric Decker first. When Dez Bryant went down last week I had to start Jacoby Jones. I’d certainly rather have Decker than Jones, especially since it looks like Kevin Walter will return in Week 3.

But Murray or Helu? That’s a pretty good one. I’ve got a theory here, but with very little empirical evidence. Do you care? I hope not. This is fantasy football, not CSI.

1. Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett HATES Tashard Choice. And Choice hasn’t helped himself. He’s been a decent receiver but he’s not looked good running the football. The Cowboys drafted DeMarco Murray for a reason. Felix Jones hasn’t looked great (albeit against two pretty good run defenses) so far this season. Murray could get a shot at a significant role in the Cowboys offense.
2. And then there’s Evil Running Back Scientist Mike Shanahan. This job looks like it’s all Tim Hightower’s right now, correct? That will change at some point. Hightower has reminded everybody that he can only get what’s blocked for him. And he likes to fumble. Roy Helu looked very good in Week 2, and at the end of the preseason. So what gives? Ryan Torain. Yep. Him. Again. If Hightower were to be injured, I think it would be Torain who got his carries while Helu remains in a complementary role. Could Torain then get hurt? Of course, he probably will. Doesn’t every running back these days?

Quite simply I feel that Helu is two injuries away from real fantasy relevance. Murray is only one injury away and it may have already happened. Stay tuned.

Yeah, I know that nothing is more boring than listening to a guy talk about his fantasy teams. But I think a lot of owners will have similar decisions about similar players this week. You’re trying to figure out if either Eric Decker or Denarius Moore is this year’s Steve Johnson. And they very well could be. Or you could be cutting them as soon as the bye weeks hit. Therein, as they say, lies the rub.

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