Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Fantasy Baseball - Waiver Wire Wesley Snipes

It's an odd reference but remember, before he was in jail, before he was Blade, before he knew Billy Ho couldn't jump, he was Willie Mays Hayes. The base-stealing machine out of nowhere. We're not primarily concerned with steals, any production is good production. We're going to look at a few guys who either went very late in drafts or were undrafted for the most part. What we want to know is:
  • How good have they really been so far?
  • Will they be the starter all year, barring injury?
  • What is their real value?
  • Who might you be able to get back in a trade for them?
  • Can they really keep this up?

Justin Upton - OF - Arizona Diamondbacks - .326 22 R 6 HR 19 RBI 0 SB
Yeah, I started with an easy one. I absolutely love this kid and expect numbers just like his brother BJ. He'll be a fixture in the starting lineup for years and he is just scratching the surface of his potential. The steals will come and he will develop more power as he gets older. Great keeper league guy and he'll be a high fantasy pick next year. I don't think I would trade or drop him unless something absolutely ridiculous was available. His average might drop slightly but if he gets a few steals it's a wash. If you can trade for this guy, go do it now.

Carlos Quentin - OF - Chicago White Sox - .288 26 R 9 HR 29 RBI 3 SB
Early on he was just keeping the spot warm for Jerry Owens. I really don't think that is the case anymore. He's proving to be an excellent source for HR and RBI. He is one of the few White Sox really doing anything offensively this year. I could see him only batting around .250-.260 but 30 HR, 90 RBI and 10 SB is very realistic. His upside is even higher. That being said, if you can get a Justin Upton, Jason Bay, Matt Kemp or something in that ballpark, I'd do it. I just think the White Sox implode at some point and it will ruin a lot of their players' value.

Nate McLouth - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates - .307 31 R 9 HR 29 RBI 3 SB
Now do those numbers seem familiar or what? To be honest, I like McLouth better. I don't think he has the power that he's showing now but I think he'll end up with 20 SB, 100 RBI and bat over .290 so that works for me even with only 20 HR. He's gotten a couple of nights off recently but he's not going anywhere. He'd be a good guy to put up on the block if you need pitching help because he does some of everything and owners are always interested in those guys.

Xavier Nady - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates - .340 22 R 5 HR 34 RBI 1 SB
This guy. Don't call it a comeback. Nady has been kicking around for a hot minute because it just never all clicked for him. Dude must have switched to the Clapper or something because he's been scorching hot. BUT. He's not going to steal bases. 5 SB, tops. He's not going to hit HR, 20 at the absolute most. And do you really think that he's going to bat .340 for the season? He might have 100 RBI in his future this year but I feel that is his main value. So unless you need RBI help I would be trying to sell on Nady right now. Find a team with a poor AVG and fewer RBI and try to trade for a more proven commodity.

Geovany Soto - C - Chicago Cubs - .315 16 R 6 HR 26 RBI 0 SB
Finally, a non-outfielder! And he's a catcher! Do you realize how hard it is to find a good, reliable catcher for fantasy baseball? There's usually about 7-8 of them. So anytime you find a new one, it's a double bonus. It looks like the Cubbies are gonna score some runs this year and Soto will be there for a lot of them. He'll get a few days off here and there but I think his numbers are right on pace for where they'll end up. He can hit .300 with 25 HR and 100 RBI. Take that every day of the week. Only trade or drop him for an upgrade at catcher, which means on of the top 5 catchers period.

Kevin Youkilis - 1B/3B - Boston Red Sox - .322 27 R 8 HR 30 RBI 2 SB
Alright let's get some things straight. Youkilis is on this list because his average draft position was 178 in ESPN Fantasy Drafts. That's roughly a 17th round pick. Then look at his numbers. Trust Billy Beane. If you've ever ready Moneyball (if you haven't) you know that Beane was obsessed with acquiring Youkilis. The Greek God of Hitting, he called him. I always thought that he hit for average and played good defense and offered little else. In fact I had him in 2 leagues this year and sold high on him after 2 weeks. Oops. He's a fixture in the starting lineup and will have at least 90 RBI and bat .300. But I think his power numbers are inflated right now and the stolen bases are an aberration. If you can get somebody to toss you say Miguel Cabrera or something that highly valued, do it. Or the other strategy is find a team owner who is a Red Sox fan and sell really high on Youkilis. Or find an owner who is a Yankee fan and get him to sell low on Youkilis.

Conor Jackson - 1B - Arizona Diamondbacks - .325 27 R 5 HR 30 RBI 3 SB
He's getting it done. The 1B job is his and he was a highly touted prospect. The kid can hit and I would look for .300 with 100+ RBI. He doesn't have a ton of power but can steal a few bases. Basically he's above-average for a 1B for SB but below-average for power. He's nice guy to hang onto, especially given Arizona's performance so far this season. That being said, if you can use Jackson as the centerpiece to get a top of the line pitcher or a big power hitting 1B like Ryan Howard I would do it.

Carlos Gomez - OF - Minnesota Twins - .268 21 R 2 HR 13 RBI 16 SB
Here's a guy that's all over the place. He started out the season on fire, then went into a huge slump and was on the verge of losing his job. Then he hits for the cycle. He's also been banged up a bit injury wise. He's great for SB and I would rather have Gomez than Michael Bourn. Still, he would be a sell-high guy for me right now. Unless you need the steals.

Ryan Church - OF - New York Mets - .319 28 R 7 HR 26 RBI 1 SB
Those stats look pretty good don't they? I just don't trust Church yet for some reason. I don't think he can play any better than he is right now. I don't see him hitting .300 and if he slumps he might lose his job, at least for a hot minute. If you can find a Mets fan in love with Church or you can get a more established guy with similar numbers I would do it.


We'll get to some more of these guys later. If you didn't notice I don't really waste too much time talking about players I don't like. But I obviously haven't mentioned everybody I like so if I missed somebody, I just might not have gotten that far yet.

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