An Uncapped Year In The NFL

If you have no idea about the current NFL labor situation read this before continuing any further or this will just be nonsense to you. (Courtesy of The Mile High Report)

A great primer for this post would be this article written by Michael Lombardi for SI.com. Within the article, Lombardi discusses how NFL teams should prepare for an uncapped year in 2010.

Lombardi basically states that due to the new restrictions there will be very few quality free agents available in 2010. Therefore teams should re-sign their own players ASAP and stockpile draft picks. There definitely is a great deal of logic to that approach. In fact, that is most likely the approach that 25-30 of the 32 NFL teams will take.

Let's be honest here. It's not like there have been oodles of quality free agents available the past few off-seasons. That's why we've seen an increased number of trades. Both of the trends are likely to continue in the future. But the possibility of an uncapped year looms and player agents are salivating. There will be at least a couple of very good players who elect not to re-sign with their current teams in order to hit the open (and uncapped market). Not that it doesn't happen currently but it should happen a bit more especially given the new service requirements necessary to become a free agent.

Remember there will also be no salary floor any longer. So you will have a few teams who will go for the Florida Marlins approach. They'll stockpile young talent and acquire a couple of short-term rentals if they're playing well. They won't re-sign their own players to big money deals until they have a new stadium. The Buffalo Bills immediately jump out at me as a team that would fit this profile.

I don't think that we will see a situation where a team goes out and spends $300 million to acquire 2 starters at every position. But teams with cash will now have the luxury of paying top dollar to multiple players at the same position. This allows you to have two #1 WRs, two #1 CBs, two #1 RBs and so on and so forth. It will also allow teams to sign higher priced role players they may not have been able to sign before. A high-revenue team can now spend $3 million on wedge-buster or $3.5 million for a punt returner. This is where teams will gain an edge.

So who's going to go for broke? As I stated earlier, most teams will concentrate on developing young talent and re-signing their own players for reasonable prices. But you can be sure that a couple of owners will go all Steinbrenner on us in an effort to buy a title. So who will the guilty parties be?

1. Dallas Cowboys. They have a new stadium opening in 2009. They have been awarded the Super Bowl in 2011. Jerry Jones is a very wealthy man and has never been afraid to spend money to win. This is the perfect storm right here. Check out how much it will cost to go to a Cowboys game. They will have a decent young core of players, a rich and willing owner and a spanking new stadium that will produce endless streams of revenue. You know that friend of yours who is an obnoxious Cowboys fan? Well, in a couple of years he's going to make your "won't shut up about all Boston sports teams" friend look like a quiet saint.
2. Washington Redskins. Owner Daniel Snyder has more money than Jerry Jones and has never been afraid to spend it. In fact, until recently the Redskins never really acknowledged that there was a salary cap until it came time to cut players and restructure contracts so that they could sign more players. The Redskins have one of the highest revenue producing stadiums in the league and have been among the league leaders in revenue since Snyder bought the team. The thought of Snyder and Jerry Jones going to a bidding war over players might be what ultimately gets the owners back to the negotiating table with the players.
3. Seattle Seahawks. That one surprised you a bit didn't it? Owner Paul Allen is the richest owner in the NFL. To the tune of over $20 billion. Not bad eh? The Seahawks got a new stadium in 2002 and have consistently spent money on free agents to try to get that elusive Super Bowl win. The Seattle fans are very passionate and the possible loss of the Supersonics will leave the Seahawks and the Mariners as the only games in town.
   
4. New England Patriots. It's not like the Patriots have been "Skimp Biggie" in the past decade but they could still pick up the pace. Owner Robert Kraft is very well off in the financial department. The Patriots have been winners all decade which has led to excellent revenue both from their fairly new stadium and merchandising. Couple that with the fact that most of the other big spenders will be in the NFC and Tom Brady will be in his mid-30's. This might be the last shot to buy another title or two before Tom Terrific hangs em up.
   
5. New York Giants/New York Jets. The New York teams are always at an advantage. Both teams have very wealthy owners and the teams are set to open an new stadium in, you guessed it, 2010. The Jets easily spent over $100 million this summer alone and the Giants have been very proactive in recent years on the free agent market. The Giants will also be trapped in the same division as the Cowboys and Redskins and the Jets will be stuck battling the Patriots in their division every year. So it's not like they'll need a lot of motivation to try to go the extra mile.
6. Houston Texans. Now that one made you look. Owner Robert McNair is loaded and Reliant Stadium is barely five years old. The Houston fans have always supported the franchise, despite never having sniffed the playoffs. The Texans have tried to spend money in free agency but just seem to end up wasting it. Plus there will be a palpable need to compete with the Cowboys to be Texas' Team. Years of being stuck behind Peyton Manning and the Colts might just be what sends them over the spending edge.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Are you really surprised? The Bucs and Jon Gruden in general have always loved their veteran players. The Glazer family, who own the team, are among the wealthiest owners in the NFL and have never hesitated to spend to win. Their stadium isn't even a decade old and they've always had strong fan support. This will also give Jon Gruden the opportunity to buy every QB over 35 who's on the market.

If your team's not on the list, don't panic. Very rarely does buying a championship actually work. The irony lost in all of this is the lack of a salary floor in an uncapped year. One team could have a $200 million payroll and another could have a $10 million payroll. The irony is that at the end of the day the total amount of the salaries paid to the players will actually increase. The number of large deals given out may ultimately decrease, but the value of these top end deals will be mind boggling. It's very possible that 2010 will see the NFL's first $200 million man. How is this going to help the owners save money?